Kukho intelekelelo engapheliyo malunga nohlobo lokuphinda uqoqosho lwase-US lube nalo. Ngaba iya kuba kukuphinda ubuyise okwenziwe ngo-V ngokukhawuleza, okanye ixesha elide phakathi kokuhla kunye nokubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo emva koko (ubume be-U)? Ezinye iindlela ezinokubakho zokuchacha ziye zathelekiswa noonobumba "W" no "L".
Ngokwenyani, le suphu yealfabhethi "ekugqibeleni ayibalulekanga kangako," ngokukaVincent Deluard, intloko yesicwangciso esikhulu sehlabathi kwifemu yotyalo-mali INTL FCStone. Kwi-imeyile, wathi abatyali-mali akufanele badimazeke oku, kuba, uthi, "ukuqikelelwa kwezoqoqosho, umthambo onobungozi ngamaxesha angcono kakhulu, akunamsebenzi ngakumbi namhlanje: asazi ukuba kuya kubakho igagasi lesibini. losulelo okanye hayi, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okanye ukuhla kwamandla emali, ukuhla koqoqosho okanye ijubhile yetyala, njl. »
Ke ngoko, ukwazi ukuba uqikelelo aluhlukanga kakhulu kwizicwangciso zethu zotyalo-mali kufuneka kusiqinisekise. Ngayiphi na imeko, ukudodobala kwecoronavirus kusenokuba sele kugqityiwe, kodwa kukunyuka okude ukuya "kwesiqhelo."
I-GDP kule kota
U-Deluard wafikelela kwisigqibo sakhe sokuphikisa xa ebala imbuyekezo yomtyali mali oqinisekileyo ukuba uza kuba liliphi ikota yokugqibela kwi-GDP. Oku kubandakanya inqanaba elimangalisayo lokucaca, ewe, kuba kukude emva kokuba ikota ethile iphelile ukuba urhulumente afike kumzobo wokugqibela we-GDP kuloo kota.
Nangona kunjalo, u-Deluard ufumanise ukuba lo mtyalomali uqikelelweyo, ngaphandle kokuba ene-clairvoyance engummangaliso, ngekhe ashiye isicwangciso esilula sokuthenga nokubamba kule minyaka ingamashumi asixhenxe idlulileyo.
Ngokukodwa, wayecinga ukuba lo mtyalomali uzakutya imali eyi-100% ukuba ukukhula kwe-GDP kwezi kota zine zilandelayo kwakukhawuleza kunakwikota yangoku; Ngaphandle koko, uza kutyala imali ezinkozo. Ukusukela ekupheleni kweminyaka yoo-40, lomtyali mali ebezakube ephumeze i-S & P 500 SPX, + 0,43% engaphantsi kwepesenti enye ngonyaka. Lowo ngumvuzo omncinci wokuba yi-tipster egqibeleleyo, ngakumbi kuba iingxaki ziyamangalisa ukuba uqikelelo lwethu luya kuwa kude, kude nokugqibelela.
Cinga ukuba ukufumanisa kukaDeluard kuthetha ntoni kwimeko yethu yangoku engaqinisekanga, apho singazi ngokwenene ukuba uqoqosho lukhula ngokukhawuleza kangakanani. Kodwa besingayi kuba nethuba lincinci kunabanye abatyali zimali nokuba besisazi ngoku ukuba ukukhula koqoqosho kuzakukhawulezisa kwikota yesibini yowama-2021.
Kutheni le nto ulwazi ngezinga lokukhula kwexesha elizayo loqoqosho lubaluleke kangako? UDeluard uthi kungenxa yokuba umda wenzuzo kunye nemilinganiselo ye-P / E ibaluleke kakhulu. Uqoqosho lusenokukhula ngezinga elikhawulezayo, emva kwayo yonke loo nto, kodwa ukuba umda wenzuzo uyancipha ukukhula kwawo akuyi kuguqulela kwinzuzo eyandisiweyo. Kwaye umvuzo okhula ngokukhawuleza awunakuhlala ukodlula ukwehla kwe-P / E.
Ingeniso yexesha elizayo yeenkampani
Indima egqithisileyo edlalwe ngumlinganiso we-P / E inxulumene nenqanaba lesaphulelo elisetyenziswa ngabatyali mali- ngokucacileyo okanye ngokungacacanga- xa bexabisa umvuzo wexesha elizayo weenkampani. Ngezinga eliphezulu lesaphulelo, iingeniso kwiminyaka ezayo zithetha kancinci kwinkcitho yangoku yenkampani. Ngezinga lesaphulelo esisezantsi, zibaluleke ngakumbi. Ngapha koko, u-Deluard kutsha nje ubonise ukuba, ngokuxhomekeke kwinqanaba lesaphulelo elisetyenzisiweyo, i-S & P 500 ngoku inexabiso eliphakathi kwe-1.851 kunye ne-3.386.
Akumangalisi ukuba, njengoko u-Deluard ebeka, ukwazi kwangaphambili inqanaba lokukhula kwe-GDP "akunamsebenzi ngokumangalisayo." Akukho nanye kwezi yokuba uqoqosho alunamsebenzi. Kubalulekile, kunjalo. Kodwa impembelelo yakho ibaluleke kakhulu xa ujolise kwimarike yesitokhwe yexesha elide. Ngexesha elifutshane, uqoqosho ludlala indima encinci kunemilinganiselo yenzuzo kunye namaxabiso ezaphulelo abophelelwe kuqingqo-maxabiso.
Le ngxoxo ikwabeka kwingxoxo-mpikiswano yakutshanje malunga nokunqamka okubonakalayo phakathi kwemarike yemasheya noqoqosho. Oko kuboniswa luphando lukaDelpard kukuba oku kunqunyulwa akukho kutsha okanye kukhulu ngoku kunakwiminyaka edlulileyo.
Abatyalomali balindele ukubuyela ngokukhawuleza kwezoqoqosho njengoko i-NASDAQ 100 ibetha phezulu kwaye i-S & P 500 ishenxisa ilahleko yonyaka. Isalathiso se-S & P 500 ye-benchmark yehle phantse i-34% ukusuka ngo-Februwari ukuya ku-Matshi ngo-Matshi, ukutyhala iimarike kwindawo ye-bearish. Ukunyuka kwetekhnoloji kunye nokunxibelelana kwezitokhwe kuye kwonyusa ingeniso ye-NASDAQ, kunye neenkampani ezinje nge-Zoom ziphantse zaphindeka kathathu ixabiso lesabelo ukusukela ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari njengoko ukutshixa kunyanzelisa abathengi ukuba bamkele iindlela zonxibelelwano.
Imarike yenkomo entsha yaqinisekiswa kwiiveki nje ezili-16 emva kokuba uloyiko lwe-COVID-19 lubone abatyali zimali bethengisa ngeeasethi zabo xa imeko yezoqoqosho yayisoyikwa eUnited States.
I-NASDAQ inyuke nge-44,7% ukusuka ezantsi kwayo ngoMatshi 23. Imarike yenkomo ngokubanzi ithathwa njengokunyuka okungaphezulu kwama-20% ukusuka kwelona ziko lisezantsi.
Uqoqosho oluphambili lwe-BetaShare u-David Bassanese ukholelwa ukuba iimarike zinokuba nethemba lokugqithisa ngaphezulu kwezikhundla zangaphambili.
Ekugqibeleni, ndiyarhanela ukuba iimarike zizakuba nethemba eligqithisileyo ngesantya sokubuyiselwa koqoqosho, kodwa iimarike ekugqibeleni ziqhutywa ziindaba zemihla ngemihla, ezithe zahlala zikhuthaza ukusukela oko zabekwa. Ukuvalwa kwehlabathi kuyaqhubeka, utshilo.
Idatha yezoqoqosho engalunganga
Emva kwayo yonke loo nto, imarike ibiziphungulile ngokufanelekileyo iinkcukacha zoqoqosho ezingalunganga ezinxulumene nokutshixwa ngexesha lokuthengisa ngo-Matshi, kwaye ke ikhuselekile kule datha xa iqala ukuvela kwiinyanga ezidlulileyo, utshilo uMnu Bassanese.
Njengoko uqoqosho luqala ukuvula kwakhona, isazi ngezoqoqosho sithetha ukuba umfanekiso ocacileyo wembonakalo yezoqoqosho uya kuba nefuthe kwimarike yemasheya.
“Imakethi ikwazile ukugxila kwizibonelelo zokuvalwa ngokubhekisele kwicaba eligudileyo, ukuvulwa kwakhona ngokuthe ngcembe kwaye ngoku ezinye zeempawu zokuqala zesaphulelo sedatha yezoqoqosho yamva nje. Kodwa umceli mngeni uza kuza emva kokuqalwa kokuqala kwedatha yezoqoqosho emva kokuphinda kuvulwe, ukuba idatha yedatha iphumelele kakhulu, njengoko ndicinga ukuba iyakuba njalo.
"Imakethi inokuthi iqhubeke nokusebenza ngokungathi kukho indibano emile okwe-V de kubekho ubungqina obucacileyo bento echaseneyo," uqhubeke watsho uMnu Bassanese.
Eyona nto iphambili kwintengiso yayiyingxelo yangoLwesihlanu yenyanga yengqesho, eyabonisa ukwehla okungalindelekanga kwinqanaba lokungabikho kwemisebenzi, eqinisa umbono wokuba owona monakalo mkhulu wezoqhambuko lwentsholongwane uphelile.
Izitokhwe ezazifudula zibethwa nzima kukucinywa, kubandakanya ezothutho, ezokhenketho kunye nomzi mveliso weentengiso, zikhuphukile njengoko abatyali zimali benethemba malunga nomhlaba othintelweyo we-COVID-19. "Okwenzekayo ngokucacileyo kukuba uchulumanco lokuvulwa kwakhona luvumela uninzi lwala mashishini abengamaxhoba e-COVID-19 ukuba abuye abuyele emandleni, utshilo uStanley Druckenmiller, uMongameli kunye ne-CEO ye-Ofisi yoSapho yaseDuquesne., ukuya kwi-CNBC.
Nangona kunjalo, uMnu Bassanese ulumkise abatyali mali base Australia ukuba balumke kwaye babe nomonde xa betyala imali kwintengiso yaseMelika.
“Ndisacinga ukuba lixesha lokuba ulumke, ngakumbi ukuba awukathengi kwirally ye-equity yangoku ngendlela ebalaseleyo. Uloyiko lokuphoswa ngoku lukhulu, kodwa ndiyarhana ukuba kungakho ukubuyela umva okuhle kwiinyanga ezizayo- ubuncinci isiqingatha sesiphindlo esivela ekupheleni kuka-Matshi-njengoko inyani yokubuyela umva komndilili iyabonakala, utshilo uMnu Bassanese .
Iziphumo ezomeleleyo zamanye amazwe ziye zonyusa isitokhwe sasekhaya, kwaye intengiso yase-Australia inyuke nge-2,48% ngexesha lokushicilela.
Ukuhamba kweendlela kwintengiso yesitokhwe
Abatyalomali baphawuleka ukuba banomdla, kwaye iipesenti ezingama-75 zilindele ukubuyiselwa kwimeko ye-U- okanye ye-W kwimeko yokuwa kwezoqoqosho kwindyikitya yokufa kwe-coronavirus, xa kuthelekiswa ne-10% kuphela elindele ubume be-V, ngokophando lwamva nje lomphathi. . Igagasi lesibini le-coronavirus ngowona mngcipheko mkhulu womsila, kunye ne-52% yabaphathi abavavanyiweyo bayicaphula, ngelixa ukungabikho kwemisebenzi ngokusisigxina (i-15%) kunye nokwahlulwa kwe-European Union (i-11%) kuhlala kwindawo yesibini neyesithathu.
Abaphathi bayazigxotha iinkxalabo zabathengisi njengoko izitokhwe zase-US zisondela kwiindawo eziphakamileyo ze-tech bubble. Unyango akufuneki lube lubi kunesi sifo
Iimali zabaphathi abaninzi zinciphisa ukubonakaliswa kwezabelo kwinqanaba elisezantsi. Amanqanaba emali ehle kancinane ukuya kwi-5,7% ukusuka kwi-5,9% ngo-Epreli, kodwa asengaphezulu komndilili weminyaka eli-10 edlulileyo ye-4,7%, ebonisa ukuba "Thenga umqondiso" yibheji yokubheja.
Ukugcina olu tyalo-mali "lwe-bearish kakhulu", abaphendulayo banempahla ye-cyclical engaphantsi, njengamandla kunye nemizi-mveliso, kwaye banobunzima bokuzikhusela, njengokukhathalela impilo, imali kunye neebond. Ixabiso ngokuchasene nokukhula kwengxoxo libuyile kumanqanaba eengxaki zangaphambi kwezezimali, nge-23% yomnali wabatyali mali bekholelwa ukuba isitokhwe asizukuqhuba kakuhle ukukhula, inani elibonwe okokugqibela ngoDisemba 2007.
Uluvo lwabatyali mali
Uninzi lwabaphathi (iipesenti ezingama-63) bathi iinkampani zixhotyiswe kakhulu, zixhasa umbono wokuba abatyali mali bafuna iinkampani ukuba zichithe imali yazo ekuphuculeni ii-balance sheet, nge-net engama-73% ekulindele oku, ngelixa i-15% ifuna ukunyuswa kwe-capex kunye ne-7% Ndifuna imali ibuyiselwe kubanini zabelo.
I-euro ijongeka ngathi ayibizi kakhulu kubaphenduli, nge-17% yomnatha iphakamisa ukuba imali ayixabisekanga, ngelixa i-43% iyakholelwa ekubeni idola libalelwe ngaphezulu, nangona ukubhencwa kwamasheya ase-US kuhlala kungama-24% okutyebileyo ngelixa ii-Eurozone equities zingaphantsi (17% net), ezona ziphantsi Ulwabiwo ukusukela ngoJulayi 2012.
Ngaphandle koku, i-UK ibingowona mmandla ubutyebile kakhulu kuvavanyo lwalo nyanga lwabaphathi bengxowa-mali behlabathi, nge-net ye-33%. Ngelixa kwelinye icala kufuneka kukhunjulwe ukuba ukucwangciswa kwakhona kwempahla, ukwanda kwezokhuseleko kunye neendlela ezintsha zerhafu ephezulu, kuhlala kwindawo yokuqala kuluhlu lwabatyali zimali kutshintsho lolwakhiwo kwihlabathi lasemva koRhulumente, kukhankanyiwe 68 %, 44% kunye ne-42% yexesha ngokwahlukeneyo.
Ukuyekiswa kwetyala, amandla aluhlaza, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nengeniso esisiseko kwindalo iphela ikuluhlu lwale nyanga lotshintsho olunokwenzeka emva kwendyikityha.
Ukugcina imali kwii-commissions
Ingakumbi abatyali mali abenza imisebenzi emininzi ngonyaka, zombini ezijolise kwixesha elifutshane, eliphakathi okanye elide, banokusebenzisa amaxabiso entengiso yesitokhwe aqala ukuthengisa ngakumbi nangakumbi amaziko emali kwaye, avumela ukonga okubalulekileyo ngokweekhomishini. yemisebenzi eyenziweyo. Ireyithi yayo iphakathi kwe-6 kunye ne-10 ye-euro ngenyanga, kwaye kumntu owenza imisebenzi emine ngenyanga, umzekelo, ukonga kunokuthetha malunga ne-30 ye-euro ngenyanga nge-avareji, ethi incede ekuphuculeni utyalo-mali. Ireyithi ethe tyaba kwimarike yemasheya ivumela umsebenzisi ukuba enze imisebenzi yokuthenga nokuthengisa njengoko befuna, njengoko kunjalo ngomnxeba okanye ngeintanethi. Nangona ukusetyenziswa kwayo kungaxhaphakanga kakhulu kwicandelo lezemali, ikakhulu kugubungela iibhanki kunye neebhanki zokonga ezisebenza nge-Intanethi kwaye okanye abarhwebi, kuzwelonke nakwamanye amazwe, zezona zibonelela ngeemeko ezilungileyo.
Ngayiphi na imeko, akunakulityalwa ukuba ukuthengwa okuhle kwiimarike zesitokhwe kuthetha ukwenza inkqubela phambili enkulu ukuze iziphumo ngohlobo lweenzuzo ezinkulu zingathathi ixesha elide ukufika, kodwa oku kuyimfuneko ukuthatha uthotho Izikhokelo kunye nezilumkiso ngenjongo yokuba isikhundla esibi sithathe ubunzima bokugcina utyalo-mali lwethu kwixa elizayo, kwaneendleko zokukhula kwethuba elongezelelekileyo.
Phambi kokuthatha isikhundla kukhuseleko, kuyacetyiswa ukuba kufundwe umba wobuchwephesha kunye nesiseko, hayi ukushiya kukhetho olunokukhetha olunokuzisa kuphela iingxaki kwimidla yabatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi, ikakhulu ngendlela yokukhubazeka.
Ukungena kumacandelo afanelekileyo kwenza lula umsebenzi wokukhetha xa usakha iphothifoliyo, njengoko inokubamba iimvakalelo zentengiso ezilungileyo, nokuba yeyiphi na ukubheja ekhethiweyo, ukuba nje idatha esisiseko yeenkampani inethemba.
Kwiindlela eziya phezulu, umthetho oqhelekileyo phakathi kwabatyali mali abanamava kukulinda ukunciphisa amaxabiso eenkampani ukungena kwimarike ngamaxabiso akhuphisanayo, oko kungakhokelela kukunyuka okuphezulu kwixabiso.ixabiso, ke ngoko, likhulu amathuba okuhlaziya. Oku kusikwa kwenzeka xa kukho "ukudinwa" kwindawo yokuthenga kwaye ukuthengisa kuqala ukuntywila, oko kukuthi, xa imarike ithengwe kakhulu kwaye ifuna uhlengahlengiso kumaxabiso ukuze iqhubeke nokunyuka kwayo. Ezi "ziqhekeza" kwixabiso layo locaphulo, apho ukuthengisa kuqala ukuvela, kwenzeka amaxesha amaninzi ngexesha lenkqubo yokwenyusa, nkqu nabahlalutyi bemarike yemasheya bayichaza njenge "iintshukumo zentengiso esempilweni ngokupheleleyo”Esebenzela ii-indices, amacandelo okanye izitokhwe ukufumana amandla ngakumbi kwiiseshoni ezilandelayo zorhwebo. Zifanele ngokukodwa abo batyalomali bajolise kwixesha elifutshane kwaye bafuna ukufumana yonke "ijusi" yabo kwiintshukumo ezinyukayo ezifunyanwa zii-equity. Ngokuchasene noko, abanampumelelo incinci kwabo bakhetha utyalo-mali lwabo kwixesha eliphakathi nelide kuba iziphumo zabo zingazukusebenza.
Ukuthenga izitokhwe kufutshane nexabiso lenkxaso: Ngokusebenzisa iitshathi kuya kubakho ukujonga amaxabiso akule meko, ukuze emva koko uzithengise kwindawo yokumelana, okanye kwimeko apho izixhaso zaphukile. Elinye lamaqhinga alula asetyenziswa kwimarike yemasheya, nangona oku kufanelekile ukugcina ukulandelelana kwangexesha kwamaxabiso abagqatswa abanokubakho abanokuba yinxalenye yepotifoliyo yezokhuseleko.
Ukhuseleko olubethe ezantsi: Ngomnye wemeko ezifanelekileyo kuye nawuphi na umtyali mali ekufuneka ajongane nokuthengwa, nangona kunengxaki enkulu yokuba kunzima ukuthengisa abathengisi ukuba bafumane le ndawo kwaye kufuneka bancedwe luhlalutyo olwenziwe ngabalamli abaziintloko okanye okanye abarhwebi ezezimali, ezipapashwa kumajelo eendaba akhethekileyo. Phambi kokuthatha isikhundla kukhuseleko, kuyacetyiswa ukuba ufunde ngobuchwephesha kunye nobalulekileyo.