Ngaba imarike yemasheya yase-US ingaqhubeka iye kwiindawo eziphakamileyo?

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Ngaba ii-equities zase-US zingaqhubeka ukubetha phezulu kwi-2020? Lo ngomnye wemibuzo uninzi lwabatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi bebebuza yona kunyaka omtsha. Iimpendulo ezivela kubahlalutyi abahlukeneyo bezemali azifani kwaye iimeko ezahlukeneyo ziyavela xa kuthelekiswa nemarike yokuqala yesitokhwe emhlabeni. Ngezizathu ezingqubanayo omnye nomnye ngaphandle kwabasebenzisi bemarike yemasheya abalindele ukungena kwintengiso yemali kwiinyanga ezizayo benempendulo ebonakalayo.

Abakho abahlalutyi abambalwa abalindele ukuba imakethi yesitokhwe yaseMelika uthinte isilingi okanye le meko isondele kakhulu. Ngelixa abanye benoluvo lokuba le yinto ebonakalayo ngokucacileyo eya kuhlala ubuncinci iminyaka embalwa. Ngayiphi na imeko, inye into elungiselelwe abatyali mali kwaye ngoku sele kulityelwe ukuba bangene kwizikhundla zolu rhwebo lubalulekileyo lwezezimali. Ukuphosa awona macandelo anyusa kakhulu kolu nyuko. Apho babenakho ukwenza imisebenzi enenzuzo ngenzuzo ephezulu kune-0%, into engakhange yenzeke iminyaka emininzi.

Enye into ekufuneka uyiqwalasele ngeli xesha umahluko ocacileyo Oko kubonisa ukulingana kwe-USA kunye nelizwekazi elidala. Kuba ngelixa eyokuqala iyasebenza kuwo onke amaxesha okusisigxina eYurophu ihamba phantsi kwendlela esecaleni yeenyanga ezininzi kwaye ethintela intshukumo ukuba yenziwe ukuze inzuzo enkulu ifumaneke. Kuya kufuneka uzilinganisele ekuhambeni kwemigangatho ephantsi kwaye ngenzuzo engalindelwanga yinxalenye elungileyo yabatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi.

I-US Stock Exchange: Unokuya phi?

Inyaniso ngeli xesha kukuba imarike yaseMelika ayifumani thintelo kukonyuka kwayo okumangalisayo. Kunye uxinzelelo lokuthenga eye yoyisa umthengisi ngobunzulu obunqabileyo ukubonwa kwiimarike ze-equity kwaye oko kukhokelele ekubeni kuvulwe izikhundla ezininzi kule minyaka idlulileyo. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku sele kuncinci kakhulu ukuxhathisa ngaphambili kwinto enokuba kukugqibela kokunyuka okuphezulu kwemarike yokuqala yezemali emhlabeni. Ngaphandle kwerhafu yakutshanje i-United States ebeke iBrazil, iArgentina neFrance kwaye ivelise ulungiso olomeleleyo kwizalathiso eziphambili zesitokhwe kwihlabathi liphela.

Kwelinye icala, kufanele ukuba kuqatshelwe ukuba nangaliphi na ixesha le ndlela inokuphela kwaye kule ndlela kuya kubakho ukuhoya kakhulu imiqondiso yokuqala enikezelwa ziimarike zezabelo. Kungenxa yokuba sinyanzelisa ukuba ukulungiswa kungaphunyezwa ngamandla amakhulu kwaye kunjalo ngaphezulu kunakwamanye amaxesha ngenxa yeempawu ezizodwa ezilinganayo kwii-US equities ezikhoyo ngalo mzuzu kanye. Kwaye kwenzeka ukuba yenye yezona zinto zixhaphakileyo kwihlabathi liphela. Apho abatyali-mali bekwazile ukwenza ukuba imali yabo abayityalileyo izuze inzuzo phantse nge-100%. Ngamanye amagama, ixesha elilunge kakhulu kwimidla yabucala yabasebenzisi beemarike zentengiso.

Kude kube kutshiwo uTrump

Enye yeengcinga ezithi ziphathwe kwiimarike zezemali zase-US kukuba imarike yemasheya iyakunyusa ubuncinci kude kubanjwe unyulo lobongameli kweli lizwe nalapho uDonald Trump eza kukhetha ixesha lakhe lesibini. Ngapha koko, yenye yezona zinto aziphumezileyo kwintloko ye-White House ukusukela oko wabiza kakhulu, imarike yestokhwe saseMelika ayikayeki ukunyuka kude kube ngoku. Ngokuqinisekileyo le yeyona mpumelelo yakho inkulu kubongameli kwaye awufuni ukwehla ngomzuzu wokugqibela kwimarike yemasheya ukwenzakalisa ukuphinda ukhethe. Ukusuka kule ndawo yokujonga, akukho bambalwa abahlalutyi bezemali abangoyikiyo ukwehla kwamaxabiso ezabelo kweli xesha lonyulo.

Umongameli waseMelika uzakwenza konke okusemandleni ukuze imeko yemarike yezabelo iqhubeke njengoko ibikhona ukuza kuthi ga ngoku. Ngaphandle kokugweba ukuba singabuyela kwiirekhodi eziphezulu kwii-indices zesitokhwe zaseMelika. Ewe kunjalo, ngekhe baphinde babothuse abatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi kwaye iya kuba lithuba lokugqibela lokuthatha izikhundla kwezi asethi zemali ukuze bakwazi ukwenza inzuzo yokonga kwaye bakwazi ukufumana izibonelelo ezinokuba yi-10% okanye i-20% kuxhomekeke kulonyuso olunokubakho ukusukela ngoku. Kwinto enokuqwalaselwa njengokuphela komjikelo oya phezulu ongakhange ube nelinye ixesha elilinganayo kwamanye amaxesha embali.

Iinjongo zango-2020

?Ngayiphi na imeko, enye yeenjongo zabatyali zimali abancinci nabaphakathi ngeli xesha kukuzama ukuqokelela inzuzo ngaphambi konyulo lukamongameli eMelika. Ke ngoko, imisebenzi kufuneka yenziwe ngokukhawuleza kwinxalenye yokuqala yalo nyaka, kuba kweyesibini, ukungazinzi kunokuba yinto eqhelekileyo kumaxabiso ezokhuseleko. Mhlawumbi akusekho mathuba okuvelisa ezi nzuzo kwimakethi yesitokhwe yaseMelika. Ukuba akunjalo, ngokuchaseneyo, sinokuhamba ngokucacileyo siye kwi-bearish kwithuba elifutshane kakhulu. Ke ngoko, lumka kakhulu ngezikhundla ezide ukusukela ngoku.

Ayothusi into yokuba umngcipheko ekusebenzeni uyanda ngenxa yamaxabiso afikelela kwinqanaba eliphezulu nangaphezulu. Ngale ndlela, ayinakulityalwa ukuba ukugula okuphezulu yenye yeentshaba eziphambili zeemarike zezemali. Ukuza kuthi ga kwinqanaba lokuba abatyali mali abathathe izikhundla kule marike yemali banokubanjiswa kukhuseleko. Oko kukuthi, kude kakhulu kumaxabiso okuthenga kwaye ngenxa yoko kukho iingxaki zokwenza intshukumo enenzuzo kwimarike yemasheya.

I-American okanye iYurophu yokuThengiswa kweStock

Ukusuka kule ndlela, kuyinto eqhelekileyo ukuba abatyali mali babe madolw 'anzima phakathi kotyalo mali kwizabelo zaseYurophu okanye, ngokuchaseneyo, ukuqhubeka kwelaseMelika. Kuyinyani ukuba eyokuqala isenokungabizi kakhulu ngalo mzuzu, kodwa iimeko zohlalutyo lobuchwephesha azilungelanga umdla wabasebenzisi. Nangona kwelinye icala, umngcipheko usezantsi njengoko ungakhange ukhulise ukonyuka okubukhali njengaseMelika. Ngokwalo mbono, akukho mathandabuzo okuba kungakho ukutshintshelwa kwizibambiso zezokhuseleko ngeli xesha nakwiinyanga ezizayo. Njengoko abatyali mali beqala ukwenza iinyanga ezimbalwa.?

Nangona kunjalo, awungekhe ulibale malunga nokukhetha kweemarike ezaziwa njengezenye kwaye inokuba zezona zinikezela ngeyona mbuyekezo intle. Hayi kuzo zonke iimarike, kodwa kuphela kwezona zixhaphakileyo ezikhoyo ngoku e-China nase-India. Nangona ulungiso lwamaxabiso alithandabuzeki ukuba luza kuba nzima ngakumbi ukusukela ngoku, kodwa banokusetyenziselwa ukuthenga izabelo ngexabiso elinokhuphiswano ngakumbi. Kodwa ekugqibeleni, amandla okuhlaziya ngokubanzi aya kufezekiswa, ubuncinci kwixesha elifutshane neliphakathi.

I-Andbank Spain inefuthe kulo mba apho “yamkelweyo ukuba iqaphele ukuba khawulezani Kungenxa yokwanda kokuphindaphindeka (imeko esezantsi kakhulu), kodwa nangona i-S & P inokuba ibiza kakhulu ngokunxulumene imaliKubonakala kucacile ukuba kutshiphu ngokunxulumene neebhondi; ezibonelela nge-IRR ye-1.75%, ngelixa i-equity ibonelela nge-IRR ye-5.26%, elinganiswa nge-inverse ye-PER.
Njengayo yonke into, ndiyathemba ukuba ndiwuphendule ngendlela eyonelisayo lo mbuzo ”. Ukukhetha ukuba iimarike zezemali e-US ziya kuqhubeka nokukhuphukela phezulu kunyaka olandelayo.

Ukusebenza okuncinci kwimarike yesizwe

Ngaphakathi kulo mxholo wamazwe aphesheya, kufanele kuqatshelwe ukuba ii-equity zaseSpain ziya kuthi ndlelantle kunyaka kunye nokwehla okuthile ekusebenzeni kwabo, ngokweedatha ebonelelwe yiBolsas y Mercados de España (BME). Apho kuboniswa khona ukuba intshukumo kwimarike yemasheya ifikelele kwisabelo sentengiso kwi Ukwenza ikhontrakthi kokhuseleko lwaseSpain lwe-77,09% ngoNovemba. Uluhlu olumndilili lwalungamanqaku e-4,88 kwinqanaba lokuqala lexabiso (i-17,7% ibhetele kunendawo yokurhweba elandelayo) kunye neendawo zesiseko ze-6,61, ubunzulu be-euro ezingama-25.000 kwincwadi yoku-odola (43,9, XNUMX% ngcono), ngokwe-LiquidMetrix ezimeleyo ingxelo.

Nokuba kunjalo, la manani aquka urhwebo olwenziwa kwiindawo zokurhweba, kokubini kwincwadi yoku-odola ebonakalayo (i-LIT), kubandakanya ifandesi, kunye norhwebo olungafihlisiyo (mnyama) ezenziwe encwadini. Ngelixa lesahlulo sayo, ukurhweba kwingeniso emiselweyo ngeli xesha kufikelele kwi-24.965 yezigidi ze-euro ngo-Novemba. Eli nani limela ukonyuka nge-0,9% xa kuthelekiswa nomthamo obhaliswe kwinyanga ephelileyo. Itotali eqokelelweyo ngonyaka ifikelele kwi-319.340 yezigidi ze-euro, oko kuthetha ukukhula kwe-67% ngokunxulumene neenyanga zokuqala ezilishumi elinanye ze-2018.


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