Izingozi eziyisithupha ezingalimaza imakethe yamasheya ngo-6

Enye yezinselelo abatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi abanayo ukuthi yenzeni ngemakethe yamasheya ngonyaka ozayo. Ngoba azikho ezinye izindlela ezimakethe zezimali. Esimweni lapho inkampani uJulius Baer ibona khona ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla omnotho okuzokwesaba kuzofika ekupheleni kuka-2020 kodwa ngaphambi kwalokho, kusukela ngehlobo elizayo noma ngoJanuwari wonyaka ozayo, izikhwama bazokhuphuka ngesibalo cishe ngama-20%. Kuze kube seqophelweni lokuthi enye yezikhiye zokuvela ingalimele emzameni wokutshala imali ukukhetha ukuphathwa okusebenzayo.

Kunoma ikuphi, konke kubonakala kukhombisa ukuthi unyaka obucayi kakhulu kubatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi. Kakade ngeke kube lula kangako ukwenza izinzuzo esikhwameni njengaseminyakeni edlule. Uma kungenjalo, kunalokho, kuzofanele sinake kakhulu okwenzeka ezimakethe zezezimali. Ngoba yize kuyiqiniso ukuthi amathuba webhizinisi angempela azokwethulwa, akulona iqiniso elincane ukuthi imali eningi ingenziwa kalula kunakuqala. Lesi ngesinye sezingozi abatshalizimali abadalulwa kuzo njengamanje.

Enye yezikhiye zokugqamisa ukuthi izimakethe zezimali ziya kuphi ngalesi sikhathi yilokho okungenzeka ngochungechunge lwamaqiniso noma imicimbi engenzeka ngalesi sikhathi. Futhi yini ezoba yiyona ekugcineni ezonquma umkhombandlela isikhwama esiya kolunye uhlangothi noma kolunye. Ngaphandle kolunye uchungechunge lokucatshangelwa kwezobuchwepheshe futhi mhlawumbe futhi kusukela ekubukeni kwezisekelo zayo. Kunoma ikuphi, sizochaza ngobungozi obukhulu imakethe yamasheya ezoba nabo ezinyangeni ezizayo.

Izingozi: ukuntuleka kokulawulwa kwamandla emali

Izinga lonyaka le-General Consumer Index Index (CPI) lingama-0,4%, liphansi ngeshumi kunalelo ebhaliswe ngenyanga edlule. Lapho amaqembu anethonya elikhulu ku ukwehla kwesilinganiso sonyaka Zimi kanje: ezokuthutha, ezethule ukwehluka konyaka okungu-0,0%, cishe amaphuzu amabili aphansi kunenyanga edlule. Lokhu kungenxa yokwehla kwentengo kaphethiloli neyokuthambisa kule nyanga, uma kuqhathaniswa nokwenyuka okubhaliswe ngoJuni 2018.

Okunye okuhambisana kakhulu nezindlu, isilinganiso sazo esiwe ngamaphuzu angaphezu kwelilodwa, simi ku- -1,5%, ngenxa ye- kwehla ngamanani kagesi kanye namafutha oketshezi, akhuphuke ngo-2018. Ngokwengxenye yalo, iqembu eligqame ngokuba nomthelela omuhle ezingeni lonyaka yilezi: ezokungcebeleka namasiko, okubeka isilinganiso salo ku -0,4%, okuyisishiyagalombili kokuyishumi ngaphezu kwalowo kaMeyi, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokwenyuka kwamanani wamaphakeji ezokuvakasha, aphakeme kunango-2018. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-Harmonized Consumer Price Index (i-HICP) ibeka isilinganiso sayo sonyaka ku-0,6%, esinciphisa ngaso okwesithathu ngokuya kwangaphambilini inyanga.

Khuphuka ngamanani wenzalo

Esinye isici esingajezisa kakhulu izimakethe zokulingana kungenzeka ukukhuphuka kwamanani wenzalo endaweni ye-euro. Lapho, okuvela emnyangweni wokuhlaziywa kweBankinter kukhonjiswa ukuthi i-ECB izogcina izinga lesethenjwa, okwamanje elingu-0,0% lingashintshiwe kuze kube ngu-2021 futhi lizobambezela ukukhuphuka kwezinga lediphozi elisebenza emabhange kusuka ku -0,40, 0,20% njengamanje kuze kufike - 2021% ngo-2020, uma kuqhathaniswa nango-10 owedlule. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kule ndawo, balinganisela ukuthi i-IRR ye-German Bund ngo-2019 A izoqhubeka isondele kumlando wayo osezingeni eliphansi ngo-0,30 (-0,10% / - 0,10%) ukwehla kancane kancane ku (-0,20% / + 2020 %) ngo-0,20 kanye (+ 0,40% / 2021%) ngo-XNUMX.

Ngenkathi ngakolunye uhlangothi, umkhakha wezinsizakalo uthuthuka ngokugculisayo, kepha imboni ukhombisa izimpawu zobuthakathaka. Ukwehla kwamandla emali, kude nenhloso ye-ECB (~ 2,0%), ngaphandle kokutholwa kwamaholo nokwenyuka kwemali ebekiwe (M3). Izinga eliyisisekelo - elingashintshi kangako - libe sebangeni iminyaka emibili (+ 1,0% / 1,4%) futhi umbono wesikhathi eside wokwehla kwamandla emali usezingeni eliphansi kakhulu (~ 1,2%). Kunoma ikuphi, kuzoba ngesinye sezici okufanele wazi ngazo ukukhombisa ukuthi ngabe isikhathi esihle sokungena ezimakethe zezimali noma cha.

Ukuziphatha emafutheni

Esinye isici okuzodingeka ukuthi sinakekelwe ngokukhethekile ukuguquka kwentengo kawoyela ongahluziwe. Mayelana nalokhu, iBarclays yehlise izibikezelo zentengo kawoyela ka-2020, yathi ilindele ukuthi i- ukukhula kwesidingo esiphansi ngenxa yomongo obuthakathaka kunolindelekile womnotho wezwe jikelele. Ngoba bekungeke kuthinte kuphela amanani womkhakha kawoyela, kepha futhi nabo bonke labo abakha izinkomba eziyinhloko zezimakethe zamasheya zomhlaba wonke. Ukufika ezingeni lokuthi ingaba esinye sezici ezinquma kakhulu kulesi sikhathi.

"Kodwa-ke, sikholelwa ukuthi ukukhathazeka ngokweqile kweqile futhi ukuthambekela kokutholakala e-United States nasemhlabeni wonke kuhlala kukuhle," kusho abahlaziyi kuleli bhange, bengeza ngokuthi "imakethe ibukela phansi ukufunwa futhi ikala ukukhuphuka kokuphakelwa kwamazinga entengo amanje" . Ukukhula kokusetshenziswa kuzokwehla emiphongolweni engaphezu kwesigidi esisodwa ngosuku unyaka nonyaka ngonyaka we-1, njengoba "ukuvikela okwandayo phakathi nokwehla kwamanje kwezimboni emhlabeni wonke" kusinda kakhulu ekufuneni kukawoyela.

Ubudlelwano beChina ne-USA kwezohwebo

Le opera yensipho ngokungangabazeki izoqhubeka kule nkathi entsha ngakho-ke inqume indlela izimakethe zezimali ezithatha ngayo, ngandlela thile. Kufike ezingeni lokuthi ingakwazi khiqiza ukuguquguquka okuphezulu ekuguqukeni kwamanani, njengoba kwenzekile kulo nyaka. Kunoma ikuphi, kuzofanele sizijwayeze ukuhlala nale nkinga yesikhashana ngoba lesi sici esibalulekile ebudlelwaneni bamazwe omhlaba singaba yimbangela yamabhange nezinkampani zensimbi ukuwa emakethe yamasheya kulo nyaka.

Yize ngesizathu esifanayo, kungadala ukuthi ibhalansi ejwayelekile ku-akhawunti yethu yezokuphepha ikhule kakhulu. Kunoma ikuphi, kuzoba ipharamitha okuzodingeka ukuthi uyazi kakhulu futhi njalo. Ngokusebenza okusheshayo okungadingi amazinga aphakeme ngokweqile okuhlala unomphela. Ngoba ekugcineni kosuku bangakhiqiza umphumela ongafuneki engxenyeni yabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi. Ngomehluko obanzi kakhulu phakathi kwezintengo eziphakeme nezincane. Isici esingavuna imisebenzi yokuhweba noma senziwe ngesikhathi esifanayo sokuhweba.

Ukukhula kwezomnotho

Iphaneli yeFuncas ifake okokuqala izibikezelo ze-2020, unyaka lapho umnotho waseSpain izokhula u-1,9%, okuthathu kokungaphansi kuka-2019. Isibikezelo salo nyaka sihlala kuma-2,2%, nephrofayili ezinzile yekota ngayinye enamanani ka-0,5% ezingxenyeni ezine, engashintshiwe kwiPhaneli langaphambilini. Kuyo yomibili le minyaka, isilinganiso sokukhula esimaphakathi esilindelwe ngama-panelists siyaqhubeka nokuba ngaphezu kwesibikezelo sendawo ye-euro.

Isimo semakethe yezindlu

Mayelana nemali engenayo kazwelonke eguqukayo, enye yezinto ezizothatha isinqumo kuzoba yilezo ezixhunyaniswe nemakethe yezezakhiwo. Ngale ndlela, kufanele kukhunjulwe ukuthi inani lempahla ebolekwayo elenzelwe izindlu Kungu-29.032, u-0,1% ungaphansi kuka-Ephreli 2018. Inani elilinganisiwe ngama-euro ayi-124.655, ngokunyuka okungu-0,7%. Isilinganiso semali ebolekiwe ebhaliswe kumarejista ezindlu ngo-Ephreli (kusuka kuzenzo zomphakathi ezenziwa phambilini) ingama-euro ayi-142.440, i-1,8% ephakeme kunaleyo nyanga e-2018, ngokusho kwedatha yakamuva enikezwe yiNational Institute of Statistics (INE).

Ngenkathi ngakolunye uhlangothi, emalini ebolekwa imali eyenziwe kwisamba sezakhiwo zonke ngo-Ephreli, isilinganiso senzalo esimaphakathi ekuqaleni singama-2,51% (5,1% aphansi kunango-Ephreli 2018) kanye nesikhathi esimaphakathi seminyaka engama-23. Ama-58,7% wemali mboleko isezingeni lenzalo eguquguqukayo kanye no-41,3% ngesilinganiso esimisiwe. Izinga lenzalo emaphakathi ekuqaleni lingu-2,23% wemali mboleko yamanani eguqukayo (6,4% ngaphansi kunango-Ephreli 2018) kanye no-3,07% wemali mboleko yamanani amisiwe (4,8% ngaphezulu ngaphansi).

Inani eliphelele lemali mboleko enezinguquko ezimweni zayo ezibhaliswe kumarejista ezindlu ingu-4.814, 20,9% ngaphansi kuka-Ephreli 2018. Ngokuya ngohlobo lwezinguquko ezimweni, izikhala ezingama-3.932 zakhiqizwa ngo-Ephreli (noma ukulungiswa okwenziwe ngenhlangano efanayo yezezimali ), ngokuncipha konyaka kwe-19,3%. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, inani lezinto ezishintsha ibhizinisi (ama-subrogations kumuntu obolekayo) lehle ngo-27,8% kanye nenani lemali ebolekwayo lapho umnikazi wempahla ebolekiswe impahla eshintshiwe (ama-subrogations kulowo okweletayo) lehle ngo-25,3%.

Mayelana nemali engenayo kazwelonke eguqukayo, enye yezinto ezizothatha isinqumo kuzoba yilezo ezixhunyaniswe nemakethe yezezakhiwo. Ngale ndlela, kufanele kukhunjulwe ukuthi inani lempahla ebolekwayo elenzelwe izindlu Kungu-29.032, u-0,1% ungaphansi kuka-Ephreli 2018. Inani elilinganisiwe ngama-euro ayi-124.655, ngokunyuka okungu-0,7%. Isilinganiso semali ebolekiwe ebhaliswe kumarejista ezindlu ngo-Ephreli (kusuka kuzenzo zomphakathi ezenziwa phambilini) ingama-euro ayizigidi ezingama-142.440, ama-1,8% aphezulu kunayo leyo nyanga ka-2018.


Yiba ngowokuqala ukuphawula

Shiya umbono wakho

Ikheli lakho le ngeke ishicilelwe. Ezidingekayo ibhalwe nge *

*

*

  1. Ubhekele imininingwane: Miguel Ángel Gatón
  2. Inhloso yedatha: Lawula Ugaxekile, ukuphathwa kwamazwana.
  3. Ukusemthethweni: Imvume yakho
  4. Ukuxhumana kwemininingwane: Imininingwane ngeke idluliselwe kubantu besithathu ngaphandle kwesibopho esisemthethweni.
  5. Isitoreji sedatha: Idatabase ebanjwe yi-Occentus Networks (EU)
  6. Amalungelo: Nganoma yisiphi isikhathi ungakhawulela, uthole futhi ususe imininingwane yakho.