Ekugcineni lukhona usuku olucacile lokuthi i-tapering ebikade ilindelwe iqale ukusebenza. Lokhu kushiwo ngumongameli we-European Central Bank (ECB) UMario Draghi engqungqutheleni lapho echaze kabanzi ukuthi lesi senzo sizothuthukiswa kanjani ku izimakethe zezezimali. Kwakuyinto okulindelwe ngabathengisi bezimakethe nokuthi ekugcineni kunosuku olubekiwe lwabaphathi lokuhambisa ukonga kwamakhasimende. Kuzoqala ngale nyanga ka-Okthoba, lapho izibikezelo ziveze ukuthi kuzoqala ngonyaka ozayo. Kunoma ikuphi, ikhalenda selivele liyaqhubeka futhi kuzoba lula kakhulu kuwe ukulazi kusukela manje.
Okokuqala, kuzodingeka ukucacisa incazelo yangempela yokuthi kuyini ukuthwebula. Yebo, kumane kungukuthi ukuhoxiswa kokuvuselela emnothweni wamazwe we-euro zone. Kufanele ukhumbule ukuthi ibhange laseYurophu lokukhishwa belilokhu lifaka uketshezi emnothweni eminyakeni edlule. Kuze kufike isikhathi sokuyikhipha ngenxa yesimo esihle semingcele emikhulu yezomnotho ezwenikazi elidala. Ngokuqagela kokukhula komnotho ngaphezu kokulindelekile. UTapering usebenze, ngokombono wabanye abahlaziyi bezimakethe zezezimali, ukuze izimali zaseYurophu zihlale zinamandla ngalesi sikhathi. Manje kuzodingeka ukuthi kuqinisekiswe ukuthi ngabe ikwenziwe ngendlela engeyona noma cha.
Vele, sincane isikhathi esisele sokuthi i-tapering iqale futhi enye yezinto ezifanele kakhulu ekusetshenzisweni kwayo kuzoba ukuthi izithinta kanjani izimakethe zezezimali, ikakhulukazi lezo zamasheya. Akumangalisi ukuthi kunokwesaba ukuthi kungaba yimbangela yezinkomba eziyinhloko zokushintsha umkhuba wazo futhi zithuthukise i- ukubheka phansi lokho kungaholela ekuhwebeni kwezibambiso ngamanani ancintisana kakhulu kunamanje. Akusekho izinsuku eziningi ezisele zokwazi ukusabela kwezimakethe zezimali futhi yiziphi amasu okutshala imali okumele abatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi basebenzise kusuka manje.
Tapering kusukela ngo-Okthoba
Ukuqala kwesikhuthazi somnotho kuzoqala kusukela kule nyanga ka-Okthoba. Kodwa-ke, akucaci, njengoba kushiwo esitatimendeni se-ECB. Ngaphandle kokuthi kwenzeka okuthile okungalindelekile. Okungenakukhishwa ngaphandle ngemicimbi eminingana engakhula ngesikhathi esifushane. Ngeke kulibaleke ukuthi ukhetho olujwayelekile eJalimane selusondele. Futhi noma yimiphi imiphumela emisha ingathinta izinqumo ezingenziwa eFrankfurt. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kukhona ne- impi yangaphambi kwempi eNyakatho Korea futhi lokho kungaphazamisa noma yisiphi isinyathelo ngabaphathi bezezimali bezwekazi elidala.
Esinye sezici eziphawuleka kakhulu ezithinta lesi silinganiso sokubaluleka okukhethekile kwezomnotho ukuthi noma yikuphi ukusilela okungenzeka emininingwaneni yezomnotho yale ndawo yezomnotho ebaluleke kakhulu emhlabeni. Kepha uma kungenzeki lutho, izinsuku sezivele zibekiwe futhi kuzoqala ngo-Okthoba lapho kuqala ukuthwebula okulindelwe kudala. Ngalesi sikhathi, abatshalizimali bazobe behlola umthelela wayo ukuzama ukwenza ukonga kube nenzuzo. Ngoba nakulesi simo amathuba ebhizinisi langempela azovela ukuthi kufanele usebenzise ngokunenzuzo ukukhulisa inzuzo yakho ezimakethe zezezimali.
Uhlelo lokuhoxiswa kwe-Stimulus
Kunoma ikuphi, izimakethe zezezimali kusazodingeka zilinde isikhashana ukubona ukuhoxiswa kwangempela kwalezi zinto. Akumangalisi ukuthi i-ECB ixwayisa lokho kuze kube nguDisemba uzotshala ama-euro ayizigidi ezingama-60.000 inyanga ngayinye ekutholakaleni kwamabhondi azimele kanye nokuphepha kwenkampani. Akunakulibaleka ukuthi inhloso enkulu yokusetshenziswa kwalezi zinto zomnotho kwakuwukukhuthaza ukuvuselelwa kwendawo ye-euro. Okuthile ngokombono weziphathimandla zezimali zaseYurophu sekuvele kufezekile. Futhi balinganisela ukuthi asisekho isidingo sokuqhubeka nokufaka imali ethe xaxa ezimakethe ezehlukene zezezimali.
Kulesi simo esivamile, futhi lesi sinqumo asikwazi ukuhlukaniswa nokuvela kwe-euro ngokuqhathaniswa nezinye izimali zomhlaba wonke. Futhi ikakhulukazi maqondana nedola laseMelika selokhu ukukhula kwezinguquko kuthole inani laso eliphakeme eminyakeni eminingi. Kufike ezingeni lokufinyelela amazinga we-1,20 euro kuqhathaniswa nale mali. Isici esizoba khona esinqumweni sokufaka isicelo sokuthwebula kusuka kule nyanga ka-Okthoba.
Umnotho onempilo endaweni ye-euro
Kuze kube manje, i-European Central Bank inombono wokuthi ukuguquka komnotho kuyenelisa ngokombono omningi. Ukuthi izibikezelo zithandeka kakhulu maqondana nalokhu. Izilinganiso zabo zikhombisa ukuthi ukukhula komnotho konyaka we-2017, 2018 nowe-2019 izohamba ngebhendi elihamba phakathi kuka-1,7% no-2,2%. 1,8% no-1,7%. Lokhu izibikezelo ukuthi kunoma yikuphi kuphakeme kunalokho obekulindelwe ezinyangeni ezedlule futhi okusebenzise ukwenza lesi sinqumo esibalulekile. Ngomthelela ophawuleka kakhulu ezimakethe zezezimali, futhi ikakhulukazi emkhakheni wemakethe yamasheya.
Ngenkathi kwenzeka okuphambene nalokho, ukulinganiselwa ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali kuzokwehla ezinyangeni ezizayo engxenyeni enkulu yamazwe endawo ye-euro. Ngalo mqondo, izibikezelo ezisemthethweni zibonisa ukuthi kule nkathi kungaba khona isuka ku-1,5% iye ku-1,2%. Amandla athile angasuswa ngawo entengo yemali eyodwa yaseYurophu. Mhlawumbe enye yezinkinga ezinkulu ezikhona ezimakethe zezwekazi elidala. Ngokwenza izinkampani zaseYurophu zingancintisani kakhulu lapho zithumela kwamanye amazwe.
Umthelela kuma-equities
Kunoma ikuphi, eminye imiphumela yalesi silinganiso esifanele ukuthi izothinta kanjani izimakethe zezimali. Ngalo mqondo, kukhona ukwesaba okuthile ohlangothini lwezimali ukuthi kungathinta kabi izimakethe zamasheya zaseYurophu. Lapho kukhiqiza ukuthi izikhundla zokuthengisa zibekwa ngokucacile okuphawulekayo kubathengi. Uma kunjalo, akungabazeki ukuthi sasizobona ukulungiswa okuphawulekayo kunani lentengo. Yize ngokuqinisekile bekungeke kube ngo-Okthoba, kepha sekuvele kusuka ngonyaka olandelayo. Lesi ngesinye sezehlakalo ezidalwe abanye babahlaziyi abadume kakhulu ezimakethe zezimali zomhlaba jikelele.
Uma lesi simo sifika, akukho kungabaza ukuthi omunye wemikhakha ethinteke kakhulu kuzoba ngamabhange. Kuze kube seqophelweni lokuthi bangakhula ukuwa okubalulekile futhi bakhombe ushintsho kuthrendi abayibonisile kuze kube manje. Kunoma yiziphi izimo, ngesinye sezimo abatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi okufanele babone kusengaphambili kusukela manje. Ngeke kulimaze lokho ukuqapha ekusebenzeni kwemakethe yamasheya yiyona ndlela ejwayelekile yezenzo ezinyangeni zokugcina zonyaka. Ngoba empeleni kunemali eningi ongayishiya usendleleni uma lokhu okulindelwe kugcwaliseka kuzimo ezenziwe ngamanani.
Isikhathi sokulinda ukusebenza
Zonke lezi zinto zikuthonya ukuthi uvikele ukonga kwakho futhi uvikele izimo ezingafuneki ngempela. Ngoba amandla abangawakhulisa ekwehleni kwabo angakhathazeka kakhulu ngezintshisekelo zakho. Kuphi imikhakha ethile ingenza kabi ukwedlula yonke eminye. Ikakhulu, izinkampani ezifakwe kuhlu ezinamazinga aphezulu okungena ezikweletini kanye nokuthinta kungenzeka kungabi izindaba ezinhle kwizintshisekelo zebhizinisi labo. Kepha kunalokho okuphambene, ngokwenza ngcono izinkinga zakho zezimali. Kungalezi zindinganiso okufanele ubalekele futhi akunakwenzeka ukuthi uvule izikhundla kuziphakamiso zemakethe.
Kunoma ikuphi, ukuthinta kungaba yisimo esihle sokukhiqiza ukuguquguquka okukhulu ezimakethe zezezimali. Lapho kuphela abatshalizimali abanolwazi oluningi abazokwazi ukuthola okuningi ekusebenzeni kwabo ngamasheya. Ngoba awukwazi ukukukhohlwa lokho ukukhishwa kuzoba kukhulu ukuthi kuze kube manje. Ngemakethe esebenzayo kakhulu. Yize ngokuphambene nalokho, kungaba yisikhathi esisetshenziswa ngabasebenzisi abaningi ukulungisa izikhundla zabo futhi balinde isikhathi esingcono sokutshala imali.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kuzobaluleke kakhulu ukuthi lokhu kuhoxiswa kwesikhuthazo sezomnotho kungahlaziywa ngokufika okungenzeka komkhuba omusha kumanani, imikhakha noma izinkomba zemakethe yamasheya. Ngoba sekukonke, kungakhiwa isimo esisha lapho kuzonqunywa khona ukuthi ngabe kunengqondo yini ukungena noma ukuphuma amanani wezimakethe zase-Europe. Isikhathi esingahlala iminyaka eminingi futhi esizodinga ushintsho kucebo olisebenzisayo kuze kube yileso sikhathi. Kuze kube seqophelweni lokuthi kuzodingeka kakhulu kunangaphambili ukuthi ulungise iphothifoliyo yakho. Ngaphandle kokuthi ufuna ukuthatha isimanga esingaphezu kwesisodwa esingahle sithinte ibhalansi ye-akhawunti yakho yokuhlola.