Isalathiso seBuffet

Isalathiso seBuffet silindele ukwehla kwiimarike

Emva kwentlekele ebethayo kwaye ukutshona kwe-GDP yawo onke amazweIzitokhwe zibonakala ngathi zithathe ulwalathiso oluphikisanayo. "Ukuvela" kwemali ziiBhanki zoMbindi kubonakala ngathi kukhuthaze ukubuyiselwa kweemarike zesitokhwe. Nangona kunjalo, kukho amazwi amaninzi aphakanyisiweyo esilumkiso malunga nokungaqhelekanga kunye nokungenangqondo kwezi mpendulo zintle. Ukuba akukhange kubenjalo, amanye amacandelo abonakala ngathi achache ngcono kunokuba bekulindelwe, kwaye amanye akakhange abuye kangako. Olu hlobo lokuchacha kukhokelele abanye abahlalutyi ukuba baqikelele ukuba ukubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo kuya kuba yimilo ye-K, hayi kwi-L, V, okanye indlela oonobumba oonobumba abahlukeneyo abacetyiswe ngayo ukuba bachaze indlela eza kuza ngayo. Ngohlobo lwe-K, kujongwe ukuba kuchazwe ubumbano oluza kubakho phakathi kwamacandelo, omnye wabaphumeleleyo licandelo lobuchwepheshe. Kodwa ngaba oku kuchacha kuyinyani?

Uninzi lwabantu abatyala imali, bobabini abahlalutyi bobuchwephesha kunye nabahlalutyi abasisiseko, bayaphoswa zizimilo ezithile zeqela elithile lesitokhwe. Oku kumalunga nokunye okunje nge-Zoom Video Communications, ukunyuka kwayo ukusukela ekuqaleni konyaka, ixabiso layo elingu- $ 68 lafikelela kwiintsuku ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo kwi-478 yeedola ngesabelo ngasinye, ukonyuka nje kwe-600%. Omnye umzekelo obalaseleyo nguTesla, isitokhwe sakhe esivela kwi- $ 84 ekuqaleni konyaka (ukwahlula kubandakanyiwe) ukurhweba ngaphezulu kwe- $ 500 kwiintsuku ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo, ukunyuka kwe-500%. Kuqhubekani? Ngaba banokuba ngabaphumeleleyo okanye ngaba bagqithisiwe? Ngaphandle kokuya kuhlalutyo lwezezimali lweenkampani ezinentsebenzo yentengiso yesitokhwe ebingaphezulu komndilili, sinokukhetha ukuba nombono othe kratya wehlabathi apho zikhona iimarike. Kule nto siza kusebenzisa «Isalathiso seBuffet», esiza kuthetha ngayo namhlanje.

Yintoni iBafet Index?

Ingcaciso malunga nesalathiso se-buffet

Ezona indices zibalulekileyo eMelika ziyaziwa kuluntu lonke lotyalo-mali. Phakathi kwabo sineNasdaq 100, ebandakanya i-100 yezona zinto zibalulekileyo kushishino lwetekhnoloji, i-Dow Jones Industrial Average 30, eyenza umlinganiso weenkampani ezingama-30 ezinkulu zikarhulumente, kunye ne-S & P 500, apho iyeyona omele uqoqosho lwaseMntla Melika kunye namaqela ezinye iinkampani ezinkulu ezingama-500. Nangona kunjalo, kukho ezinye ii-indices ezingaziwayo kangako, kodwa ezingabalulekanga kangako kuloo nto. Isalathiso apho ifomula yokukhupha isalathiso seBuffet ishiye isalathiso seWilshire 5000.

I-Wilshire 5000 sisalathiso apho zonke iinkampani ezibonakalayo zidweliswe khona, ngaphandle kwe-ADRs, iinkampani ezinqunyelwe kunye neenkampani ezincinci. Ingafunyanwa phantsi kweticker "W5000". IWilshire, ikwanokubuyiswa okuphawulekayo njengezifaniso zayo. Konke oku kwimeko apho ukuvalelwa, ukumiswa ezivenkileni, kunye noqoqosho ngenxa yokuphazanyiswa komjikelo "wendalo" wezoqoqosho uphazamisekile. Yonke le misitho iguqulelwe kumanqanaba abaluleke kakhulu kwaye angathathelwa ingqalelo kwi-GDP yoqoqosho olwahlukeneyo.

Ityala elisisodwa elisichaphazelayo kweli nqaku kwaye lisete iialam kukuba Isalathiso seBuffet, esenza umlinganiso wenani lilonke leWilshire 5000 ukuya kwi-GDP (Imveliso yasekhaya) eMelika ikumanqanaba aphezulu kakhulu. Ke, esi salathisi sisebenzile ukuza kuthi ga namhlanje njengoyena mntu uqikelela ezona ngozi zibalulekileyo zestokhwe. Umzekelo, ukubaluleka kwayo ekuthatheni kwi-dot-com bubble. Ukuyiqonda, makhe sibone ukuba ibalwa njani.

Ibalwa njani i-Index yeBuffet?

Ibalwa njani i-Index yeBuffet

Indlela ebalwa ngayo i-Index yeBuffet ilula kakhulu. Imalunga nokuthatha Ixabiso elipheleleyo lenzala yeWilshire 5000 kwaye lahlulahlulwe yi-GDP yase-U.S. Inani elivelileyo kukubonakaliswa kwepesenti kolwalamano, kwaye ukuyichaza njengepesenti, yindlela enikwe ngayo, iphindaphindwe nge-100.

Ukutolika ngokuchanekileyo iziphumo, kufuneka Qonda ukuba le pesenti isixelela ntoni. Ukuba nesikhokelo kunye / okanye ireferensi, obu budlelwane bulandelayo banele.

  • Ipesenti engaphantsi kwama-60-55%. Ngaba oko kuthetha ukuba iingxowa zitshiphu. Ipesenti esezantsi, kokukhona bexabisa kakhulu.
  • Ipesenti ejikeleze iipesenti ezingama-75. Ayibizi okanye ayibizi, ngumndilili wembali. Iimarike ziya kulungelelaniswa ngokufanelekileyo. Ukuba okusingqongileyo kulungile, izitokhwe zinokuba nohambo oluphezulu kule meko. Kwelinye icala, ukuba imeko-bume iya isiba nobutshaba ngakumbi, amaxabiso asezantsi aya kubakho.
  • Ipesenti enkulu kune-90-100%. Kukho abo bakhetha umgca we-90s, kwaye abanye bangama-100. Kodwa ingancitshiswa njani, kwezi meko iingxowa ziqala ukubiza. Ipesenti ephezulu, kokukhona bebaxa kakhulu.

Xa bekukho ukungqubana kwe-dot com, isitokhwe besiku-137% kwaye saya kwi-73% (umndilili wembali singathi) Kwintlekele yemali, izitokhwe zazingama-105% kwaye zehla zaya kwi-57% (Oko kukuthi, zazingaxabiswanga).

Emva koqikelelo… Siphi ngoku?

Zingaya phi iimarike zentengiso zehlabathi?

I-Wilshire 5000 ine-capitalisation yangoku eyi- $ 34 trillion. Kwiintsuku ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo wade wenza imali ngaphezulu kwe-36 trillion! Oku ngokwembono ye-GDP ye-USA okwangoku kungenxa yokuwa koqoqosho kwi-19 yezigidi zezigidi isinika ixabiso le-174% (34 trillion yahlulwe nge-19 trillion iphindaphindwe nge-5). Ngaba ukuThengiswa kweZitokhwe kungaphezulu kwexabiso? Impendulo kuqala kwaye ngaphandle kwamathandabuzo iya kuthi ewe. Akuzange ngaphambili, nkqu nakwi-bubble yedot-com kunye noqikelelo lwexabiso malunga ne-137%, bafikelele kwirekhodi le-174% yangoku. Kwenzeka ntoni kwaye sinokulindela ntoni?

Ngeliphandle, emva kweminyaka yamava otyalo-mali, ngamanye amaxesha kunzima ukuqikelela ukuba kuya kwenzeka ntoni, kodwa xa kusenzeka, besisoloko sinendawo yokujonga. Kunokwenzeka ukuba isalathiso seBuffet sisilumkisaNjengakumaxesha angaphambili, kwengozi yentengiso yemasheya yexesha elizayo. Nangona kunjalo, ukubonakala kwesizukulwana esitsha sabatyali mali kunye nabaqikeleli, okwangoku okwaziwa ngokuba yiRobinhood ngenxa yokuvela kweapps ezivumela utyalomali ngexabiso eliphantsi, ngandlela thile zibumba imeko yezemali yeemarike. Oku, kongezwe kukungena ngamandla kwemali kwiimarike nakwezoqoqosho ziiCentral Banks, kuphakamisa uloyiko lokuhla kwamandla emali, aya kuthi, xa edluliselwe kuqoqosho, anyuse amaxabiso, anciphise ubudlelwane phakathi kweGDP kunye nengeniso. .


Umxholo wenqaku uyabambelela kwimigaqo yethu imigaqo yokuziphatha yokuhlela. Ukuxela impazamo cofa apha.

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