Nawuphi na amathandabuzo ekufuneka iimarike zezabelo zisombulule?

Oko bekusoloko kusithiwa olona tshaba luphambili lweemarike zezabelo kukungathandabuzeki okwenziwa kwi ezoqoqosho, ezopolitiko kunye nehlabathi lezoshishino. Kuyinyani ukuba amathandabuzo avelisa ukungazinzi okubonakalayo kwiimarike zezabelo. Ukuya kwinqanaba lokuba sesinye sezizathu eziphambili zokuba ii-indices zabo zesitokhwe ziwe kulungelelwaniso lwamaxabiso abo. Ngaphaya kokunye ukuqwalaselwa kobuchwephesha bendalo kwaye mhlawumbi nakwindawo yokujonga izinto ezisisiseko.

Ngayiphi na imeko, ekuphela kwento eyinyani ngeli xesha kusekho ukuthandabuza okuninzi okusombululwa, kokubini kwiimarike zezabelo nakwezangaphandle. Kwaye iya kuba ngabo abaya kugqiba ukuba ibhegi yenyuka okanye wehle kwiinyanga ezizayo isekwe kuninzi lwezi zinto zixabisekileyo. Ke ngoko, awuyi kuba nanto unokukhetha kuyo ukusukela ngoku kunokuba wazi ezi paramitha zibalulekileyo ukuba ufuna ukwenza imisebenzi yakho kwintengiso yesitokhwe ibe yinzuzo. Zombini malunga nokuvula kunye nokuvala izikhundla kukhuseleko lwabo.

Ngaphakathi kulo mxholo ngokubanzi, siza kukunika amanye amathandabuzo angekasonjululwa nanamhlanje. Zininzi kodwa kuyo nayiphi na imeko siza kudwelisa ezinye zezona zibaluleke kakhulu kwaye ziya kuba zezazo eziza kuchaphazela Ukuziphatha kweemarike zezabelo ukususela ngoku ukuya phambili. Ngengqiqo ethile okanye enye, njengoko uya kukwazi ukuqinisekisa ukususela ngoku. Ingakumbi ukuphuhlisa utyalo-mali lwakho kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka. Ixesha apho kuya kufuneka ujolise kwizicwangciso zakho kutyalo-mali ukuba awufuni nyani ukwenza iimpazamo ezibeka imali yakho ekhoyo emngciphekweni.

Amathandabuzo kwintengiso: ukwehla kwamandla emali

Idatha yezoqoqosho olukhulu ayinikezeli nakuphi na ukuthandabuza: sijamelene nexesha lokudodobala kwezoqoqosho kulungelelwaniso lwamanye amazwe. Ewe, ngoku kuhlala kubonakala ukuba le ntshukumo kuqoqosho lwamanye amazwe ingakhokelela kwi uqoqosho olutsha. Ngale ndlela, iingxelo zamva nje ezivela kwimibutho yamanye amazwe, ezinje ngezo zenziwe yiNgxowa-mali yeMali yeHlabathi (i-IMF). Apho kubonakala khona ukuba kunyaka ophelileyo, umsebenzi woqoqosho wawukhawulezisa phantse kuyo yonke imimandla yehlabathi kwaye ukukhula koqoqosho lwehlabathi kwaqikelelwa kwi-3,9% ngowama-2018 nowama-2019.

Kuninzi okutshintshileyo ukusukela ngoko: ukwanda kwempixano yorhwebo phakathi kwe-United States ne China, uxinzelelo lwezoqoqosho olukhulu eArgentina nase Turkey, ukuphazamiseka ishishini leemoto eJamani, Ukuqiniswa kwemigaqo-nkqubo yamatyala e-China, kunye nokuncipha kwemeko yezemali eyenzeke ngokuhambelana nokuqhelaniswa nomgaqo-nkqubo wezemali kwezonaqoqosho zinkulu ziye zanegalelo ekudodobaliseni okukhulu kolwandiso lwehlabathi, ngakumbi kwisemester yesibini ka-2018.

Uqikelelo lwekamva le-IMF

Njengoko kuqikelelwe kwiNgxowa-mali yeMali yeHlabathi (i-IMF), bathathela ingqalelo ukuba ubuthathaka buza kuqhubeka ngo-2019, kwingxelo yabo yoqoqosho lwehlabathi (Ingxelo ye-WEO, ngesigama sayo esiNgesini) isivumelwano sokukhula siqikelelwa kwi-2019 nge-70% Uqoqosho lwehlabathi. Ukukhula kwehlabathi, okuchukumise ubuninzi beepesenti ezi-4 ngo-2017, kwehla kwaba yi-3,6% ngo-2018 kwaye kuya kuqhubeka nokuhamba nge-3,3% ngo-2019. Kwelinye icala, bagxininisa ukuba imeko imbi kakhulu kunokuba bebekulindele kwaye bakhuthaza oorhulumente kwihlabathi liphela ukuba bazise izilumkiso.

Kwelinye icala, kwingxelo yeNgxowa-mali yeMali yeHlabathi, "amathemba ajongene namazwe amaninzi anzima kakhulu, aphawulwa kukungaqiniseki kwexesha elifutshane, ngakumbi njengoko ukukhula kwamazinga oqoqosho oluphambili ziguqukele kwimbonakalo yexesha elide ”. Le nyani inokubonakaliswa kwiimarike ze-equity, ngokulungisa izikhundla zabo ngelixa le meko ihleli, engenathemba kwaphela kuqoqosho lwamanye amazwe.

Imfazwe phakathi kwe China ne-United States

Zonke iimarike zezemali zilindelwe kwinto enokwenzeka ngale nto. Ngexesha elifutshane, akukho mathandabuzo ukuba iyabonakala kwiimarike zamasheya kwihlabathi liphela. Ngaphandle kwethemba lokuba lo mbandela uza kulungiswa ngokuqinisekileyo ekugqibeleni. Eyona nto inokwenzeka kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka. Kodwa okwangoku iyaphazamisa kwiimarike zamasheya zamanye amazwe, nkqu ngokuwa kakhulu Kwezinye iiseshoni zokurhweba, kunye nokuhla kwexabiso okungaphezulu kwe-2%. Akumangalisi ukuba, ngokwezinye iingxelo zamazwe ngamazwe, ukukhula koqoqosho lwehlabathi kuya kuxhomekeka kuko. Ngefuthe lesigqibo kwiimarike zezabelo.

Ngelixa kwelinye icala, isenokuba yinyani etyholwa kwiinyanga ezimbalwa ezizayo ezinokuzisa ukungazinzi ngakumbi kwiimarike zokulingana kwihlabathi liphela. Naliphi na iindaba ngale nyaniso ibalulekileyo ziqwalaselwa ziiarhente ezahlukeneyo zezemali. Ukuya kwinqanaba lokuba inokubangela ukuwa okukhulu okanye ukunyuka kwintengiso yemasheya. Ngayiphi na imeko, into eyivelisayo ininzi ukungazinzi kwiimarike. Apho ukungazinzi yenye yezona zinto ziphambili zixhaphakileyo kuwo onke amanqanaba.

Ukulinganisa ukunyuka kwendawo ye-euro

Nangona kwezi nyanga zidlulileyo ingumcimbi olityelweyo ziimarike zezabelo, ikhona phaya. Ke ukuze abatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi bayazi ngemvelaphi yabo xa kufika ixesha lokwenza iphothifoliyo elandelayo yotyalo-mali. Ngokomgaqo, icwangciselwe ukuba inzala yiya ngaphezulu kunyaka olandelayo. Kodwa naluphi na utshintsho kwisicwangciso lungakhokelela kwiintshukumo ezinobundlobongela kwiimarike zezabelo. Kuya kufuneka silindele kakhulu malunga nezigqibo ezinokuthathwa yi-European Central Bank (ECB).

Ngale ndlela, akukho mathandabuzo ukuba kuya kubakho abalahlekileyo kunye nezibonelelo kukhuseleko olwenza ingeniso yesizwe eguqukayo. Ngokumalunga neyokuqala, iya kuba ziibhanki ukuba xa imeko yexabiso lemali enexabiso eliphantsi linomda ophakathi wokungenisa inzuzo. Ngelixa kwelinye icala, Abaxhamli beli nyathelo ziinkampani zombane. Akumangalisi ukuba kwiinyanga ezintandathu ezidlulileyo baxabise ngaphezulu kwe-30%. Ukuba lelona candelo lilungileyo lezabelo zaseSpain, kude kube ngoku. Ukongeza, ikwangabo basasaza esona sabelo silungileyo, kunye nembuyekezo engaphezulu kwe-6%.

Ukuphuma okucacileyo kweBrexit

Ukuphuma okuqinisekileyo kwe-Great Britain kumaziko oluntu kuthengiswa kancinci nangaphantsi kwimarike yemasheya ngenxa yokuba esi siganeko sele senzekile. Kuya kufuneka ukuba sikhathazeke, kodwa ngamandla weenyanga ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo. Apho kugqibe khona ukuvela kweengxowa kuzo zonke iindawo ezinokubonakala. Ukusukela ngoku ukuya phambili, ayizukuthatha isigqibo njengakuqala, nangona inokunika ngaphezulu koloyiko kwezinye zezona ndawo zichaphazelekayo. Njengokuba kunjalo kwizabelo zamazwe, USantander, uSabadell, uIberdrola kwaye malunga ne-airline IAG. Basenokufumana izilungiso ezinkulu kumaxabiso abo ukusukela ngoku.

Ukuphuma okuqinisekileyo kwe-Great Britain kunokuthatha ukuphumla kubatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi. Ngaphezulu kwayo nayiphi na into kuba baya kususa intandabuzo ngaphezulu kwaye le nto inokubakhokelela ekuphuhliseni isicwangciso-mali sabo ukuba nethemba ngakumbi kunangoku. Ubuncinci iya kuba yinto engasayi kudweliswa kwimarike yemasheya ukusukela ngaloo mhla wokuphuma kokugqibela kwi-Great Britain. Kulindeleke ukuba esi sigqibo singalibaziseki ixesha elide, ngethamsanqa ngenxalenye elungileyo yabatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi.

I-European locomotive iyacotha

Ukungazinzi kwezopolitiko nezoqoqosho kungafikelela kwelinye lawona mazwe anamandla kwi-European Union njengeJamani. Isiporho se unyulo lwakwangoko ibhabha ngaphezulu kwazo zonke iimarike zentengiso zaseYurophu kwaye oku akufani nokuthanda abatyali zimali abancinci nabaphakathi. Okokuba bayayibona indlela amathandabuzo amatsha abamba ngayo ukuba benze isigqibo ngala maxesha achanekileyo kwaye ngomhla othile unokuba noxinzelelo olunamandla lokuthengisa kwiimarike ze-equity. Ngaphandle kwezinye izinto zobuchwephesha eziya kuba ngumxholo wolunye uhlalutyo.

Kwelinye icala, asinakulibala impembelelo enkulu iJamani enayo kuphuhliso lweemarike zezemali kwilizwekazi laseYurophu. Apho lonke iphuzu ledatha ngengqondo yokuba kukho ukuhla kwezoqoqosho okufanele ukuthathelwa ingqalelo. Kwaye kunokuthatha ukuya kwiingxowa ukuya kumanqanaba asezantsi acatshulweyo ngalo mzuzu. Kunye nefuthe layo lengqondo kwinxalenye enkulu yabatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi. Ukuya kwinqanaba lokuba banokukhetha izikhundla ezifutshane endaweni yabathengi. Okanye nokuba bakwimeko yokufumana ikhontrakthi kuthotho lweemveliso zezemali ngokusekwe kwi-bearish yangoku yeemarike zesitokhwe. Ngayo yonke into equka ukusebenzisa esi sicwangciso kutyalo mali. Ngaphandle kwezinye izinto zobuchwephesha eziya kuba ngumxholo wolunye uhlalutyo.


Umxholo wenqaku uyabambelela kwimigaqo yethu imigaqo yokuziphatha yokuhlela. Ukuxela impazamo cofa apha.

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