Vele, enye yezindaba ezifanele kakhulu kulo nyaka ukusebenza okuhlukile kwe-United States stock index, iDow Jones. Kuze kube seqophelweni eliphezulu ngaso sonke isikhathi ngemuva kokukitaza inkunzi iyagijima obhekene nakho kule minyaka embalwa edlule. Akumangalisi ukuthi iyinkomba yamazwe omhlaba ene-bullish kunazo zonke futhi, nakanjani, ngaphezulu kwezaseYurophu. Ukungabaza okukhulu kwabatshalizimali kuvela ekutheni kungenzeka ukuthi sekwephuze kancane ukuvula izikhundla kule makethe yezimali ebalulekile. Noma mhlawumbe akunjalo?
Konke kubonakala kukhombisa ukuthi iDow Jones ayinayo imingcele ngaphambili futhi awekho amazinga angamelana nayo. Yize kunjalo kuzoba nesikhathi lapho lo mjaho wokuqina oqinile kuzofanele ume futhi kulo mqondo abekho abahlaziyi abambalwa abakholelwa ukuthi lo mzuzu usondele kakhulu ekwenzekeni kwenyama. Mhlawumbe ngenxa yemiphumela ye- izinyathelo zokuvikela esetshenziswe nguMongameli waseMelika, uDonald Trump. Kunoma ikuphi, lesi sikhathi okwamanje ayifikanga futhi abatshalizimali babhekene nenkathi yegolide ekuthengisweni kwamasheya ngobukhulu emhlabeni.
Kufanele kukhunjulwe ukuthi iDow Jones ibilokhu ikhula ngokuqinile kusukela ngesikhathi esinzima senziwa. ubunzima bezomnotho lapho ngeminyaka ka-2017 nango-2008. Ngokungenamakhefu futhi ngezilungiso ezithile, njengalezo ezikhiqizwe kulo nyaka. Kepha ngemuva kwezikhathi ezimbalwa zokuhweba, amasheya ayo avuka futhi futhi uma kungenzeka ngamandla amakhulu nangokuqina cishe kuyiminyaka eyisishiyagalolunye lapho ukuvuselelwa kwenkomba kungenye yezehlakalo ezivelele kakhulu zezimali eminyakeni yamuva. Ngokuphikisana nemakethe yamasheya yaseYurophu, ebikungabaza kakhulu kule nkathi.
UDow Jones: ngamaphuzu angama-26.000
Akukho okungaphansi kokuthi kufinyelele ezingeni lamaphoyinti angama-26.000, ngisho nokubadlula emahoreni okugcina. Lapho i- Ama-oda omthengi zibekwa ngokucacile okukhulu kubesifazane abathengisayo. Wonke umuntu ufuna ukuthenga amasheya eDow Jones futhi ngale ndlela kunzima kakhulu ukwehla. Amandla ayo awanakubuzwa, okungenani okwesikhashana ngakho-ke iminyaka eminingi, eminingi. Izinwele zisetshenziswa ngabatshalizimali ukuthenga amasheya ngamanani okuncintisana kakhulu. Lapho kungasweli khona imali engenayo evela kuzo zonke izindawo, hhayi eNyakatho Melika kuphela.
Ngaphandle kwalokhu kucatshangelwa, kubalulekile ukuhlaziya ukuthi yisikhathi esihle yini sokuvula izikhundla kule makethe yamasheya efanele. Akusona isikhathi esihle sokungena ngoba izimpawu zokuqala zokukhathala kungenzeka futhi lokhu kujwayelekile futhi kuvamile ezimakethe zezimali. Njengoba abahlaziyi bezezimali besho kahle kakhulu, akukho lutho olukhuphuka unomphela nangaphansi emakethe yamasheya. Yize icishe ibe yiminyaka eyishumi isendaweni enhle futhi ingenye yezikhathi ezinhle kakhulu emakethe yamasheya yase-United States. Abatshalizimali bakwazile yenza ukonga kwakho kube nenzuzo cishe ngama-90%. Lokho wukuthi, ngokutholwa kwemali eyizigidi ezigidini eziningi zamacala.
Yini engavimba lokhu kukhuphuka?
Kunezici eziningi ezingamisa lokhu kukhuphuka okumangazayo emalini yase-US. Vele, enye yazo ivela ezinyathelweni zokuvikela ezamukelwe nokuthi iyisitha sayo esikhulu, njengombiko ovela ku- IsiKhwama Sezimali Zomhlaba Wonke (IMF). Ngalo mqondo, amathemba abo alandelayo awawona mahle njengamanje. Yize ukulungiswa, kusho abahlaziyi bezezimali, ngeke kube nodlame njengasezikhathini ezedlule entengweni. Yize isibikezelo kufanele sibe ngesinye sezici ezijwayelekile ezenzweni zakho.
Ngalo mqondo, inkolelo yezimakethe zezezimali ukuthi imakethe yamasheya yaseMelika ingaba nayo ukuhamba okuphansi kakhulu ukwedlula owaseYurophu. Akumangalisi ukuthi lokhu akukhiqizanga ukukhuphuka okuphawuleka kangaka kwentengo yamasheya ayo. Ngakho-ke, kunokungqubuzana okukhulu ukuze amanani entengo ehle kusukela manje kuqhubeke. Eqinisweni, enye yezimpikiswano ezinkulu phakathi kwabatshalizimali ukuthi kungaba nenzuzo enkulu manje ukungena ekuhwebeni kwamasheya ezwekazini elidala kunakwelaphesheya kwe-Atlantic.
Ubungozi bokubuyela emuva kwethrendi
Esinye isici okufanele sibhekwe kusukela manje kuya phambili yizingozi ezingase zivele maqondana noshintsho olwenzeka ezimakethe zamasheya zase-United States futhi, ikakhulukazi, eDow Jones. Zihlukahlukene futhi zinemvelo ehlukile, yize kufanele kwaziwe ukuthi akudingeki ukuthi zilandelwe. Uma kungenjalo, kumane nje kuyizinsongo ezinkulu kakhulu zentuthuko yamasheya aseMelika ukuthi ekugcineni ime. Futhi phakathi kwalezi esiziveza ngezansi zivelele.
- El ukuvikela ngokweqile ukuthi umongameli wabo unikeze umnotho wase-US nokuthi bawubeka engcupheni enkulu. Yize mhlawumbe imiphumela yakhona ingabonakali esikhathini esifushane futhi ingaphakathi naphakathi. Kepha kuyingcuphe esilele emuva futhi ekhona ekudumazekeni kwabatshalizimali abaningi abancane nabaphakathi.
- La ukwehla komnotho world nokuthi ekugcineni kuzophinde kuthinte i-United States uqobo futhi naphezu kokuphapha kwayo ezinyangeni ezedlule. Ngamanani okungaqashwa ancishiswe aba sezingeni lomlando, kanye nokukhula komnotho.
- Isimo se amazwe asakhulayo Kungenye yezimpawu ezingadala ubuthakathaka obuthile emnothweni wayo. Ikakhulu maqondana nezitoko lapho zigcina khona ubudlelwane obuhle bezentengiselwano futhi okungaba yimbangela yenkinga entsha yomhlaba.
- Ukwesaba ukugula kokuwa njengamanje ephethwe ngamasheya ase-US. Akunakulibaleka ukuthi kuneminyaka eminingi ngale ndlela eqhubekayo nokuthi kwesinye isikhathi kufanele ime. Akumangalisi-ke ukuthi yisikhathi esithuthuka kakhulu emakethe yamasheya yaleli lizwe elikhulu futhi esinamandla amancane angaziwa emashumini eminyaka amuva nje.
Ukungezwani neChina
Ngesikhathi sokugcina sokuhweba, uDow Jones wenza inqubekela phambili enamahloni edalwa wukungezwani kwezohwebo phakathi kwe-United States neChina. Mayelana nemikhakha enenzuzo enkulu, kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi inzuzo ephezulu kakhulu ngeye izinto eziyisisekelo, ngaphambi kwezezimali namandla (0,38). Kunoma ikuphi, phakathi kweziqu ezingama-30 ezisohlwini lweDow Jones, ukunyuka kwezinkampani ezinjengeCarterpillar, iBoeing neGoldman Sachs (1,31%) kuyabonakala. Ngokucindezelwa kokuthenga okusebenza kakhulu ezinsukwini zakamuva futhi okungakha inketho yokuthenga ezinyangeni ezizayo.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kuyaphawuleka futhi ukuthi imvelo yale makethe yezezimali efanelekile ivikela kakhulu kuneminyaka embalwa edlule futhi umkhakha wezobuchwepheshe iyona ethinteka kakhulu ekulindeni kokukhula kwayo. Lapho ukukhuphuka kwentengo kawoyela kungathinti amanani abo ngokweqile. Kunoma ikuphi, kuvuna okulindelwe yizinkampani zikawoyela ezinesisindo esithile kuDow Jones. Kukhulu kunasekuthengisweni kwesitoko kwezwekazi elidala ezineziphakamiso ezimbalwa zokukhetha le ndlela ekutshalweni kwezimali.
Ukuzizwa uzethemba
Kunoma ikuphi, abatshalizimali bayaqhubeka nokukholelwa emathubeni alo makethe wezezimali futhi ngaphandle kwamanani aphezulu kumasheya ezinkampani ezibalwe ohlwini. Mayelana nalokhu, kufanele kwaziwe ukuthi ngokocwaningo lwakamuva lwanyanga zonke lwabaphathi besikhwama abavela eBhange LaseMelika uMerrill Lynch, ama-69% alabo okucwaningwe nabo bathi i-United States yisifunda esihle kunazo zonke maqondana okulindelwe kumholo, izinga lokurekhoda emlandweni weminyaka engu-17 yocwaningo. Kungumbuzo wokuzethemba okukhulu engxenyeni enhle yabatshalizimali nokuthi basiza ukukhushulwa kwabo kuqhubeke.
Mayelana nenkomba yezobuchwepheshe ngokugqama, i Nasdaq, yize ukuziphendukela kwemvelo kukuhle emasontweni amuva nje, akunamandla amakhulu njengalapho kwenzeka kuDow Jones. Ngenxa yokushoda kwamandla okumelwe umkhakha wezobuchwepheshe. Ngokwehla kwesinye isikhathi okudonsela ukunaka, njengakwisimo esithile se-Apple noma iMicrosoft. Yize kufanele kubhekwe ukuthi bavela enzuzweni ephezulu kakhulu eminyakeni eyisishiyagalombili edlule, nokuthi kwezinye izimo bamele intuthuko esondele kuma-80%. Iphesenti okunzima kakhulu ukulithola ezimakethe zezimali.
Kodwa-ke, enye yezinkinga ezinkulu ukutshala imali emakethe yamasheya yase-United States ukuthi ukusebenza kwayo kunamakhomishini amakhulu kakhulu uma kuqhathaniswa nawezwe. Into ebuyisa abatshalizimali ukwenza imisebenzi kule makethe yezezimali. Ngaphezu kokuba nezinkampani ezingaziwa kakhulu ngabasebenzisi nabakhetha amanani asekhaya.