Ukuhlaziywa kobuchwepheshe emakethe yamasheya yathuthukiswa kucatshangelwa i- Imibono kaCharles Henry Dow's Stock Market. Inhloso yalo ukubikezela intengo yesabelo esizayo, izinto zokusetshenziswa, ikusasa kanye nokuphepha okuthengiswayo; ucabangela amanani wangaphambilini nokusebenza kwalawa magugu.
Ukuhlaziywa kwezobuchwepheshe kuzosebenza umthetho wokuphakelwa kanye nokufunwa ukuze ukwazi ukuthola nokuqonda ngokunengqondo ukuthi imakethe yamasheya nezimakethe zamasheya zisebenza kanjani, kanye nokukwazi ukubona izitayela ezikhona.
Amashadi asetshenziselwa ukubikezela izitayela zamanani ezizayo.
I-Las Imibono yeDow Mayelana nokutshalwa kwemali, kuzoba yisisekelo salokhu kuhlaziywa, futhi kuzokwenza ukuthi izimakethe zezezimali zifundwe.
Ukufuna imiphumela esheshayo kugxilwe kakhulu kulolu hlobo lokutadisha, kepha kusekhonaUkuhlaziywa Okuyisisekelo”, Ezogxila emininingwaneni yezezimali yesikhathi eside, yeminyaka eminingi.
Ukubuyekeza nokutadisha amashadi entengo yamasheya namagrafu kungumsebenzi umhlaziyi okuzofanele awenze ukuthola ukuthambekela kwamanani phakathi kwezinye izingqinamba. Kuzodingeka futhi ukuqonda imiqondo yokwesekwa nokuphikiswa. Ake sibuyekeze lokhu nokunye okuqukethwe ngezansi.
Izisekelo ezibusa Ukuhlaziywa Kwezobuchwepheshe
Izakhiwo eziyinhloko lapho ukuhlaziywa kwezobuchwepheshe kusekelwe kuzoba:
- Intengo yehlisa konke.
- Izintengo zizohamba ngamathrendi.
- Umlando uyaziphinda.
Isimiso sokuqala (Intengo yehlisa konke), Kuzoba yi isisekelo sokuhlaziywa kobuchwepheshe.
Cabanga ngazo zonke izinto ezizothinta imakethe; ezomnotho, ezokuqagela, ezepolitiki, ezenhlalo, njll., ziyabonakala esenzweni sentengo.
Lokhu kuphetha ukuthi lapho isenzo sentengo semakethe enikeziwe sihlaziywa, isamba sezinto ezihlobene nemakethe efundwayo sizohlaziywa ngokuzenzakalela, noma kungenjalo ngokuqondile.
Intengo kuzobe kukhombisa ukuguqulwa ku- ibhalansi phakathi kokunikezwa nokufunwayo.
Uma intengo inyuka, kuzoba njalo ngoba isidingo sidlula ukunikezwa, futhi uma kwehla, ukunikezwa kuzoba ngaphezu kwesidingo.
Lapho kwenziwa ukuhlaziywa kwezobuchwepheshe, akukazanywa ukuqaphela lezo zinto ezidala ushintsho, kepha kunalokho kuzohlaziywa imiphumela yalezo zinguquko, okuzoba ngamanani.
Mayelana nomqondo wethrendi, "Amanani azohamba ngamathrendi", Kumele kubonwe ukuthi ekuhlaziyweni kwezobuchwepheshe inhloso ukukhomba umkhuba ekuqaleni kwawo, ukuze kusungulwe ukusebenza kuleyo ndlela efanayo.
Ngokufunda okwedlule, ikusasa lingaqondakala. Lokhu kuchaza isisekelo "Umlando uyaziphinda."
Ukwakheka kobuchwepheshe okungabonwa kumagrafu, kuza njengomphumela wokuqagela okunamandla noma kwe-bearish emakethe, futhi kuzoba nokuthambekela ekuziphatheni okufanayo ngaphansi kwezimo ezifanayo noma ezifanayo.
Ukuhlaziywa Kwezobuchwepheshe vs Ukuhlaziywa Okuyisisekelo
Njengoba sibonile kusisekelo, "Intengo yehlisa konke”, Imicimbi engahle ithinte isenzo semakethe, izobe isenza isaphulelo esikalwe ngentengo. Lokho kusho ukuthi, kubhekwe ukuthi kungadingeki ukwazi izinto eziyisisekelo noma izindaba ezizodala isenzo sentengo, esikhundleni salokho kuzokwanela ukwenza lokho ukuhlaziywa kwamagrafu.
Ngesikhathi ukuhlaziywa kobuchwepheshe Kuzogxila ekutadisheni isenzo sezimakethe, ukuhlaziywa okuyisisekelo kuzogxila emandleni ezomnotho okuhlinzekwa kanye nokufunwa okuzonyusa intengo ukuthi inyuke, ihlale injalo noma yehle.
Le ndlela izobe ihlaziya lezo zinto ezifanele ezingathinta intengo yensimbi yezezimali ukuze kutholakale inani elingaphakathi laleyo nsimbi.
Lezi zindlela ezimbili zizama ukuxazulula inkinga efanayo: ukubikezela amanani entengo yesikhathi esizayo ngandlela thile, ngamunye enza ngamafomu noma ngamasu ahlukile.
Abasekela izimiso eziyisisekelo bazobe befunda i izimbangela zokuhamba nabahlaziyi bezobuchwepheshe bazogxila emiphumeleni yayo.
Umbono weDow
UCharles H. Dow, ngasekupheleni kwekhulu leshumi nesishiyagalolunye, wadalula imibono eyayisekela ukuhlaziywa kwezobuchwepheshe. Yizakhiwo ezihlobene nokusebenza kwezimakethe, kusetshenziswa amazinga okuvala amashadi ansuku zonke.
Izakhiwo ze- Phansi theory chaza kafushane lezi zici ezilandelayo. Ama-indices azokwehlisa konke, lokhu kubheka lonke ulwazi mayelana nemicimbi ekwazi ukuthinta izimakethe.
Kuzoba nezindlela ezintathu izimakethe ezizolandela. Eyodwa (Eyenyuka - Yehla), kulandela iphethini yeziqongo nezigodi. Ezinye izitayela zokuqala noma zesikhathi eside, kusuka ezinyangeni eziyisithupha kuya onyakeni, noma ngaphezulu.
Amathrendi abhekwa njengesikhathi esimaphakathi, kusuka kumaviki amathathu kuya ezinyangeni ezintathu kanye nakwezemfundo ephakeme, okwaziwa nangokuthi isikhathi esincane noma esifushane (ngaphansi kwamasonto amathathu).
Amathrendi wohlobo oluyinhloko bazobe belandela izigaba ezintathu ekuguqukeni kwayo. Enye yokuqongelelwa, noma "ukuthengwa kwezikhungo"; lokuthengwa ngumphakathi jikelele noma isigaba esiyisisekelo nesigaba sokusabalalisa, esaziwa nangokuthi ukuthengisa kwesikhungo noma okuqagelayo.
Izinkomba ezahlukahlukene zesitoko Kumele ngabe baqinisekisa ukuthambekela okuphezulu nokwenyuka.
Ivolumu izoqinisekisa ukuthambekela. Ivolumu yezohwebo kufanele ikhuphuke lapho intengo ihamba ngokuya kuthrendi futhi kufanele iwe lapho iphikisana nayo.
Umkhuba uzohlala usebenza noma usebenza kuze kube yilapho ukhombisa izinkomba ezicacile zokuthi ushintshe indlela.
Ukuhlaziywa kwezithombe
Lolu hlobo lokuhlaziya luzocubungula izifundo ezisetshenziswe kugrafu yamanani, ngaphandle kokusebenzisa ukuhlaziywa kwamanani.
Ngezansi sixoxa ngamathuluzi ayisisekelo anayo.
- Amathrendi: Kuzoba ukuqondiswa kweziqongo nezigodi intengo nesenzo sayo okuzobe kukhombisa ngokusobala. Kukhona ukuthambekela kwe-bullish, bearish kanye ne-lateral. Amanye amathrendi azovumela ukusetshenziswa kwamanye amathuluzi afana nalawa: Imigqa yokuthambekela eya phezulu noma eyehla; Iziteshi, ezingahlukaniswa njenge-bullish noma i-bearish.
- Ukusekela nokumelana: Kuzoba ileveli yentengo ephansi kunalena yamanje. Isidingo kuzodingeka sidlule ukuhlinzekwa, ngakho-ke intengo kufanele ikhuphuke futhi. Ezingeni legrafu izomelwa umugqa ovundlile ozoba ngaphansi kwentengo yamanje elindelwe equkethe noma yikuphi umfutho owehlayo, ngakho-ke intengo izobuyela emuva. Ukumelana kuzoba okuphambene nokwesekwa. Kuzoba ileveli yentengo ephakeme kunalena yamanje, lapho ukunikezwa kufanele kudlule okufunwayo futhi intengo yehle ngaleyo ndlela. Ezingeni leshadi, kuzoba umugqa ovundlile ozoba ngaphezu kwentengo ekhona okumele iqukathe umfutho we-bullish.
- Ukwakhiwa kobuchwepheshe, izibalo noma amaphethini: Imidwebo ezokwethulwa kumashadi wamasheya. Ihlukaniswe ngezigaba ezihlukile noma amakilasi, azoba nenani lokuqagela. Izitayela ezibhekwa njengezikhona yilezi: i-bullish, i-bearish ne-lateral.
- Izithiyo: Kuzoba yiminyakazo intengo ephikisana nomkhuba wayo oyinhloko. Kulindeleke ukuthi intengo izobuyela emuva noma ibuyise ingxenye ebalulekile yenhlangano yokuqala, ithole ukwesekwa noma ukumelana namazinga athile abonakalayo ngaphambi kokuqhubeka nokunyakaza kwayo ohlangothini olwedlule.
Amathuluzi Wezibalo
Kunamamodeli wezibalo angasebenza ekusebenzeni kwentengo, futhi ukuhlaziywa kwezobuchwepheshe kuyazisebenzisa. Lokhu kuzovumela ukubikezela indlela yokuziphatha izimakethe ezizoba nayo ngokuzayo.
Ukuhambisa izilinganiso: Ziyizisekelo cishe zazo zonke izinhlelo zokulandela izitayela. Izinkomba ezifakiwe kuzoba: Amabhendi eBollinger, Izilinganiso Zokuhamba Ezilula, Izilinganiso Zokuhamba Ezinesisindo.
Izilinganiso ezihambayo ngokuvamile zizohlelwa njengemigqa eqinile entengweni noma eshadini lesilinganiso, futhi ngokuvamile lizosetshenziswa ngokuhlanganiswa okubili noma ngaphezulu, ngezikhathi ezihlukile.
Zizoba wusizo kakhulu uma kunokuqondiswa okucacile kwemakethe kungaba yi-bullish noma i-bearish. Uma ukuthambekela kungasasebenzi, kungakuhle ukuthola amasiginali kuma-oscillator.
Ama-Oscillator: Ziyizibonelo zezibalo ezisetshenziswe entengweni, ezincike ekubhekeni okuthile ekuziphatheni kwemakethe. Zivame ukwakhiwa ngaphansi kweshadi lesitoko, njengemigqa noma ama-histograms. Bazolinganisa amandla wamathrendi entengo.
Amanye ama-oscillator abaluleke kakhulu futhi asetshenziswa kakhulu yilawa:
- I-Stochastic (iStochastic Oscillator)
- I-MACD (Ukuhambisa Isilinganiso Sokuhlangana / Kwehlukana)
- Umfutho; I-RSI (Inkomba Yamandla Ahlobene)
Lapho kunenkambiso ye-lateral emakethe, ama-oscillator awusizo kakhulu, ikakhulukazi lapho izifundo ezilandela mkhuba zinganikeli ngamasiginali aphelele. Ama-Oscillator anikeza umhlaziyi amasiginali azokwenza kube lula ngabo ukuzuza ezikhathini ezingenawo umkhuba ochaziwe.
Ezikhathini lapho izingcaphuno zilandela umkhuba oqondile we-bullish noma we-bearish, ama-oscillator azobe ehlinzeka ngemininingwane eyisisekelo njengoba intengo isondela ezindaweni ezimbi kakhulu.
Ama-Oscillator azobe exwayisa ngokulinganayo ngobuthakathaka bethrendi enikeziwe lapho yehluka eshadini lesitoko noma amanye ama-oscillator.
Ukubikezela
La amandla okubikezela wokuhlaziywa kwezobuchwepheshe anqunyelwe. Kucatshangelwa ukuthi yi-3% kuphela yokwahluka kwansuku zonke okungachazwa ngokubheka amanani wangaphambilini esabelo. Ngenxa yalokhu, imininingwane emlandweni wentengo edlule yesibambiso okukhulunywa ngaso ayanele ukubikezela intengo yesikhathi esizayo.
Ama-hypotheses amaningana achaza ubunzima bokuhlaziywa kwezobuchwepheshe nezinye izinhlobo zokuhlaziywa kwesitoko okusetshenziselwa ukubikezela amanani ezikhathi ezizayo.
Enye yazo ihlobene ne- izimakethe ezisebenza kahle ze-hypothesis, ethi yonke imininingwane etholakala esidlangalaleni izothonya masinyane intengo yezokuphepha. Ngokwenza lokhu, ngeke kwenzeke "ukushaya imakethe" ekucabangeni ukwehla kwamanani okwedlule noma ukukala ngokweqile.
Obunye ubufakazi obutholakele bubonisa ukuthi izimakethe zinezikhathi zokuhamba okungahleliwe, lapho kungenzeki lutho oluyisinqumo, oluphazanyiswa ukwethuka okungazelelwe nokujabula.
Ngenxa yesimo esivele sivele senjabulo, kubhekwa ukuthi izindlela zamanje zokubikezela azikwazi ukuba wusizo kakhulu.