Ngabe izilinganiso zamasheya ase-US zingaqhubeka nokushaya imali ephezulu ngo-2020? Lona ngomunye wemibuzo abatshalizimali abaningi abancane nabaphakathi abebelokhu beyibuza unyaka omusha. Izimpendulo ezivela kubahlaziyi bezezimali abahlukene azifani futhi kuvela izimo ezahlukahlukene uma kuqhathaniswa nemakethe yokuqala yamasheya emhlabeni. Ngezizathu ezishayisana zodwa ngaphandle kwabasebenzisi be-stock market abalindele ukungena kule makethe yezimali ezinyangeni ezizayo benempendulo ebonakalayo.
Abekho abahlaziyi abambalwa abalindele ukuthi imakethe yamasheya yaseMelika izokwenza uthinte ophahleni noma lesi simo sisondele kakhulu. Ngenkathi abanye benombono wokuthi lokhu kungukucaca okusobala okuzohlala okungenani eminye iminyaka embalwa. Kunoma ikuphi, kunento eyodwa ebekelwe abatshalizimali futhi manje sekwephuze kancane ukuthi bangene ezikhundleni zale makethe yezimali ebalulekile. Njengoba uphuthelwe yizigaba ezinamandla kakhulu zalokhu kukhuphuka. Lapho bekwazile ukwenza imisebenzi enenzuzo ngenzuzo ephezulu kune-0%, into ebikade ingenzeki iminyaka eminingi.
Esinye isici okufanele sisicabangele ngalesi sikhathi yi- ukwehluka okucacile ekhombisa ukulingana kwe-USA nalezo zezwekazi lakudala. Ngoba ngenkathi kweyokuqala inamandla kuzo zonke izikhathi zokuhlala unomphela kwelaseYurophu, ihamba ngaphansi kwenkambiso ye-lateral izinyanga eziningi futhi evimbela ukunyakaza ukuthi kwenziwe ukuze kutholakale imali enkulu. Ukuzikhawulela ekuhambeni kwebanga eliphansi futhi ngenzuzo engalindelwe yingxenye enhle yabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi.
I-US Stock Exchange: Ungaya kuphi?
Iqiniso ngalesi sikhathi ukuthi imakethe yamasheya yaseMelika ayizitholi izithiyo ekukhuleni kwayo okukhulu. Nge- ingcindezi yokuthenga lokho kwehlule umthengisi ngamandla okungajwayelekile ukubonwa ezimakethe zamasheya futhi okuholele ekutheni kuvulwe izikhundla eziningi eminyakeni yamuva. Kuze kufike ezingeni lokuthi sekukhona ukumelana okuncane kakhulu ngaphambili kulokho okungaba umfutho wokugcina oya phezulu wemakethe yokuqala yezezimali emhlabeni. Ngaphandle kwamanani entengo yakamuva i-United States ayibeke eBrazil, e-Argentina naseFrance futhi lokho kudale ukulungiswa okuqinile ezinkampanini ezinkulu zamasheya emhlabeni jikelele.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kufanele kuphawulwe ukuthi nganoma yisiphi isikhathi lo mkhuba ungaphela futhi ngalomqondo kuzodingeka ukuthi unake kakhulu izimpawu zokuqala ezinikezwa yilezi zimakethe zezimali. Ngoba sigcizelela ukuthi ukulungiswa kungenziwa ngamandla amakhulu futhi kunjalo ngaphezu kwezinye izikhathi ngenxa yezici ezikhethekile ezenziwa ngamasheya ase-US ngalo mzuzu oqondile. Futhi lokho kwenzeka njengenye ye-bullish kakhulu emhlabeni jikelele. Lapho abatshalizimali bekwazile ukwenza imali yabo etshaliwe ukuthi izuze cishe nge-100%. Ngamanye amagama, isikhathi esivumayo kakhulu sezintshisekelo zabasebenzisi bezimakethe zamasheya.
Kuze kusho uTrump
Okunye ukucabanga okusingathwa ezimakethe zezezimali zaseMelika ukuthi imakethe yamasheya izoba namandla okungenani kuze kubanjwe ukhetho lukamongameli kulelizwe nalapho uDonald Trump ezokhetha khona ihlandla lakhe lesibili. Eqinisweni, kungenye yezimpumelelo zakhe ezinkulu enhlokweni ye-White House selokhu abiza kakhulu, imakethe yamasheya yaseMelika ayikaze inyuke kuze kube manje. Lokhu ngokuqinisekile kungenye yezimpumelelo zakhe ezinkulu kakhulu kumongameli, futhi awufuni ukwehla ngomzuzu wokugcina emakethe yamasheya ukulimaza ukukhethwa kwakho kabusha. Ngokwalo mbono, abekho abahlaziyi bezimali abambalwa abengesabi ukwehla kwamanani amasheya kulesi sikhathi sokhetho.
Umongameli waseMelika uzokwenza konke okusemandleni ukuze isimo esikhona emakethe yezimali siqhubeke njengoba kunjalo manje. Ngaphandle kokunquma ukuthi singabuyela ekuqopheni okuphezulu kuma-stock stock ase-US. Vele, ngeke baphinde bamangaze abatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi futhi kuzoba yithuba lokugcina lokuthatha izikhundla kulezi zimpahla zezimali ukwenza ukonga okunenzuzo futhi bakwazi ukuthola izinzuzo ezingaba yi-10% noma i-20% kuye ekwenyukeni okungenzeka kusuka manje. Kulokho okungalungiswa njengokuphela komjikelezo oya phezulu ongazange ube nesikhathi esilinganayo kwezinye izikhathi zomlando.
Izinjongo zango-2020
Kunoma ikuphi, enye yezinhloso zabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi ngalesi sikhathi ukuzama ukuqongelela inzuzo ngaphambi kokhetho lukamongameli e-United States. Ngakho-ke, imisebenzi kumele yenziwe ngokushesha engxenyeni yokuqala yalo nyaka, ngoba kowesibili, isimo esishubile singaba yimbangela ejwayelekile kumanani ezokuphepha kwabo. Mhlawumbe awasekho amanye amathuba okukhiqiza lezi zinzuzo zemali emakethe yamasheya aseMelika. Uma kungenjalo, ngokuphambene nalokho, singasuka kusuka ku-uptrend ngokusobala siye ku-bearish ngesikhashana esifushane kakhulu. Ngakho-ke, qaphela kakhulu ngezikhundla ezinde kusukela manje.
Akumangalisi ukuthi izingozi ekusebenzeni ziyanda ngenxa yamanani afinyelela emazingeni aphezulu ekhotheshini. Ngalo mqondo, kungakhohlwa ukuthi ukugula okuphezulu kungenye yezitha eziyinhloko zalezi zimakethe zezezimali. Kuze kube seqophelweni lokuthi kungenzeka ukuthi abatshalizimali abathatha izikhundla kule makethe yezezimali bangabanjwa yizibambiso. Lokho wukuthi, kude kakhulu namanani okuthengwa ngakho-ke unezinkinga zokwenza ukunyakaza okunenzuzo emakethe yamasheya.
I-American noma i-European Stock Exchange
Ngale ndlela, kujwayelekile kakhulu ukuthi abatshalizimali bangabaze phakathi kokutshala imali kumasheya aseYurophu noma, kunalokho, baqhubeke kwelaseMelika. Kuyiqiniso ukuthi eyokuqala ingabiza okwamanje, kepha imibandela yokuhlaziywa kwezobuchwepheshe ayizithandeli kangako izintshisekelo zabasebenzisi. Yize ngakolunye uhlangothi, izingozi ziphansi njengoba ingazange ithuthukise ukwanda okubukhali njengase-US. Ngokwalo mbono, akungabazeki ukuthi kungahle kube nokudluliswa kwephothifoliyo yezokuphepha ngalesi sikhathi nasezinyangeni ezizayo. Njengoba abatshalizimali beqala ukukwenza izinyanga ezimbalwa.
Kodwa-ke, awukwazi ukukhohlwa ngenketho yezimakethe ezaziwa njengokunye futhi okungaba yizo ezinikeza inzuzo enhle kakhulu. Hhayi kuzo zonke izimakethe, kodwa kuphela kulezi ezinamandla kakhulu okwamanje ezitholakala eChina naseNdiya. Ngaphandle kweqiniso lokuthi ukulungiswa kwamanani, akukho kungabaza ukuthi azoba namandla kakhulu kusukela manje, kepha angasetshenziswa ukuthenga amasheya ngentengo yokuncintisana kakhulu. Kepha ekugcineni, kuzobuye kutholakale amandla okuhlaziya abanzi, okungenani esikhathini esifushane naphakathi.
I-Andbank Spain inomthelela kulesi sici lapho “yamukelwa khona ukwamukela ukuthi rally Kube ngenxa yokwanda kokuphindaphindeka (isimo esincanyana), kepha yize i-S & P ingabiza maqondana ne ukhesheKubonakala kucacile ukuthi kushibhile maqondana nezibopho; ezinikezela nge-IRR engu-1.75%, kanti i-equity inikeza i-IRR engu-5.26%, elinganiswa ngokuhlanekezela kwe-PER.
Njengakho konke, ngithemba ukuthi ngiphendule lo mbuzo ngendlela egculisayo ”. Ukukhetha ukuthi izimakethe zezimali e-US zizoqhubeka nokukhuphukela phezulu ngonyaka ozayo.
Ukusebenza okuncane emakethe yamasheya kazwelonke
Ngokwalo mongo wamazwe omhlaba, kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi izimali zaseSpain zizovalelisa unyaka ngokuncipha okuthile ekusebenzeni kwazo, ngokusho kwedatha enikezwe yiBolsas y Mercados de España (BME). Lapho kukhonjiswa khona ukuthi ukunyakaza emakethe yamasheya kufinyelele kusabelo semakethe ku- ukuthola izinkontileka zaseSpain ezingama-77,09% ngoNovemba. Ububanzi obumaphakathi bekungamaphoyinti esisekelo angu-4,88 ezingeni lentengo yokuqala (i-17,7% ingcono kunendawo elandelayo yokuhweba) namaphoyinti ayisisekelo we-6,61, ngokujula kwama-25.000 euros encwadini yoku-oda (43,9, XNUMX% kangcono), ngokusho kweLiquidMetrix ezimele bika.
Kunoma ikuphi, lezi zibalo zifaka ukuhweba okwenziwa ezindaweni zokuhweba, zombili encwadini yokubonisa okusobala (i-LIT), kufaka phakathi indali, nokuhweba okungabonakali (dark) eyenziwe ngencwadi. Ngenkathi ingxenye yayo, ukuhweba ngemali engenayo engaguquki ngalesi sikhathi kwaba ngama-euro ayizigidi ezingama-24.965 ngoNovemba. Lesi sibalo simele ukwanda ngo-0,9% uma kuqhathaniswa nevolumu ebibhaliswe ngenyanga edlule. Ingqikithi yenkontileka eqoqiwe ngonyaka ifinyelele kuma-euro ayizigidi ezingama-319.340, okusho ukukhula kwe-67% maqondana nezinyanga eziyishumi nanye zokuqala zika-2018.