Ngaba lixesha lokujonga i-stock market yaseBrithani?

I-stock market yaseBrithani

I-stock market yaseBrithani yenye yezona zithiywa kakhulu kwihlabathi. Abatyali-mali bayayifulathela, abaphathi bengxowa-mali bayayiphepha kwaye kuphela abo batyala imali kuyo ziinkampani zaseBritane ngokwazo. Kodwa xa iqela le-asethi lijongelwa phantsi, uyazi ukuba kuya kuba bubulumko ukujonga. Ke masibone ukuba kutheni ithuba liziveza kweyona marike inexabiso eliphantsi emhlabeni.

Kutheni kungekho mntu ufuna izabelo zaseBritani?

I-UK ibanjwe kwisiphango sokukhula okungapheliyo kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso okungapheliyo. IBhanki yaseNgilani (i-BoE) iye yanyusa izinga lenzala, ithatha ukuba ifikelele kwiindawo eziphakamileyo ze-dizzying, ukuzama ukupholisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, afikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu kwiminyaka eyi-40 ekupheleni kwe-2022. Kwaye loo mazinga aphezulu aye abeka. uxinzelelo olumandla ekukhuleni kweshishini kunye neengeniso.

Kwaye oko kuqoqosho nje. Ukuba sijonga izalathisi eziphambili zesitokhwe sase-UK siya kufumana abavelisi beempahla (ezifana neShell, BP kunye neRio Tinto), isitokhwe esikhuselayo sabathengi (njenge-Unilever, Diageo kunye neBritish American Tobacco), iibhanki (ezifana ne-HSBC) kunye neenkampani zamayeza. (ezifana ne-AstraZeneca kunye ne-GSK), kunye nezitokhwe ezimbalwa kakhulu zobuchwepheshe kunye nokukhula. Oku kuthambekela ekukhuseleni kunye nezitokhwe zexabiso kuye kwaba ngumngeni ngexesha apho abatyali-mali baye batshintshela ekukhuleni kunye ne-cyclical stocks.

Izitokhwe zaseBritane zithembele kakhulu kumacandelo “oqoqosho oludala” njengamandla kunye nezezimali, izinto ezikhusela abathengi kunye nokhathalelo lwempilo, kwaye zibhityile kakhulu kubuchwephesha. Imithombo: Bloomberg.

Ke kutheni usondela kwizitokhwe zaseBritane?

Ukuba siza kutyala imali kwixesha elide, kufuneka sigxile kwinto eqhuba ezo mbuyekezo zimnandi zexesha elide: ixabiso lokuqala eliphantsi, izabelo ezinomtsalane, nokuphucula iziseko zenkampani (umzekelo, ukukhula kwengeniso ephezulu kunye nemida yenzuzo). Uqikelelo lwexesha elifutshane lwezabelo zaseBritane lunokubhida, kodwa ezi zinto zikhomba kwiintsuku ezingcono kwabo banomonde:

1. Uqingqo-maxabiso: Izabelo zaseBritane zezona zingabizi kakhulu kwimarike.

UMorgan Stanley uye wawacutha amanani kwaye wafumanisa ukuba izabelo zaseBritane zezona zinexabiso eliphantsi emhlabeni. Azizincinci kuphela xa zithelekiswa noogxa babo baseMelika ababiza kakhulu, kodwa kwakhona xa kuthelekiswa neYurophu (umgca oluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka) kunye nehlabathi jikelele (umgca oluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka), ezidweliswe kwizaphulelo ze-20% kunye ne-40%, ngokulandelanayo.

Izabelo zaseBrithani zithengisa nge-20% isaphulelo kwiimpahla zaseYurophu kunye ne-40% isaphulelo kwiimpahla zehlabathi. Umthombo: uMorgan Stanley.

Kwaye oku akubangelwa nje ngamakhonkco aqinileyo e-UK kuhlobo lwamacandelo akholisa ukuba namaxabiso aphantsi: nasemva kokulungelelaniswa kwala macandelo, izabelo zase-UK zisarhweba ngesaphulelo se-30% kwiintanga zabo zehlabathi. Okona kubaluleke ngakumbi, izabelo zaseBritane azibizi nje kuphela xa zithelekiswa neminye imimandla, kodwa zinxulumene nembali yazo, zenza ithuba lihende ngakumbi.

Nokuba kuthathelwe ingqalelo iyantlukwano yamacandelo, izabelo zaseBritane zikwisaphulelo se-30% koontanga babo behlabathi. Umthombo: uMorgan Stanley.

Ukuqinisekisa ukuba, i-asethi enexabiso eliphantsi ayisoloko ithengwa ngobuchule. Kodwa, ngokubanzi, ukufumana ii-asethi ezinexabiso eliphantsi kuya kusiphembelela ibhalansi kancinci, ngakumbi kwixesha elide. Abatyali-mali bahlala bebeka kubaluleke kakhulu kwixesha elidlulileyo elimfiliba kwaye basilele ukubona ikamva eliqaqambileyo. Ke ngoko, xa yonke into ibonakala imfiliba, iimvakalelo zidla ngokubeka amaxabiso angaphantsi kwexabiso lawo elifanelekileyo. Ukuba sigqiba ukuthenga phantsi, kunokwenzeka ukuba sixhamle kwizinto ezisisiseko ezingenamfiliba kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso aphezulu. Ngapha koko, uphando lubonise ukuba ukuxatyiswa yenye yezona zinto zibalulekileyo kwinzuzo yexesha elide.

2. Izahlulo: phakathi kwezona zivuno zihendayo ehlabathini.

Nokuba izabelo zase-UK azinyuki, ingeniso yazo ephezulu ye-4,3% (iphindwe kabini kwizabelo zase-US) ithetha ukuba siseza kwenza inzuzo enkulu. Isibini esi sinembuyekezo eyomeleleyo kwi-equity (ethelekiseka neenkampani zase-US) kunye nokuphindaphindwa koqingqo-maxabiso okunokwenzeka, kwaye izabelo zase-UK ngesiquphe zijongeka zincinci xa zithelekiswa nezinye ii-asethi ezinemveliso ephezulu njengemali kunye nezibambiso. Kwaye ke, izitokhwe zaseBrithani zisenokungabi yi-rocket ye-Nvidia abanye abatyali-mali abaphuphayo. Kodwa khumbula; Ngokufuthi lufudo, kungekhona umvundla, oluwela entanjeni kuqala.

Izabelo zaseBritani zinika isivuno esinejusi ye-4,3% kunye nembuyekezo ekhangayo kwi-equity. Idatha ithathwe eBloomberg.

3. Izinto ezingundoqo: igumbi lokuphucula.

Amaxabiso angoku sele ethathele ingqalelo imbonakalo yoqoqosho olukhulu olungazinzanga. Ke ngoko, naluphi na uphuculo kweli cala linokunyusa amaxabiso ezabelo njengoko abatyali-mali bephinda bavavanya amathuba abo. Izinto sele zijonge phezulu: idatha yokunyuka kwamaxabiso inikezele ngesimangaliso esimnandi kwiveki ephelileyo, kunye ne-UK epokothweni olona phuculo lukhulu ukuya kuqikelelo lwe-GDP ka-2023 ukuza kuthi ga ngoku kulo nyaka. Nakwixesha eliphakathi, umlinganiselo womngcipheko womvuzo ukhangeleka unomtsalane.

Kuwo wonke lo nyaka, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okwenyani e-United Kingdom kwehla ngokuthe ngcembe. Umthombo: Truflation.

Ngexesha elide, obunye bobuthathaka bangoku bemarike yase-UK bunokuba namandla. Singazibhaqa sikwinqanaba lokunyuka koqoqosho olukhulu, ngokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nezinga lenzala liphezulu kunamashumi eminyaka akutshanje. Ukongeza, oorhulumente banokulususa ugxininiso lwabo kwii-asethi zemali baye kuhlumo loqoqosho, besebenzisa i-fiscal stimulus ukuqhubela phambili inkqubela. Kwimeko enjalo, i-stock-rich-stocks, abavelisi bempahla kunye namacandelo "oqoqosho oludala" afana neebhanki kunye nabakhi bezindlu bangakwazi ukugqithisa ukukhula okuphezulu okuhamba phambili kwexesha elidlulileyo.


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