Okokugqibela, isalathiso esikhethiweyo sezabelo zaseSpain, i-Ibex 35, yehlise inkxaso yezobuchwephesha eyomeleleyo ebinayo kwiinyanga ezili-9.300, XNUMX. Kube luvavanyo lwamandla ekufuneka lithathelwe ingqalelo ngabatyali zimali abancinci nabaphakathi ukuze benze imisebenzi yabo kwintengiso yesitokhwe. Kuba xa eli nqanaba lexabiso lidlulile, unokuba nomendo ocacileyo kude kube kufutshane kakhulu kumanqaku ayi-10.000, njengoko kubonisiwe ngabahlalutyi abaninzi beemarike zezabelo.
Okwangoku kuya kufuneka ulumke xa kunokwenzeka ukuba ibe sisiqalo esingeyonyani esiya phezulu. Ngenxa yokuba kunokwenzeka ukuba i-rally encinci ye-bullish ayizukubakho ngenxa yokugqitha kwinqanaba elibalulekileyo ebelinamanqaku angama-9.300. Ke ngoko kuyakufuneka ukucoca ifayile ye ukukhululeka ngaphezulu xa kuvalwa amaxabiso kula manqanaba. Ke ewe, inokuphuhlisa isigaba esitsha esiza kuvumela abatyali zimali abancinci nabaphakathi ukuba bangene kwiimarike zezabelo ukwenza imisebenzi yabo kwintengiso yesitokhwe ibe yinzuzo.
Ngapha koko, yonke into ibonakala ibonisa ukuba i-bullish yangoku ayizukuba namandla nangayiphi na indlela, ayide iphele. Kodwa kuyo nayiphi na imeko, kuya kuba yimfuneko ukuba uthathe ithuba kuyo xa ujongene nolungiso lwamaxabiso olunokubakho kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka. Ixesha apho abahlalutyi beemarike zezemali bengenathemba, kwaye apho ukuma okunokubakho kwizabelo ze-US kunokuhamba ngokuchasene nomdla wotyalo-mali. Kodwa oku kuya kuba sele kuyinxalenye yesibini yonyaka.
Ibex 35: amacandelo apho kufuneka ubekhona
Isicwangciso-qhinga sokuqala ekufuneka sichaze ukusukela kula maxesha achanekileyo kukucacisa amacandelo apho kufuneka sibe khona ngalo mzuzu. Kungenxa yokuba kukho ubuntununtunu obuninzi kunabanye kwaye isimilo sabo ngokungathandabuzekiyo singangcono xa amanqaku angama-9.300 ebethelelwe phantsi. Ngophononongo olunokubakho olunokubakho Amanqanaba aphakathi kwe-5% ne-8%. Oko kukuthi, ayigqithisi kakhulu, kodwa inomdla ekusebenzeni kwexesha elifutshane. Oko kukuthi, emva kwayo yonke loo nto, elona xesha lifanelekileyo lolu hlobo lokusebenza kwiimarike zesizwe zokulingana.
Kwelinye icala, ayibalulekanga kangako into yokuba kuya kubakho ezinye awona macandelo abuthathaka ukwamkelwa kwemisebenzi yethu kwiimarike zezabelo. Kwaye kubo kanye apho sizakuhambisa khona ukuhamba kwethu kwezi nyanga zizayo ngenjongo yokunyusa inzuzo eyinkunzi eqhutywa kwimisebenzi yokuthenga ngexabiso lemarike. Ukuze ube nenqaku lenkxaso yokuphumeza esi sicwangciso sotyalo-mali, siza kuchaza ukuba ngawaphi amacandelo emarike yemasheya anokuwenza ngcono ukusukela ngoku ukuya phambili kwaye angathandeki.
Ulwakhiwo kwindawo ephezulu
Alithandabuzeki elokuba elinye lamacandelo elinokwenza okona kulungileyo kwii-equity zaseSpain lelo lidityanisiwe kulwakhiwo. Ngokukodwa, emva kokugqitha kwi-Ibex 35 inqanaba lama-9.300 amanqaku kunye nendlela ecacileyo eya phantse kumanqaku ayi-10.000. Ngaphakathi kweli candelo libalulekileyo lentengiso yesitokhwe, elinye lamaxabiso abonisa eyona nto ibalulekileyo ACS. Inkunzi yayo ebalekayo kwiimarike zeenkomo itsala ikakhulu ingqalelo yenxalenye elungileyo yabalamli bezezimali abacinga ukuba inokuziphatha ngcono kunabanye ukusukela ngoku.
Ngelixa ngokuchaseneyo, asinakugweba ukuba oku kunyuka ngokucacileyo kunokufikelela kwezinye izitokhwe kweli candelo zidweliswe kwisalathiso esikhethiweyo sezabelo zamazwe, i-Ibex 35. Umzekelo, kwiimeko ezithile zeFerrovial kwaye ngakumbi iAcciona ekwabonisa imeko enamandla ephezulu ejolise kuwo onke amaxesha okusisigxina. Ngaphandle kokunye ukuthathelwa ingqalelo kobuchwephesha bendalo kwaye mhlawumbi nakwindawo yokujonga izinto ezisisiseko. Ngayiphi na imeko, asisayi kubakho esinye isisombululo ngaphandle kokuba nenxalenye enkulu yeenkampani zokwakha ukwenza iphothifoliyo yethu elandelayo yotyalo-mali.
Ukuthandabuza okungapheliyo kweebhanki
Elinye lawona macandelo athathwe kakubi kwezi nyanga zidlulileyo ibingamaqela ezemali, athe abona ukwehla kwamaxabiso. Ngayiphi na imeko, elinye lamaqhosha okumisela ukuba imeko yakho iya kubakho njani ukusukela ngoku sisigqibo osenzayo kule veki KwiBhanki ePhambili yeYurophu (ECB). Ngengqiqo yokuba ingaqhubeka nokufaka ukuthengiswa kwemali kwiimarike zezemali. Kuba ukuba bekunje, abaxhamli abakhulu bebeya kuba ziibhanki ezidweliswe kwi-Ibex 35.
Le mpendulo inokuba nobundlobongela kakhulu uphononongo olukhulu kwiimarike zezabelo. Nangona kuqikelelwa ukuba ubude bayo abuyi kuba bude kakhulu, kuba ngokuchaseneyo kunokuba nzima kodwa kube mfutshane ngexesha. Ke ngoko, kuyakufuneka ukuba uyazi kakuhle yonke intshukumo evela kwibhanki ekhupha iYurophu kuba inokukhokelela kwimeko yokuba iinkampani ezincinci neziphakathi zilibazisekile emsebenzini wazo wokuvula izikhundla kukhuseleko lwezi mpawu. Oko kukuthi, iinyawo zitshintshile njengoko kusaziwa njalo kwimigangatho yorhwebo yeemarike zezemali kwaye zinokudala ngaphezulu kwesingxaki esinye ukusukela ngoku.
Abanye abaxhamli: ubuchwepheshe
Alithandabuzeki elokuba lelinye lamacandelo elinokuthi liphume phambili kule meko intsha inokubakho kwimarike yaseSpain. Nangona kunjalo, inengxaki enkulu Zimbalwa kakhulu izinto ezikhuselekileyo ezidweliswe kwimarike kazwelonke eqhubekayo. Ngokungafaniyo nezinye izikwere zamanye amazwe, apho bakhoyo kakhulu. Zombini ngenani kunye nomgangatho weenkampani zazo kwaye nokuba kunini na inokuba yinto enkulu emangalisayo kwikota yesibini yonyaka. Ngaphezulu kwamanye amacandelo akhokelayo kwimarike yemasheya kwaye inokunceda inzuzo ukuba ihlale ngokuqinisekileyo kwisitetimenti sengeniso sabatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi.
Ubunzima obuthile beenkampani zobuchwephesha abufanelanga yenza imisebenzi ibe yinzuzo, kodwa kuya kufuneka sizame sijongane nemeko entsha ethiwe thaca kwizabelo, kuzwelonke nangaphandle kwemida yethu. Ngayiphi na imeko, iya kuba lelinye lamacandelo emarike yemasheya ekuya kuthi kunikwe ingqwalaselo ekhethekileyo kwiintsuku ezizayo. Ngophononongo olubaluleke kakhulu olunokubakho nakweyiphi na imeko ngaphezulu kwamanye amacandelo ezabelo zamashishini ezingenanzala emisiweyo kuzwelonke. Ukuba licandelo elijikelezayo ngokungummangaliso kuba linxibelelene ngokusondeleyo nemijikelezo yezoqoqosho, kokubini ngengqondo nakwezinye.
Iinkampani zentsimbi malunga nokuthenga
Ewe, iinkampani zentsimbi ezinamandla azinakushiyeka kumbhobho kwaye zilungiselelwe njengelinye lamacandelo apho kunyanzelekile ukuba abe amanqanaba e-9.300 amanqaku egqityiwe. Ngaphandle kokungazinzi okukhulu, zizindululo ezinokuphuhliswa ukukhwela nkqo kakhulu kwiintsuku ezimbalwa kakhulu. Ngombulelo kwiseshoni enye yokurhweba ye-3% okanye i-5%. Nangona kukho umngcipheko omkhulu wokuba izilungiso zawo zikhulu ngokulinganayo. Akumangalisi ukuba babonise umahluko obanzi phakathi kwamaxabiso abo aphezulu kunye neyona isezantsi. Kucetyiswa kakhulu kwimisebenzi yorhwebo okanye ukuyihlawula kwangolo suku lunye.
Kwelinye icala, eli candelo lelinye labo banombulelo omkhulu kunabo bonke. Ngabameli bokufaneleka kwe Arcelor okanye iAcerinox inokuba yinto esisebenza ngayo kwezi ntsuku okanye kwezi veki. Kuxhomekeka ekubeni amaxabiso okuthenga kunye nokuthengisa ahlengahlengiswe kakuhle ngeyona njongo iphambili yokwandisa inzuzo kwimisebenzi eyenziwa kwizabelo. Ngaphezulu kokunye ukuthathelwa ingqalelo kwendalo ecwangcisiweyo eyenzelwe olunye uhlobo lweprofayile kubatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi.
Izinto zombane sele zinyukile kakhulu
Ngokuchasene noko, asinakulibala ukuba iinkampani ezikweli candelo libalulekileyo sele lixabisile kakhulu kwiinyanga ezidlulileyo. Ngombulelo ongaphezulu kwe-20% kwaye akubonakali ngathi bazakuxhamla kakhulu kule meko intsha iboniswe yimarike yestokhwe sikazwelonke. Kodwa endaweni yoko, ukuba bazinze kumaxabiso abo okanye okubi ngakumbi, ukuba babonakalise izilungiso zobunzulu obuthile ukusukela ngoku. Ukudinwa kwabo kuya kubonakala kule mihla kwaye kubonakala ngathi abanamandla ngokwaneleyo okuqhubeka nokukhula kwii-indices zabo.
Nangona kunjalo, banomtsalane omkhulu wokuba babonise eyona dividend ephezulu kwizabelo zeSpanish. Ngembuyekezo yokonga phakathi kwe-5% kunye ne-7%, ngentlawulo esisigxina kunye neqinisekisiweyo kwiakhawunti minyaka le. Kwinto eyenziweyo njengenye yezona zikhuthazo zikhulu zokukhetha olu hlobo lokuthenga kwiimarike zezemali. Kwicandelo elibonakalisiweyo kuba lelinye lawona mazwe alawulwa kakhulu kwimarike yesitokhwe sikazwelonke kwaye ihlala idala ukungaqiniseki okuthile kubatyali zimali abancinci nabaphakathi.