Kube nokuqagela okungapheli mayelana nohlobo lokuphindaphinda komnotho wase-US. Ngabe kuzoba ukululama okwenziwe ngo-V okusheshayo, noma isikhathi eside phakathi kokuncipha nokubuyiselwa okulandelayo (okwenziwe ngo-U)? Ezinye izindlela zokululama ziye zafaniswa nezinhlamvu "W" kanye "L".
Eqinisweni, leli sobho lama-alfabhethi “ekugcineni linendaba encane kakhulu,” ngokusho kukaVincent Deluard, inhloko yesu elikhulu emhlabeni wonke enkampanini yokutshala imali i-INTL FCStone. Ku-imeyili, uthe abatshalizimali akufanele badumale ngalokhu, ngoba, uyaphawula, "ukubikezela kwezomnotho, ukuzivocavoca okuyingozi ngezikhathi ezinhle kakhulu, akusizi ngalutho namuhla: asazi ukuthi kuzoba khona igagasi lesibili. yokutheleleka noma cha, ukwehla kwamandla emali noma ukwehla kwamandla emali, ukwehla komnotho we-balance sheet noma ijubili lesikweletu, njll. »
Ngakho-ke, ukwazi ukuthi izibikezelo azihlukile kakhulu kumasu ethu okutshala imali kufanele kuqinisekise. Kunoma ikuphi, ukwehla kwamandla emali kwe-coronavirus kungenzeka ukuthi sekuphelile, kepha kuyindlela ende ebheke "ejwayelekile."
I-GDP kuleli kota
UDelpard wafinyelela eziphethweni zakhe eziphikisanayo lapho ebala imbuyiselo yomtshalizimali ocabangayo okwazile ukubikezela ukuthi isibalo sokugcina seGDP sizoba ngamakamelo amane kusengaphambili. Lokhu kufaka izinga elimangazayo lokucaca, yebo, ngoba yisikhathi eside ngemuva kokuphela kwekota ethile lapho uhulumeni efinyelela inani lokugcina le-GDP kulelo kota.
Kodwa-ke, u-Deluard uthole ukuthi lo zimali ocabangayo, yize enezinto ezimangazayo, bekungeke kudlule isu elilula lokuthenga nokubamba kule minyaka engamashumi ayisikhombisa edlule.
Ikakhulu, wacabanga ukuthi lo zimali uzotshalwa imali ngo-100% uma ukukhula kwe-GDP kulezi zingxenye ezine ezisheshayo kushesha kunekota yamanje; ngaphandle kwalokho, uzotshala imali. Kusukela ngasekupheleni kweminyaka yama-40, lo zimali ubezosebenza kangcono kune-S & P 500 SPX, + 0,43% ngamaphuzu angaphansi kwephesenti elilodwa ngonyaka. Lowo ngumvuzo omncane kakhulu wokuba yi-tipster ephelele, ikakhulukazi ngoba izingqinamba ziyamangaza ukuthi izibikezelo zethu zizowela kude kakhulu.
Cabanga ukuthi okutholwe nguDelpard kusho ukuthini ngesimo sethu samanje esingaqinisekile, lapho singazi ngempela ukuthi umnotho ukhula ngokushesha kangakanani. Kepha besingeke sibe nethuba elincane kakhulu kunabatshali bezimali esikanye nabo noma ngabe besazi manje ukuthi ukukhula komnotho kuzoshesha kwikota yesibili yowezi-2021.
Kungani ulwazi ngezinga lokukhula komnotho esikhathini esizayo lubaluleke kangako? U-Deluard uthi kungenxa yokuthi imida yenzuzo kanye nezilinganiso ze-P / E zibaluleke kakhulu. Umnotho kungenzeka ukhule ngesilinganiso esisheshayo, ngemuva kwakho konke, kepha uma imingcele yenzuzo incipha lokho kukhula ngeke kuhumushe kube yinzuzo eyengeziwe. Futhi amaholo akhula ngokushesha awanakudlula njalo ukwehla kwe-P / E.
Ukuhola kwesikhathi esizayo kwezinkampani
Le ndima eyeqisayo edlalwe yi-P / E ratio ihlobene nesilinganiso sesaphulelo abasisebenzisayo abatshalizimali - ngokusobala noma ngokusobala - lapho bethola umholo ozayo wezinkampani. Ngezinga eliphezulu lesaphulelo, inzuzo eminyakeni ezayo isho okuncane ekulinganisweni kwamanje kwenkampani. Ngesilinganiso esisezingeni eliphansi, zibaluleke kakhulu. Eqinisweni, u-Deluard usanda kukhombisa ukuthi kuya ngesilinganiso sesaphulelo esisetshenzisiwe, i-S & P 500 manje isilinganiswe kahle phakathi kuka-1.851 no-3.386.
Akumangalisi ukuthi, njengoba uDelpard akubeka, ukwazi kusengaphambili izinga lokukhula kweGDP "akusizi ngalutho ngokumangazayo." Akukho kulokhu okushiwo ukuthi umnotho awunandaba. Kunendaba, kunjalo. Kepha umthelela wakho mkhulu kakhulu uma ugxila emakethe yamasheya yesikhathi eside. Ngezikhathi ezimfushane, umnotho udlala indima encane kunamamaki enzuzo namanani esaphulelo ahambisana nokulinganisa.
Le ngxoxo ibuye ibeke nombono ngempikiswano yakamuva mayelana nokunqamuka okubonakalayo phakathi kwemakethe yamasheya kanye nomnotho. Okukhonjiswa ucwaningo lukaDelpard ukuthi lokhu kunqanyulwa akukusha noma kukhulu kakhulu manje kunakwiminyaka edlule.
Abatshalizimali balindele ukuvuseleleka ngokushesha kwezomnotho njengoba i-NASDAQ 100 ishaya into entsha futhi i-S & P 500 iqeda ukulahlekelwa minyaka yonke. Inkomba yokulinganisa ye-S & P 500 yehle cishe ngama-34% kusukela ngo-February kuya phezulu kuya ku-Mashi low, kwaphoqa izimakethe zangena endaweni ye-bearish. Izitoko ezikhulayo zobuchwepheshe nezokuxhumana zithuthukise amaholo we-NASDAQ, izinkampani ezinjenge-Zoom zicishe zayiphindaphinda kathathu intengo yamasheya ayo kusukela ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari njengoba ukukhiya kuphoqa abathengi ukuthi bamukele izindlela ezintsha zokuxhumana.
Imakethe yezinkunzi entsha yaqinisekiswa emasontweni ayi-16 nje kuphela ngemuva kokwesaba kwe-COVID-19 lapho abatshalizimali bethengisa impahla yabo lapho kusatshwa ukwehla kwamandla omnotho e-United States.
I-NASDAQ inyuke ngama-44,7% ukusuka ezansi kwayo ngoMashi 23. Imakethe yezinkunzi ngokuvamile ibhekwa njengokunyuka okungaphezu kwama-20% ukusuka endaweni ephansi kakhulu.
Usomnotho omkhulu weBetaShare uDavid Bassanese ukholelwa ukuthi izimakethe zingaba nethemba eleqile ngokufihla ukuphakama kwangaphambili.
"Ekugcineni, ngiyasola ukuthi izimakethe zizoba nethemba ngokweqile ngejubane lokusimama komnotho, kodwa izimakethe zigcina ziqhutshwa ukugeleza kwezindaba zansuku zonke, obekuhlala kukhuthaza kakhulu selokhu kwavalwa umhlaba wonke kuyaqhubeka," esho.
Imininingwane yezomnotho engemihle
"Ngemuva kwakho konke, imakethe ibikade yehlise ngempumelelo imininingwane engemihle yezomnotho ehlobene nokuvaleka ngesikhathi kuthengiswa ngoMashi, ngakho-ke ibingavikelekile kule datha ngenkathi iqala ukuvela ezinyangeni ezedlule," kuchaza uMnu Bassanese.
Njengoba umnotho uqala ukuvuleka, isazi sezomnotho sithi isithombe esicace kakhudlwana sombono wezomnotho sizoba nomthelela emakethe yamasheya.
“Imakethe ikwazile ukugxila ezinzuzweni zokuvalwa maqondana nokuthambisa ijika, ukuvulwa kancane kancane futhi manje sekunezimpawu zokuqala zokubuyela emnothweni wakamuva wezomnotho. Kepha inselelo izofika ngemuva kokuqhamuka kokuqala kwedatha yezomnotho ngemuva kokuvulwa kabusha, uma idatha yokuvula kabusha ingaphansi kakhulu, njengoba ngicabanga ukuthi kuzoba njalo.
“Imakethe kungenzeka iqhubeke nokusebenza sengathi kunomhlangano omise okwe-V kuze kube kuba nobufakazi obusobala obuphikisana nalokhu,” kuqhuba uMnu uBassanese.
Okukhulise kakhulu imakethe ngumbiko wangoLwesihlanu wokuqashwa wanyanga zonke, okhombise ukwehla okungalindelekile kwezinga labantu abangasebenzi, okuqinisa imibono yokuthi umonakalo omkhulu wezomnotho oqubuke ekuqhamukeni kwegciwane uphelile.
Amasheya abekade eshayeke kakhulu kunakuqala ngenxa yokuvalwa, okubandakanya ezokuthutha, ezokuvakasha kanye nezimboni ezidayisa ezitolo, akhuphukile njengoba abatshalizimali bephenduka benethemba ngomhlaba ovinjelwe we-post-COVID-19. "Okwenzeka ngokusobala ukuthi injabulo yokuvulwa kabusha ivumela iningi lala mabhizinisi abeyizisulu ze-COVID-19 ukuthi abuye abuyele emsebenzini wawo," kusho uStanley Druckenmiller, uMongameli kanye ne-CEO yeDuquesne Family Office., kuya ku-CNBC.
Kodwa-ke, uMnu Bassanese uxwayise abatshalizimali base-Australia ukuthi baqaphele futhi babekezele uma bebeka imali emakethe yase-US.
“Ngisacabanga ukuthi sekuyisikhathi sokuqapha, ikakhulukazi uma ungakathenganga emhlanganweni we-equity yakamuva ngendlela enkulu okwamanje. Ukwesaba ukulahlekelwa manje sekukhulu, kepha ngiyasola ukuthi kungenzeka kube khona ukubuyela emuva okuhle ezinyangeni ezizayo - okungenani isigamu semali ebuyile kusukela ngasekupheleni kukaMashi - njengoba iqiniso lokubuyiselwa komnotho ngokulingene liyabonakala, "kusho uMnu. Bassanese .
Imiphumela enamandla yamazwe omhlaba ithuthukise amasheya asekhaya, kanti imakethe yase-Australia inyuke ngo-2,48% ngesikhathi sokushicilela.
Mkhuba Bearish emakethe yamasheya
Abatshalizimali bahlukaniswe kakhulu, kanti u-75% wabo ulindele ukululama okwenziwe ngu-U noma u-W kusuka ekuweni komnotho kwesifo se-coronavirus, uma kuqhathaniswa no-10% kuphela olindele ukwakheka kwe-V, ngokusho kocwaningo lwakamuva lwabaphathi. . Igagasi lesibili le-coronavirus liyingozi enkulu kakhulu yomsila, kanti abaphathi abangama-52% bahlolisisiwe beyibalula, kanti ukungasebenzi ngokugcwele (15%) ngokuphelele nokwehliswa kwe-European Union (11%) kuhlala endaweni yesibili neyesithathu.
Abaphathi bayazichitha izinkathazo zabathengisi njengoba amasheya ase-US asondela ezindaweni eziphakeme ze-tech bubble. Ikhambi akumele libe libi kakhulu kunesifo
Izimali zabaphathi abaningi zinciphisa ukuvezwa kokulingana ezingeni eliphansi kakhulu. Izinga lemali lehle kancane laya ku-5,7% lisuka ku-5,9% ngo-Ephreli, kepha lisengaphezulu kakhulu kwesilinganiso seminyaka eyishumi edlule ye-10%, okukhombisa ukuthi "Isiginali yokuthenga" ukubheja okuphikisayo.
Ngokuhambisana nalokhu kutshalwa kwezimali "okungahambisani neze kakhulu", abaphendulile yizimpahla zomjikelezo ezingaphansi kwesisindo, njengamandla nezimboni, futhi bayizimpahla zokuzivikela ngokweqile, njengokunakekelwa kwezempilo, ukheshi namabhondi. Inani eliphikisanayo nokukhula libuyile emazingeni enkinga yezezimali yangaphambi komhlaba, lapho kunabatshalizimali abangama-23% abakholwa ukuthi isitokwe sizokwenza kabi ukukhula, okuyisibalo esigcine ukubonwa ngoDisemba 2007.
Umbono wabatshalizimali
Iningi labaphathi (i-63%) lithe izinkampani zisebenziswe ngokweqile, zisekela umbono wokuthi abatshalizimali bafuna izinkampani ukuthi zisebenzise imali yazo ukwenza ngcono ama-balance sheet, ngo-73% kulindeleke lokhu, kuyilapho u-15% ufuna ukwanda kwe-capex no-7% bafuna ukuthi imali ibuyiselwe kubaninimasheya.
I-euro ibukeka ishibhile kwabaphendulile, ngenani eliwu-17% lisikisela ukuthi imali ayibhekiwe, kuyilapho inetha elingama-43% likholelwa ukuthi idola likhuliswe ngokweqile, yize ukuvezwa kwamasheya ase-US kuhlala kukhuluphele ngo-24% inetha kuyilapho izimali ze-Eurozone zingaphansi kwesisindo (17% net) , isabelo sabo esiphansi kunazo zonke kusukela ngoJulayi 2012.
Ngaphandle kwalokhu, i-UK ibiyisifunda esinesisindo esincane kakhulu kunhlolovo yale nyanga yabaphathi bezikhwama zomhlaba wonke, enesisindo esiphansi sika-33%. Ngenkathi ngakolunye uhlangothi kufanele kukhunjulwe ukuthi ukuhlelwa kabusha kohlelo lokuphakelwa, ukwanda kokuvikelwa kanye nezinhlobo ezintsha zentela ephakeme, kuhlala endaweni yokuqala ohlwini lwabatshalizimali ekushintsheni kwesakhiwo emhlabeni ngemuva koCovid, kucashunwe ama-68 %, 44% no-42% wesikhathi ngokulandelana.
Ukuyekelwa kwezikweletu, amandla aluhlaza, ukumiswa kwemali kanye nemali engenayo eyisisekelo nakho konke okukhona ohlwini lwangalenyanga lwezinguquko ezingaba khona ngemuva kokubhebhetheka.
Ukonga kumakhomishini
Ikakhulukazi abatshalizimali abenza imisebenzi eminingi ngonyaka, yomibili ebhekiswe esikhathini esifushane, esiphakathi noma eside, bangasebenzisa amathuba entengo emakethe yamasheya aqala ukuthengisa izikhungo zezezimali ezengeziwe futhi, ezivumela ukonga okukhulu ngokwamakhomishini imisebenzi eyenziwe. Izinga lalo liphakathi kuka-6 no-10 euros ngenyanga, futhi kumuntu owenza imisebenzi emine ngenyanga, isibonelo, ukonga kungasho cishe ama-euro angama-30 ngenyanga ngokwesilinganiso, okusiza nokwandisa utshalomali. Izinga eliphansi emakethe yamasheya livumela umsebenzisi ukuthi enze imisebenzi eminingi yokuthenga nokuthengisa njengoba befuna, njengamanani ocingo noma we-Intanethi. Yize ukusetshenziswa kwayo kungasakazeki kakhulu emkhakheni wezezimali, ikakhulu ihlanganisa amabhange namabhange okonga asebenza nge-Intanethi futhi wabathengi, kuzwelonke nakwamanye amazwe, okuyiwona ahlinzeka ngezimo ezihamba phambili.
Kunoma ikuphi, akukwazi ukukhohlwa ukuthi ukuthenga okuhle ezimakethe zamasheya kusho ukwenza inqubekela phambili eningi ukuze imiphumela yohlobo lokuzuza kwemali ingathathi isikhathi eside ukufika, kepha ngenxa yalokhu, uchungechunge lweziqondiso kanye nezinyathelo zokuphepha kumele kuthathwe ngenhloso yokuthi ukuthatha isikhundla esibi kungasinda ukutshalwa kwemali kwethu esikhathini esizayo, noma ngabe kuyindleko yokuthuthuka esikhathini esinamandla.
Ngaphambi kokuthatha izikhundla kwezokuphepha, kuyalulekwa ukuthi ufunde isici sayo sobuchwepheshe nesibalulekile, hhayi ukusishiya enkambweni engahleliwe engaletha izinkinga kuphela kuzintshisekelo zabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi, ikakhulukazi ngendlela yokukhubazeka.
Ukungena emikhakheni efanele kwenza lula umsebenzi wokukhetha lapho kwakhiwa iphothifoliyo, ngoba kungenzeka ithathe imizwa emihle yemakethe, noma ngabe yikuphi ukubheja okukhethiwe, inqobo nje uma imininingwane eyisisekelo yezinkampani iyinto enhle.
Ezimeni eziya phezulu, umthetho ovame kakhulu phakathi kwabatshalizimali abanolwazi kakhulu ukulinda ukwehliswa kwamanani ezinkampani ukungena emakethe ngamanani aphansi kakhulu, okungaholela ekwenyukeni okukhulu kwentengo. Inani futhi, ngakho-ke, likhulu amathuba wokubuyekeza. Lokhu kusikeka okuthile kwenzeka lapho kukhona "ukukhathala" okuthile ezikhundleni zokuthenga futhi ukuthengisa kuqala ukuntanta, okuwukuthi, lapho imakethe ithengwa ngokweqile futhi idinga ukulungiswa kwamanani ukuze iqhubeke nokukhuphuka kwayo phezulu. Lawa "makhefu" kunani lesilinganiso sentengo, lapho ukuthengisa kuqala ukuvela khona, kwenzeka kaningana ngesikhathi senqubo yokwenza izinto, ngisho nabahlaziyi bemakethe yamasheya bakuchaza ngokuthi "ukunyakaza kwemakethe okunempilo ngokuphelele”Lokho kusebenza kuma-indices, imikhakha noma amasheya ukuthola amandla athe xaxa kuzikhathi zokuhweba ezilandelayo. Zifanele ikakhulukazi labo batshalomali abakhombe isikhathi esifushane futhi bafuna ukukhipha lonke "ijusi" labo ekunyakazeni okuphezulu okutholwa yimali. Ngokuphambene nalokho, azisebenzi kahle kulabo abakhetha ukutshala imali kwabo esikhathini esimaphakathi nesikhathi eside ngoba imiphumela yabo ngeke iphumelele.
Ukuthenga amasheya aseduze namanani entengo yawo: Ngokusebenzisa amashadi kuzokwazi ukubheka amanani akulesi simo, ukuze kamuva uwathengise endaweni yokumelana, noma uma kwenzeka ukuthi izisekelo zephukile. Ngenye yamasu alula kakhulu asetshenziswa emakethe yamasheya, noma ngabe lokhu kudinga ukugcina ukulandelwa okufika ngesikhathi kwamanani entengo yabaqokelwe okungenzeka babe yingxenye yephothifoliyo yezokuphepha.
Ukuphepha okuye kwasetshenziswa: Ngenye yezimo ezinhle kakhulu kunoma yimuphi umtshalizimali okufanele abhekane nokuthenga, noma kunenkinga enkulu yokuthi kunzima kakhulu kwabasindisa ezitolo ukuthi bathole leli phuzu eliqondile futhi kumele basizwe ngokuhlaziya okwenziwa ngabalamuli abakhulu noma wabathengi ezezimali, ezishicilelwa kwabezindaba ezikhethekile. Ngaphambi kokuthatha izikhundla kwezokuphepha, kuyalulekwa ukuthi ufunde ngesici sayo sobuchwepheshe nesibalulekile.