Enye yemininingwane ekhombisa ukuvela kwezinkomba eziyinhloko ze-European equity ukuthi i-Ibex 35 ikhombisa ukuthambekela okubi kakhulu uma kuqhathaniswa namazwe angomakhelwane. Kuyisikwele lapho izimbuyiselo ziye zalungiswa kahle. Lo mkhuba ovezwe kusukela ezinyangeni zokuqala zika-2019. Ukuthi abanye babatshalizimali baqondise ukonga kwabo kwezinye izinkomba zaseYurophu ngenhloso yokwenza ngcono isitatimende sakho semali engenayo esivivinyweni ngasinye.
Lo mkhuba wezimali zaseSpain ubangelwa izizathu eziningi nemvelo ehlukahlukene, njengoba kuzokhonjiswa kule ndatshana. Kepha noma ngabe yikuphi, ijezise izikhundla zabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi abakhethe izibambiso ezithengisa emakethe eqhubekayo yezwe lethu. Ngomehluko omubi ongemuhle lokho ifinyelele ku-3% noma ku-4% njalo ngonyaka uma kuqhathaniswa nalabo esincintisana nabo abakhulu ezimakethe zezimali. Endaweni engathathwa njengokuhle ngokulingene ezimeni zamanje ezikhona zomnotho.
Okwamanje, inkomba ekhethiwe yama-equities yaseSpain, i-Ibex 35, ihamba ibanga lelo lamaphoyinti ayi-9.200 9.700 liye kumaphuzu angama-35 50. Ngaphansi kwethrendi okufanele ihlukaniswe njenge-lateral bullish futhi enikeza amabanga amancane kakhulu wokusebenza ngamanani esitoko kulezi zinsuku. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, akukwazi ukukhohlwa ukuthi eYurophu i-Ibex XNUMX ivelele, okuyinkomba ekhuphuka kancane futhi amabhange angumkhakha osebenze kabi kakhulu kukhetho lwaseSpain. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, iDax, iyona ekhombisa amandla amakhulu, njenge-Euro Stoxx XNUMX, ehlanganisa imali engamanani efanelekile ezwenikazi elidala.
Ibex 35: ukuncika emabhange
Esinye sezizathu zokuchaza ukusebenza okubi kwalabo abakhethiwe ezweni lethu uma kuqhathaniswa nokunye ukuncika ngokweqile ezikhungweni zezikweletu. Ngesikhathi lapho la maqembu ezezimali engahambi ngezikhathi ezimnandi kakhulu ekubukeni kwemakethe yamasheya. Ngokuncipha kwezinyanga ezedlule eziyishumi nambili zika ngaphezu kuka-10% ekulinganisweni kwayo emakethe yamasheya. Ngakho-ke, kusinda imakethe yamasheya yezwe lethu ngoba imele ngaphezulu nje kwe-15% yemali etholakalayo kule makethe yezezimali. Okuthile okungeke kwenzeke ngezimakethe zokulingana endaweni yethu futhi okwenza ukuziphatha kwe-Ibex 35 kube kubi kakhulu.
Kulesi simo jikelele, lokhu kuncika ngokweqile kungalimaza izinhloso zabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi esinqumweni sabo sokuthatha izikhundla emakethe yamasheya aseSpain. Akumangalisi ukuthi banenketho yokukhomba ezimakethe zaseYurophu ezigcine ukuthambekela okuhle ngonyaka odlule nohhafu. Yize kudinga amakhomishini aphakeme kunasemisebenzini kazwelonke, cishe ukwanda okungu-5% ngaphezu kwengqikithi yemisebenzi yokuthenga nokuthengisa. Ngenkathi ngakolunye uhlangothi bethula umnikelo ohluke kakhulu maqondana nemikhakha emelwe kulezi zinkomba zamasheya.
Izinkinga zepolitiki
Esinye isizathu sokuchaza ukusebenza okubi kakhulu kwe-Ibex 35 kungenxa yokungabaza okwenziwe yi- ukungazinzi kwezepolitiki futhi lokho sekuholele ekutheni abatshalizimali abaningi abakhulu baqondise izimali zabo kwezinye izimakethe zezezimali. Futhi lokho kunoma yikuphi okuholele ekwehlukaneni kokuvela kwalezi zinkomba kwembulwa. Ukulimaza izimpahla zezimali ezibalwe emakethe eqhubekayo kazwelonke, njengoba kubonisiwe ezinyangeni ezedlule. Yize lesi yisimo esingahle sishintshe ngezikhathi nesikhathi futhi kungaba kulo nyaka okhona. Okungenani ukulinganisela ukuzivocavoca kwalezi zimakethe zokulingana.
Ngenkathi ngakolunye uhlangothi, kufanele futhi sikubheke kusukela manje ukuthi imakethe yamasheya yezwe lethu isengozini enkulu yokwehla komnotho. Ngamanye amagama, ikhula kancane ezikhathini ezibucayi kakhulu futhi lokhu kuyiqiniso elingaqinisekiswa ochungechungeni lwamanani omlando ngaphakathi kwenkomba ekhethiwe yemakethe yamasheya eSpain. Lapho kufanele ukhethe kakhudlwana ukwenza ukonga kube nenzuzo ngendlela efanelekile futhi kuhloswe kuyo yonke imibandela yaphakade: emifushane, ephakathi nendawo ende. Lapho okunikezwayo kungabanzi ngokwamanani uma kuqhathaniswa nalezo ezinikezwa izimakethe zase-Europe.
Ngenxa yezimbangela zesikhashana
Futhi akufanele kunqatshwe ukuthi izimbangela zesikhashana zichaza ukusebenza okubi kakhulu kwezimali eSpain. Ngoba izwe lethu likhombisa imininingwane yezomnotho ngobuthakathaka obukhulu kunakwamanye amazwe futhi konke lokhu kunomthelela obucayi kakhulu ezimakethe zezimali. Ikakhulu kufayela le- izikhathi ezingaphezulu njengoba kungewona umnotho oqinile ngaphakathi kwe-European Union. Ngokwalo mongo ojwayelekile, kufanele kuphawulwe ukuthi imakethe yamasheya yaseSpain ijeziswe kanzima yilezi zinto futhi yagcina isilele emuva kuma-indices ezimakethe zamasheya zamazwe asendaweni eseduze kakhulu nayo.
Ngalo mqondo, kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi ngenkathi i-Ibex 35 ngonyaka owedlule yathokozela kakhulu cishe u-10%, okusele kweqa la mazinga. Ngokuqondene nesibonelo, i- I-CAC 40, i-DAX noma i-Footsie eyayimi ku-15%. Lokho wukuthi, ngomehluko olinganiselwa ku-5% ngokwezinzuzo ezitholwe ngabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi ngokusebenza kwabo. Ngokwalokhu kubukwa, imakethe yamasheya ezweni lethu, okungenani okwamanje, ayinenzuzo encane kunaleyo yonke futhi lokhu kuyisici esingaba nomthelela ekuphendukeleni kwethu kwezinye izimakethe zomhlaba ukwenza inhlokodolobha yethu izuze kusukela manje.
Ukujika okuphansi esontweni eledlule
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kulezi zinsuku ezedlule sibonile uphawu olusha lobuthakathaka ohlwini lwezinkomba zezwe lethu. Ngokukhombisa ukuphenduka okuphazamisayo kokubi ngemuva kokugcwalisa igebe le-bullish ebelinalo emavikini adlule. Okuthile okungabhekwa njengokunembile njenge- uphawu lwamandla ngabahlaziyi ezimakethe zezimali. Ngenkathi kwenzeka okuphambene nalokho, i-DAX yaseJalimane igqekeze kancane isiqondisi sayo se-bullish. Ngokwabo, izinkomba e-United States yizo eziqhubeka nokukhombisa ukuqina kwazo okukhulu futhi, okubaluleke kakhulu, kuzo zonke izikhathi eziphakeme.
Ngokwalo mbono wemakethe yamasheya, imakethe yamasheya yaseSpain yiyo edala ukwaneliseka okuncane phakathi kwabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi. Yize kulindeleke ukuthi esikhathini esimaphakathi lesi simo singashintsha futhi sifinyelele kwezinye izindawo zomhlaba wonke. Akumangalisi ukuthi inamandla amakhulu okukhula uma kuqhathaniswa nezinye zalezi. Manje okusasele ukuqinisekiswa isikhathi lapho lokhu kulingana kufika ekucushweni kwamanani ezokuphepha ezakha okukhethiwe. Lapho isici sokunquma kwezepolitiki singadlala indima ebaluleke kakhulu ekufezeni lezi zinhloso ezimakethe zamasheya. Ngaphandle kokuthi kunezibambiso eziningi kwi-Ibex 35 ezithengisa ngezaphulelo ezibonakala zithakazelisa kakhulu ukuthatha izikhundla kulezi zinsuku. Ikakhulu, kwezinye izinkampani ezisemkhakheni wokubhanga nowokujikeleza osezingeni lokucaca okweqile ngemuva kokusikeka kwezinyanga zokugcina futhi lokho kungaba inketho yokuthenga kula masonto alandelayo.
Imisebenzi yemakethe yamasheya ikhula ngo-5%
Imakethe yamasheya yaseSpain ithengiswe ngamanani ngenyanga edlule inani lama-euro ayizigidi ezingama-40.646, ngokuhambisana nenyanga eyedlule kanye no-4,8% ngaphezulu kunangesikhathi esifanayo sika-2018. Ukuqashwa konyaka wonke kufinyelele kuma-euro ayizigidi ezingama-469.626, okungu-18,1% ngaphansi kunonyaka odlule. Isibalo sokuhweba okuqoqiwe kuze kube yilesi sikhathi sehle ngo-15,9%, saya ezigidini ezingama-37,2, ngemuva kokubhalisa ukuthengiselana kwezigidi ezingama-2,8 ngoDisemba, u-10,0% ngaphansi kwenyanga efanayo ngonyaka odlule no-11,4% ngaphansi kunangenyanga eyedlule.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, iBME ithole isabelo semakethe ekuhwebeni kwezokuphepha zaseSpain ezingama-72,2% unyaka wonke. Ububanzi obumaphakathi bonyaka babungamaphuzu ayisisekelo we-4,91 ezingeni lentengo yokuqala (i-12,9% ingcono kunendawo elandelayo yokuhweba) namaphoyinti wesisekelo we-6,88 ngokujula kwama-25.000 euros encwadini yoku-oda (okungu-34,3% okungcono), ngokusho kwezimele Umbiko weLiquidMetrix. Ngenkathi ngakolunye uhlangothi, imakethe ye- okukhishwa ngokwezezimali kuvaliwe kulo nyaka ngokunyuka okuqoqekayo kokuhweba okungu-3,3%. Kulokhu kuziphendukela kwemvelo, ikusasa lesitoko lagqama, ngokunyuka okungu-42,9%; ngasikhathi sinye nekusasa kwizabelo zezitoko, ngokunyuka okungu-60,9%. Okwamanje, izinkomba e-United States yizo eziqhubeka nokukhombisa ukuqina kwazo okukhulu futhi, okubaluleke kakhulu, ekuqophelweni eliphezulu. Kuyo yonke imigomo yesikhathi esigcwele: emfushane, ephakathi nendawo ende.