I-European Central Bank (ECB) iphinde yakhombisa ukuthi ikulungele ukusiza umnotho woMphakathi ezikhathini ezinqumayo njenganamuhla. Ngoba empeleni, i-ejensi yezimali ivume uhlelo olusha lokubolekwa kwamabhange ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukuthi kudingeka imali engakanani. Kuze kube yilapho isilinganiso saso esishaye kakhulu kube ukwehlisa amazinga wenzalo ku-TLTRO III yemalimboleko yesikhathi eside ibe -1%. Iqiniso elingakhuthaza izimakethe zezimali kusukela manje kuqhubeke futhi ikakhulukazi lokho kungathatha i-Ibex 35 emazingeni amaphuzu angama-8000, okuwumgomo wayo olandelayo ukufinyelela.
Kumanani entengo emakethe yamasheya ezweni lethu, akungabazeki ukuthi inhloso elandelayo ye-Ibex 35 ukufinyelela ezingeni lamaphoyinti angama-8000. Kepha ingabe leli zinga liyenzeka ngempela enkombeni ekhethiwe yamasheya aseSpain? Ukufinyelela kuleli phuzu kungasho ukwengezwa okwengeziwe okusondele ku-10% ngakho-ke kungadinga ithemba elikhulu kubatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi. Yize kuyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu ukuyifinyelela esikhathini esifushane, ayikulandelwa kude esikhathini esimaphakathi futhi ikakhulukazi isikhathi eside. Akumangalisi ukuthi kungenye yezinsizakalo eziphawuleka kakhulu inkomba ebhekiswe kuzo njengamanje. Ngakho-ke, kuyizinga okufanele libhekwe ngokucophelela kusukela manje kuqhubeke.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, akunakulibaleka ukuthi ubuthakathaka besifazane baseYurophu yinto ejwayelekile encazelweni yabo. Lapho, le nhlangano kufanele ihambisane nedatha enhle esiyithola iyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu ezimweni zamanje. Vele, isisusa esihle sokufeza lezi zinhloso kuzoba ukutholakala komuthi wokugoma noma umuthi wokwelapha i-coronavirus. Kulokhu, izimakethe zamasheya zingaba nembuyiselo ebaluleke kakhulu nokuthi esimweni sezimali ezweni lethu kungaholela kumaphoyinti angama-8000 noma amazinga adingeka kakhulu. Futhi leli qiniso lingenzeka nganoma yisiphi isikhathi futhi ngendlela engalindelekile ngabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi.
Izidingo zamaphoyinti angama-8000
Enye yezimfuneko zokufinyelela la mazinga entengo ezimakethe zamasheya zaseSpain, njengoba sishilo, ukuthi intando kuzoba ukutholakala komuthi wokugoma noma umuthi wokwelapha i-coronavirus. Lesi isidingo esidinga ukuhlangabezana nokuhlukahluka okuningi okuphathwa ngabahlaziyi ezimakethe zezimali. Yize kuyinto exogenous evame ukusethwa ngabenzeli abahlukahlukene bezezimali. Ngakho-ke, kunzima kakhulu kubatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi ukuthi babone kusengaphambili lapho bethuthukisa imisebenzi yabo ukwenza inzuzo yabo yokonga. Ngaphandle kokukwazi ukusebenzisa amasu amaningi ekutshalweni kwemali, okungenani esikhathini esifushane kusuka emazingeni abo amanje.
Ngenkathi ngakolunye uhlangothi, kungakhohlwa ukuthi ezinye zezidingo zalesi simo ezenzekayo ukuqala kabusha kwemisebenzi yezomnotho ezweni lethu. Isimo esingasetshenziswa ngoJuni ozayo, njengoba uhulumeni wezwe lethu ehlaziyile. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kufanele kubonakale ukuthi iyini impendulo evela kumthengi maqondana nabasebenzisi nokuthi ingaba nomthelela omkhulu ekuveleni kwenkomba ekhethiwe yezimali ezweni lethu. Ikakhulu, ukufinyelela emazingeni amaphuzu angama-8000, okuyisigaba sokuqala sokululama emakethe yamasheya kazwelonke ekuhlaziyweni kwezobuchwepheshe.
Imikhakha ezovuka
Lapho nje i-Ibex 35 ingafinyelela ezingeni lamaphoyinti angama-8000, kuzodingeka ukuthi kuhlolisiswe ukuthi yimiphi imikhakha yemakethe yamasheya engaphendula kangcono kulesi simo ezimakethe eziguquguqukayo zemali engenayo. Empeleni, abajeziswe kakhulu kuze kube manje yibo abangenza konke okusemandleni kulesi simo esisha nesinganekiwe esethulwe kwi-Ibex 35. Ezokuphepha, ezinjengemikhakha ejikelezayo, yasebhange ikakhulukazi lezo zezokungcebeleka nezokuvakasha umkhakha. Kuze kube seqophelweni lokuthi bazokwazi ukulandelela izikhundla zabo kancane kusuka kulowo mzuzu nesikhathi. Ngalo mqondo, kufanele kugcizelelwe ukuthi bangakwazi ukunyuka intaba ezindaweni zokuhweba ezingaphezu kuka-10% ngakho-ke kube lula ukwenza inzuzo kulezi zikhathi zokuhlaziya.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kufanele futhi kugcizelelwe ukuthi elinye lamagugu angenza kangcono emasontweni azayo lelo limelwe yizinkampani zokwakha. Lapho kukhona amanani afana ne-ACS asuke ekubeni nenani elingaphansi kwama-euro angama-40 aya kuma-euro ayi-12 ezinsukwini ezimbalwa. Yize kunjalo kuleli cala, selivele lathola amazinga asengagculisi neze ngezintshisekelo zabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi nendawo lapho amasheya alo enentengo engaphezudlwana kwama-euro angama-20. Okufana ncamashi nalokhu okwenzekile kulezi zinsuku kwezinye izinkampani ezihlanganiswe komunye wemikhakha emele kakhulu yezimali ezweni lethu.
Amaleveli okwehla komnotho
Akungabazeki ukuthi esinye isici esizothonya ukuvela kwenkomba ekhethiwe yamasheya kazwelonke, i-Ibex 35, sitholakala emazingeni okwehla kwamandla omnotho wezwe lethu. Ngoba empeleni, umsebenzi wayo uzobe ungaphansi kokudingekile kusukela kulo mzuzu oqondile ngakho-ke ungaba ngomunye wabazuzi abakhulu balesi panorama entsha yezomnotho esethulwe yona ezinyangeni ezizayo. Futhi kusukela kulo mbono, akungabazeki ukuthi amasheya abo angahle anciphise ezimakethe zezimali ezinyangeni ezizayo noma ezimeni ezinhle kakhulu eminyakeni ezayo. Ukuba ngomunye wemikhakha okufanele uyibhekele ukuyifaka kuphothifoliyo yethu elandelayo yokutshala imali. Kusuka kunoma yiluphi uhlobo lwephrofayili kubatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi, kusuka kwabaphakathi kakhulu kuya kwabanolaka kakhulu futhi ngaphandle kokunye okuhlukile.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, akukwazi ukukhohlwa ukuthi ukuze kuthule kusuka manje, izinkampani ezinaleli phrofayili yebhizinisi akufanele zingabikho kuphothifoliyo yesitoko. Kukhona eminye enemigqa ehlukahlukene kakhulu yebhizinisi esiza ukuvikela izikhundla ekuthengeni okuqhutshwa abasebenzisi besitoko. Ngethuba langempela lokuthi ekugcineni sizoqala kusuka kulokhu kuhamba emasakeni. Njengoba kungemva kwakho konke lokho okubandakanyeka nalolu hlobo lokusebenza ngezikhathi eziyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu ezimakethe zezimali ngokujwayelekile. Ngengozi enkulu kunezinye izikhathi zomlando ngoba esikhathini esifushane akukho mkhuba ohlukaniswa ngokusobala kunoma yiluphi uhlobo lwendlela kulolu hlobo lobudlelwano nezwe lemali elihlale liyinkimbinkimbi.
Buyela kokujwayelekile
Vele, kuzoba ngesinye sezici ezifanele kakhulu ukuze i-Ibex 35 ikwazi ukufinyelela ezingeni elibalulekile lamaphoyinti angama-8000. Ukuze ngale ndlela, amazinga afunwa kakhulu angabhekwa kusuka ezinyangeni zasehlobo futhi leyo ngenye yezinhloso ezisheshayo zabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi. Ngalesi simo jikelele, kuzodingeka ukuthi ucabange ngalezi zinsuku lapho kuzobaluleke kakhulu ukubuyela esimweni ngaphambi kokunwetshwa kwe-coronavirus. Ngesikhathi lapho izimakethe zamasheya zingazizwa khona manje ukuthi abatshalizimali basebenzise ithuba lokukhuphuka ukuthengisa izikhundla zabo emakethe yamasheya. Engxenyeni engenhla yesiteshi esithuthukile ngemuva kwesaphulelo esilethe inkomba ekhethiwe yemakethe yamasheya ezweni lethu emazingeni amaphuzu angama-6000.
Kulesi simo esivamile, ukuze ukwenyuka kuthembeke ngokwedlulele, ngeke sibe khona isimo esingcono sezinto ukubuyela kwesijwayelekile, okungenani maqondana nokubuyela emsebenzini nokukhiqizwa komnotho. Uma kungenjalo, ukukhuphuka kwemakethe yamasheya ngeke kuhambisane ngokwanele ukubheka ukuthambekela phansi okwaqala emasontweni okuqala kaMashi kunqotshiwe. Ngoba okuningi okubuyisiwe kukhiqizwe ngamandla amakhulu. Lapho kungenakukhohlakala khona ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla omnotho emhlabeni jikelele, eYurophu kanye naseSpain kungena ngokuphelele kwi-panorama yezinkampani ezibhalwe ezimakethe.
Futhi okudingekayo ukuthi ukujwayeleka emsebenzini kuyinto engokoqobo futhi ngale ndlela, i-Ibex 35 ingathatha lesi simo ngokuvumelana namanani aso. Ngethuba lokuthi ingaqondiswa kumazinga aphezulu kunalawo akhuliswe kule ndatshana. Ngemuva kwakho konke, kungenye yezinjongo ezisheshayo zabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi ukusukela manje.
Uhlelo lokuhlukaniswa kolayini wenani
I-Value Line Investment Survey mhlawumbe idume kakhulu ngohlelo lwayo oluqinisekisiwe lokugcina Isikhathi olufaka cishe amasheya ayi-1.700 ngokulingana kwentengo yokusebenza ezinyangeni eziyisithupha kuya kweziyi-12 ezizayo, ne-Safety ™. I-Value Line Technical Ranking yakhelwe ukubikezela ukunyakaza kwamanani esitoko esikhathini esiyizinyanga ezintathu kuya kweziyisithupha. Esimweni ngasinye, amasheya alinganiselwa kusuka ku-1 kuye ku-5, kanti i-1 iyisilinganiso esiphakeme kakhulu.
Ububanzi Bomugqa Wenani Lethuba. Ngokwalo mbono, kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi ukulinganiswa komugqa wamanani ngokwesikhathi esifanele kulinganisa ukusebenza okungenzeka okuhlobene kwamanani wamasheya acishe abe ngu-1.700 ezinyangeni eziyisithupha kuya kweziyi-12 ezilinganisweni esikalini esiqondakala kalula esisuka ku-1 (esiphezulu ) kuye ku-5 (ubuncane). Izingxenye zohlelo lokulinganiswa komugqa wamanani wokusebenza ngesikhathi zifaka izinto ezifana nenkambiso yeminyaka engu-10 yenzuzo nezintengo ezihlobene, izinzuzo zakamuva nezinguquko zamanani, nezimanga zenzuzo.
Yonke idatha ingokoqobo futhi iyaziwa. Uhlelo lwekhompyutha luhlanganisa lezi zinto zibe yisibikezelo sokushintshwa kwentengo kwesitoko ngasinye, ngokuhlobene nazo zonke ezinye izitoko ezihlukanisiwe ezinyangeni eziyisithupha kuya kweziyi-12 ezizayo. I-1.700-share Value Line universal imele cishe u-90% wemali efakwa ezimakethe zawo wonke amasheya athengiswa kuma-US exchange.
-Rank 1 (Ephakeme Kakhulu): Lezi zitoko, njengeqembu, kulindeleke ukuthi zenze okungcono kakhulu maqondana ne-Value Line universal ezinyangeni eziyisithupha kuya kweziyi-12 ezizayo (amasheya ayi-100).
-Rank 2 (Ngenhla kwesilinganiso): La masheya, njengeqembu, kulindeleke ukuthi enze intengo ehlobene kangcono kunesilinganiso (amasheya angama-300).
-Rank 3 (Isilinganiso): La masheya, njengeqembu, kulindeleke ukuthi asebenze ngentengo ehambisanayo ngokuhambisana ne-Value Line universe (cishe amasheya angama-900).
-Rank 4 (Ngezansi Kwesilinganiso): La masheya, njengeqembu, kulindeleke ukuthi abe nentengo yokusebenza okulinganiselwe ngaphansi kwesilinganiso (cishe amasheya angama-300).
-Rank 5 (Minimum): La masheya, njengeqembu, kulindeleke ukuthi enze amanani entengo amabi kakhulu (amasheya ayi-100).
Izinguquko ebangeni lamathuba zingadalwa yi:
Imibiko emisha yokuhola noma izibikezelo zenkampani.
-Izinguquko ekunyakazeni kwamanani kwesabelo maqondana namasheya asele alinganiselwa ku-1.700 asele okushicilelwe.
-Ukuhluka kuzikhundla ezihlobene zamanye amasheya.
Ububanzi bezokuphepha kolayini wenani
Umbandela wesibili wokutshala imali yizinga Lezokuphepha elinikezwe yi-Value Line kwisabelo ngasinye esilinganiselwa ku-1.700. Leli banga lilinganisela ubungozi besitoko maqondana nezitoko ezisele ezingaba ngu-1.700. Kususelwa ku-Stock Stability Index yesilinganiso sesitoko kanye nokukalwa kwamandla wezezimali wenkampani, womabili akhonjiswe ekhoneni elingezansi kwesokudla ekhasini ngalinye kuzilinganiso nemibiko ye-Value Line. Izilinganiso zokuphepha nazo zinikezwa esikalini kusuka ku-1 (okuphezulu kakhulu) kuye ku-5 (okuphansi kakhulu) ngokulandelayo:
-Rank 1 (Ephakeme Kakhulu): Lezi zimasheya, njengeqembu, yizimali eziphephe kakhulu, ezizinzile futhi ezinobungozi kakhulu maqondana ne-Value Line universal.
-Rank 2 (Ngenhla kwesilinganiso): Lawa masheya, njengeqembu, aphephile futhi ayingozi kakhulu kunaningi.
-Rank 3 (Isilinganiso): Lezi zenzo, njengeqembu, zinobungozi obuphakathi nokuvikeleka.
-Rank 4 (Ngezansi Kwesilinganiso): Lawa masheya, njengeqembu, ayingozi futhi aphephe kancane kunaningi.
-Rank 5 (Ephansi kakhulu): La masheya, njengeqembu, ayingozi kakhulu futhi aphephe kakhulu.
Amasheya anezinga eliphezulu lokuphepha avame ukuhlotshaniswa nezinkampani ezinkulu ezinemali; Lezi zinkampani ezifanayo nazo zivame ukuba namanani amancane aphansi kunamazinga okukhula ajwayelekile ngoba izimakethe zazo eziyinhloko zivame ukukhula kancane noma cha. Amasheya anezindawo zokuphepha eziphansi avame ukuhlotshaniswa nezinkampani ezincane futhi / noma zibuthakathaka kunezimali ezijwayelekile; ngakolunye uhlangothi, lezi zinkampani ezincane kwesinye isikhathi zinamathuba okukhula angaphezu kwesilinganiso ngoba ziqala ngenzuzo ephansi nenzuzo yenzuzo.
Kuxhunyaniswe nezikhathi zokwehla komnotho
Ukuphepha kubaluleke kakhulu ngezikhathi zokwehla kwamandla emakethe yamasheya, lapho abatshalizimali abaningi befuna ukuzama ukunciphisa ukulahleka kwabo. Njengasesimweni sethuba, irekhodi lokuphepha eminyakeni edlule liyamangalisa. Lapho idatha ifundwa, kutholakala ukuthi amasheya anamazinga aphezulu okuphepha ngokuvamile awehla ngaphansi kwemakethe yonke lapho amanani entengo ehla. Ithebula elihambisana nalokhu likhombisa ukuthi amabanga ezokuphepha asebenze kanjani kukho konke ukwehla okukhulu kwemakethe phakathi kuka-1966 nanamuhla.
Isifundo sicacile. Uma ucabanga ukuthi imakethe ibhekwe iphansi, kepha ukhetha ukubamba indawo etshalwe imali ngokugcwele kumasheya, gxila ku-Rank 1 noma ku-2 stock stocks. Futhi, ngasikhathi sinye, zama ukugcina iphothifoliyo yakho iphakeme ngangokunokwenzeka ngeThuba. Ungahle ungakwazi ukuthola amasheya anezinga eliphakeme kuzo zombili izimo. Ngemuva kwalokho kufanele unqume ukuthi yikuphi okubaluleke kakhulu: ukusebenza kwentengo ezinyangeni eziyisithupha kuya kweziyi-12 ezizayo, noma ukuphepha. Ukuyekethisa okubandakanya ukukhetha amasheya alinganiswe ngo-1 noma u-2 wokugcina isikhathi no-1 noma 2 wezokuphepha kungakufanele ukucatshangelwa.
Kuzo zonke izimo, kuyadingeka ukugcizelela iqiniso elimangazayo lokuthi indawo ebizwa nge-Value Line universal yamasheya ayi-1.700 imele cishe u-90% wemali efakwa ezimakethe zawo wonke amasheya athengiswa kuma-US exchange. Njengenye yezinketho zokutshala imali, isibonelo, enkombeni ekhethiwe yezimali ezweni lethu.