Kuleli sonto kuzoba nomhlangano obhekwe ngabomvu e-United States Federal Reserve (FED) lapho amanani enzalo engehliswa. Lokhu okungenani kuyinjongo kamongameli wamanje wase-US. Donald Trump ocindezela ukuthi lesi sinyathelo sisebenze. Ngesikhathi lapho amafu amnyama egubuzela umnotho wamazwe omhlaba naphezu kokusebenza kahle komnotho e-United States. Kunoma ikuphi, ekupheleni kwesonto kuzoba nesinqumo, ngenye indlela noma enye.
Kuzoba ukuzimisela okuzoba nomthelela oqondile ezimakethe zezimali. Kokubili ohlangothini nolunye lwe-Atlantic nalapho izinkulungwane nezinkulungwane zabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi bazobe besalindile. Ukuze kwenziwe isinqumo sokuthi kufanele yini ukuvula noma ukuvala izikhundla ezimakethe ezehlukene zokulingana. Ngokuqondile ngesikhathi lapho amasheya emhlabeni wonke angaguqula ukuthambekela kwawo kwamanje. Lapho kuzodingeka khona ukuguqula isu lokutshala imali ukwenza imisebenzi isebenze.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi lesi sinqumo se-United States Federal Reserve (FED) naso singaba nomthelela Izinqubomgomo zezimali zendawo ye-euro. Yize kulo mqondo, sebevele bakhombisile ukuthi inzalo ngeke ishintshe, okungenani kuze kube yingxenye yokuqala yonyaka ozayo. Ngenxa yamathemba amabi okukhula komnotho endaweni ye-euro eminyakeni embalwa ezayo. Lapho intengo yemali isezingeni layo eliphansi kakhulu eminyakeni yamuva, ngqo ku-0%. Lokho wukuthi, imali ayisho lutho futhi lokhu kuyinto enomthelela nakumanani esitoko.
Kala ukukhuphuka e-United States
Ngalo mqondo, kufanele kukhunjulwe ukuthi i-United States inyuse amazinga ayo wenzalo ngamaphuzu angama-0,25, kusuka ku-2% kuya ku-2,25% minyaka yonke okwamanje ungene. Izinga lenzalo lingenye yamathuluzi anamandla kakhulu amabhange amakhulu anazo ezandleni zawo ukwenza inqubomgomo yawo yemali. Phakathi kwezinye izizathu, ngoba ukukhuphuka kwamazinga wenzalo kusebenza ukunqanda ukwehla kwamandla emali nokuvikela imali, phakathi kweminye imisebenzi. Ngakho-ke ukubaluleka kwesilinganiso i-United States Federal Reserve engasithatha kuleli sonto.
Akunakulibaleka ukuthi lokhu kwehlukahluka kwenzeka okokuqala kusukela ngoSepthemba 27, 2018, lapho iBhange Elikhulu likhuphule inzalo ngamaphuzu angu-0,25, lafinyelela emazingeni angu-2%. Uma ngabe kwehla emanani enzalo ingaqhutshwa ngamandla ephuzu lekota ukubuyela emuva kumazinga we-2%. Ukusikeka kokuqina okukhulu akulindelekile njengoba kungamukelwa kabi ngabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi. Ikakhulukazi ngoba kuzokhombisa ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali kungaba kubi kakhulu kunalokho obekulindelwe ngabahlaziyi bezezimali.
Izothonya kanjani imakethe yamasheya?
Enye yezinto ebakhathaza kakhulu abatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi umthelela walesi silinganiso semali ezimakethe zezimali. Ngalo mqondo, konke kubonakala kukhombisa ukuthi ngeke kube nomthelela onodlame kakhulu kuma-indices emakethe yamasheya amakhulu emhlabeni jikelele. Mhlawumbe esikhathini esifushane ukunyakaza okuthile, abathengi noma abathengisi, bangakhula babuyele kokujwayelekile ezinsukwini ezizayo. Lapho, futhi, kungaba amanani we umkhakha wamabhange okushayeke kakhulu emalini yamazwe omhlaba. Onyakeni lapho besele ngemuva ngokusobala ngemuva kwezinye izingxenye zebhizinisi, ezifana nogesi.
Ngenkathi ngakolunye uhlangothi, kubalulekile futhi ukugcizelela ukuthi umkhakha wezezimali ukhombisa amanani cishe emlandweni osezingeni eliphansi. Kepha kungaba yiphutha elikhulu ukuvula izikhundla ngoba amanani abo angehla ngisho nangaphansi kunamanje. Ngokwalokhu kubukwa, akunakushiwo ukuthi amanani abo ashibhile ngokwesimo samanje samazwe omhlaba. Hhayi ngeze, kuningi imibuzo ezoxazululwa kusuka manje. Futhi ngenxa yalesi sizathu ngeke kube khona okunye abangakwenza ngaphandle kokungabikho ezikhundleni zabo okungenani izinyanga ezisasele kuze kube sekupheleni konyaka.
Umphumela omncane we-bullish
Empeleni, ukwehla kwamanani wenzalo yi-United States Federal Reserve kungaba nomthelela ngokulingene bullish ezimakethe zokulingana. Kepha ngobude obulinganiselwe ngoba bekungancishiswa kube izikhathi ezimbalwa zokuhweba nokuncane kakhulu. Ngaphandle kokuthi ukwehla kwamanani e-United States kube namandla amakhulu angalindelwe abahlaziyi abakhulu bezezimali. Uma kunjalo, akungabazeki ukuthi esinye isimo esihluke kakhulu kuleso esiboniswe kulolu lwazi sizokwenzeka.
Kunomthetho wegolide ezimakethe zamasheya othi ukwehla kwamazinga wenzalo kuvuna ukukhula kwezimakethe zezimali. Phakathi kwezinye izizathu, ngoba kukhona ifayela le- imali eningi yokwenza imali kuzimpahla ezehlukene zezimali. Phakathi kwabo, ukuthengwa nokuthengiswa kwamasheya emakethe yamasheya. Okusho ukuthi, ngemuva kwakho konke, yini enentshisekelo kubatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi. Ngaphezulu kolunye uchungechunge lokucatshangelwa kwezobuchwepheshe futhi mhlawumbe futhi kusukela ekubukeni kwezisekelo zamanani wemakethe yamasheya.
Shintsha kuthrendi kuma-indices
Kunoma ikuphi, konke kubonakala kukhombisa ukuthi uguquko luyenzeka ezimakethe zokulingana emhlabeni jikelele. Ukusuka ku-bullish uye kwi-bearish, njengoba ezinye izinkomba zokubaluleka okukhethekile zikhomba. Kungaba yithuba lokuthi uvune izinzuzo kubantu abanezimali zabo endaweni enhle. Ikakhulukazi uma kubhekwa ukufika kwamaholide alandelayo ehlobo. Izinyanga ezimbalwa ezingazweli kakhulu ekukhuleni okuphawulekayo kuma-stock indices ukuze kuthuthuke. Uma kungenjalo kunalokho okuphambene, njengoba kwenzekile eminyakeni yamuva.
Ngenkathi sikwelinye, kufanele futhi sithembele ekwehleni okucacile okukhona emnothweni omkhulu womhlaba. Kuyamangaza kakhulu ukuthi amasheya asele emazingeni aphakeme kangako engxenyeni yokuqala yalo nyaka. Lapho, ngokwesibonelo, i-Ibex 35 isamile ngenhla kwamaphoyinti angama-9.000 nangokubuyekeza okuncane kulo nyaka. Yize ukuwa emasontweni edlule kusuka ekuphikiseni okunamaphuzu azungeze i-9.400 ne-9.500 amaphuzu.
Khetha amasheya azivikelayo
Ngokombono wengxenye enhle yabahlaziyi bezezimali, konke kubonakala kukhombisa ukuthi ekugcineni indlela eyehlayo ingaba yisixazululo ezimakethe zezimali. Ngalesi sizathu beluleka ukuthatha izikhundla ku- amanani wokuzivikela ngaphezulu ukuthi bangaziphatha ngendlela engcono kunokunye. Kunoma ikuphi, konke kukhombisa ukuthi ukujika okuphansi kubonakala kuyindaba yezinsuku, amasonto noma mhlawumbe izinyanga ezimbalwa. Ngokuya ngokuhlukahluka okuningi okungathuthukiswa kusuka kulezi zikhathi eziqondile futhi okuzoba yizo ezizocacisa ukuqina kwalokhu kuhamba ezimakethe zezimali.
Futhi kungakhohlwa ukuthi izimali zombuso bezilokhu zisezingeni eliphakeme kakhulu kuze kube yizinsuku ezimbalwa ezedlule. Ngaphansi kwe- phezulu lokho kwaqala ngo-2013 futhi lokho akuyekile ukukhuphuka kulesi sikhathi eside. Ngaphandle kokuthi ukulungiswa okunengqondo kwenziwe ekuvumelaneni kwamanani abo.
Ukukhishwa kwezokuphepha endaweni ye-euro
Izinga lokukhula konyaka nonyaka lokulinganisela okusele kokuphepha kwezikweletu okukhishwe yizakhamuzi zendawo ye-euro kwakungu-2,3 ngo-Ephreli 2019, uma kuqhathaniswa no-2,4% ngoMashi, ngokusho kweBhange laseSpain. Ngenkathi ngakolunye uhlangothi, futhi maqondana nebhalansi esalele yamasheya asohlwini akhishwe abahlali bendawo ye-euro, izinga le- Ukukhula kwe-YoY kwehle kusuka ku-0,4% ibhaliswe ngoMashi 2019 yehla yaya ku-0% ngo-Ephreli.
Ukukhishwa okuphelele kwezikweletu zabathengi bezindawo ze-euro kufinyelele ku- € 634,5 billion ngo-Ephreli 2019. Amortizations ayengama- € 650,8 billion kanti izingqinamba zazingama-euro ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-16,2. Izinga lokukhula minyaka yonke lesamba semali esalele esikhishwe yizakhamuzi zendawo ye-euro simi kuma-2,3% ngo-Ephreli 2019, uma kuqhathaniswa no-2,4% ngoMashi odlule. Lapho, isilinganiso sokuhluka kwaminyaka yonke sebhalansi esalele yamasheya wesikweletu sesikhathi eside ezingeni lenzalo eguquguqukayo sama ku -1,8% ngo-Ephreli 2019, uma kuqhathaniswa ne--2,7% ebhaliswe ngoMashi. Izinga le- Ukukhula kwe-YoY kwehle kusuka ku-0,4% ibhaliswe ngoMashi 2019 yehla yaya ku-0% ngo-Ephreli.