Ibhange lotshalo-mali laseMelika uMorgan Stanley selibuyekeze izilinganiso zalo zamabhange aseSpain ngemuva kokuthi i-European Central Bank (ECB) imemezele ngoLwesine ngesinqumo sayo sokugcina inzalo ibe ngu-0% okungenani kuze kufike engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka wezi-2020. Lokhu kungaba umkhondo ukusetha up iphothifoliyo yokutshala imali lapho ubuya ngamaholide. Ngenhloso enkulu yokwenza ukonga kube nenzuzo esikhathini esifushane. Kodwa-ke, lesi sinqumo sizoncika ekutheni isinqumo se- khuphula amanani enzalo kulindeleke kwikota yokuqala yonyaka ozayo.
Kepha kuzobe kungewona umkhakha kuphela ongazibeka kuwo kulesi sikhathi sonyaka. Uma kungenjalo, kunalokho, kukhona abanye abangasebenza njengesiphephelo ezinyangeni zokugcina zonyaka. Lapho ngokungangabazeki ukuthi okunye kokugxila kuzoba yi I-Banco Santander okungenye yezokuphepha ezinamandla amakhulu okukhula. Ngoba empeleni, amabhange okutshala imali akholwa ukuthi imakethe ayiboni ukuthi kungenzeka yini ukwehliswa kwezindleko eSantander kanye nokwehla kwemikhawulo yokulawulwa kokuphakanyiswa kweFederal Reserve. Ngakho-ke, naka leli nani elibalulekile ku-Ibex 35.
Akumangalisi ukuthi sizobhekana nenye yezindawo ezinhle kakhulu ezimakethe zezimali zonyaka. Lapho ukuhlaziywa sekube yinto ejwayelekile eminyakeni yamuva futhi okuhambisana nokujwayelekile Irally yephathi yekhisimusi. Lapho kunokukhula kokucushwa kwamanani emazingeni we-5% noma i-10%. Ngakho-ke, kufanele silungele lesi simo esisha onyakeni ngokusebenzisa iphothifoliyo yezokuphepha elinganiselwe kuzo zonke izingxenye zayo.
Imikhakha esikhwameni: ukwakhiwa
Akungabazeki ukuthi uma izimakethe zamasheya zikhuphuka kule ngxenye yokugcina yonyaka, omunye wemikhakha yemakethe yamasheya ezodonsa izinkomba ezinkulu ukwakhiwa. Kulokho asikho isigaba sokungabaza ngasohlangothini lwabahlaziyi abakhulu bezezimali. Ngokwanda kokulinganiswa kwayo ngamandla amakhulu kunanoma yimuphi omunye umkhakha wamasheya. Ngalo mqondo, iFerrovial ingaba yiqiniso ithuba lebhizinisi ngenxa yaphezulu okukhona njengamanje. Ngethuba lokubuyekeza elingelutho, ikakhulukazi uma ukuthambekela okujwayelekile kwezimakethe zezimali kuyinto enamandla kulesi sikhathi.
Ngenkathi ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuma okungaba khona ku- Inkampani yokwakha ye-ACS lokho kukhombisa isici sobuchwepheshe esingashayeki. Noma lokhu bekulokhu kwenzeka ngezikhathi ezimbi kakhulu ezimakethe zokulingana. Ngokwalokhu kubheka, kungenzeka ukuvula izikhundla kuleli nani elibalulekile le-Ibex 35 ngoba lingasebenzisa ngokunenzuzo ukusebenza okungcono ezimakethe zezimali. Inenzuzo enkulu kakhulu ezikhathini ezibanzi zomnotho wezwe nowamazwe omhlaba.
Amabhange ahwebelana ngesaphulelo
Uma njengamanje kunomkhakha obhekwa njengongabhekiwe kahle, awukho omunye ngaphandle komkhakha wamabhange. Kuze kube manje lena yi-annus horribilis yayo lapho yehle khona ngamandla amakhulu. Njengomphumela wesinqumo se- I-European Central Bank (ECB) yokunganyusi amanani entengo endaweni ye-euro futhi okuholele ekutheni izinzuzo zamabhange zehle ngalesi sikhathi. Futhi lokho sekuholele ekutheni ihwebe kakhulu eduze nesikhathi sayo sonke. Kwezinye izimo, ngokwesibonelo eBanco Sabadell ngaphansi kweyunithi elilodwa le-euro. Njengobuthakathaka bezinye izinhlangano.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, akukwazi ukukhohlwa ukuthi umjikelezo wezomnotho awuhambisani neze nokuziphatha kwawo njengokwanelisa ukwedlula konke. Ngochungechunge lwemibuzo evulelwa abatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi ukusukela manje mayelana nokuthi kungakuhle yini ukuvula izikhundla kulo mkhakha. Lapho umqondo ukhona ukuthi lezi ziphepho zingakwazi shintsha ukuthambekela kwakho engxenyeni yokugcina yonyaka. Futhi-ke banamandla okubuyekeza amasheya abo abaluleke kakhulu kunamanje. Okungukuthi, ngemuva kwakho konke, ukuthi ngabe umhlaba wezotshalomali umayelana nani.
Ukunakwa kwamanani wokujikeleza
Uma kunomkhakha ongakwenza ngempela emakethe yamasheya, akungabazeki ukuthi amasheya ajikelezayo. Kepha ukwenza njalo, kuzofanele ithuthukise amathemba emnothweni wamazwe omhlaba. Vele, ukuphela kwendlela yokwenza kangcono kunangezinye iziphakamiso zemakethe yamasheya ezakha izinkomba zezimali zikazwelonke. Ngaphandle kolunye uchungechunge lokucatshangelwa kohlobo lobuchwepheshe futhi mhlawumbe futhi ngokubuka kwezisekelo zalo. Kunoma ikuphi, kuyizinketho zokutshala imali okufanele zibe gqoka i-radar ukukala ukuthi kungenzeka yini ukubafaka kuphothifoliyo yakho elandelayo yokutshala imali.
Ngenkathi ngakolunye uhlangothi, kuyiqiniso ukuthi kungenye yezindlela ezinonya kakhulu zokubhekana nemakethe yamasheya kulezi zinyanga ezisele zonyaka. Ukuze kufezeke isifiso sakho ebesikade usilinde ukuthi uthole imbuyiselo enhle kakhulu kulondolozo lwakho kusuka manje Ikakhulu, kuziphakamiso emakethe yamasheya njenge Arcelor Mittal noma i-Acerinox. Yize kusuka kuzikhundla ezibonakala ngokuguquguquka kwazo okuphezulu. Lokho ukusho, ngomehluko obaluleke kakhulu phakathi kwezintengo zayo eziphakeme nezincane futhi ezingadlula kalula amazinga we-5%.
Ukudla njengesiphephelo
Kuhlala njalo kukhona isisetshenziswa sokubheka kulo mkhakha wama-equities uma isimo semakethe yamasheya singesiso esifanele kule ngxenye yokugcina yonyaka. Phakathi kwezinye izizathu, ngoba ungasivikela ezinkambisweni ezingazinzile kakhulu ezimakethe zezimali. Njengoba lokhu kuyizibambiso lapho ingxenye enhle yabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi baphephela khona. Nge isivuno sesabelo esihle nokuthi bangaziphatha kangcono kunabanye. Izizathu ezanele zokukhetha lelisu elikhethekile lokutshala imali.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, lawa amanani avame ukuhlupheka kancane ukusuka ekuweni okungenzeka ezimakethe zezimali, kokubili kuzwelonke nangaphandle kwemingcele yethu. Ngokuthambekela okuphezulu kokulingana ekwakhekeni kwamanani ayo. Kuzo zonke izimo, akungabazeki ukuthi sizovikeleka kakhulu kunakuqala ezinyangeni ezedlule imakethe yamasheya ibingakagcinwa kusuka kuzo zonke izinhlangothi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, izosebenza njengomhlahlandlela wesenzo sokuhlala sixhumene nezimakethe zezimali kulezi zinyanga ezizayo.
Khetha ezinye izindawo zomhlaba jikelele
Okuwukuphela kwempendulo onayo okwamanje ukuthi okunikezwayo okunikezwa ngamasheya aseSpain kufushane kakhulu. Ngamanani ambalwa kakhulu ahlangabezana nalezi zici ezithile futhi ngakho-ke kuzodingeka ucabange kangcono ngesinqumo sabo sokugcina. Akunandaba nesici sobuchwepheshe esiboniswa yilezi zimakethe zamasheya. Yize ungahlala uya kwezinye izindawo zomhlaba lapho lezi zimpahla zezimali zikhona kakhulu. Isibonelo, esikhwameni se- I-United States noma iGreat Britain.
Kulesi simo esedlule, awunakuzikhethela ngaphandle kokuthatha izindleko eziphakeme zokusebenza ngenxa yokuthi zithwala amakhomishini athe xaxa ngenxa yokuphathwa noma ukunakekelwa kwawo. Kepha ezimweni eziningi, ungangabazi ukuthi leli su lokutshala imali lizofaneleka. Ngoba imiphumela kuzo zonke izimo izoba yinhle kakhulu kunamanje. Okuwukuphela kosuku okubandakanyekayo kulawa macala ngaphezu kwamanye amachungechunge amasu okutshala imali anolaka kakhulu.
Gwema ukuwa esikhwameni
Lapho izimakethe zamasheya zibhekana nokuwa okufika ku-4% noma ku-5% nsuku zonke, kukhona okungahambi kahle emakethe yamasheya futhi, ukulahlekelwa kungafakwa kwizimali izinyanga eziningi. Ngokufanayo, ama-rebound angaba namandla amakhulu akhombisa ukungazinzi okukhulu kwezimakethe futhi kuphela abatshalizimali abanolwazi kakhulu abasebenzisa le minyakazo engazelelwe. Kukhona nezindinganiso ezingalahlekelwa ngaphezulu kuka-6% emini, okukhombisa ubungozi obukhulu bokutshala imali manje.
Kwanele ukukhumbula ukuthi umtshali-zimali otshalile imali eyi-10.000 euro, ngokwesibonelo, uzobe elahlekelwe yilolo suku inani elingacabangi lama-euro angama-500 nokuthi, uma beqhubeka nomkhuba wabo, ukulahlekelwa kungafinyelela ku-1.000, 2.000, 3.000… ama-euro. Futhi uzolithola nini? Mhlawumbe izinyanga ezimbalwa, kepha akunakwenzeka ukuthi kuze kufike amanani entengo, kungadlula iminyaka embalwa, kuhlanekezelwe ukutshalwa kwezimali okwenziwe ngabasebenzisi. Kungakho-ke lapho ukungazinzi kungena ezimakethe zamasheya, abatshalizimali abathengisayo kumele bakhethe ukusuka kude nabo futhi bakhululwe abanye abanolwazi oluningi abanganqikazi ukubhekana nalezi zingozi.