Ejamelene nemeko yokudodobala koqoqosho lwamazwe ngamazwe, kuyinyani ukuba kuyamangalisa ukuba iimarike zezabelo azikhange ziyibone into enjalo. Ukuba akunjalo, ngokuchaseneyo, amaxesha amaninzi isalathiso hlala uptrend ngokuqinisekileyo etsala umdla wabatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi. Bayazibuza ukuba ingaba imakethi yesitokhwe iyasiphula ngokwenene isantya sokudodobala kwezoqoqosho esele sikho kwamanye amazwe eemoto kuqoqosho lwamanye amazwe.
Kule meko ngokubanzi, kufuneka kukhunjulwe ukuba kwiingxaki zentengiso yesitokhwe zihlala zivela ngokuwa kwexabiso. Okanye mhlawumbi kusenokwenzeka ukuba le meko inokuba yibhombu abatyali-mali abangayibonanga okwangoku kwaye iya kuba yinto enomdla kakhulu kwimidla yabo kwicandelo lotyalo-mali. Ukuya kuthi ga kwinqanaba lokuba ezona mpembelelo zazo ziphambili kukuba banako khotyokiswa kwizikhundla zabo kwimarike yemasheya ixesha elide. Oko kukuthi, kude kakhulu nexabiso lokuthenga.
Ngesi sizathu, kubaluleke kakhulu ukubonisa ukuba imeko yokudodobala koqoqosho ibonakalisiwe kuqingqo-maxabiso lwee-asethi eziyimali. Kodwa ngendlela encinci kakhulu kwaye ayixatyiswa ngabatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi. Ngale ndlela, isalathiso esikhethiweyo sezabelo zaseSpain, i-Ibex 35, sehle nge-3% kuphela kwiinyanga ezintandathu ezidlulileyo. Kwaye kumanqanaba afanayo kwezinye iindawo zamazwe aphesheya ngokubaluleka okukhethekileyo. Kwintoni enye yeempawu malunga nenyani yokuba kukho into eyenzekayo kuqoqosho lwamanye amazwe.
Ukudodobala kwezoqoqosho
Ngokubhekisele eSpain, kufanele kuqatshelwe ukuba IBhanki yaseSpain Uyaphawula ukuba uqoqosho lwaseSpain kunye nokusetyenziswa ngasese akusenako ukunganyangeki obekulindelwe kwiinyanga nje ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo. Ukuza kuthi ga kwiintsuku ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo uhlengahlengiso olomeleleyo lwezine kwishumi lwabhengezwa kuqikelelo lwayo, kwaye ilumkisile ukwehla okubonakalayo ekudalweni kwemisebenzi, ekhule ngesiqingatha ukusukela ngoMeyi. Endaweni yokunyuka kwe-2,4% kwi-GDP awayeyilindele kulo nyaka, ukuxhomekeka phambili kwi-2% kuphela.
Kwi-2020 kunye ne-2021, eyona nto iphambili ebhankini iqikelela a ukukhula kwe-1,7% kunye ne-1,6%, ngokulandelelana kulolongo ngalunye. Oko kukuthi, sele ingaphantsi kwe-2% kunye nokwehla okuthe, emva kwayo yonke loo nto, kunokuba nefuthe kwiimalike zezemali zokulingana. Nangona okwangoku kungaqokelelwanga kubunzulu bayo kwaye le yinyani yokuba abatyali zimali zentengiso kufuneka bathathele ingqalelo ukusukela ngoku. Apho elinye lamaqhosha likwinqanaba le-9.000 ye-euro yi-Ibex 35, zombini kwicala elinye okanye kwelinye.
Ukwanda kwisalathiso soloyiko
Olunye umqondiso osinikwa ziimarike zezemali kukuba VIX, okubizwa ngokuba yi-index index, kuye kwafumana ukukhula okuphawulekayo kwiinyanga ezidlulileyo. Esi sisilumkiso esicacileyo sokuba intshukumo ye-bearish inokuba isenziwa ibangelwa yingxaki eyomeleleyo yezoqoqosho. Ngelixa kwelinye icala, ukungazinzi kwi-VIX kuye kwanda ngokuhambelana, nokuxabiseka kwemihla ngemihla ngaphezulu kwe-2%, ipesenti ebingazange ibonwe ukusukela ngo-2013.
Kwelinye icala, isalathiso soloyiko sibonisa ukuba iimarike zokulingana zingawa kwiinyanga ezizayo. Kwimeko elindele a hayi imeko elungileyo kuba iimakethi zesitokhwe kwaye le nto kufuneka iphaphile ebusweni kunokwenzeka ntoni ukusukela ngoku. Akuyi kubakho khetho ngaphandle kokuqonda ukuvela kwe-VIX ukubonisa ukuba ingaba ngumzuzu wokungena kwintengiso yesitokhwe. Njengesixhobo sokugcina umdla wethu kwaye ngakumbi imali yethu eyenzelwe intengiso yemasheya.
Ubuthathaka kwii-cyclicals
Elinye inqaku lokuba iimarike zezabelo zisibonelela kwaye kule meko eyona datha ibaluleke kakhulu bubuthathaka bexabiso elichazwe njengokujikeleza. Ngamanye amagama, ezo zixhomekeke kumjikelo wezoqoqosho kwaye zisebenza ngcono kunezinye kumaxesha oqoqosho olwandisiweyo. Ngelixa ngokuchaseneyo, isimilo sayo esibi senzeka ngexesha lokudodobala koqoqosho. Iinkampani zentsimbi ngumzekelo ocacileyo wolu didi lwamaxabiso awodwa, njengoko kunjalo inxulunyaniswa nale mijikelo yezoqoqosho, Njengaleyo yokwenziwa kweemoto.
Ewe, ezi zitokhwe yehle kakhulu kwiinyanga ezidlulileyo kwaye inokuba ngomnye umqondiso malunga nokuba kwenzeka ntoni kuqoqosho lwamazwe aphesheya. Njengoko kwenzekile kumaxesha eempawu ezifanayo eziye zaphuhliswa kwamanye amashumi eminyaka. Ke ngoko, iya kuba yenye yedatha yokubeka iliso ukusukela ngoku ukuya phambili ukuba sifuna ukusebenza kwiimarike ze-equity ngoxolo olukhulu lwengqondo. Kungenxa yokuba ukuba iimarike zezemali zithatha imeko yokudodobala kwezoqoqosho, akukho mathandabuzo okuba amaxabiso ecandelo le-cyclical ayakuba zezona zichaphazeleka kwiimarike zesizwe nangaphandle kwemida yethu.
Ukwanda kokungazinzi
Esi sesinye sezilumkiso esinokuthi sibonise ukuba iimarike zezabelo ziya kuthatha indawo yokudodobala kwezoqoqosho. Kuba iya kuvelisa ukunyuka okukhulu kwiimarike zamasheya kwaye iya kubonakala kakhulu kubatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi kwiinyanga ezizayo. Apho okona kulungileyo esinokukwenza kukuhlengahlengisa izikhundla kwezi marike zezemali zinikwe umngcipheko wokuba imisebenzi yeemarike zentengiso inokuqhuba.
Oku kunyuka kwengeniso inokuba sesinye seempawu ezisixelela ukuba sijamelene nokudodobala kwezoqoqosho. Kodwa oko okwangoku akubandakanywanga kwixabiso lezabelo zeenkampani ezidweliswe kwiimarike ze-equity. Kwaye oko kubonakala kwinto yokuba utshintsho luya lunyuka, ngokunyuka kunye nokunyuka okungaphezulu kwe-3% okanye i-4%. Oko kukuthi, ukumema abatyali zimali abancinci nabaphakathi ukuba benze imisebenzi yorhwebo nakwiseshoni enye yokuthengisa. Njengoko kunokubonwa kwiiseshoni zokugqibela ezenzeka kwiimarike zesizwe nakwabo bangaphandle kwemida yethu.
Kumanqanaba osecaleni
Iziphumo zazo zonke ezi ziphumo kukuba ii-indices zesitokhwe azinangxaki ichaziweyo kwiinyanga ezidlulileyo. Ngamaxesha athile iyanyusa kwaye ngamanye amaxesha i-bearish, kodwa kuyo nayiphi na imeko kunzima kakhulu ukusebenza kwimarike yemasheya. Olu luphawu lwesazisi olunokufunyanwa kwiinyanga ezilishumi elinambini ezidlulileyo kwaye ngandlela thile luye lwalahla inani elininzi labatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi kwiimarike zezabelo. Oko kukuthi, asazi ukuba silindele ntoni kunye nomngcipheko ocacileyo wokuba nangaliphi na ixesha ukutsalwa okukhulu kunaniselwano lwezinto zamanye amazwe. Ukuza kuthi ga kwinqanaba apho sinokufumana khona utyalomali.
Ngelixa kwelinye icala, asinakulibala ukuba kubonakala ngathi eli lixesha lokulinda into ebalulekileyo enokuthi yenzeke ukusukela ngoku. Ukusuka kule ndawo yokujonga, kunokuthiwa ukudodobala kwezoqoqosho akenzi isaphulelo ngexabiso lezabelo zeenkampani ezithengisa esidlangalaleni. Into enokubangela uloyiko olukhulu ukungena kwiimarike ze-equity kwinxalenye enkulu yabatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi. Ukuya kwinqanaba lokuba imeko yotyalo-mali isenokungabi yinto elungileyo kule minyaka imbalwa izayo.
Akukho nto ikwimeko entle
Ngale meko ngokubanzi, ukuthengiswa kwemali lixabiso elongeziweyo elinokuzisa izibonelelo ezininzi kubathengisi. Ukuba akunjalo, ngokuchaseneyo, kuya kufuneka woyike okubi kwaye kungcono khetha ezinye iindlela zokhuselo okanye zokuzikhusela. Umzekelo, ezinye iimali zotyalo-mali ezidibanisa olu tyalo-mali nezinye iiasethi zemali. Njengefomyula yokuphucula ibhalansi yeakhawunti yethu yokonga. Ukuthintela iimeko ezingafunekiyo ezinokufika nangaliphi na ixesha kunye nokunye okuninzi ngedatha emitsha ebonakalayo kwezi ntsuku.
Ngelixa okokugqibela, kufanele ukuba kugxininiswe ukuba imigibe ekhulayo inokwenziwa ukuze abatyali zimali bawe phambi kwezandla ezomeleleyo kwiimarike zezemali. Le yeyona ngozi imbi kakhulu esinokuthi sibambeke kuyo kwaye ngokungathandabuzekiyo, inokusenza siphulukane nemali eninzi kwimisebenzi eyenziweyo. Kwaye oko kungasombululwa ngothotho lwamanyathelo othintelo esinokuthi siwenze ukuthintela iimeko ezingafunekiyo kuzo zonke iimbono. Oko kukuthi, emva kwayo yonke loo nto, into ekufuneka siyenzile ngamaxesha anzima kwiimarike zamasheya kwihlabathi liphela.