Vele, imvelo ye-macroeconomic emakethe yamasheya izothatha isinqumo esikhulu ukuze ezinyangeni ezizayo sikwazi ukwenza iphothifoliyo enobulungiswa futhi elinganiselayo. Ngenhloso yokwenza amaphutha ambalwa ngangokunokwenzeka futhi nokwenza ngcono inzuzo yokonga kwethu, okungukuthi, ngemuva kwakho konke, imayelana nani kulezi zikhathi. Akwanele ukukhetha ukuphepha okuhle kakhulu ezimakethe zamasheya, kepha ukuzivumelanisa nezimo zezimakethe zezimali. Ukuze ngale ndlela, imbuyiselo esiyitholayo kusukela manje kuqhubeke isebenze kangcono kakhulu kuze kube manje.
Ngalesi simo jikelele, akungabazeki ukuthi amathuba amasha ebhizinisi ayavela emakethe yamasheya ngaso sonke isikhathi. Ngisho nasendaweni eguqukayo yemvelo efana naleyo engakhula kusuka manje. Ukuba esinye sezizathu ezifanele kunazo zonke ingxenye enhle ye- izenzo zabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi bayalibala. Ilindele okungenzeka emnothweni nakweminye yemingcele yayo efanelekile.
Ukuze ukwazi ukuthuthukisa noma yiluphi uhlobo lwecebo lokutshala imali ngemvelo ehlukile ye-macroeconomic emakethe yamasheya, sizokunikeza okunye okhiye ababaluleke kakhulu okufanele ufake isandla kusukela manje kuqhubeke. Ukuze ukwazi ukwenza imisebenzi yezimakethe zamasheya ngokuphepha okukhulu futhi ngaphezu kwakho konke, uzivikele ekuphazanyisweni okungenzeka ezimakethe zezimali. Vele, ngeke kube nzima kakhulu ukufeza futhi kungakunika injabulo enkulu ezinsukwini ezizayo. Ngaphandle kokunye ukucatshangelwa kobuchwepheshe futhi mhlawumbe futhi kusukela ekubukeni kwezisekelo zayo.
Imvelo yezomnotho: amazinga wenzalo
Akungabazeki ukuthi kuzoba ngesinye sezici ezizobeka inkambo emakethe yamasheya eminyakeni ezayo. Ngaphambi kwesinqumo esithathwe abaphathi bezezimali, ngandlela thile. Yize bezovula umpompi ngentengo yemali noma uma, ngokuphambene nalokho, konke kuzoqhubeka njengoba bekulokhu kuze kube manje. Okusho ukuthi, nge ukushibilika kwentengo yemali nokuthi isize malini izinkomba zamasheya ezwenikazi elidala ezikhuphuke ngamandla amakhulu eminyakeni emihlanu edlule. Ingxenye enhle yabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi bazokwazi ngalesi sinqumo esizothinta izintshisekelo zakho ebudlelwaneni bakho nezwe lemali.
Ngenkathi ngakolunye uhlangothi, ungakhohlwa ukuthi sibhekene nemvelo ye-macroeconomic emakethe yamasheya ethinteka yi ukwehla komnotho wamazwe omhlaba. Futhi lezi akuzona izindaba ezinhle kubatshalizimali, ingasaphathwa izinkampani ezibhalwe ezimakethe zokulingana. Ngoba esimweni se-macroeconomic semakethe yesitoko esishintshayo, ngeke ube nenye indlela ngaphandle kokushintsha iphothifoliyo yakho yokutshala imali ukuyibeka ngezikhathi ezintsha esizophila ngazo kusukela manje kuqhubeke.
Wabopha umnotho
Okunye okumele kucaciswe ezinyangeni ezizayo ukuthi umnotho uzokwehla kangakanani. I- izimakethe zezimali eziqondiswayo ezithathayo, ngenye indlela noma enye. Futhi kufanele uzilungiselele ukubhekana nalesi simo esisha ngokungangabazeki esingavela nganoma yisiphi isikhathi. Ngokushintsha kwecebo lokutshala imali okufanele uluthathe emavikini azayo. Ezweni eliguqukayo njengoba kwenzeka futhi emakethe yamasheya futhi lokho kungakwenza ulahlekelwe yimali eningi noma, kunalokho, ukuwine.
Ngalo mqondo, okufana kakhulu nezenzo zakho noma akukho kungabaza ngokuthi kuzoba umqondo ojwayelekile nokuqapha ukusebenzisa noma yiluphi uhlobo lwecebo lokutshala imali. Ngoba akukho kungabaza ukuthi okugembulayo kuyimali yakho futhi lokhu kufanele kukwenze ucabange ngezenzo okufanele uzingenise kusuka manje. Akumangalisi ukuthi iqiniso lokuthi kungahle kube ne- ushintsho lomjikelezo webhizinisi noma kunini. Ngakho konke lokhu kuphenduka kuthatha imvelo ye-macroeconomic emakethe yamasheya. Ngaphandle kolunye uchungechunge lwezinto okufanele uzicubungule manje.
Ukushisa ngokweqile ezikhwameni
Vele, lesi yisici okufanele sithathwe ukuthatha izikhundla emakethe yamasheya. Ngoba akukho kungabaza ukuthi izimakethe zamasheya zikhuphuke kakhulu ezinyangeni ezedlule, ngamasheya lokho ubonge cishe ama-50%. Futhi kulo mqondo, kunamazwi amaningi axwayisa ukuthi ukulungiswa kusondele kakhulu futhi kuzo singashiya ama-euro amaningi endleleni. Akufanele sikhohlwe lesi sici uma singafuni ukuba nezinye izimanga ezinyangeni ezizayo. Yize kuliqiniso ukuthi ukuphepha okuningi kusilele emuva eminyakeni yamuva, futhi ikakhulukazi leyo engaphansi komkhakha wamabhange.
Kulesi simo se-macroeconomic emakethe yamasheya akunakulibaleka ukuthi enye yezindlela eziphephe kunazo zonke okufanele ibe kuyo ukuqedwa ngokuphelele. Ukugwema izimo ezingezinhle ezimakethe zezimali nokuthi lokho ngokungangabazeki kungenzeka esikhathini esithile kusukela manje kuqhubeke. Ngalo mqondo, kungaba nesimo esibucayi kakhulu okufanele usicabangele lapho uhlela isu lakho lokutshala imali. Ngomqondo owodwa noma omunye futhi lokho kuzodinga uhlelo olulodwa noma olunye ukuphoqa izenzo zakho emakethe yamasheya. Ngochungechunge oluphelele lokuguquguqukayo olungavela nganoma yisiphi isikhathi nasesimweni.
Ezinye izingozi ziya phezulu
Umnyango wokuhlaziya i-Bankinter ukhomba ezingozini ezahlukahlukene, phakathi kwazo okulandelayo okugqamile: Ukuhweba kweSino-American, IBrexit, umjikelezo waseYurophu kanye nokubalwa kwabantu. Lapho amathemba wezingxoxo zeSino-American athuthukile. Yize manje sidlula "kumnyama kubomvu" maqondana neBrexit, umphumela wayo wokugcina ngeke ube ngowonakalisayo (ukunwetshwa kwezinsuku zokugcina nokusetshenziswa kwesigatshana sokuvikela ukuhweba ngempahla).
Kukhombisa futhi nokuthi umjikelezo waseYurophu usuyisizinda sabantu abasengozini kakhulu futhi esiphikisayo sihlanganisiwe njengesisongo esibi kakhulu ekwakhiweni kokukhula komnotho, ikakhulukazi eYurophu. Ngalo mqondo, azithandeki kakhulu kubatshalizimali thatha izikhundla ezimakethe zokulingana. Noma okungenani hhayi ngamandla amakhulu njengoba kungaba ezimweni ezinhle kakhulu.
Izici ezithandekayo zemakethe yamasheya
Kunezimpikiswano ezine zokuchaza lesi simo ezimakethe zezimali ngokubona komnyango wokuhlaziya weBankinter. Kuyizimali, amanani wenzalo, inzuzo yezinkampani, kanye ne-inertia yebhizinisi lomhlaba jikelele. Ukweqiswa kwemali okwethulwe ngamabhange amakhulu kwaveza lokho ngokwandiswa komnotho womhlaba bayaqhubeka nokunyusa amanani entengo akhuphuke. Ngisho neFed izomisa ukukhipha isikweletu ngoba ibheka ukuthi ngoSepthemba usayizi webhalansi yayo uzobe usanele.
Futhi akubonakali sengathi izokhuphula amanani futhi. Eqinisweni, alikho ibhange eliphakathi neliphezulu elizokhuphula amanani ku-2019 (okungenani). I- izinzuzo zebhizinisi Ziyaqhubeka nokukhula ngejubane elifanele (i-S & P 500 + 9,7% ngo-2019, isibonelo) futhi umjikelezo womhlaba wonke ugcina i-inertia yayo ebanzi, yize ilahlekelwe amandla. Le nhlanganisela ingaba namandla kuphela ezimakethe zamasheya njengesigaba sempahla futhi ikakhulu uma sibheka ukusilela kwezinye izindlela zokutshala imali ezinenzuzo: amabhondi anezithelo eziphansi kakhulu noma ezingezinhle, amadiphozithi ahlala ekhonjelwa ezindlekweni nasezithengisweni zezindlu esezivele zisezingeni eliphezulu.
Ngaphandle kokulindela okuningi ezikhwameni
Kusuka emnyangweni wokuhlaziywa kweBankinter bathanda ukukhetha, njengekota edlule: sibeka phambili imakethe yamasheya aseMelika, bese sithatha ubungozi obukhulu, iBrazil neNdiya. Sihlala ngaphandle kweYurophu neJapane, amandla awo angenakho ukuheha. Lokho akukashintshi. Bakholelwa ukuthi kufanele ukudalulwa, kepha ngombono wesikhathi obanzi. Ukulinganiswa kwayo okubuyekeziwe kuphakeme kunezinyanga ezi-3 ezedlule, ngaphandle kweNikkei 225, etholwa yimali elindelekile engathandeki.
Izibikezelo zokuhlaziywa kweBankinter zikhuphula amanani azo I-EuroStoxx 50, Ibex 35 ne-S & P 500 ngoba ezinyangeni ezi-3 ezedlule isivuno semakethe (i-IRR) sezibopho zebhentshimakhi seminyaka eyi-10 sehle kakhulu ngokulingana kunombono wemiphumela yenkampani esibuyekezwe phansi. Lokho kukhuphula ukulinganiswa ngandlela thile, kepha kususelwa kungxabano engakhuthazi: amanani wenzalo aphansi, kususa ukuthi izinzuzo ezilindelwe zibuyekezwe phansi. Izibikezelo zingamaphuzu angama-9.815 we-Ibex 35, 3.634 we-EuroStoxx 50 no-3.249 we-S & P 500.
Konke lokhu kumongo wedola eliqinile (phakathi kuka-1,13 no-1,20), i-yen incane ukubuthakathaka kunalokho obekufanele (124/130) no-oyela kubize kakhulu kunalokho obekuzohambisana inqunywe yi-OPEC nokuthi ingaqhubeka.