Abubuwan da ake iya samu a kasuwannin hada-hadar hannayen jari na duniya zasu kasance kusa da lambobi biyu idan ana mutunta matakan girma da aka nuna a cikin rahotonnin hukuma. Kodayake a cikin shekara jerin alamomi za su bayyana waɗanda za su ba da sigina sama da ɗaya don buɗewa ko kwance matsayi a cikin kasuwannin kuɗi. Ala kulli halin, shekara mai zuwa tana da sarkakiya sosai don bukatun ƙanana da matsakaitan masu saka jari waɗanda zasu sami damar daidaita su bada shawarwari don sanya ayyukanka su zama masu fa'ida a kasuwannin daidaito.
Kasuwannin hannayen jari na duniya suna farawa daga ɗayan manyan matakai a cikin shekaru biyar da suka gabata. Tare da sake dubawa na 86%, 32% da 22% a cikin Dow Jones, Eurostoxx da Ibex 35, bi da bi. Yanzu tambaya ita ce a san ko za a iya ci gaba da wannan yanayin yayin wannan atisayen ko kuma akasin haka, akasin haka, za a shigar da gyare-gyare a cikin benen parquet. A cikin kowane hali, za a sami tabbatattun sigogi waɗanda za su ƙayyade haɓakarta cikin watanni goma sha biyu masu zuwa. Shin kuna son sanin wanne ne mafi mahimmanci?
A kowane yanayi, yana da matukar mahimmanci a cikin wannan sabuwar shekara su ɗora maka a matsayin dabarun saka jari na kiyaye babban birnin ku saka hannun jari sama da sauran ƙididdigar fasaha kuma watakila ma asali. Ya kamata ku buɗe wa sababbin kadarorin kuɗi idan ba ku son yin baya da sauran masu saka hannun jari. Saboda tabbas akwai rayuka sama da kasuwar hada-hadar kuma akwai kasuwanni na karafa masu daraja, albarkatun kasa ko madadin saka hannun jari don nuna wannan yanayin da za'a iya sanyawa a cikin shekara mai zuwa wanda ke gab da farawa.
Makullin: ci gaban tattalin arzikin duniya
Hasashen na wannan shekara zai kasance ɗayan injiniyoyin da ke ƙarfafa ko juyar da canjin kasuwar hannun jari, gwargwadon gyaran da ake yi a cikin watanni masu zuwa. A wannan ma'anar, sabon rahoto na Asusun Kuɗi na Duniya (IMF) ya daga hasashen ci gaban duniya zuwa 3,7%. Duk da yake daga Kungiyar Hadin gwiwar Tattalin Arziki da Ci Gabanta tana kula da layin ci gaba ɗaya don tattalin arzikin ƙasa. Kodayake nuna cewa farfadowar ba ta da karfi sosai.
A gefe guda, sashen nazarin na Bankinter tana gargadin cewa tattalin arzikin ya tsunduma cikin wani ci gaban da za a iya tsawaita. Idan aka fuskance su da wannan yanayin, suna goyon bayan daidaito a matsayin kayan aikin saka jari mafi riba. Musamman, sun sanya maƙasudin Ibex 35 a kusan maki 11.000, 9% sama da matakan yanzu. Kodayake tabbas akwai shakku da yawa da dole ne a warware su daga yanzu. Musamman waɗanda aka tsara don ƙasashen yankin Euro. A kowane hali, zai kasance hanya mai matukar rikitarwa ta kasuwar hannun jari, fiye da yadda ta gabata a shekarun baya.
Tsammani na kasuwanci
Sakamakon da kamfanonin da aka lissafa suka gabatar a kowane kwata zai zama sashin mahimmancin mahimmanci don kimanta farashin hannun jari. Idan babu sakamakon kwata na huɗu, da ribar kamfanin Lissafin akan Ibex 35 ya girma a 2018 da kusan 13%. Tare da raguwa idan aka kwatanta da kwata na farko inda aikin tattalin arziki ya tashi zuwa 20%. Koyaya, daya daga cikin damuwar masu saka jari ya ta'allaka ne kan yadda za a sauya tasirin matsalar ta Catalan zuwa asusun kamfanonin a cikin watanni masu zuwa. Zuwa ga cewa zai kasance ɗayan maɓallan don daidaita hanyar da mai zaɓin zaɓin zai ɗauka.
A kowane hali, alamun farko sun riga sun nuna game da wani raguwa a cikin tattalin arzikin Sifen da kuma faɗaɗawa a cikin ƙasashen duniya. Har zuwa ma'anar cewa tana iya samar da cewa ribar kamfanonin bai kai na waɗannan shekarun ba. Kuma wannan ana iya canza shi zuwa farashin hannun jari ana gyara shi zuwa mafi girma ko ƙarami. Lamarin da zai iya sa kasuwannin hannun jari na ƙasa da ƙasa su ragu sosai. Wannan yana daga cikin haɗarin da zaku bijiro da kanku idan za ku zaɓi daidaito a cikin watanni masu zuwa. Yana iya zama lokacin da ya dace gyara kayan jarin ku. Dukansu a cikin kasuwar hannayen jari da sauran samfuran kuɗi, kamar kuɗaɗen saka hannun jari.
Rage matsalolin kuɗi
Manufofin kudi a bangarorin biyu na tekun Atlantika na daya daga cikin mabuɗan cigaban kasuwar hada-hadar hannayen jari a shekarar 2019. Koyaya, suna nuna wasu banbancin ra'ayi tsakanin bangarorin tattalin arzikin biyu. A gefe guda, Babban Asusun Tarayyar Amurka ya yanke shawarar kawo ƙarshen shekara tare da ƙimar riba sama da 1%, bayan ta haɓaka su da kwata kwata. Wannan shine karo na hudu akan farashin kudi tunda ya canza dabarun tattalin arzikin sa. Ga wannan sabuwar shekara, tsarin janyewar kara kuzari, kodayake zai kasance a hankali kamar yadda Fed ya nace. Wannan shawarar ba ta zama hujja ba don Dow Jones ya tashi 25% a cikin shekarar da ta gabata kuma ya zauna a kowane lokaci.
A Tarayyar Turai, akasin haka, hoton ya ɗan bambanta lokacin da farashin kudi aƙalla, a 0%. Farawa a watan Janairu, Babban Bankin Turai zai yanke rabin sayen bashin gwamnati da na masu zaman kansu wanda aka ƙaddamar don haɓaka farfadowar tattalin arziki a yankin Euro. Kasancewa kasuwannin hada-hadar hannayen jari na Turai sun yaba kusan kashi 30% a cikin shekaru biyar da suka gabata. Koyaya, a cikin 2019 za a sami sabon yanayi saboda niyyar hukumar kula da Turai don dakatar da haɓaka kasuwannin kuɗi. Labaran da basu samu karbuwa ba daga kanana da matsakaitan masu saka jari.
Juyin farashin mai
Wani mai da hankali inda ya kamata a biya hankali shine akan farashin danyen mai. Duk wani muhimmin juzu'i na sama ko ƙasa zai haifar da canje-canje kwatsam a farashin ƙididdigar hannun jari. A cikin yanayi na farko saboda zai haifar da rikice-rikice na hauhawar farashi a cikin manyan ƙasashen duniya. Yayinda idan tayi kasuwanci a ƙasa da $ 40 - kamar yadda ya faru shekara ɗaya da rabi da suka wuce - zai haifar da gurɓata a cikin ƙasashen da ke da alaƙa da wannan kadarar kuɗi. A kowane hali, farashin kowace ganga ya kai dala 65, tare da ƙaruwar shekara 24%. Hasashen ya nuna danyen mai ya tashi kusan 10% a wannan shekara, a cewar sabon rahoton Goldman Sachs.
Abinda ya dace da wannan sabuwar shekara shine cewa yanayin baƙar zinariya ya sake bayyana. Wannan wani abu ne wanda zai iya hukunta kyakkyawan ɓangare na kasuwannin kuɗi. Kodayake akasin haka, yana iya zama lokaci mai kyau don ɗaukar matsayi a cikin kamfanonin da aka lissafa waɗanda ke da nasaba da wannan mahimmin kadarar kuɗin. A gefe guda, gaskiya ne cewa zaka iya cutar da tattalin arziki a duniya yana bunkasa kamar yadda ya zuwa yanzu. Wannan wani hadari ne wanda yake da alaƙa da shigowar sabuwar shekara, kamar yadda yawancin masu nazarin harkokin kuɗi suka yarda.
Zaɓuɓɓuka a Italiya da Jamus?
Har ila yau, yanayin siyasa zai iya yanke hukunci don daidaito su ɗauki hanya ɗaya ko wata a cikin watanni masu zuwa. A wannan ma'anar, zaɓen da ka iya faruwa a cikin Italiya a cikin watanni goma sha biyu masu zuwa zai zama mai mahimmanci. Ba za a iya mantawa da cewa ƙasar transalpine ita ce ta uku mafi karfin tattalin arziki a Tarayyar Turai, sai a baya Jamus da Faransa. Kuma na takwas a duniya tare da Babban Samfurin Gida na $ 1.850.735. Duk wani sakamakon da zai haifar da karin rashin zaman lafiya don kafa gwamnati zai haifar da da mai ido a kasuwannin hada-hadar kudi, musamman a kasuwar hada-hadar hannayen jari.
A gefe guda kuma, kasuwar hada-hadar hannayen jari za ta jira a tattaunawar tsakanin bangarorin biyu masu rinjaye (CDU da SPD) don ci gaba da kasancewa a cikin gwamnati a Jamus. Saboda in ba haka ba zai kasance ga halaka ga sabon zaɓe a cikin bazara. Tare da siginar rashin kwanciyar hankali a kasuwannin kuɗi saboda batutuwan da suka fi gaggawa a cikin EU na iya shanyewa. Wannan jin daɗin ya ɗauke shi da kunya Jamusanci DAX an bar kusan 1% a cikin farashin sa a cikin watan jiya. Wanda dole ne a ƙara ƙarfin ɓangarorin da aka sani da populists.
Janye tallafi a cikin EU
Wani mahimmin mahimmanci na musamman shi ne wanda ke nuni da janyewar lamura a cikin Tarayyar Turai kuma abin da zai faru a wannan shekara. Wannan gaskiyar na iya zama low duka ga jaka tunda gajerun mukamai ana iya sanya su a fili akan masu siye. A kowane hali, zai iya kasancewa wani ɓangaren ne wanda za a lasafta shi a shekara mai zuwa kuma ba daidai ba a ƙarƙashin ƙaramin ƙarfi game da kimar farashin hannun jari.
Ba abin mamaki bane, zai zama kuɗi da yawa waɗanda ke ƙaura daga kasuwannin jari don neman wasu damar kasuwanci. Dukansu a cikin tsayayyen kudin shiga da kuma cikin wannan da aka ɗauka azaman madadin saka jari. Har zuwa ma'anar cewa tana iya yin alama ta canjin kasuwar hannun jari a cikin 2019. Labaran da ba a samun karbuwa sosai daga kanana da matsakaitan masu saka jari.