Inkomba yeBuffet

Inkomba yeBuffet ilindele ukwehla ezimakethe

Ngemuva kwenhlekelele eshayayo futhi ukucwilisa i-GDP yawo wonke amazwe, amasheya abonakala sengathi athathe isiqondiso esiphikisayo. "Okuvelayo" kwemali okwenziwe yiCentral Banks kubonakala sengathi kukhuthaze ukubuyiswa kwezimakethe zamasheya. Kodwa-ke, kunamazwi amaningi aphakanyiswayo exwayisa ngokungajwayelekile futhi okungenangqondo kwalokhu kusabela okunamandla. Uma kungenjalo, eminye imikhakha kubonakala sengathi ilulame kangcono kunalokho obekulindelekile, kanti eminye ayitholakali kangako. Leli fomu lokululama kuholele abanye babahlaziyi ukuthi babikezele ukuthi ukululama kuzoba oku-K, hhayi ku-L, V, noma ukuthi kuphakanyiswe kanjani izinhlamvu ezahlukahlukene zama-alfabhethi ukuze zichaze ukuthi zizofika kanjani. Ngendlela ka-K, kuhloswe ngayo ukuchaza ubumbano obuzoba khona phakathi kwale mikhakha, omunye wabaphumelele kungumkhakha wezobuchwepheshe. Kodwa ingabe lokhu kululama kungokoqobo?

Abatshalizimali abaningi, bobabili abahlaziyi bezobuchwepheshe nabahlaziyi abayisisekelo, baphuthelwa yimikhuba ethile yeqembu elithile lamasheya. Lokhu kumayelana nokunye okufana ne-Zoom Video Communications, okukhuphuka kwayo kusukela ekuqaleni konyaka inani layo elalingama- $ 68 lafinyelela ezinsukwini ezimbalwa ezedlule u- $ 478 ngesabelo ngasinye, ukwanda okungaphezudlwana kuka-600%. Esinye isibonelo esihle kube nguTesla, onesitoko sakhe sisuke ku- $ 84 ekuqaleni konyaka (kwahlukaniswa kwahlukaniswa) kuya ekuhwebeni ngaphezulu kwama- $ 500 ezinsukwini ezimbalwa ezedlule, ukukhuphuka kwama-500%. Kwenzakalani? Ngabe kungenzeka ukuthi babe ngabanqobi noma ngabe bakhuliswe ngokweqile? Ngaphandle kokuya ekuhlaziyweni kwezezimali kwezinkampani ukusebenza kwezimakethe zamasheya okungaphezulu kakhulu kwesilinganiso, singakhetha ukuba nombono womhlaba jikelele wokuthi izimakethe zitholakala kuphi. Ngalokhu sizosebenzisa i- «Buffet Index», esizokhuluma ngakho namuhla.

Yini iBuffet Index?

Incazelo yokuthi iyiphi inkomba ye-buffet

Izinkomba ezibaluleke kakhulu e-United States zaziwa kuwo wonke umphakathi wokutshala imali. Phakathi kwazo sineNasdaq 100, efaka amasheya abaluleke kakhulu ayi-100 embonini yezobuchwepheshe, iDow Jones Industrial Average 30, ekala ukuvela kwezinkampani ezinqunyelwe umphakathi ezingama-30, kanye ne-S & P 500, lapho kube khona kakhulu omele umnotho waseNyakatho Melika namaqembu ezinkampani ezinkulu ezingama-500. Kodwa-ke, kukhona ezinye izinkomba ezingaziwa kangako, kepha ezingabalulekile kangako kulokho. Inkomba lapho ifomula yokukhipha inkomba yeBuffet ihlala khona yinkomba yeWilshire 5000.

I-Wilshire 5000 iyinkomba lapho zonke izinkampani eziphawulekayo zibhalwe khona, ngaphandle kwama-ADR, izinkampani ezinqunyelwe nezinkampani ezincane. Ingatholakala ngaphansi kwe-ticker "W5000". IWilshire, ibuye ibe nokululama okuphawulekayo njengezifana nayo. Konke lokhu esimeni lapho kuphazamiseke ukuvalelwa, ukumiswa ezitolo, nokuphazamiseka kwezomnotho ngenxa yokuphazamiseka komjikelezo wezomnotho "wemvelo". Yonke le micimbi ihunyushelwe kumaconsi abaluleke kakhulu futhi angacabangi ku-GDP yeminotho eyahlukene.

Icala lobunye elisikhathazayo kule ndatshana futhi elisuse ama-alamu ukuthi inkomba yeBuffet, elinganisa isilinganiso sosonhlamvukazi sebonke beWilshire 5000 kuya ku-GDP (Umkhiqizo Wekhaya Wonke) wase-United States usezingeni eliphezulu ngokwedlulele. Ngakho-ke, le nkomba isebenze kuze kube namuhla njengesibikezelo esihle sokuphahlazeka okubaluleke kakhulu emakethe yamasheya. Isibonelo, ukubaluleka okukhulu okuthathe kubhamuza le-dot-com. Ukuze sikuqonde, ake sibone ukuthi ibalwa kanjani.

Ibalwa kanjani i-Buffet Index?

Ibalwa Kanjani Inkomba YeBuffet

Indlela ebalwa ngayo i-Buffet Index ilula impela. Imayelana nokuthatha inani lofeleba eliphelele le-Wilshire 5000 bese ulihlukanisa yi-GDP yase-U.S. Inombolo evelayo ukubonakaliswa kwamaphesenti kobuhlobo obushiwo, futhi ukuyiveza njengephesenti, okuyindlela enikezwa ngayo empeleni, iphindaphindwe ngo-100.

Ukuhumusha kahle umphumela, kufanele qonda ukuthi iphesenti lisitshelani. Ukuze ube nomhlahlandlela kanye / noma ireferensi, lobu budlelwano obulandelayo banele.

  • Amaphesenti angaphansi kuka-60-55%. Kungasho lokho izikhwama zishibhile. Ukwehla kwephesenti, kukhulu ukungabaluleki abanakho.
  • Amaphesenti azungeze ama-75%. Akubizi noma kushibhile, isilinganiso semlando. Imakethe ibingalinganiselwa kahle. Uma imvelo inhle, amasheya kungenzeka abe nohambo olubheke phezulu kulesi simo. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, uma imvelo iba nobutha ngokwengeziwe, amanani aphansi angaba khona.
  • Amaphesenti amakhulu kuno-90-100%. Kukhona labo abathanda umugqa wama-90s, kanti abanye umugqa oyi-100. Kodwa kunganqunywa kanjani, kulezi zimo izikhwama ziqala ukubiza. Ukuphakama kwephesenti, kubaluleka kakhulu.

Ngenkathi kunokuphahlazeka kwe-dot com, amasheya ayeku-137% futhi ewela kuma-73% (isilinganiso sayo somlando singasho). Esimeni esibucayi sezezimali, amasheya ayengaba ngu-105% futhi ewela kuma-57% (okusho ukuthi, ayengabalulekile).

Ngemuva kokubikezela… Sikuphi manje?

Izimakethe zamasheya zomhlaba zingaya kuphi?

IWilshire 5000 inemali esetshenziswayo njengamanje engaba ngama- $ 34 trillion. Ezinsukwini ezimbalwa ezedlule waze wenza imali engaphezu kwezigidigidi ezingama-36! Lokhu ngokubuka kwe-GDP yase-USA ukuthi njengamanje kungenxa yokuwa komnotho ku-19 trillion isinikeza inani elingu-174% (ama-34 trillion ahlukaniswe nge-19 trillion ephindwe ngo-5). Ingabe Ukuhwebelana Ngezitoko Kukhuliswe Kakhulu? Impendulo i-priori futhi ngaphandle kokungabaza ingaba ngu-yebo. Akukaze ngaphambili, noma kubhamu le-dot-com elilinganiselwe cishe ngama-137%, asebefinyelele kwirekhodi lamanje le-174%. Kwenzekani futhi yini esingayilindela?

Uma sikhuluma iqiniso, ngemuva kweminyaka yokuhlangenwe nakho kotshalomali, kwesinye isikhathi kunzima ukulindela okuzokwenzeka, kepha uma kwenzeka, besilokhu sinendawo yokubheka. Kungenzeka ukuthi inkomba yeBuffet isixwayise, njengakwezinye izikhathi ezedlule, zokuphahlazeka kwemakethe yesitoko esizayo. Kodwa-ke, ukuvela kwesizukulwane esisha sabatshalizimali nabaqageli, okwamanje okwaziwa ngokuthi yiRobinhood ngenxa yokuvela kwezinhlelo zokusebenza ezivumela ukutshalwa kwezimali ngezindleko eziphansi, ngandlela thile kubumba isimo sezimali sezimakethe. Lokhu, kwengeze ekungeneni kwemali okunamandla ezimakethe nakwezomnotho okwenziwa yiCentral Banks, kuphakamisa nokwesaba ukwenyuka kwamandla emali, okuzothi uma kudluliswa emnothweni kukhuphuke amanani entengo, kunciphise ubudlelwano phakathi kweGDP nemali engenayo. .


Okuqukethwe yi-athikili kunamathela ezimisweni zethu ze izimiso zokuhlelela. Ukubika iphutha chofoza lapha.

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Ikheli lakho le ngeke ishicilelwe. Ezidingekayo ibhalwe nge *

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  1. Ubhekele imininingwane: Miguel Ángel Gatón
  2. Inhloso yedatha: Lawula Ugaxekile, ukuphathwa kwamazwana.
  3. Ukusemthethweni: Imvume yakho
  4. Ukuxhumana kwemininingwane: Imininingwane ngeke idluliselwe kubantu besithathu ngaphandle kwesibopho esisemthethweni.
  5. Isitoreji sedatha: Idatabase ebanjwe yi-Occentus Networks (EU)
  6. Amalungelo: Nganoma yisiphi isikhathi ungakhawulela, uthole futhi ususe imininingwane yakho.