Enye yezimpahla zezezimali esezivuselelwe kuphothifoliyo yokutshala imali kusukela ngoMashi uwoyela. Kuze kube manje kulezi zinsuku ikusasa lale nto eluhlaza lihweba ngamazinga aphakathi kwamadola angama-30 kuye kwangama-33 umphongolo. Akunakuphikwa ukuthi kusukela manje kuqhubeke, uma intengo iqale ukunyuka okuya phezulu, ingaqala idlule isithiyo enayo ku- $ 35. Ukuze kusukela ngaleso sikhathi kuqhubeke, kungasebenza njengokumelana. Kulokho okungathathwa njengesinye sezimo ezingakhuliswa kusukela manje kuqhubeke kule mpahla yezezimali ebalulekile.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, futhi njengesinye isimo esingavela ku-oyela ongahluziwe, uma, ngokuphambene nalokho, ukunyakaza okuphansi okwaqala ekupheleni kwale kota yokuqala yonyaka kuqhubeka, akunakuphikwa ukuthi ekugcineni umgqomo . Ukuba yisimo sokusebenza ngo-oyela ongahluziwe ngoba amasu okutshala imali azoba yinkimbinkimbi ukwenza imali itholakale kulokhu okusetshenzisiwe kwamukelwa kabanzi ngabatshalizimali. Ngakho-ke, akungabazeki ukuthi eyakhe fNgokuzayo kuzoba nzima kakhulu ukusebenza ngokuhamba kwayo, okungenani kulokho okubhekise esikhathini esiphakathi futhi ikakhulukazi esifushane. Alikho igumbi lephutha, ngoba amandla alo okuvuka noma okuvuka angaba ngaphezu kokubongwa kulesi simo esingavela manje.
Okungabaluleki kangako iqiniso lokuthi ukuntengantenga kwentengo kawoyela ongahluziwe kuyiqiniso nokuthi kumele siziqaphele lezi zinsuku. Ngoba empeleni, ingakhuphuka futhi iye kolunye uhlangothi ilula ngokwedlulele ngakho-ke kunama-euro amaningi asengozini ekusebenzeni kwayo. Ngokushintshashintsha kwentengo yayo okuphakeme kakhulu kunezinye izimpahla zezezimali ezinokubaluleka okukhethekile, njengokuthengwa nokuthengiswa kwamasheya emakethe yamasheya. Kuze kube seqophelweni lokuthi imakethe kawoyela ibekelwe kuphela abatshalizimali abahlinzeka ngemfundo ethe xaxa ekusebenzeni kwabo. Futhi akuwona wonke umuntu onalesi sifo esibaluleke kakhulu emhlabeni wokutshala imali.
I-Petroleum, iWest Texas Intermediate
Lezi yizikhathi eziyinqaba ngempela zokutshala imali ku-oyela. Njengokungathi ama-gymnastics emakethe abengenele, intengo ye-US crude - noma okungenani inkontileka yekusasa lenyanga yokuqala - yayimbi ngo-Ephreli, hhayi ngemali encane. Ngezansi, iWest Texas Intermediate ithengise ngaphansi kwama-dollar ayi-37 umphongolo. Ngeshwa, uma ungumtshalizimali okudayisa, kunemikhawulo yokuthi ungazuza kanjani kulokhu. Awukwazi ukuvela ezindaweni zokugcina izinto eCushing, e-Oklahoma, bese ukhokhelwa u- $ 37 umgqomo ukuze ulayishe iloli lakho ngamafutha, bese ulahla ngokushesha imiphongolo eceleni komgwaqo njengoba ushayela ekhaya nemali oyiholayo.
Uma ungumtshali-zimali wesikhungo noma umthengisi kawoyela wezimboni onamandla okugcina nokuthutha, ungagcina imali enqwabelene ngamanani wanamuhla, uyithengise ezimakethe zesikhathi esizayo ezinyangeni ezimbalwa, bese wenza imali. Kepha abanye bethu kufanele bathole ubuciko obuthe xaxa ekutheni sitshala kanjani uwoyela. Namuhla sizobheka okumele ukwenze nokungafanele ukwenze ukukukhombisa ukuthi ungatshala kanjani uwoyela ngendlela efanele.
Musa ukuthenga ama-ETF kawoyela
Vele, isu elihle lokutshala imali akuyona ukuthenga i-ETF kawoyela ngaphandle kokwazi ukuthi uthengani. Ngalo mqondo, kufanele kugcizelelwe ukuthi i-United States Oil Fund (USO, $ 2,57) ingaba umqondo wokutshalwa kwezimali omubi kunayo yonke emlandweni wezezimali. Futhi asikwazi ukukhohlwa ukuthi leli thuluzi elikhethekile lokutshala imali belingakhiwe kabi ngendlela ebukeka ngayo kusukela ekuqaleni.
Awukwazi ukuthenga nokubamba izinto eziningi, ngaphandle kokumbalwa, njengegolide nezinsimbi eziyigugu. Imvamisa ayisebenzi, ngakho-ke noma ngubani ofuna ukuba nobhasikidi wemikhiqizo uzokwenza kanjalo ngemakethe yesikhathi esizayo. Kepha inkontileka yesikhathi esizayo yehluke kakhulu kunesitoko.
Okokuqala, inkontileka yesikhathi esizayo inedethi yokuphela kwesikhathi eqondile. Igunya le-USO bekuwukuthenga nje inkontileka yakusasa kawoyela omuncu ongahluziwe wenyanga edlule bese ngiyivuselela ngokungapheli lapho isiphelile. Ngakho-ke, ngokwesibonelo, ubuzobamba ikusasa likaMeyi kuze kube ukuphela, bese udlulela phambili kuJuni.
Kukhona inkinga enkulu ngalokho. Uwoyela ongahluziwe ubulokhu uthengisa "indawo" eminyakeni eyishumi edlule. Lapho imakethe "ibala", izinkontileka zesikhathi eside ziphakeme kunezo zesikhashana. Uma lokho kudida, cabanga ngesimo samafutha namuhla. Akekho umuntu ofuna uwoyela namuhla ngoba kunesidingo esincane sokuphela kwawo. Ngakho-ke, amanani aphansi (noma ngisho amabi).
Kepha kunesidingo sikawoyela ngokuzayo, ngakho-ke amanani asephezulu uma ufuna ukuthi ahanjiswe ezinyangeni eziyisithupha noma kunjalo.
Izinkontileka ezibiza kakhulu
Endabeni ye-USO, lesi sikhwama besilokhu sigingqika njalo kwizinkontileka ezibiza kakhulu, kuphela ukuzidayisa njengoba sezisondele ekuvuthweni. Ngamanye amagama, emakethe yemali, i-USO izoklanywa inyanga nenyanga, yenze imali encane lapho amanani kawoyela enyuka futhi ilahlekelwe ngaphezulu lapho amanani ehla.
I-USO isivele kudingeke ukuthi iguqule igunya layo lokutshala imali amahlandla ambalwa muva nje ukulungisa lokhu kuphazamiseka, isikhathi ngasinye kunweba ukuvezwa kwenkontileka yayo iye phambili. Lezi yizinyathelo eziqonde ngqo, kepha kunzima ukuncoma isikhwama esigcina sishintsha isu laso lokutshala imali njalo ezinsukwini ezimbalwa.
Uma uphikelela ekudlaleni imakethe kawoyela nge-ETFs, cabanga ngezinyanga eziyi-12 ze-United States Oil Fund (USL, $ 10,35). Sabalalisa iphothifoliyo yakho ngokulinganayo ezinyangeni eziyi-12 ezizayo zezinkontileka zesikhathi esizayo. Ayikubalekeli ngokuphelele ukukhishwa kwemali, kepha ayinikelwa ngokuphelele ngayo njengoba kwenziwa yi-USO. Kuze kube manje kulo nyaka, i-USL ilahlekelwe ngama-55% yalahlekelwa yi-80% ku-USO.
Imakethe eya eSaudi Arabia naseRussia
Izwe laseMelika ngeke liyeke ukumpompa uwoyela ngokuphelele futhi lizoyeka ukuthengisa eSaudi Arabia naseRussia. Lokho ngeke kwenzeke. Kepha kuzoba ne-jolt, futhi kuyenzeka vele. I-Whiting Petroleum (WLL) yafaka izicelo zokuqothuka ngo-Ephreli 1, kanti iDiamond Offshore yakwenza lokho ngo-Ephreli 27. Ngeke babe ngabokugcina. Iningi lamasheya enza kabi kakhulu kule minyaka eyi-11 edlule abe semkhakheni wokuhlola amandla nokukhiqiza. Izinqolobane eziningi zikawoyela negesi zingabhekana nesiphetho esifana neWhiting neDiamond Offshore.
Uma ufuna ukuqagela, kunjalo, kwenze. Ukudutshulwa enyangeni kungaba ukuhamba okulungile uma uthi uzama ukuthola ukuthi ungasitshala kanjani isheke lakho lokuvuselela. Vele uqiniseke ukuthi ubeka engcupheni imali ongakwazi ukulahlekelwa yiyo.
Gxila kwikhwalithi 'naseziqongweni'
Zingahle zingasikiseli ekuqaleni, kepha amasu wokutshala imali ahlanganisiwe kungenzeka ukuthi ukubheja kwakho okuhle kakhulu ukuthola kabusha kwesikhathi eside kuzintengo zamandla. Lezi ziqiwi zamandla amakhulu zinamandla wezezimali nokufinyelela ezinhlamvwini zokusinda kwisomiso samandla eside. Ubunzima bangempela bezezimali abubonakali maduzane. Noma kunjalo, isitoko sithengisa ngamakhulu eminyaka eyishumi.
Cabanga nge-Exxon Mobil (XOM, $ 43.94). Amasheya adayisa namuhla ngamanani aqale ukubonwa ngonyaka ka-2000 futhi akhipha isamba esingu-8.0%. Ngokuya ngokuthi amanani entengo kagesi ahlala ebuthakathaka kangakanani, abakwa-Exxon bangakhetha ukwehlisa isabelo saso esikhathini esithile eminyakeni embalwa ezayo. Angeke sikwenze lokho. Kepha uma uthenga isitoko ngamanani aqale ukubonwa eminyakeni engama-20 eyedlule, mhlawumbe ingozi okufanele uyithathe.
Enye yalezi zinkampani, i-DRM (i-CVX, $ 89.71) isesimweni sezezimali esingcono kancane kune-Exxon futhi mancane amathuba okuthi iyinciphise.
Ukumiswa ezimakethe
Imakethe kawoyela ingabukeka njengeshelufu lesitolo sedola, kepha lokho akusho ukuthi abatshalizimali kufanele bathenge imiphongolo sengathi bangamaswidi e-Easter ngaphandle kwesizini. Amanani entengo aphansi avuse intshisekelo yamabhontshisi kawoyela, asethole izeluleko zokuthi ungabheja kanjani ongahluziwe. Ngokuvamile bebengakwenza lokhu ngezimali zokushintshisana nezitoko zenkampani kawoyela, ngoba ukuthenga uwoyela wangempela kuyabiza futhi kuyinkimbinkimbi.
Kepha ochwepheshe bathi manje singesinye sezikhathi eziyingozi kakhulu sokutshala imali ku-oyela, ngenxa yesiyaluyalu esingakaze sibonwe emakethe ebangelwe yinkinga ye-coronavirus kanye nokugcwala ngokweqile.
I-Google isesha amagama anjengokuthi "ungatshala kanjani uwoyela" nokuthi "ungathenga kanjani amasheya kawoyela" enyuke ngoMsombuluko lapho amanani entengo angahluziwe e-US eqala ukuba ngawabi okokuqala ngqa emlandweni, umcimbi oyingqophamlando okhombisa ukuthi abathengisi bayakhokha ukuze kususwe izinto .
Umqondo wokukhokhelwa ukugcina umphongolo kawoyela ungazwakala uheha kubatshali zimali abajwayelekile. Kepha abadayisi empeleni bebechitha izinkontileka zesikhathi esizayo, noma amadili okuthola imiphongolo kawoyela ezofika ngoMeyi. Inkontileka ejwayelekile ngeyemigqomo eyi-1.000 42, ngayinye equkethe amalitha ka-XNUMX kawoyela.
Izinkontileka zesikhathi esizayo
Lokho kusho ukuthi umuntu obambe inkontileka yesikhathi esizayo ngentengo engeyinhle ngoMsombuluko kulindeleke ukuthi adonse leyo migqomo eyi-1.000 XNUMX ayikhiphe endaweni yokugcina, njengehabhu elikhulu eCushing, e-Oklahoma. Uma bengakwazi, ngabe basalokhu bekhona ngemali yentengo kawoyela kanye nenzalo noma ezinye izinhlawulo ezibekwe ngumthengisi wabo, kusho umhwebi wezimpahla.
Ukugwema ukugcina amalitha angama-42 ongahluziwe eduze komshini wabo wokugunda utshani, abatshalizimali bansuku zonke bangathenga amasheya esikhwameni esidayiswa ngokushintshisana, noma i-ETF, elandela amanani kawoyela. Isibonelo esithandwayo yi-United States Petroleum Fund, eboshelwe entengo yenkontileka yesikhathi esizayo yaseWest Texas Intermediate crude future.
Enye indlela yokutshala imali ku-oyela ukuthenga amasheya ezinkampanini zikawoyela. Ochwepheshe bathi ukubheja okuphephe kakhulu ngabadlali abakhulu abanjengo-Exxon noma i-DRM, abasesikhundleni esingcono kunabaningi ukumelana nesiphepho samanje.
Kepha lezo zenzo zinezingozi zazo uqobo, njengokushintsha okukhulayo kubheke ezimotweni zikagesi nakwezinye izingqalasizinda ezilungele imvelo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, akwaziwa ukuthi ukwehla kwentengo kuzophela nini, njengoba ukuvalwa okuhlobene ne-coronavirus kugcina ukufunwa kukawoyela kuphansi.
Izabelo ngaphakathi emkhakheni
Ezikhathini zezinxushunxushu zemakethe, iqembu elilodwa lamasheya abatshalizimali abangathembela kuwo ekukhuleni kwemali engenayo ethembekile yi-Dividend Aristocrats - iqembu lezinkampani ezikhiqize okungenani iminyaka engama-25 elandelanayo yokwenyuka kwezabelo.
Ngesikhathi sama-2010, lezi zitoko ezisezingeni eliphakeme zalinganiselwa ku-14,75% ngonyaka, zedlula i-S & P 500 ngamaphesenti ayi-1,2. Isizathu esikhulu sokusebenza okuphezulu kwe-Dividend Aristocrats, ikakhulukazi ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, yingxenye ephezulu yenzuzo yabo.
Ucwaningo olwenziwe ngabakwaStandard & Poor's lukhombisile ukuthi ngaphezu kwengxenye yesithathu yembuyiselo ephelele yesikhathi eside ezitokisini ivela ezinzalweni. Endabeni yama-Aristocrats, iningi lawo ngokwesiko alinayo inzuzo ekhangayo yemali entsha. Kepha abatshalizimali abanamathela kubo isikhathi eside bavuzwa ngokukhuphuka "kokubuyiselwa kuzindleko" ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.
Izinkokhelo ezithembekile nazo zisiza ukwenza leli chibi lingabi yingozi kakhulu kunamasheya amaningi. Isibonelo, ukungaguquguquki kwezimbuyiselo ze-Dividend Aristocrats phakathi no-2010, kulinganiswa ukuphambuka okujwayelekile - isilinganiso sokuthi amanani ahlakazeke kabanzi noma ancanyana kangakanani uma kuqhathaniswa nesilinganiso - abengaphansi kuka-9% kune-S & P 500.
Lokho akubenzi bahlaselwe ukuwohloka kwemakethe. Inani elithile lama-Aristocrats ehlukanisile lehlisile, lalahlekelwa yi-10%, 20%, ngisho ne-30% yenani labo selokhu kuqale imakethe yebhere. Kepha banikela ngaphezu kwezintengo ezishibhile, banikela ngenani langempela, kokubili ngenzuzo ephezulu kunejwayelekile, nangamandla okululama lapho imakethe isibuyela emuva. Isibonelo, inkampani elandelayo esizoyisho ngezansi:
I-AbbVie (ABBV, $ 75.24) ilindele ukuhlangana kwayo okulindile okungama- $ 63 billion ne-Allergan (AGN) ukuqeda ukukhula kancane kwesidakamizwa sayo esiphumelelayo iHumira. U-AbbVie uqale wathi ukuhlangana, okubhekene nokubambezeleka okuhlobene nokuvalwa kwe-coronavirus, kuzodala ibhizinisi elihlanganisiwe elizokhiqiza ukuthengisa okungaphezulu kwama- $ 30.000 billion kulo nyaka, bese kuba nokukhula kwamadijithi owodwa ngekusasa elibonakalayo. Lapho kudingeka khona ukugcizelela ukuthi izinxushunxushu zezomnotho ezikhona manje zinganciphisa lokho okulindelwe kancane.
I-AbbVie ithuthukisa izidakamizwa zezifo ezizimele, umdlavuza, i-virology (kufaka phakathi i-HIV ne-Hepatitis C), nokuphazamiseka kwemizwa. Futhi impela, enye yezidakamizwa zenkampani ze-HIV (Kaletra) iyahlolwa njengokwelashwa kwe-coronavirus. Khonamanjalo, i-Allergan yaziwa kakhulu ngemithi yayo yezimonyo iBotox kanye nokwelashwa kwayo ngeso leRestasis. Izinkampani zakwaWall Street zifana nokuhamba kwemali okuhlobene no-Allergan okuhlobene neBotox, abakholelwa ukuthi kuzothuthukisa amathuba okukhula kwe-ABBV.
Umthwalo wesikweletu ngemuva kokutholwa uzoba phezulu kuma- $ 95.000 billion, kepha u-AbbVie ulindele ukuthi anciphise isikweletu esingu- $ 15.000-18.000 billion ngasekupheleni kuka-2021, ebe futhi eqaphela ukusebenzisana kwezindleko ezingama- $ 3.000 billion ngaphambi kwentela. Ibhizinisi elihlanganisiwe likhiqize u- $ 19.000 billion ekusebenzeni kokuhamba kwemali ngonyaka odlule.
Amasheya we-ABBV abukeka eshibhile ngezikhathi nje ezingu-7,5 kuphela ezilinganisweni zomholo ozayo, okuyisizotha uma kuqhathaniswa nesilinganiso somlando wenkampani esingu-12 P / E esiya phambili. Abatshalizimali ekukhuleni kwezabelo bazothanda iminyaka engama-48 elandelanayo ka-AbbVie yokuthola imali etholakalayo; isilinganiso semali etholwayo engama-48% esihlinzeka ngokuguquguquka kokukhula kwesahlukaniso nokwehliswa kwezikweletu; kanye nesilinganiso seminyaka emi-18,3 sokukhula kwesahlukaniso seminyaka engama-6%. I-ABBV futhi iphakathi kwama-Aristocrats ahlinzeka kakhulu kunabo bonke enyakatho ye-XNUMX%.