Sijwayele ukuzwa amagama wezomnotho afana ne-inflation, i-hyperinflation, ukwehla kwamandla, njll. Isizathu sokuthi akuvamile kangako ukuzwa i-reflation kungenxa yokuthi kuyinto ebangelwe futhi isetshenziswe kakhulu kakhulu. Ukuboshwa kwabo kudale isimo esingesihle ezimakethe lapho umnotho uthwale khona. Ukusuka lapha kuqhubeke, ohulumeni, ngosizo lwamabhange amakhulu, baqala ukuvuselela umnotho ngokwenza. Lo mkhuba yilokho okwaziwa ngokuthi yi-reflation.
Imiphumela yezomnotho ye-reflation iyahlukahluka kuye ngezimo eziholele ekusetshenzisweni kwayo. Ngalesi sizathu, ngeke nje sichaze ukuthi imayelana nani, kodwa futhi sizocacisa nokuthi kungani isetshenziswa namuhla nokuthi ikuphi ukungafani okwedlule. Uma unentshisekelo yokwazi umthelela okuba nawo, qhubeka ufunde!
Kuyini ukuphindaphinda?
I-Reflation yisimo lapho uhulumeni, ngokusebenzisa inkuthazo yemali, ihlose ukudala ukwehla kwamandla emali ukugwema ukuya kokuvunguza i-deflationary. Yize kungesona isimo esihle kunazo zonke, kungcono kakhulu ukwehla okujwayelekile kwamanani ngawo wonke umonakalo ongawudala emnothweni. Ukuphuma kokuvunguza kwe-deflationary kunzima, njengoba inzuzo ephansi icindezela izinkampani ukuthi zizithole sezimweni ezinzima kakhulu. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kunzima ukuqondisa kabusha umnotho ubuyele endleleni yokukhula.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, sinokwehla kwamandla emali, futhi ekugcineni, ngenxa yalokho, ukwehla kwamandla emali. Ukwehla kwamandla emali kulindeleke ukuthi kube okwesikhashana, futhi noma ngabe kunokunyuka okujwayelekile kwamanani, ukukhula kungabuye kukhuphuke futhi. Eqinisweni, igama elithi reflation liyinhlanganisela yokwehla komnotho kanye ne-inflation.
Ukuphindaphinda namuhla
Ukuvalwa phansi ngenxa yenkinga yamanje kumise iningi lemishini yezomnotho. Ngemuva kwalokho, izimboni futhi cishe yonke ingxenye yomkhakha wezinsizakalo ime. Lokho kuguqulelwe ekulahlekelweni okukhulu, ukungabi namali, kanye nenhloso ejwayelekile yokonga ngenxa yokwesaba inkinga. Ama-indices amakhulu wawo wonke amazwe atatazela, kwathi ezinsukwini ezimbalwa izimakethe zamasheya zehla ngezinga elingakaze libonwe ngaphambili.
Ohulumeni emhlabeni wonke baqala ukufaka imali kakhulu emnothweni wabo, ne-USA ihamba phambili, okuthe ngo-Ephreli 2020 kuphela base benama-3 trillion. Inhloso yalokhu kuchithwa kwemali bekungukuxhasa amazwe ngokutholwa kwamabhondi, lapho bonke bengezelele izikweletu zabo, nokunikeza abantu usizo lokugwema imiphumela. Phakathi kokuvame kakhulu eSpain, ama-ERTE, ngakolunye uhlangothi, usizo kubantu asebephelise ukungasebenzi kwabo phakathi kokuvalelwa, njll. Izwe ngalinye liphinde lamukela izindlela ezintsha zezimali. Isibonelo, iFrance yehlise izintela eziningi, noma icala laseJalimane lapho u-75% wemali ekhokhelwayo wakhokhelwa amabhizinisi ngokomthetho okumele awavale.
Isithombe sithathiwe kusuka ku- Wikimedia Commons
Konke lokhu kunyakaza kuholele ku ukuphepha okukhulu okubonwa yizakhamizi, Kubuye kwahambisana nesifiso sokuqalisa kabusha "impilo ejwayelekile", ukusetshenziswa kanye nezibopho zomphakathi. Lokhu kusho ukuthi ingxenye enkulu yabantu ibingakwazi gcina ngaphezu kokujwayelekile, ezaqala ukudala i- ukwanda kwesidingo sezimpahla ezithile, njengezindawo ezithengiswayo. Intengo yezindlu yaqala ukukhuphuka okuqinile ngokwesilinganiso kuwo wonke amazwe, futhi kuya kwinani elikhulu lokuthengwa emikhakheni ehlukahlukene. Yini ekugcineni namuhla amanani ngokuvamile enyukile. Konke lokhu ngaphandle kokukhuluma ngenkinga yamanje yamandla ethinta amazwe amaningi kakhulu.
Ilukuluku mayelana nokuphindaphinda
Umbono wezomnotho wakudala uyakusekela lokho ukwehla kwamandla emali empeleni kuyisimo semali. Ukunwetshwa okuningana kungathunyelwa ekukhiqizweni okukhulu kanye / noma ekunikezelweni kwezimpahla. Konke lokho kunikezwa kwemali okukhulu kakhulu kungahle kuye noma kungahambeli ekukhiqizweni. Kodwa-ke, uma umkhiqizo ungathuthukiswa, uzohumushela kokukhulu ukukhuphuka kwamanani, njengoba kunesidingo esikhulu kunomthamo wokukhiqiza. Leli phuzu yilokho kanye okwenzekile ngemuva kwenkinga yezempilo. Ngenxa yokuvalwa okuphoqelelwe kwezimboni, kusenokubambezeleka kokulethwa nokuhlangabezana naleso sidingo esikhona.
Eqinisweni, kuningi ukwesaba ukwehla kwamandla emali nokuthi akukho mikhiqizo yesizini kaKhisimusi elandelayo okwenza kube yibhodlela. Lona kanye uvalo lokuthi izimfuno zesikhathi esizayo azikwazi ukuhlangatshezwa lubuyisela emuva indlela okuvele kube nzima ukuphuma kuyo.
Yini esingayilindela?
Ezingeni lapho umfutho wezimali unyusa umnotho futhi unyusa amanani, isimo esingenzeka sithi ukuthi ohulumeni baqala ukuhoxisa kancane kancane. Lokhu "ukulinda" okulindelekile. Ngalokhu, amanani enzalo azoqala ukukhuphuka, nakho okudingekayo. Izipikili amanani aphansi kakhulu njengalezi zamanje ezinokwehla kwamandla emali ezikhulayo ayinampilo. Kodwa-ke, azikwazi ukuhoxiswa ngokungazelelwe, ngoba akuhloselwe ukudala inkinga yezikweletu, ngoba imikhakha eminingi namazwe asevele enezikweletu ezinkulu.
Ezimweni eziye zashintshwa futhi zashintshwa, kukhona eyodwa ukwehla kwamandla emali kungaba okwesikhashana. Lapho izingqinamba sezinyamalele, konke kuzobuyela "kokujwayelekile". Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kunamazwi amaningi andayo asho lokho ukwehla kwamandla emali sekuzinzile, okungenani isikhathi eside. IBridgewater, okuyisikhwama sokutshala imali eholwa nguRay Dalio, ithi le minyaka eyishumi ngeke ifane no-2010 ngokwehla kwamandla emali. Izibalo zamanje ziyayisekela le mbono, njengoba sezifinyelele ekunyukeni kwamandla emali e-USA nase-Europe ezingakaze zibonwe kusukela ngo-2008. Zombili lezi zikhathi ziphathwe ngendlela efanayo, inkinga yezindlu neyezempilo, ngokunwetshwa okuningana okuye kwazama ukugwema ukwehla kwamandla omnotho. Kepha lapho kulindeleke khona izikhathi zokuqala zokwehla kwamandla emali ezingasondelanga ndawo ukuthi zivele, kulokhu sekuvele ngendlela ejwayelekile.
Umhlaba awunalayini, futhi okwamanje kungenzeka kube yimibono nezimo ezingenzeka. Kunoma ikuphi, manje uyazi ukuthi kusho ukuthini ukuphindaphinda, futhi ungakuqonda kangcono okwenzekayo emhlabeni namuhla.