Konke kuhlala kufana kunqubomgomo yemali endaweni ye-euro, ngemuva komhlangano wakamuva wokuthi I-European Central Bank (ECB). Esithangamini nabezindaba, umengameli wayo, uMario Draghi, uphawule wathi umhlangano womkhandlu "awusebenzi." Lapho, amanani enzalo ayesezingeni eliphansi ngokomlando, phakathi kuka-0% no-0,4%. I-ECB iphinde yagcizelela ukuthi kulindeleke ukuthi "bahlale emazingeni akhona okungenani kuze kube sekupheleni kuka-2019." Ngenxa yalokhu kusebenza, uMario Draghi uqobo uzophatha umqansa wakusasa, njengoba isikhathi sakhe siphela ngo-Okthoba walo nyaka.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, okuwukuphela kwemvume ye-EU emkhakheni wamabhange ukuthi i-ECB yavuma ukuthi icubungula ukwethulwa kwendali entsha yemali yamabhange. Okusho ukuthi, ukuthuthukiswa kwemali mboleko enezimo ezinhle noma okufanayo, ngenani lenzalo elincintisana kakhulu kunamanje. Kepha ngokujwayelekile kudumaze ingxenye enhle yabahlaziyi bezezimali ababelindele isimo esinamandla kakhulu sokubhekana namabika wokwehla komnotho kule ndawo.
Kube nokulindela okukhulu ezimakethe zezimali zokuthi ekugcineni baphoxwe yiziphetho ze-EU. Njengomphumela walesi senzo emkhakheni we-European Central Bank, ukusabela kwezimakethe zezimali kube ngukudumala okulingene. Yize ngaphandle kokuqina ekunciphiseni kwamanani, ngisho nakulabo abasemkhakheni wamabhange kusukela ukuwa kwabo kube ngokulingene. Ngokwehla kwesimo esimweni esibi esesondele ku-1%. Ukuba umkhakha wemakethe yamasheya uthinteka kakhulu yizitatimende ezenziwe ebhange elikhipha iYurophu.
I-ECB: amazinga enzalo ahlala efanayo
Eqinisweni, konke kwehla eqinisweni lokuthi amanani enzalo endaweni ye-euro ahlala ezingeni elifanayo njengoba bekulokhu kuze kube manje. Ngamanye amagama, emazingeni asondele kakhulu ku-0%, okusho ukuthi inani lemali alikho nhlobo. Ngenkathi ngakolunye uhlangothi, lesi simo semali sokuthi amakhredithi akhombisa ukuthambekela okuhle kakhulu kubafakizicelo babo. Ngesizathu esilula, futhi lokho kukusiza ukuthi ufeze izintshisekelo ngokuya ngokwalokho okulindele. Noma okufanayo ngezimali ezishibhile ezizobasiza ukuze izinga lesikweletu lingabi phezulu, okungenani esikhathini esifushane.
Ngenkathi ngakolunye uhlangothi, leli qhinga lezezimali lingavuni izintshisekelo zamaqembu ezezimali ngoba azothola izinzuzo ezincane ekukhiqizeni wonke amakhredithi. Vele, leli qiniso lizoba nomthelela oqondile esitatimendeni sakho semali engenayo kwikota ngayinye futhi ngale ndlela lingathinta ukulinganiswa kwamasheya akho ezimakethe zezimali. Ekugcineni, abatshalizimali bazothinteka kakhulu ngalezi zinyathelo ezithathwe ngaphakathi kwe-European Central Bank.
Umthelela emikhakheni yemakethe yamasheya
Akungabazeki ukuthi noma iyiphi isilinganiso semali noma ushintsho luyabonakala ezimakethe zezimali. Futhi kungaba kanjani okuncane, nalokhu kwenzeka ngokufana ncamashi. Ngemikhakha ethile yamasheya ephuma nabaphumeleli nabaphumelelanga kule ngxabano ngezezimali eziphezulu. Ngaphandle kokunye ukucatshangelwa kobuchwepheshe futhi mhlawumbe futhi kusukela ekubukeni kwezisekelo zayo. Ngokulungiswa okubucayi kwamanani wamasheya abhalwe emakethe yamasheya, njengoba ngakolunye uhlangothi kunengqondo ukucabanga futhi lokho kwenzeka kulezi zinsuku.
Ngalo mqondo, kufanele kushiwo ukuthi umkhakha othinteka kakhulu ukunganyakazi e-European Central Bank ngamabhange. Yize ukusabela kwabo bekungekhona okungekuhle obekulindelekile kulezi zimo. Ngokwehla okuncane okuholele ekutheni amanani emabhange abe ngaphansi kakhulu kunasekuqaleni konyaka. Lesi yisizathu esenza abanye abatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi banqume ukuthatha izikhundla emkhakheni ukuzama ukwenza imisebenzi yabo ibe nenzuzo esikhathini esifushane noma esincane.
Ama-electrics ayanqoba
Ngokuphambene nalokho, izinkampani zikagesi zingabanqobi abasobala balesi simo jikelele ngenani lenzalo eliphansi kakhulu futhi eliseduze no-0%. Ngesizathu esilula kakhulu sokuchaza futhi lokho kungenxa yezinga eliphakeme lesikweletu lezi zinkampani ezisitholile. Manje kubazuzisa kakhulu ukuthi lesi simo siyaqhubeka, okungenani izinyanga ezimbalwa ukuzama ukukhokha isikweletu sabo ngezimo ezingcono ekuqashweni kwabo. Lezi yizindaba ezinhle ukuthi izinkampani ezibalulwe kulo mkhakha obalulekile wezimali ezweni lethu kufanele zithole. Kepha iqiniso belilokhu lihlukile impela.
Ukwanda okulindelwe isikhathi eside ezinkampanini ezisemkhakheni kagesi akwenzekanga ngenxa yeqiniso okulula ukuliqonda futhi okusho ukuthi lezi zinhlobo zikhuphuke kakhulu ezinyangeni ezedlule. Ngokuthola isivuno esifinyelela ku-30% kwezinye izimo futhi okuye kwaphakamisa inani lephothifoliyo lengxenye enhle yabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi. Kumazinga angacabangeki eminyakeni embalwa edlule. Awukwazi ukukhohlwa ukuthi ezinye zalezi zinkampani njengamanje zisesimweni samaphawundi akhuphukayo. Kuyinto enhle kunazo zonke engenzeka ekuvikelekeni kwezimakethe zezimali. Akumangalisi ukuthi abasenakho ukumelana okufanelekile ngaphambili.
Izibikezelo zalo nyaka
Izilinganiso ezenziwe ngumnyango wokuhlaziya weBankinter ngokuhamba kwemali zihamba ngendlela efanayo. Njengoba umjikelezo ulahlekelwa umfutho ku-EMU, ngenxa yokwehla kwesidingo sangaphandle. I-GDP inyuke yaya ku- + 2,1% ku-Q2, uma kuqhathaniswa ne- + 2,4% ku-Q1 kanye + 2,5% ngokwesilinganiso ngo-2017. Ukuthumela izinto kuhamba kancane kuya + 3,2% vs + 5,5% ngo-2017. Izinkomba eziholayo nezizethemba zilinganisela izinga lokwehla, ngemuva kwezinyanga zokuncipha.
Kunoma ikuphi, bahlala emazingeni aphezulu, avumela ukuzethemba ekuqhubekeni komjikelezo obanzi. "Isibikezelo sethu sokukhula ngo-2019 manje sesingu-1,8% uma kuqhathaniswa ne- + 1,9% phambilini." Baphinde baveze ukuthi “Asilindele ukuthi i-ECB ishintshe umgwaqo wayo. Ukuthengwa kwempahla (15.000 million euro ngenyanga) kuzophela ngoDisemba. Yize kuphela i-QE, inqubomgomo yezimali isazoqhubeka nokusetshenziswa, ngokuvuselelwa kokuvuthwa kanye nokuholwa phambili ngamazinga wenzalo. Ngokuphathelene nokwehla kwamandla emali, i-core CPI (+ 0,9%) isesekude nalokho okubhekiswe ku-ECB (eduze kodwa ngaphansi kuka-2%). Kodwa-ke, izingcindezi zezindleko zemvelaphi yangaphakathi (izindleko zamaholo,…) ziyanda, okunciphisa ukungaqiniseki ngokuziphendukela kwabo kwesikhathi esizayo.
Izinguquko ekupheleni konyaka
Izibikezelo zaleli bhange laseSpain zisemgqeni wokuthi maqondana nezinga lesethenjwa, singabona ukunyakaza kokuqala ngasekupheleni kuka-2019 kusuka ku-0,0% yamanje kuye ku-0,10%. Ngo-2020 sibona ukwanda okusha okuhamba kancane okungabeka inani lesethenjwa elizungeze u-0,40% ekupheleni konyaka. Kancane nje ezilinganisweni zakho ebezikhula zisuka e-European Central Bank, njengoba kusanda kuvezwa emhlanganweni wokugcina wesigungu esiphezulu sebhange elikhipha izwekazi elidala.
Kuzoba ngaleso sikhathi esiqondile, lapho bengaphendula khona amatafula emikhakheni yemali engenayo kazwelonke. Ngomqondo wokuthi amabhange angaqala kabusha indlela eya phezulu ayishiya eminyakeni eminingi edlule. Ukuba ngesinye sezigaba lapho kudingeka khona ukuzibeka ekwenzeni ukonga okunenzuzo ngempumelelo enkulu. Ngoba kulindeleke ukuthi kukhuphuke amanani abo abalulekile. Ukufika ezingeni lokuthi kungaba ngomunye wemikhakha enenzuzo enkulu kusukela ngonyaka ozayo. Ikakhulukazi kucatshangelwa izinga lentengo abathengisa ngalo ngalesi sikhathi esiqondile.
Ushintsho olukhulu emakethe yamasheya
Ngenkathi ngakolunye uhlangothi, kungakhohlwa ukuthi leli qiniso lizokwehlisa imikhakha yemakethe yamasheya ekhombisa izikweletu ezinkulu, njengezinkampani zikagesi, njengoba sishilo phambilini. Ukuthi bangangena ekuhambeni okuphansi okuyingozi ngokweqile kwezintshisekelo zabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi abathathe izikhundla kulo mkhakha. Ngesimo esihluke ngokuphelele kulokho okuphilayo okwamanje. Lesi ngesinye sezizathu esenza ukuthi ukutshalwa kwemali emakethe yamasheya kufanele kuthathwe ngokuhlola ukusebenza kwesikhashana. Ukugwema izimo ezingafuneki zengxenye esebenzayo yazo.
Le ndlela kufanele isiholele ekushintsheni isu lethu ekwakheni iphothifoliyo yezokuphepha. Ngokusebenzisa imodeli yokuphatha esebenzayo esivumela ukuthi sivumelane nazo zonke izimo zezomnotho ezingaba khona. Kokubili okuhle kakhulu futhi okungekho kangako. Lapho kunoma ikuphi, amathuba ebhizinisi azoqhubeka nokuvela ezimakethe zezimali ukuze zingachithwa abasebenzisi. Ukufika ezingeni lokuthi kungaba ngomunye wemikhakha enenzuzo enkulu kusukela ngonyaka ozayo. Ikakhulukazi kucatshangelwa izinga lentengo abathengisa ngalo ngalesi sikhathi esiqondile.