Ukutyala kwigolide ngokunxulumene nokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nonikezelo lwemali

Uninzi lwee-indices zesitokhwe kwihlabathi liphela lubuyile luphelele okanye ngokuyinxenye, abanye bade bacwangcisa iirekhodi zamva nje. Izizathu ezisisiseko eziza kuthi ziingqikelelo zokukhula ngokubanzi kwe-GDP phakathi kwamazwe, kubandakanya isitofu sokugonya, ukubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo ngokukhawuleza, ukuba ubudlelwane bezorhwebo phakathi kwamazwe buza kuphucuka, njalo-njalo kuluhlu olude. Nangona kunjalo, ngaba iyekile ukuba yinzuzo kwaye lixesha lokutyala imali kwigolide elidlulileyo?

Esinye sezona zinto zisisiseko zaziwayo endinazo malunga negolide yile yindawo entle yokusabela kumaxabiso emali. Ngelixa izithintelo zikhona, abatyali mali abaninzi kunye nabaphathi babonisa malunga nokunyuka kwamaxabiso okuzayo kwaye banika inkcazo yabo yokunyuka kwegolide. Abanye bayaqhubeka nokumkhusela, nangona elahlekile ngaphezulu kwe-10% ukusuka kwindawo yakhe ephezulu. Ngaba ziphosakele okanye yinto eyothatha ixesha elide ukufika? Ngolunye uhlobo, ukuba ne-ace up sleeve yakho ayisiyo mbono mbi, kwaye sikubonile ukunyukela kwigolide ngabatyali mali sonke siyabazi kwaye nangabanye ababengasoze batyale imali kuyo.

Utyalo-mali kwigolide, ingxaki yokuhambelana

Amaxesha amaninzi ndivile abantu abaninzi bedibanisa igolide nexabiso lentengo. Abanye abantu batyhola isimilo sabo kwimarike leyo. Kukho abo bakhusela ukuba igolide iziphatha ngokuchasene nokuxabiseka kwesalathiso sedola. Ngamafutshane, nangona kungenjalo ncam, inyani kukuba bonke abo bantu ndibavileyo bebelungile kwaye kwangaxeshanye.

Isiphetho endinokusifumana ngokobuqu kukuba Zonke iimeko ezichazwe ngaphambili ziyahlangana ngaxeshanye. Ke igolide, ejongene namaxesha okungaqiniseki, ubunzima, okanye ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuhlala (kodwa hayi rhoqo) ukubona ixabiso laso litshintshiwe. Quote eya kuba phantsi komdla kwesi sinyithi ngabatyali mali, amaziko kunye neebhanki.

Ukwenza oku, siza kubona ezona zinto ziphambili ezinokuchaphazela ixabiso lakho.

Igolide nokunyuka kwamaxabiso

Ngaphambi kokubeka itshathi yegolide, ndandifuna ukubeka phambili ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-United States. Njengoko sibona, sinemiba ethile efanelekileyo. Eli nani lilandelayo kukugcina engqondweni.

1. Ukuchasana. Ibhokisi etyheli. Amashumi eminyaka ama-20 kunye nama-30. Ngeli xesha lokuphumla, siyakwazi ukubona indlela ukuvela kwe-deflation.
2. Ixabiso lentengo liphezulu kune-10%. Iibhokisi eziluhlaza. Sinamaxesha ama-3. Ukugxininisa amaxesha ukusukela ekuqaleni nasekupheleni kweminyaka ngeencopho eziphezulu.
3. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kungaphantsi kwe-5%. Sineentlambo ezintathu ezinkulu. Eyokuqala yazo yeyendawo yokuqala, leyo ye-Deflation.

Kwenzeka ntoni xa ixabiso legolide lihlengahlengiswa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso?

Ngenxa yokunyuka kwamaxabiso, amaxabiso azo zonke iiasethi ahlala enyuka ekuhambeni kwexesha. Igolide ayikho ngaphandle, kwaye ngenxa yesi sizathu le grafu ingentla ilungelelaniselwe ukunyuka kwamaxabiso. Oko kukuthi, liliphi ixabiso elinokufumana iglosari yegolide kwixa elidlulileyo ngokwexabiso ledola namhlanje. Ukuba ngoku sijonga itshathi eqhelekileyo yegolide (ayivelwanga ukuze ingagqithisi ngaphezulu), singabona ukuphononongwa kwayo kwakhona. Siza kuvavanya ezona ngongoma zibalulekileyo malunga nayo.

• Amaxesha okunyuka kwamaxabiso. Amaxesha ngaphambi kokuphulukana nenkqubo ekuvunyelwene ngayo eBretton Woods, igolide ibonisa ukwehla kwexabiso langaphakathi xa kukho ukunyuka kwamaxabiso. Nangona kunjalo, Ngenkqubo yezoqoqosho yokutshintsha kwamaxabiso otshintshiselwano, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunxibelelana nexabiso elinyukayo legolide. Kufuneka kongezwe ukuba inkqubo yeBretton Woods yaphulwe kukushicilelwa okukhulu kweedola ukuxhasa imali kwiVietnam. Ukulandela iimfuno ezivela eFrance nase-Great Britain zokuguqula oovimba babo begolide benziwe igolide kwaye banciphisa oovimba begolide baseMelika. Umxholo, oyinto yonke, wahlukile kowangoku.
• Amaxesha okuchazwa. Ngala maxesha igolide inyuke ngexabiso. Nangona kunjalo, emva kwengxaki yemali ebangelwe kukuwa kwe-Lehman Brothers, kwabakho ixesha elifutshane apho ukuvela kwe-deflation kwavela khona kwaye negolide lonyuka ngexabiso. Nangona kunjalo, isizathu soku kunyuka sinesizathu sokuba ikhuthazwe yingxaki yezoqoqosho kunye nokungathembani okukhulu kwenkqubo yeebhanki kunokusilela ngokwako.
• Ixesha lokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Emva kokuba iqamza le-dot-com liqhume, igolide yenze kakuhle, nangona kunjalo khange iqhube kakuhle kwiminyaka edlulileyo. Esi sizathu sinokukhuthazwa kakhulu kukhangelo lwegolide njenge-asethi ekhuselekileyo.

Izigqibo zegolide ngokunyuka kwamaxabiso

Ukuba ixabiso legolide lonyuka ngepesenti ngaphezu kwexabiso lentengo, kuyinzuzo ukuyityala (le ngxelo "nge-tweezers"!). Ngelixa kuyinyani ukuba iyodwa njengendawo elungileyo ekuhambeni kwexesha, umnqweno womtyali mali awunakuba kude kangako ngexesha. Ke ngoko, ukutyala igolide ngamaxesha otshintsho olomeleleyo lukhetho olufanelekileyo. Ukuba ulungile xa olu tshintsho luza kwenzeka kwaye utyale imali ngaphambili, imbuyekezo enokufunyanwa iyanelisa kakhulu.

Isiphetho kukuba ebusweni bamaxesha okunyuka kwamaxabiso aphezulu, igolide inokuba yindawo elungileyo yokusabela. Ukongeza, imeko elikuyo uqoqosho lwehlabathi ithanda umdla omkhulu kuyo. Ngelo xesha Asijongene nemeko ephezulu yokunyuka kwamaxabiso, kodwa sijamelene nemeko yoqoqosho engalindelekanga yeziphumo zokugqibela zengxaki ekhoyo.

Inqaku elidibeneyo:

Ukulinganiswa kweGolide yeSilivere

Ubunzima bezemali Yiyiphi indima oyikhulisayo yokutyala igolide?

Unikezelo lwemali, kwi-macroeconomics, sisixa esipheleleyo semali esifumanekayo sokuthenga iimpahla, iinkonzo okanye ukhuseleko lokonga. Ifunyanwa ngokudibanisa imali ezandleni zoluntu ngaphandle kokungena ezibhankini (amatyala kunye neengqekembe) noovimba bebhanki. Ukudityaniswa kwezi zinto zimbini sisiseko semali (siza kuthetha kamva). Isiseko sezeMali siphindaphindwe ngophindayo ophethe imali yiMali yeMali.

Kwigrafu yokuqala uya kubona ukuba iMali yeMali inyuke njani kakhulu. NgoJanuwari 2020 ibiyi-15 yezigidi zeedola, okwangoku eli nani lenyuke laya kwi-3 trillion yeedola. Ubuninzi beMali kwiidola bonyuke nge-3 trillion ngo-8, oko kukuthi, ngama-2020%!

Ngokusekwe kubudlelwane nexabiso lokunyuka kwamaxabiso, umgaqo-nkqubo wolawulo lwendalo ubambe ukuba kukho unxibelelwano phakathi kwesixa semali esijikelezayo kunye namaxabiso kuqoqosho. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-Keynesian theory ithi akukho nxu lumano phakathi kokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nokunikezelwa kwemali, ngakumbi xa uqoqosho lukhula. Ke ukuzama ukufumana enye into, masiqwalasele ubudlelwane kunye nesiseko semali.

Ukulinganiswa kwegolide kunye neSiseko seMali

Siyayibona indlela Isiseko seMali sonyuke ngokuqaphelekayo. Kakhulu njengesiphumo semigaqo-nkqubo "yehelikopta".

Xa ubona le grafu uyazi ukuba kunzima ukuqhubeka ngoluhlobo ixesha elide ngaphandle kotshintsho. Okanye mhlawumbi kuye kwabonwa izinto ezingaqhelekanga ngakumbi. Ngesi sizathu, ukuba akukho kunyuka kwamaxabiso nasemva kokungakwazi ukufumana okuninzi ngobudlelwane begolide nexabiso lentengo, mhlawumbi ukujonga ubudlelwane kunye nesiseko semali ngekhe kube yinto engekenziwa. (Ukuthathela ingqalelo into yokuba asinakho ukuzoba ubudlelwane phakathi kwexabiso lentengo kunye nesiseko semali, njengoko amaKeyyn aphikisayo).

Igrafu elandelayo kulindeleke ukuba iveze ngakumbi. Isibonisa umlinganiso phakathi kwegolide kunye nesiseko semali.

Amanqaku aliqela anokuqaqanjiswa:

1. Njengoko ubona, Ukushicilelwa kwemali enkulu kubangele ukuba umyinge wehle ikakhulu phakathi kuka-1960 no-1970 (ngenxa yeMfazwe yaseVietnam, njengoko bekuxoxiwe ngaphambili).
2. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuqhuba ixabiso legolide kule minyaka ilandelayo, kodwa Ukungaqiniseki kwaqhuba kwaye kwaqhubeka kunceda ukunyuka kwexabiso, Ukufikelela kwiincopho eziphakamileyo kakhulu kumyinge. (Kuyakudingeka ukuphindaphinda i-x10 nangaphezulu ixabiso langoku legolide ukufumana umlinganiso we-5 njengoko wawufikile kuwo).
3. Ukonyuka kwesiseko semali okoko ingxaki yemali ikhuphile (kwaye ibalekile) ukuhla kumyinge ongabonwanga ngaphambili.
4. Okwangoku, thengisa umlinganiselo ophakamileyo wegolide kwisiseko semali, ibisenzuzo ngakumbi. Ngendlela efanayo, utyalo-mali kwigolide esezantsi kwi-ratio, izibonelelo ezinkulu ezizayo.

Izigqibo zegolide esisiseko semali

Kuphela ukuba igolide iphinde yahlaziywa kumanqanaba akhoyo ukuze kutshatiswe nesiseko esikhoyo semali, indlela eya phezulu ibiya kuba ngaphezulu kwe-100%. Ukuba umlinganiso uthambekele kwi-1, nokuba kungenxa yokoyika ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, iingxaki ezinamandla ezihamba namaxesha okungaqiniseki, njl.njl. Singazifumana siphambi kwemeko apho kuthotywa ixabiso legolide. Kuyaphazamiseka kuba ixabiso lalo lifikelele kumaxesha aphezulu kutshanje, kodwa ke nesiseko semali.

Izigqibo zokugqibela malunga nokuba lukhetho olufanelekileyo lokutyala igolide

Akukho modeli yokulinganisa inye yokufumanisa elona xesha lilungileyo lokutyala igolide. Nangona kunjalo, sikwazile ukufumanisa ukuba njani Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, isiseko semali kunye nengxaki zichaphazela kwi. Umxholo wonke, ngokufutshane. Ukongeza, uqoqosho luyindlela yokuziphatha, kwaye umtyali mali olungileyo ngoku kufuneka azibuze ukuba siphi. Kananjalo yeyona inokwenzeka.