Wakhe weva nge Umthetho kaOkun? Kwimeko apho ungazi, oku kusuka ngo-1982 kwaye umyili wale nto yayingu-Arthur Okun, isazi ngezoqoqosho saseMelika esibonise unxibelelwano olungenanto phakathi kwezinga lokukhula koqoqosho kunye nenqanaba lokungaphangeli.
Kodwa ngaba ikho enye into ekufuneka uyazi ngalo mthetho? Inyaniso kukuba iyakwenza oko, ke siyakukhuthaza ukuba uqhubeke ufunda kwaye ufumane umthetho ochaza izinto ezininzi ezinxulumene noqoqosho kunye nentswela-ngqesho okanye ukudala imisebenzi.
Uthini umthetho ka-Okun
Umthetho ka-Okun yingcamango eyachazwa ngoo-60 ngu-Arthur Okun owayengusomnotho. Oku kufumene ubudlelwane phakathi kwenqanaba lentswela-ngqesho kunye nemveliso yelizwe. Oku kwaphuma ipapashwe kwinqaku, "i-GNP enokubakho: Ukulinganiswa kwayo nokubaluleka kwayo."
Kuyo, u-Okun wathi, ukuba amanqanaba engqesho anokugcinwa, uqoqosho kufuneka lukhule phakathi kwe-2,6 kunye ne-3% ngonyaka. Ukuba ayiphumelelanga, loo nto yayiza kukonyusa intswela-ngqesho. Ukongeza, yafumanisa ukuba, ukuba ilizwe liyakwazi ukugcina iipesenti ezi-3 zokukhula kwezoqoqosho, intswela-ngqesho iya kuhlala izinzile, kodwa ukuyinciphisa, kuye kwafuneka ukuba kukhule iipesenti ezimbini zamanani okungaqeshwa okufunwayo ukunciphisa.
Into ongayaziyo kukuba lo "mthetho" awunakwenzeka ukuba ungqine. Uqoqosho lusebenzise idatha ukusukela ngo-1950 kwaye e-United States kuphela, kwaye waqulunqa lethiyori eyisebenzisa kuphela kwinqanaba lokungabikho kwemisebenzi phakathi kwe-3 kunye ne-7,5%. Ngaphandle koku, inyani kukuba imigaqo eyanikwa ngu-Arthur Okun ichanekile, yiyo loo nto isasetyenziswa kumazwe amaninzi.
Ngamanye amagama, umthetho ka-Okun usixelela ukuba ukuba uqoqosho lwelizwe luyakhula oko kuyakuthetha ukuba abasebenzi abaninzi kufuneka baphinde baqeshwe kuba kufuneka abasebenzi abaninzi. Oku kuyakuchaphazela ukungabikho kwemisebenzi, kunciphise. Kwaye ngokuchaseneyo; ukuba kukho ingxaki kuqoqosho, kuya kufuneka abasebenzi abambalwa, nto leyo eyonyusa intswela ngqesho.
Ithini ifomula yomthetho ka-Okun
La Ifomula yomthetho ka-Okun Ingaba yi:
Y / Y = k - c? U
Oku akunakwenzeka ukuba ukuqonde, kodwa ukuba sikuxelela ukuba lithetha ntoni ixabiso ngalinye, siya kufumana:
- Y: Umahluko wemveliso kuqoqosho. Ngamanye amagama, umahluko phakathi kwe-GDP yendalo kunye ne-GDP yokwenyani.
- Y: yeyona GDP yokwenyani.
- k: yipesenti yonyaka yokukhula kwemveliso.
- c: Into enxulumene notshintsho ekungabikho kwemisebenzi kunye nokwahluka kwimveliso.
- u: utshintsho kwinqanaba lokungabikho kwemisebenzi. Oko kukuthi, umahluko phakathi kwezinga lokwenyani lokungaphangeli kunye nenqanaba lendalo.
Uthini umthetho ka-Okun?
Ngaphandle kwento ebesiyixoxe ngaphambili, inyani kukuba umthetho ka-Okun sisixhobo esibaluleke kakhulu. Kwaye ivumela ukuqikelela imeko phakathi kwe-GDP yokwenyani kunye nentswela-ngqesho. Yintoni egqithisile, isetyenziselwa ukuvavanya ukuba indleko zokungaphangeli ziya kuba yintoni.
Ngoku, nangona sisithi kubaluleke kakhulu, inyani kukuba idatha efunyenweyo, xa ithelekiswa namanani okwenyani, ayichanekanga. Ngoba? Iingcali zibeka into ebizwa ngokuba yi "Okun coefficient."
Enye yeengxaki zalo mthetho kukuba xa amaxabiso exesha elide, iziphumo zigqwetha kwaye ziphosakele (yiyo loo nto ixesha elifutshane linokuba nenqanaba lokuchaneka okuphezulu).
Ngaba kulungile okanye kubi? Ngaba iyayifeza injongo yayo? Inyani yile ewe, kodwa ngama-nuances. Kuphela kuxa ujonga ukuhlalutya imeko yexesha elifutshane phakathi kwe-GDP yokwenyani kunye nentswela-ngqesho idatha eyamkelekileyo kwaye isetyenziswa ngabahlalutyi. Nangona kunjalo, ukuba lixesha elide, izinto ziyatshintsha.
Kutheni iziphatha ngendlela eyahlukileyo phakathi kwamazwe
Khawufane ucinge amazwe amabini anedatha efanayo. Kuqhelekile ukucinga ukuba, ukuba usebenzisa ifomula yomthetho ka-Okun, iziphumo ziya kufana. Kodwa uza kuthini ukuba akuxeleli?
Los Amazwe, ngaphandle kokuba eneenkcukacha ezifanayo kunye nezakhelo zamaziko, aneeyantlukwano. Kungenxa yoku kulandelayo:
Izibonelelo zokungaqeshwa
Khawufane ucinge ukuba xa ufuna umsebenzi, unikwa isibonelelo sokungaphangeli. Loo mali inokuba ncinane, kodwa isenokuba nkulu, ibangele abantu ukuba "baqhele" ukufumana imali bengenzi nto kwaye ekugqibeleni bayokujonga umsebenzi omncinci.
Ukuziphatha kakubi
Oku akubhekiseli kulo kuphela ixesha, kodwa kwixesha lokuziphatha kwezivumelwano. Xa kusenziwa izivumelwano ezininzi zethutyana, ukuqala nokuphela, inye kuphela into ebangelwe kukuba kukho amanani aphawulekayo xa kuziwa ekutshabalaliseni nasekuyileni.
Kwaye iya kuyichaphazela ifomula, ngakumbi kwi-GDP kunye nenqanaba lokungabikho kwemisebenzi.
Imithetho yezabasebenzi
Alithandabuzeki elokuba imithetho ikrele elintlangothi-mbini. Kwelinye icala, banceda ukukhusela abasebenzi. Kodwa zikwabangela ukuba inqanaba lentswela-ngqesho lingene kumjikelo wezoqoqosho. Iindleko zokudubula, ukuba ziphantsi, zenza iinkampani ziqeshe abantu abaninzi ngokungacacanga, kwimisebenzi ethile.
Imfuno yangaphandle
Ngokomthetho ka-Okun, Xa uqoqosho lwelizwe luxhomekeke kwicandelo langaphandle, luye lube neengxaki ezimbalwa kunentswela-ngqesho ukunciphisa.
Iingxaki kwimveliso kunye nokwahluka
Khawufane ucinge ukuba iinzame zijolise kumsebenzi omnye. Ngoku, endaweni enye, une 10. Kukuyiphi imeko apho uya kuziva ngathi uvelisa kakhulu? Eyona nto iqhelekileyo kukuba ukuba uzahlulela kwinto enye kuphela, ubalasele kuyo. Kodwa ukuba zininzi, izinto ziyatshintsha.
Kucacile ukuba Umthetho ka-Okun sisixhobo esilungileyo soqoqosho kunye noqoqosho olukhulu. Kodwa kufuneka ithathwe ngqolowa yetyuwa kuba iziphumo azisoloko ziyinyani, kokubini kwixesha elifutshane nelide. Yiyo loo nto ezinye iintlobo zezinto ezinokuba nefuthe kufuneka zithathelwe ingqalelo. Ubowazi lo mthetho ngaphambili? Ngaba kukho ukuthandabuza okungakhange kucace kuwe?