Ukuba iimarike zokulingana zibonakaliswa yinto ngalo mzuzu, ngenxa yeziphumo zecoronavirus, kungenxa yokungazinzi okukhulu. Ukuya kwinqanaba lokuba iseshoni enye yokurhweba, ii-indices zinokuxabisa nge-4% ukushiya enye ngosuku olulandelayo. Ngale ndlela, kunzima kakhulu ukusebenzela abatyali zimali abancinci nabaphakathi, ngakumbi ukuba bafuna ukujonga ixesha elide. Ngaphandle kwendlela echaziweyo kwiimarike zesitokhwe kwihlabathi liphela, ngaphandle kwelona xesha lifutshane kwaye ke ijolise kwimisebenzi yokurhweba efuna oomatshini abohlukeneyo kwiintshukumo zabo.
Kule panorama inzima kakhulu ukuba iimarike zezabelo ezikhoyo okwangoku, lithuba lokujonga ukuba yintoni ukungazinzi kwiimarike zezemali. Kungenxa yokuba esi sicwangciso sotyalo-mali sichazwa kwipesenti kwaye sibalwa njengokuphambuka kwempahla (istokhwe, imali, njl. Njl.) Irejista ngokubhekisele kumndilili wexabiso lembali kwithuba elinikiweyo. Ngumahluko ophawuleka kakhulu kwiseshoni yokurhweba phakathi kwelona xabiso liphezulu kunye nelona xabiso lisezantsi kwaye elihamba ngaphaya kwesiqhelo kula matyala.
Ukusebenza kwimarike yemasheya ngokungazinzisi, akukho mathandabuzo okuba umntu kufuneka afunde ngakumbi kolu hlobo lokusebenza. Asingabo bonke abatyali mali abanokuvula izikhundla kwimeko yezi mpawu kuba angalahlekelwa yimali eninzi endleleni kwimisebenzi nganye. Endaweni yoko, ngokuchaseneyo, kufuna izakhono ezicace gca kwinxalenye yabasebenzisi kwimarike yemasheya ukuzama ukwenza inzuzo yokufumana imali yabo kwezo zihlandlo zikhethekileyo ezibonelelwa ziimarike zezabelo. Apho, kwaye ukuze usiqonde ngcono, nantoni na enokwenzeka ngalo mda wokutenxa kumaxabiso eeasethi zemali.
Ukuguquguquka kwemarike yemasheya: izizathu
Iziphumo zokugqibela Uphando lweYunivesithi yaseMichigan Kuyamangalisa, ipesenti yabaphenduli ababona ikamva elithembisayo lobutyebi babo kwisithuba seminyaka emi-5 bafikelele kumaxesha aphezulu. Impembelelo kwiimvakalelo zomkhankaso omkhulu we-Fed wokuhlangula ubonakala ngathi uyaphumelela ngokwamandla ayo okukholisa (ulwazi oluncinci).
Ukhetho lwaseSpain yenye yezona indices zibuthathaka kuqoqosho olukhulu, apho ibuye yafumana ubuncinci kwirali yasemva kokuphahlazeka-ye-COVID kunye nezo zilahlekileyo kwezona ntsuku zidlulileyo. Kuyinyani ukuba ufikelele kwinqanaba lokujolisa lokuqala kwaye ngoku ungathatha inyani yokufumana uncedo oluncinci kwiimarike zokulingana kwihlabathi. Ngokuchasene noko, ukuba ukuthengisa kuyanda, kuya kubaluleka ukubeka esweni ngokungqinelana nezalathiso zenkxaso, ukuba iyaziqhuba kumaxabiso okuvala kuya kuvula imeko ekhathazayo nenobumnyama kwixesha eliphakathi nelide.
Kutheni utyala imali kuguquguquko?
Ukuba nokuqonda okukuko kokungaziphathi kakuhle kunye nendlela ezisebenza ngayo izinto zokungaziphathi kubalulekile ekuhambeni ngendlela kwaye utyale imali kwilizwe elikhulayo lokungazinzi. Izinto ezizezinye ezinje ngokuguquguquka kwezinto zinokunika abatyali-zimali imithombo ebalulekileyo yotyalo-mali, ukunceda ukwandisa ukusebenza kwepotifoliyo, kunye nokunikezela unxibelelwano olusezantsi kunye neeasethi zesiko.
Yintoni ukungazinzi? Okokuqala, masiqonde ukuba abantu bathetha ntoni xa kufikwa kumba wokungazinzi.
Ukunyaniseka
Ukuguquguquka okuqinisekileyo yimilinganiselo yokungazinzi kwembali. Oku kukungazami okwenzekileyo kwixesha elidlulileyo, kodwa ukubala lixesha-elixhomekeke kwisakhelo, esinokudideka. Umzekelo, ukungazinzi okungaqondakaliyo kunokubhekisa kwimbuyekezo yemihla ngemihla kwiintsuku ezilishumi ezidlulileyo, imbuyekezo yenyanga yonyaka ophelileyo, okanye nembuyekezo yonyaka kule minyaka ilishumi idlulileyo. Abahwebi bahlala bekhankanya ukuba iintsuku ezingamashumi amathathu zonyaka ziye zafumanisa ukungazinzi.
Kuthetha ukungazinzi
Ukuguquguquka okuchaziweyo kulindelo lokukhetha kwimarike yokungazinzi kwixesha elizayo, ngokubanzi kuboniswe ngokwemigaqo yonyaka. Ngelixa ukungazinzi okuchongiweyo kumiselwa kwimbuyekezo yamaxabiso embali, oku kuthetha ukuba ukungazinzi kulindelekile kwaye kubalwa kumaxabiso okhetho. Eli linqanaba lokungazinzi okukhoyo kwisalathiso se-VIX Index, kunye nomlinganiso abantu abajonga ukurhweba ngawo.
Yintoni iVIX?
Isalathiso se-VIX lelona nyathelo lidumileyo lokungazinzi. Ngokukodwa, ukungazinzi okuchaziweyo kwipotifoliyo ye-S & P 500 yeentsuku ezingama-30 zokukhetha isalathiso. Idla ngokubizwa ngokuba "sisalathiso soloyiko" okanye ngokulula "i-VIX," isalathiso simele ulindelo lwentengiso lokungazinzi kwesitokhwe. Ngelixa isalathiso se-VIX ngokwaso singenakho ukurhweba, ikamva lesalathiso linika abatyali mali kunye neefreyji ukubonakaliswa okungagqibekanga kwisalathiso. Ikamva le-VIX limele uqikelelo oluhlanganisiweyo kwiimarike malunga nexabiso lesalathiso se-VIX ekukhuleni.
Zivela phi iimbuyekezo? Izibonelelo zokutyala imali kuguquguquko zivela kwimithombo emibini eyahlukeneyo kodwa ehambelana nayo:
Iprimiyamu yomngcipheko wokungazinzi (VRP)
Ipremiyamu yomngcipheko wokungazinzi yipremiyamu ehlawulwa ziihedgers ngaphezulu kokungazinzisi okukhethiweyo kwisalathiso se-S & P 500. Ipremiyamu ithathwa kubahedeni abahlawula ukukhusela iiphothifoliyo zabo, kwaye ibonakaliswe ngumahluko phakathi kwexabiso apho izinto ezithengiswayo zithengiswa (kuchaziweyo) ukungazinzi) kunye ne-volatility yokuba i-S & P 500 ekugqibeleni iyakuqonda (kufumaniseka ukungazinzi).
I-Premium Risk Premium (i-FRP)
I-VIX yekamva lomngcipheko weprimiyamu yipremiyamu eyongezelelweyo ehlawulwa ziihedgers kwikamva leVIX ngaphezulu kwesalathiso seVIX uqobo. Le primiyamu ihlala ibizwa ngokuba yi "spot", kwaye inokubonwa kwimeko yekamva elide le-VIX yokurhweba ngeprimiyamu kwi-VIX Index.
Ukutyala imali kuguquguquko yindlela yokuthengisa i-inshurensi engakumbi. Ukutyala imali kuguquguquko akufuneki kubhidaniswe nokuzikhusela kokungazinzi. Njengokuba uhlawula iipremiyamu zeinshurensi ukukhusela ikhaya lakho kumonakalo, abathathi-nxaxheba kwimarike bahlawula iipremiyamu zokungazinzi ukuzikhusela ekuweni kwentengiso. Njengeenkampani zeinshurensi, abatyali mali abangazinzanga banokuhlala bevuna le premium.
Kubalulekile ukuba ukhumbule ukuba iinkampani ze-inshurensi zikwenza iintlawulo emva kweziganeko ezibi, kwaye abatyali mali kwibala lokungazinzi banokufumana ukwehla okufanayo ngexesha leencopho zokungazinzi. Ngesi sizathu, ukutyala imali kuguquguquko kufuneka kujongwe kuphela kwimbono yexesha elide kunye nokwahluka kwiiphothifoliyo zesiko. Njengeenkampani zeinshurensi, abatyali zimali abangaguqukiyo bathatha umngcipheko wexesha elifutshane ukuvuna ipremiyamu yomngcipheko wexesha elide.
Lawula umngcipheko
Njengoko igama libonisa, ukubuya kokungazinzi kunokuba lula kumaxesha eengxwabangxwaba zentengiso, kwaye ulawulo lomngcipheko olufanelekileyo lubalulekile kutyalo mali. Kunye nohlalutyo olunzulu kunye nohlalutyo lobuchwephesha, nanga amanye amanqaku aphambili ekufuneka uwagcine engqondweni:
Gcina umbono wexesha elide
Ukutyala imali kwimeko yokungazinzi ayisiyonto yokufumana ubutyebi ngokukhawuleza. Luhlobo lweeasethi olunika umngcipheko obangela umdla kunye nembuyekezo yokubuya. Njengalo naliphi na udidi lweeasethi, kufuneka ibekwe ngononophelo kulwabiwo lwakho lweasethi kwaye ithunyelwe ngaphandle kwiingcali ukuba awusoloko ulijonga.
Yahlula ngokufanelekileyo
Ukongeza kulwabiwo lweasethi olwahlukeneyo, ukwahlula phakathi utyalo-mali lwakho lokungazinzi ngokwamaxesha ezinto, iimveliso zokungazinzisi, izicwangciso zokungazinzi, kunye nejografi inokunceda ukubuyela ngokutyibilikayo kunye nokuphucula ulungelelwaniso oluhlengahlengisiweyo lomngcipheko.
Yiba nenxaxheba
Ukugcina i-premium yomngcipheko wokungazinzi kunye ne-premium yomngcipheko kwikamva lakho, kunyanzelekile ukuba uhlale ucwangcisiwe, ulungelelanise ukubonakaliswa kwakho, kwaye uzimisele ukutshintshela imali rhoqo kwaye rhoqo.
Ukuqhambuka kwehlabathi kwe-COVID-19 kuthumele iimarike zestokhwe zehlabathi kwisiphithiphithi. Ngokuncipha okukhulu okulandelwa kukuqhushumba okukhulu usuku nosuku, ukungazinzi kuye kwaba yinto eqhubekayo yokuba abatyali mali babaphathe.
Abatyalomali abaninzi bafuna iindlela zokuguqula ukungazinzi kube yinzuzo. I-CBOE Volatility Index, ekwabizwa ngokuba yi-VIX, iyeyona nto iphambili kwindlela abatyhwatyhwa ngayo abanye abatyali mali, kodwa abatyali zimali basebenzisa umlinganiso ngokukuko njengenxalenye yezicwangciso zotyalo mali. Okulandelayo, siza kubona ngakumbi malunga ne-VIX kwaye kutheni kufuneka uyiqonde indima enokuthi iyidlale kwipotifoliyo yakho.
Ukurhweba nge-VIX
I-CBOE Volatility Index ivavanya iimarike onokukhetha kuzo ukumisela ukuba bangakanani abathathi-nxaxheba kwimarike yokuguquguquka abalindeleyo kwikamva elikufutshane. Ngokujonga iindlela ezahlukeneyo kunye namaxabiso abo, uyakwazi ukubala inani abatyali mali abalisebenzisileyo ukukhokela ukhetho lwabo. Ukuphakama kwenani, abatyali mali abangazinzanga ngakumbi balindele.
Nangona kunjalo, awunyanzelekanga ukuba ube ngumrhwebi onokukhetha ukufumana ulwazi oluxabisekileyo kwi-VIX. Abanye abatyali mali babiza i-VIX i-Index yoyika, kuba ihlala inyuka ngexesha lokudodobala kwiimarike kwaye iphantsi ngamaxesha angcono kwimarike yemasheya.
Iindlela zotyalo-mali kwi-VIX
Ukongeza, abatyali mali bafumene iindlela zokwenza imali ngokuthe ngqo kwiintshukumo ze-CBOE Volatility Index. Ukuthengiswa esidlangalaleni kwe-iPath S&P 500 VIX yeXesha elifutshane lexesha elizayo kufuna ukulandelela i-VIX ngokungena kwikontrakthi yexesha elizayo ebotshelelwe kumgangatho wokungazinzi, kwaye ukusuka ngoFebruwari 20 ukuya ku-Matshi 13, sele iphindaphindwe kathathu.
Ukuba unoburharha kwaye uthanda ukudlala okuyingozi, unokufumana ukubonwa ngakumbi kwi-VIX. I-ProShares Ultra VIX yeXesha eliFutshane lexesha elizayo ingaphezulu kokuphindaphindwa kabini ngeli xesha linye, kuba inexabiso lesabelo elifuna ukubonelela ngokubhengeza okuxhamliweyo amaxesha ama-1,5 okuhamba kwikamva le-VIX.
Yintoni ekufuneka ayazi wonke umtyalomali ongazinzanga ngelishwa, kukho iingozi ezininzi xa utyala imali kuguquguquko. Ziquka:
Ukuba kwicala elingalunganga lokurhweba ngokutshintsha kwezinto kunokuba yingozi kwipotifoliyo yakho. Umzekelo, iiProShares ezimfutshane zeVIX zeXesha elifutshane zexesha elizayo zenzelwe ukuba zihambele phezulu xa iVIX isiya ezantsi. Ilahlekile ngaphezulu kwesiqingatha sexabiso layo phakathi kwe-20 kaFebruwari kunye ne-Matshi 13, kwaye inokubona ilahleko enkulu nangakumbi ukuba i-spike volatility iyaqhubeka.
Utyalo-mali lokuzinikezela kwenzelwe ukuba lube lixesha elifutshane, kunye nembuyekezo ebotshelelwe kutshintsho lwemihla ngemihla kwi-VIX. Ixesha elide, ukuba notyalo mali olunxibelelene nokuguquguquka ibiyinto yokungcakaza embi. Imveliso ye-iPath volatility, umzekelo, ilahlekelwe yimali minyaka le ukusuka ngo-2009 ukuya ku-2017, yathumela inzuzo encinci ngo-2018, emva koko yehla ngesiqingatha sesithathu ngo-2019.
Ngenxa yoyilo lwazo, zombini ixesha elide nelifutshane lotyalomali olunokuthi lungalahleki ngokuhamba kwexesha. Ukuguquka okukhulu kunokuhamba nakweliphi na icala, kwaye banokukhawuleza kwaye babe nomsindo. Ekuqaleni kuka-2018, yonke into eyathathayo yayiyimini enye yokwanda kokungazinzisi ukuphelisa ingxowa mali emfutshane yokuxhathisa.
Ngaba kufanelekile ukubeka umngcipheko?
Yonke le micimbi kunzima ukuyibona xa amaxabiso otyalo-mali olunxibelelene nokuguquguquka enyuka imihla ngemihla. Nangona kunjalo, njengamasheya amaninzi kunye nee-ETFs ezithandwayo ixesha elifutshane ngaphambi kokuba zibuyele emhlabeni, ukutyala imali kuguquguquko kuthanda ukuzisa ixesha elide lelahleko eligqitywe kukugqabhuka kozuko ngamanye amaxesha njengoko sibonile kutshanje.
Ngeli xesha, uninzi lweenzuzo zokungazinzi kwi-ETFs sele zifakiwe kumaxabiso azo. Ukuguquguquka kwamandla kunokuqhubeka nokwanda. Nangona kunjalo, xa iimarike zizolile, abatyali mali abangazinzanga baya kufumanisa indlela ekunzima ngayo ukuba utyalomali lwabo lubuyele ezantsi ngokukhawuleza, nokuba isitokhwe esikumgangatho ophezulu sibonisa ixabiso laso lexesha elide.
Igama VIX sisishunqulelo se "index volatility." Ubalo lwalo luyinkimbinkimbi, kodwa eyona njongo iphambili kukulinganisa ukuba bangakanani abatyali zimali abalindele ukukubona kwi-S & P 500 Index kwiintsuku ezingama-30 ezizayo, ngokusekwe kumaxabiso ezinto ezikhethiweyo ze-S & P 500 Indexs Calm, VIX Low; Xa belindele utshintsho olukhulu kwintengiso, i-VIX inyuka.
Ngamaxesha esiphithiphithi esikhulu kwintengiso, i-VIX ithande ukunyuka. Igrafu engentla ibonisa ukuba isalathiso se-VIX sanyuka ngokuthe chu njengoko imakethi isondela kwincam ye-tech bubble ye-1990s esekupheleni, yazola ngexesha lokukhula okuzinzileyo lika-2003-2007, lanyuka ngexesha lobunzima bekhredithi ka-2008 nakwisiqingatha sesibini Ngo-2011, kunye nokunyuka okurekhodiweyo ekuqaleni nasekupheleni kuka-2018. Ngenxa yale patheni yokuziphatha, i-VIX ngamanye amaxesha yaziwa ngokuba yi "index index" - xa abathathi-nxaxheba beemarike bexhalabile malunga nemarike, i-VIX ithande ukunyuka.
Ukuzinza yinjini yokusebenza engaxhomekekanga kumaxabiso enzala, izabelo, okanye ukuxabisa amaxabiso, okwenza ukuba kube nomtsalane ngakumbi kubatyali mali abafuna eminye imithombo yokubuyisa.
Iimveliso zokungazinzi zinolungelelwaniso olubi olomeleleyo nee-equity kwaye ke ngoko longeze ixabiso njengezinto ezahlukeneyo zephothifoliyo. Unxibelelwano olubi lwe-equity volatility alusebenzi kwiimarike ze-equity, njengoko iipateni ezifanayo zinokufumaneka kwintengiso yamatyala. Iipiks ekusasazeni ngetyala zihlala zihambelana nokwanda kwe-equity volatility.
Ukongeza ekubeni ngumhlukanisi wepotifoliyo, ukungazinzi kunokukhusela kwimingcipheko ethile. Umzekelo, umtyali mali onesitokhwe okanye isalathiso sexesha elizayo esinokuchaphazeleka ngokuqinisekileyo okanye ngokungalunganga sisibhengezo esizayo unokugcina isitokhwe okanye ikamva kwaye akhusele umngcipheko ngokungazinzi.
Njengoko kuchaziwe kuncwadi, izinto ezahlukeneyo zesintu zibonelela ngamathuba ambalwa okwahlukahlukana ngexesha lengxaki yemali. Ukunyaniseka kwe-equity, okumelwe yi-VIX, kunokusebenza njengokwahluka kwendalo, njengolungelelwaniso lwayo olubi kunye nee-equity kunye nolunye udidi lweeasethi olonyukayo ngexesha lobunzima. I-VIX yexesha elizayo ibonelela ngezibonelelo ezahlukeneyo xa zifunwa kakhulu. Njengoko ubona ngokulula ngezantsi, ukurhweba ngokunyaniseka kunokuba nomvuzo omkhulu. Kananjalo, ngokwembali, sinokufumanisa ukuba izicwangciso zotyalo-mali kutyalomali ziye zavelisa imbuyekezo ephezulu ngeelahleko ezisezantsi xa kuthelekiswa neephothifoliyo zemveli zesiko.