Okungaba khona okuphezulu ezimakethe zamasheya zomhlaba wonke kuzoba seduze kakhulu ne- amadijithi amabili uma amazinga okukhula akhonjisiwe emibikweni esemthethweni ehlonishwa. Yize phakathi nonyaka kuzovela uchungechunge lwezinkomba oluzonikeza isignali engaphezu kweyodwa ukuvula noma ukuhlehlisa izikhundla ezimakethe zezimali. Kunoma ikuphi, unyaka ozayo uyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu kwizintshisekelo zabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi abazodinga ukuzilungisa kahle iziphakamiso zesitoko ukwenza imisebenzi yakho izuze ezimakethe zezimali.
Izimakethe zamasheya zomhlaba wonke ziqala kusuka kwelinye lamazinga aphakeme kakhulu kule minyaka emihlanu edlule. Ngokubuyekezwa kuka-86%, 32% kanye no-22% ku- UDow Jones, i-Eurostoxx ne-Ibex 35, ngokulandelana. Manje umbuzo ukwazi ukuthi ngabe lo mkhuba ungagcinwa phakathi nalokhu kuvivinya noma uma, ngokuphambene nalokho, ukulungiswa kuzofakwa phansi kweparquet. Kunoma ikuphi, kuzoba nemingcele ethembeke kakhulu ezonquma ukuvela kwayo ezinyangeni eziyishumi nambili ezizayo. Ngabe ufuna ukwazi ukuthi iziphi ezibaluleke kakhulu?
Kunoma ikuphi, kuzobaluleke kakhulu ukuthi kulo nyaka omusha bakubeke njengecebo lokutshala imali i ukulondolozwa kwenhlokodolobha yakho utshale imali ngaphezu kokunye ukucatshangelwa kwezobuchwepheshe futhi mhlawumbe futhi ngokuyisisekelo. Kufanele uvule amafa amasha wezezimali uma ungafuni ukusala ngemuva kwabanye abatshalizimali. Ngoba vele kunezimpilo ezedlula imakethe yamasheya futhi kunezimakethe zezinsimbi eziyigugu, izinto zokusetshenziswa noma olunye utshalomali ukukhombisa lo mkhuba ongabekwa ngonyaka ozayo osuzoqala.
Okhiye: ukukhula komnotho emhlabeni jikelele
Izibikezelo zalo nyaka zizoba ngenye yezinjini ezikhuthaza noma ezihlehlisa ukuvela kwemakethe yamasheya, ngokuya ngokulungiswa okwenziwe ezinyangeni ezizayo. Ngalo mqondo, umbiko wakamuva we IsiKhwama Sezimali Zomhlaba Wonke (IMF) isikhuphule isilinganiso sayo sokukhula komhlaba saba ngu-3,7%. Ngenkathi ivela kwi-Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development igcina umugqa ofanayo wokukhula komnotho wamazwe omhlaba. Yize ukukhomba kulokho ukutakula akunamandla ngokwanele.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, umnyango wezokuhlaziywa kwe I-Bankinter lixwayisa ngokuthi umnotho ucwiliswe esigabeni sokukhula esingaqhubeka isikhathi eside. Babhekene nalesi simo, bathanda izimali njengethuluzi lokutshala imali elinenzuzo enkulu. Ngokuqondile, basetha umgomo we-Ibex 35 cishe amaphuzu ayi-11.000, 9% ngaphezulu kwamazinga amanje. Yize kunjalo kukhona ukungabaza okuningi okufanele kususwe kusukela manje kuqhubeke. Ikakhulukazi leyo emiselwe amazwe we-euro zone. Kunoma ikuphi, kuzoba inkambo yemakethe yamasheya eyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu, kakhulu kunakwiminyaka edlule.
Ukulindela ibhizinisi
Imiphumela eyethulwe izinkampani ezibalwe njalo ngekota kuzoba yipharamitha ebaluleke kakhulu ukuhlola intengo yamasheya. Uma ingekho imiphumela yekota yesine, i- inzuzo yenkampani okubalwe ku-Ibex 35 kukhule ngo-2018 cishe ngama-13%. Ukwehla kancane kuqhathaniswa nekota yokuqala lapho umsebenzi wezomnotho ukhuphuke waya kuma-20%. Kodwa-ke, okunye ukukhathazeka kwabatshalizimali kuxhomeke ekutheni umphumela wenkinga yaseCatalan uzodluliselwa kanjani kuma-akhawunti ezinkampani ezinyangeni ezizayo. Ukufika ezingeni lokuthi kuzoba ngesinye sezikhiye zokubeka umbandela ozothathwa yinkomba ekhethiwe.
Kunoma ikuphi, izimpawu zokuqala sezivele zikhombisa ukwehla okuthile emnothweni waseSpain nangokwandiswa kwamanye amazwe. Ukuthi ikwazi ukukhiqiza ukuthi inzuzo yezinkampani ingaphansi kunale minyaka. Futhi lokhu kungadluliselwa entengo yamasheya okulungiswa ngezinga elikhulu noma elincane. Isici esingadala ukuthi izimakethe zamasheya zomhlaba wonke zehle kakhulu. Lesi ngesinye sezingozi ozibeka obala kuzo uma uzokhetha izimali ezinyangeni ezizayo. Kungaba yisikhathi esifanele soku shintsha iphothifoliyo yakho yokutshala imali. Kokubili emakethe yamasheya nakweminye imikhiqizo yezezimali, njengezimali zokutshala imali.
Ukuncishiswa kwesikhuthazo semali
Inqubomgomo yemali ezinhlangothini zombili ze-Atlantic ingenye yezihluthulelo zokuvela kwemakethe yamasheya ngo-2019. Kodwa-ke, akhombisa ukwehluka okuthile phakathi kwalezi zindawo zombili zomnotho. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-United States Federal Reserve ithathe isinqumo sokuqeda unyaka ngenzalo engaphezulu kwe-1%, ngemuva kokuyinyusa ngekota lephuzu. Lokhu kungukunyuka kwesine kwentengo yemali selokhu ashintshe isu lakhe lezomnotho. Kulonyaka omusha, kulindeleke ukuthi inqubo ye- ukuhoxiswa kokuvuselela, yize kuzohamba kancane njengoba iFed iphikelela. Lesi sinqumo besingezona izaba zokuthi iDow Jones ikhuphuke ngama-25% ngonyaka odlule futhi yahlala ezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-European Union, isithombe sihluke kancane njengoba siqhubeka intengo yemali okungenani, ku-0%. Kusukela ngoJanuwari, i-European Central Bank izonciphisa ngesigamu ukuthengwa kwezikweletu zomphakathi nezangasese ezethulwe ukukhulisa ukuvuselelwa komnotho endaweni ye-euro. Ngokuhlinzeka ukuthi izimakethe zamasheya zase-Europe sehlise inani elicishe libe ngama-30% kule minyaka emihlanu edlule. Kodwa-ke, ku-2019 kuzoba nesimo esisha ngenxa yezinhloso zomzimba olawulayo wase-Europe ukuyeka ukuvuselela izimakethe zezezimali. Izindaba ezingamukelwa kahle ngabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi.
Ukuvela kwentengo kawoyela
Okunye ukugxila lapho kufanele kunakwe khona ku amanani kawoyela ongahluziwe. Noma ikuphi ukuphambuka okuphawulekayo okubheke phezulu noma phansi kuzokhiqiza ushintsho oluzumayo kuzintengo zama-stock indices. Esimweni sokuqala ngoba kuzodala ukungezwani kwamandla emali emnothweni omkhulu wamazwe omhlaba. Ngenkathi ihweba ngaphansi kwama- $ 40 - njengoba kwenzekile ngonyaka nohhafu owedlule - kuzodala ukuhlanekezelwa emazweni axhumene kakhulu nale mpahla yezezimali. Kunoma ikuphi, inani lentengo emgqonyeni ngamunye lizungeze ama-dollar angama-65, ngokunyuka konyaka kwama-24%. Izibikezelo zikhomba ukuthi uwoyela ongahluziwe ukhuphuka cishe ngo-10% kulo nyaka, ngokusho kombiko wakamuva weGoldman Sachs.
Umbono walo nyaka omusha ukuthi ukuthambekela kwegolide elimnyama kuphinda kuthuthukiswe. Lokhu kuyinto engajezisa ingxenye enhle yezimakethe zezimali. Yize ngokuphambene nalokho, kungaba yisikhathi esihle sokuthatha izikhundla ezinkampanini ezisohlwini ezixhunyaniswe nale mpahla yezezimali ebalulekile. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kuliqiniso ukuthi ungalimaza i- umnotho emhlabeni uyakhula ngendlela efanayo kuze kube manje. Lokhu kungenye ingozi ehambisana nokungena konyaka omusha, njengoba kwamukelwa isibalo esikhulu sabahlaziyi bezezimali.
Ukhetho e-Italy naseJalimane?
Isici sezepolitiki futhi sizothatha isinqumo sokuthi izimali zizothatha indlela eyodwa noma enye ezinyangeni ezizayo. Ngalo mqondo, ukhetho olungaba khona e-Italy ezinyangeni eziyishumi nambili ezizayo luzoba lubaluleke kakhulu. Akunakulibaleka ukuthi izwe elidlula ngaphesheya lingumnotho wesithathu ngobukhulu e-European Union, ngemuva kuphela I-Germany neFrance. Futhi owesishiyagalombili emhlabeni onomkhiqizo ophelele wasekhaya ongu- $ 1.850.735. Noma yimuphi umphumela odala ukungazinzi okwengeziwe kokwenza uhulumeni uzoba nemiphumela ezimakethe zezezimali, ikakhulukazi ezimakethe zamasheya.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, imakethe yamasheya izobe isalinde izingxoxo phakathi kwamaqembu amabili amaningi (i-CDU ne-SPD) ukuze zihlale kuhulumeni eJalimane. Ngoba kungenjalo kuzolahlwa kukhetho olusha entwasahlobo. Ngokukhombisa ukungazinzi ezimakethe zezezimali ngoba izingqinamba eziphuthuma kakhulu e-EU zingakhubazeka. Lo muzwa uthathwa ngamahloni yi I-DAX yaseJalimane lokho kushiywe cishe i-1% ngentengo yayo ngenyanga edlule. Okufanele kungezwe amandla amaqembu abizwa ngokuthi yi-populist.
Ukuhoxiswa kosizo ku-EU
Esinye isici sokubaluleka okukhethekile yilokho okubhekiswe ekuhoxisweni kwesikhuthazi e-European Union futhi esizokwenzeka kulo nyaka. Leli qiniso lingaba yi ukushaya okuphansi esikhwameni ngoba izikhundla ezimfushane zingabekwa ngokusobala kubathengi. Kunoma ikuphi, kuzoba ngesinye isici okuzodingeka sibalwe ngaso ngonyaka ozayo hhayi ngqo ngaphansi kwamandla amancane ngokuya ngenani lentengo yamasheya.
Akumangalisi ukuthi kuzoba yimali eningi esuka ezimakethe zamasheya iyofuna amanye amathuba ebhizinisi. Kokubili emholweni ongaguquki nakulokho okubhekwa njengokunye ukutshalwa kwezimali. Ukuthi kungabonisa ukuvela kwemakethe yamasheya ngo-2019. Izindaba ezingamukelwa kahle ngabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi.