Akungabazeki ukuthi ukuwa okukhulu okuye kwenzeka ezimakethe ngenxa yomphumela we-coronavirus kwenze ukuphepha okuningi esimweni esizuzisa kakhulu ukwenza ukuthenga okukhethiwe kusukela manje kuqhubeke. Ngokukhombisa ukulinganisa ezimakethe zezimali okuqinile kakhulu uma kuqhathaniswa nezinyanga ezandulele ukwanda kwalolu bhubhane. Ngaphandle kokululama okwenzekile kusukela ekupheleni kuka-Ephreli futhi okuholele ekwazisweni kuma-indices amakhulu emhlabeni cishe angama-20%. Kepha kungumbuzo wokucatshangelwa ukuthi isikhathi sokuvula izikhundla kwikota yesithathu yonyaka nokuthi ngabe kubaluleke kakhulu ukunikeza inzuzo kutshalomali lwethu.
Ngokwalo mbono, kubaluleke kakhulu ukwazi ukuthi ungatshala kuphi kwikota yesithathu ngoba kuzoba yisikhathi sonyaka lapho iphothifoliyo yokutshala imali ithatha isinqumo ngemuva kwalokho okwenzekile nokwanda kwe-coronavirus. Ngaphezu kwalokho, yisikhathi lapho ivolumu yokuhweba ezimakethe zamasheya ithanda ukwehla kakhulu futhi ifike ezingeni lokuthi ingasenza sidlale umdlalo omubi kulezi zinsuku zaleli hlobo elikhethekile kubatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi. Ngakho-ke, ukwelashwa ezimakethe zamasheya kufanele kwehluke maqondana neminye iminyaka futhi lokhu kungezinye zezinto okufanele zibhekwe lapho kwenziwa noma yiliphi isu lokutshala imali.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, akubalulekanga kangako ukuhlola ukwazi ukuthi uzotshala kuphi kwikota yesithathu okuyimikhakha engabamba izikhundla. Ngoba empeleni, akufani nokubekwa engxenyeni kagesi kunakwisigaba sabavakashi, ngoba ukuvela kwayo kuze kube manje bekuhluke ngokuphelele. Ngakho-ke, kufanele sihlele ukuthi sizoyibhekisa kuphi imali yethu etholakalayo yemakethe yamasheya futhi ngale ndlela sibe nokuvikeleka okwengeziwe esingeke sibe nesimo esingadingeki kule nkathi yonyaka. Lapho kungaba khona ukungazinzi okuningi kumanani akha izinkomba zemakethe yamasheya okuyinhloko futhi lokho kungenxa yesici esizolamula isinqumo esizosithatha ngalesi sikhathi esiqondile.
I-trimester yesithathu: igcina kakhulu
Isikhundla kule nkathi yonyaka kumele sibonakale sigcina imikhuba eqinile ngoba lo akuwona unyaka ojwayelekile njengayo yonke eminye. Ngenxa yokuthi nasezigabeni zokugcina zaleli kota lesithathu, kungaqubuka ukubheduka okusha kwaleli gciwane okungaholela ekuweni okusha futhi okunzima ezimakethe zamazwe zokulingana. Ngalo mqondo, kunconywa kakhulu ukuthi kulezi zinyanga abatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi bavikeleke kancane kunezinye izinkathi. Ngoba uhlelo oluhle kakhulu lokuvikela izintshisekelo zabo ukukhetha ukuphepha okuphephile okunganikeza ukuqina esitatimendeni semali esikhwameni sokutshala imali, okungenani ngekota yesithathu yalo nyaka okuyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu ukuxhumana nezwe lemali.
Ngaphakathi kwalomongo ojwayelekile, lesi sigaba sezokuphepha ezivikelayo noma ezilondolozayo yibo abathole isabelo esinqunyiwe nesiqinisekisiwe. Ngenzuzo ephakathi kuka-5% no-7% cishe. Noma yini eyenzekayo ezimakethe zamasheya noma ngabe kukhona ukuqubuka kwaleli gciwane ekugcineni eligcine lithinta iminotho yamazwe omhlaba ngodlame olukhulu. Kuze kube seqophelweni lokuthi kungahle kube noshintsho kuzinqubomgomo eziklanywe nguhulumeni ngamunye futhi lokho ngokungangabazeki ekugcineni kuzoba nomthelela wangempela ezimakethe zabo zokulingana. Into abatshalizimali abaningi abancane nabaphakathi abayisabayo, ikakhulukazi ezweni lethu nokuthi lokhu kwenza i-Ibex 35 ibe ngenye yezimpawu ezisala kakhulu emhlabeni jikelele. Ikakhulukazi ngokubuyela emuva ezimakethe zamasheya kusukela maphakathi no-Ephreli kusukela indlela abaziphathe ngayo ibiphansi kakhulu kunabo bonke abanye.
Buyela esitinini?
Esinye isici okuzofanele sicatshangelwe kusukela manje yiso esihlobene nokuthi izimali zezwe lethu zishibhile ngendlela emangalisayo ngenxa yezilinganiso zazo eziyisisekelo, yize ngokujwayelekile lapho kunokuwa kulokhu kulinganiswa ukuthi la manani Zitholakala zihlushwa ukutholakala kwazo emiphumeleni ye-coronavirus. Vele, lesi ngesinye sezici okufanele sizinakekele ukwenza iphothifoliyo yokutshala imali kulekota yonyaka.
Ngemuva kokulungisa ngokuqinile amanani abo, izinkampani zokwakha ezibalwe kumasheya, kulo nyaka ziqale ukukhuphuka okuholele ekutheni babuyise amanani abo, yize okwamanje wabathengi bayaqapha ngokuthatha izikhundla ngokuzenzisa futhi, bakhetha ukuhlala eceleni kuze kube yilapho kunikezwa izimpawu ezicacile.
Zonke izinkampani zokwakha nezakhiwo ezibhalwe ku-Ibex 35 zihlangabezane nokubuyekezwa okuphawulekayo emasontweni edlule, ezimweni eziningi ezingaphezulu kwama-20%, futhi kunoma yikuphi ukusebenza okungcono kunenkomba ekhethiwe ethola inzuzo engu-17%.
Inzuzo emaphakathi enikezwa izabelo zezinkampani ezakha inkomba ekhethiwe yaseSpain ehlobene nomkhakha wezokwakha ezinyangeni eziyishumi nambili ezedlule ingu-5%, ngokuhambisana naleyo yeminye imikhakha efana nokubhanga noma ugesi.
Ukuxoxisana okuncane ngo-Ephreli
ISpanish Stock Exchange ithengise Imali engenayo eguquguqukayo Ama-euro ayizigidi ezingama-29.312 ngoMeyi, 4,3% ngaphansi kuka-Ephreli no-27% ngaphansi kwenyanga efanayo yonyaka odlule. Imali eqoqiwe kuze kube ngoMeyi bekungama-euro ayizigidi ezingama-189.590, u-4,1% ngaphansi kunonyaka odlule.
Inani lezingxoxo ngenyanga lifike kwizigidi ezingama-4,24, ngaphezulu kuka-39% kunangoMeyi 2019 no-23% ngaphezulu kunesibalo sango-Ephreli. Inani lezingxoxo ezinqwabelene ezinyangeni ezinhlanu zokuqala konyaka limi ezigidini ezingama-22,8, ezimele ukukhula ngama-47,5% uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo sonyaka odlule.
NgoMeyi, iBME yafinyelela esabelweni semakethe ekuhwebeni kwezokuphepha zaseSpain okungama-73,9%. Ububanzi obumaphakathi ngoMeyi bekungamaphuzu ayisisekelo angu-8,46 ezingeni lentengo yokuqala (okungu-12,1% okungcono kunendawo elandelayo yokuhweba) namaphoyinti ayisisekelo ayi-13,37 ngokujula kwama- € 25.000 encwadini yoku-oda (okungu-23,4% kangcono), ngokusho kombiko ozimele . Lezi zibalo zifaka ukuhweba okwenziwa ezindaweni zokuhweba, zombili encwadini yokubonisa okusobala (i-LIT), kufaka phakathi indali, kanye nokuhweba okungabonakali (okumnyama) okwenziwe ngaphandle kwencwadi.
Yehla ekusebenzeni
Ngemuva kokwehla komsebenzi obhaliswe emakethe yokuqala njengomphumela wokuqala kwenhlekelele yeCovid-19 eYurophu, ukukhishwa ezimakethe ze Ukuqashwa okungaguquki Sebelulame kulandela imizamo nezinhlelo zokuthengwa kwempahla ze-European Union, uHulumeni, i-ICO ne-ECB. Inani eliphelele elitholwe ngoMeyi kwi-Fixed Income lalingama-euro ayizigidi ezingama-20.882, okusho ukwehla kwama-29,5% uma kuqhathaniswa nenyanga efanayo yangonyaka odlule. Ukwamukelwa kwezentengiselwano, kufaka phakathi izingqinamba zezikweletu zomphakathi kanye nemali engenayo yangasese, kufinyelele kwizigidi ezingama-37.801 zama-euro, ngokunyuka okungu-61,3% uma kuqhathaniswa noMeyi 2019 kanye no-22,3% ngonyaka onqwabelene. Ibhalansi esalele ibimi kuma-euro ayizigidigidi ezingama-1,62, okusho ukwanda kwama-4,8% kuze kube manje kulo nyaka.
Ukuhweba ezimakethe ze Okuphuma kwezezimali ngenyanga kaMeyi lenyuka uma liqhathaniswa nenyanga eyedlule. Ku-Futures ku-IBEX 35 inyuke ngo-15,8% naku-Izinketho ku-IBEX 35, 56,4%. Ngokwengxenye yabo, iStock Futures inyuse ukuhweba kwabo ngo-63,4% kanye nezinketho zesitoko ngo-31,6%. Kusukela ngoMeyi 18, akukho ukwenqatshelwa ukusungula noma ukukhulisa izikhala ezimfushane eziphelele kwizibambiso ezingeniswe emakethe yaseSpain. Ezingxenyeni eziyishumi ngaphandle kwalesi silinganiso, ukuhweba ngezivumelwano ze-Futures ku-IBEX 35 kukhuphuke ngo-19,5% uma kuqhathaniswa nezikhathi ezifanayo zonyaka odlule.
Ukutshalwa kwezimali e-USA
Ukuncishiswa kwentela kukaMongameli uDonald Trump kungenzeka kube nomphumela ovusa amadlingozi abawuthembisile, ngokusho kwedatha kahulumeni ekhishwe emasontweni edlule. Ngale ndlela, kufanele kukhunjulwe ukuthi ukutshalwa kwezimali kwebhizinisi ngekota yesithathu kwehle ngo-3%, ngemuva kokuwa ngo-1% kwikota edlule. Lokho kuwa kuwuphawu lokuqhamuka nokweqa kuka-4,4% kwikota yokuqala no-4,8% uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule.
Ukwehla kuza ngesikhathi sokungaqiniseki kwezomnotho, okubangelwa yingxenye yempi yezohwebo kaTrump neChina. Lokhu kubeka ukungaqiniseki empikiswaneni yakhe yokuthi umthethosivivinywa wentela owasayina ngoDisemba 1,5 uzoba wusizo ekutshalweni kwezamabhizinisi, ekuqasheni nasekukhuliseni amaholo. "Izinkampani ziyaxakeka ngokoqobo," esho ngaleso sikhathi.
Ukwehla kokutshalwa kwezimali kwezamabhizinisi kufaka phakathi ukwehla okutshalwa kwezimali ngo-15,3% ezinhlakeni - okubandakanya ukwakhiwa kwezakhiwo ezintsha noma imiphongolo yezimayini - kanye nokwehla okungu-3,8% kotshalomali kuzinto zokusebenza, ngokusho kwabahlaziyi baseMorgan. Ukusetshenziswa kwemali ngendlela ethambile "kukhombisa isimo sokuhamba kancane komnotho emhlabeni kanye nokungaqiniseki kwenqubomgomo yokuhweba," kubhala abahlaziyi eMorgan Stanley. Lo mbiko uphawule ukuthi ezinye izinto ezinomthelela ekwehleni kungenzeka zibe zesikhashana. Ukutshalwa kwezimali ezindizeni kwehle ngama-80%, mhlawumbe ngenxa yezinselelo iBoeing eye yaba nazo ngezindiza zayo ezingama-737 Max.
Ukucindezeleka kokutshalwa kwebhizinisi
USihlalo weFederal Reserve uJerome Powell usole "ukukhula kancane phesheya kanye nokuthuthuka kwezohwebo" ngokuwa kwezimali kwezamabhizinisi. Ubalule ukuthi i-US isebenza esigabeni sokuqala sesivumelwano sokuhweba neChina, okuthi "uma sisayinwe futhi sasebenza, singaba nomphumela wokunciphisa ukungezwani kwezebhizinisi kanye nokunciphisa ukungaqiniseki, futhi lokho kungaba yinto enhle. kholwa, ngokuzethemba kwebhizinisi mhlawumbe nomsebenzi ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. '
UPowell wenze la mazwi lapho ememezela ukuthi kuzokwehliswa inzalo yenani lekota elilindelekile, kodwa waphawula ukuthi kungakhuphula izinga lokwehliswa okunjalo esikhathini esizayo. Kunezinye izimpawu zokuthi ukungaqiniseki kungenzeka kungena egumbini lokubhoda. Ukuqedwa kwamadili omhlaba, okuvame ukuba uphawu lokuzethemba kwe-CEO, kwehle kwikota yesithathu, inani eliphelele lesivumelwano lehla ngama-21,2% laya kuma- $ 622.000 billion kusuka ku- $ 790.000 billion, ngokusho kweMergermarket. E-United States, inani lamadili lehle ngama-32% laya ku- $ 263.000 billion kusuka ku- $ 387.000 billion.
Ngokuqinisekile, womabili amathrendi angahlehliswa. Ukungaqiniseki maqondana nezohwebo kungenzeka kunciphe, iHhovisi Likameleli Wezokuhweba wase-US lathi ngesonto eledlule ukuthi iChina ne-US sekuseduze ukuthi baphothule isivumelwano sokuqala. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, enye idatha eshicilelwe yayinethemba elikhulu. Ucwaningo lwanyanga zonke lwe-ADP ne-Moody's Analytics luthole ukuthi izinkampani ziqashe abasebenzi abengeziwe abangama-25.000 1,9 ngo-Okthoba kunalabo abangozomnotho abahlolwa nguDow Jones. Ukukhula komkhiqizo wasekhaya osezingeni eliphezulu laseMelika nakho kwehlula okulindelwe, yize utshalomali lwebhizinisi lwehlile. UMnyango Wezohwebo uthe ngoLwesithathu umsebenzi wezomnotho ukhule ngezinga lonyaka elingu-1,6% kwikota yokuqala, ephakeme kunokulindelekile kwasekuqaleni kuka-XNUMX%, okuqhutshwa ukusetshenziswa kwemali okuqinile kwabathengi.
Ukhetho e-United States
Yize kunjalo, njengoba ukhetho lwango-2020 selushisa, izinombolo zinika abaphikisi bakaTrump izinto zokuthi bashayele izinqubomgomo zakhe. Umeluleki wenqubomgomo yezomnotho ku-Sen. U-Elizabeth Warren ubhale kuTwitter ngoLwesithathu, "Ukuqinisa kakhulu ukutshalwa kwezimali kwezamabhizinisi kanye nomnotho, faka imali emaphaketheni abantu ongayisebenzisa."
I-ajenda yezomnotho ebanzi kaWarren isuselwa engxenyeni ethile yokuthi umcebo omningi wase-US uhlukanisiwe phakathi kwezinkampani ezikhethiwe kanye nabantu abacebile. Izinhlelo zakhe zifaka intela "ye-ultra-million dollar", edinga intela engu-2% kwidola ngalinye ikhaya elinemali engaphezu kwamaRandi ayizigidi ezingama-50 kanye nentela engu-3% emakhaya anemali engaphezu kuka- $ 1.000 billion. Ufuna izinkampani zentela u-7% ngedola ngalinye abalitholayo ngaphezulu kuka- $ 100 million.
Uhlelo lwakhe, nokho, lubukeka lunyakazisa ama-CEO ngenye indlela. Abahlaziyi be-Wall Street equity bakhombe amasheya ezinkampani zezempilo, ezezimali nezamandla njengaba sengozini uma kwenzeka bezikhethela. Izintengo zamasheya eziningi zazo, kubandakanya i-United Health ne-Apollo Global, sezivele zakhathazeka ngokubonakala ngezinqubomgomo aziphakamisayo.
Izimakethe zamaBond zihlangene
Amasheya omhlaba agudlukela eceleni, acindezelwa yimpi ehwebayo yase-US-China kanye nezimpawu zokwehlisa ukukhula komnotho emhlabeni. Amabhange amaningi emaphakathi anciphisa amanani enzalo ngomzamo wokulwa nemiphumela elimazayo yamanani aphezulu kanye nomsebenzi ophansi wokukhiqiza. Izimali ezisafufusa ezimakethe zathola ukulahlekelwa okukhulu, kuyilapho izimakethe e-United States naseJapane zazihamba kangcono kakhulu. Ngenkathi ngakolunye uhlangothi, kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi ekugcineni izimakethe zebond zitholakale.
Izitoko ezivikelayo ziphumelele ukusebenza kwemikhakha ebucayi kwezomnotho jikelele, eholwa umhlangano oqinile phakathi kwezinsiza kanye nezinkampani ezithengisa izindlu. Izitoko zezimpahla zabathengi nazo zithumele izinzuzo ezinkulu. Amandla kanye nezinto eziyisisekelo amasheya enqabile njengoba abatshalizimali bekhathazekile ngempilo yomnotho womhlaba. Izitoko zokuzikhethela zezezimali nezabathengi zaziyisicaba.
Amasheya akhuphuke phakathi kwesimo esikhanyayo somnotho wezwe kanye nemali engenayo yebhizinisi engcono kunalokho obekulindelwe. Izinkomba zemakethe ezimbalwa ezisemqoka zishaye kakhulu ngesikhathi sekota, yize kuqubuka ukungezwani neNorth Korea nokuqala kwenkathi yesiphepho ebhubhisa kakhulu. Amasheya aseYurophu nezimakethe ezisafufusa zadlula amasheya ase-US.
Amasheya abucayi kwezomnotho ngokuvamile ahlinzeka ngenzuzo ephakeme kunemikhakha evikelayo. Ubuchwepheshe bolwazi, amandla kanye namasheya ezinto athumele izimakethe ngaphezulu. Amasheya ezezimali nawo athuthukile ekulindeleni kokukhuphuka kwenzalo yomhlaba. Umkhakha oyisisekelo wabathengi uwe, usindwe ukwehla okukhulu kwamasheya enkampani kagwayi.
USihlalo weFederal Reserve uJerome Powell usole "ukukhula kancane phesheya kanye nokuthuthuka kwezohwebo" ngokuwa kwezimali kwezamabhizinisi. Ubalule ukuthi i-US isebenza esigabeni sokuqala sesivumelwano sokuhweba neChina, okuthi "uma sisayinwe futhi sasebenza, singaba nomphumela wokunciphisa ukungezwani kwezebhizinisi kanye nokunciphisa ukungaqiniseki, futhi lokho kungaba yinto enhle. kholwa, ngokuzethemba kwebhizinisi mhlawumbe nomsebenzi ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. '