Omnye wemiceli mngeni abatyali zimali abancinci nabaphakathi banokwenza ngayo kwimarike yemasheya kunyaka olandelayo. Kuba azikho ezinye iindlela kwiimarike zezabelo. Kwimeko apho inkampani uJulius Baer ibona kwangaphambili ukuba ukudodobala koqoqosho kuya kufika ekupheleni kuka-2020 kodwa ngaphambili, ukusuka ngehlobo elizayo okanye ngoJanuwari wonyaka olandelayo, iingxowa Baza kuphakama nge-20%. Ukuya kwinqanaba lokuba elinye lamaqhosha okuvela ngaphandle kokuphazanyiswa kwiinzame zokutyala imali kukhetho lolawulo olusebenzayo.
Ngayiphi na imeko, yonke into ibonakala ibonisa ukuba ngunyaka obuthathaka kakhulu kubatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi. Sele ayizukuba lula ukwenza imbuyekezo engxoweni njengangaphambili. Ukuba akunjalo, ngokuchaseneyo, kuya kufuneka sinike ingqalelo ngakumbi kwinto eyenzekayo kwiimarike zezemali. Kungenxa yokuba kuyinyani ukuba amathuba oshishino lokwenyani aza kuziswa, ayisiyonyani ukuba imali eninzi ingenziwa ngokulula kunangaphambili. Lo ngomnye wemingcipheko abatyali-mali bavezwa kuwo njengangoku.
Esinye sezitshixo zokuqaqambisa apho iimarike zokulingana zisiya khona ngeli xesha yinto enokwenzeka ngothotho lwezibakala okanye iziganeko ezinokwenzeka ngeli xesha. Kwaye iya kuba yintoni eya kuthi ekugqibeleni igqibe ulwalathiso lwengxowa oluthatha kwelinye icala okanye kwelinye. Ngaphandle kolunye uthotho lokuqwalaselwa kobuchwephesha kwaye mhlawumbi nakwindawo yokujonga izinto ezisisiseko. Ngayiphi na imeko siza kukubonisa eyona ngozi iphambili kwimarike yemasheya kwiinyanga ezizayo.
Umngcipheko: ukunqongophala kolawulo kwixabiso lentengo
Ireyithi yonyaka ye-Index yamaXabiso abaThengi ngokubanzi (CPI) yi-0,4%, ishumi lesine isezantsi kunelo libhalisiweyo kwinyanga ephelileyo. Apho amaqela anefuthe elikhulu kwi ukuhla kweqondo lonyaka Zimi ngolu hlobo lulandelayo: ezothutho, ezibonisa umahluko wonyaka we-0,0%, phantse amanqaku amabini ngaphantsi kwenyanga ephelileyo. Oku kungenxa yokwehla kwamaxabiso ezinto zokubasa kunye nezokuthambisa kule nyanga, xa kuthelekiswa nokunyuka okubhalisiweyo ngoJuni 2018.
Enye yezona zinto zibalulekileyo zizindlu, ezathi ireyithi yazo yehla ngaphezulu kwenqaku elinye, yema kwi-1,5%, ngenxa ukuhla kwamaxabiso ombane kunye nezibaso ezingamanzi, ezonyuke ngo-2018. Ngokwenxalenye yayo, iqela elibonakala ligqibe ngempembelelo yalo entle kwizinga lonyaka yile: lokuzonwabisa kunye nenkcubeko, ebeka ireyithi yayo kwi -0,4%, ezisibhozo kwishumi ngaphezu kwango-Meyi, ikakhulu ngenxa yokunyuka kwamaxabiso ezipakethe zabakhenkethi, ngaphezulu kunango-2018. Ngelixa kwelinye icala, i-Index eHlanganisiweyo yamaXabiso abaThengi (i-HICP) ibeka ireyithi yayo yonyaka nge-0,6%, yiyo loo nto yehlise izishumi ezithathu ngokubhekisele kwinyanga ephelileyo. .
Ukunyuka kumaxabiso enzala
Enye into enokohlwaya ngokubonakalayo kwiimarike zokulingana kunokwenzeka ukunyuka kwamazinga enzala kwindawo ye-euro. Apho, ukusuka kwisebe lohlalutyo lweBhanki, kukhankanyiwe ukuba i-ECB iya kugcina inqanaba lesalathiso, okwangoku kwi-0,0% ingatshintshanga kude kube yi-2021 kwaye iyakulibazisa ukunyuka kwenqanaba ledipozithi elisebenza kwiibhanki ukusuka -0,40, 0,20% yangoku ukuya kuthi ga -2021% ngo-2020, ngokuchasene ne-10 yangaphambili. Kwelinye icala, kule meko, baqikelela ukuba i-IRR ye-Bund yaseJamani kwi-2019 A iya kuqhubeka ikufutshane nembali yayo kwi-0,30 (-0,10% / - 0,10%) ukutyibilika ngokuthe chu ukuya (-0,20% / + 2020 %) ngo-0,20 kunye (+ 0,40% / 2021%) ngo-XNUMX.
Ngelixa kwelinye icala, icandelo leenkonzo liguquka ngokwanelisayo, kodwa ke ishishini ubonakalisa iimpawu zobuthathaka. Ixabiso lentengo, kude ne-ECB ekujoliswe kuyo (~ 2,0%), ngaphandle kokufunyanwa komvuzo kunye nokunyuka konikezelo lwemali (M3). Elona zinga liphantsi litshintshayo lihleli iminyaka emibini (+ 1,0% / 1,4%) kwaye imbonakalo yexabiso lentengo yexesha elide ikwiirekhodi ezisezantsi (~ 1,2%). Ngayiphi na imeko, iya kuba yenye yezinto ekufuneka uyazi ukuba lixesha elifanelekileyo lokungena kwiimarike zezabelo.
Ukuziphatha kwioyile
Enye into ekufuneka ihlawulwe ngayo ngokukodwa kukuvela kwexabiso leoyile ekrwada. Kule meko, iBarclays yehlisa uqikelelo lwamaxabiso eoyile ye2020, kwaye ithi ilindele ukuba ukukhula kwemfuno esezantsi ngenxa yokuba buthathaka kunokuba bekulindelwe imeko yezoqoqosho olukhulu. Kuba ayizukuchaphazela kuphela ixabiso lecandelo leoyile, kodwa nazo zonke ezo zinto zenza eyona nto iphambili kwintengiselwano yesitokhwe yamanye amazwe. Ukuya kwinqanaba lokuba inokuba yenye yezona zinto zichazayo ngeli xesha.
"Nangona kunjalo, sikholelwa ekubeni inkxalabo yokugqithisa ngokweqile kugqithisile kwaye izinto ezikhoyo eMelika kunye nehlabathi liphela zihlala zilungile," utshilo abahlalutyi kule bhanki, bongeza ukuba "intengiso ayijongi ibango kwaye inyusa ukukhula kokunikezelwa kwamaxabiso akhoyo ngoku" . Ukukhula kokusebenzisa kuya kucotha ukuya ngaphezulu nje kwesigidi semigqomo ngosuku ngonyaka ngonyaka we-1, njengoko "ukhuseleko olukhulayo phakathi kokuncipha kwemizi-mveliso kwihlabathi liphela" inobunzima kwimfuno yeoyile.
China-USA ubudlelwane kwezorhwebo
Le opera yesepha ngokungathandabuzekiyo iya kuqhubeka kweli xesha litsha kwaye ke ngoko ichaze indlela eya kuthathwa ziimarike zezabelo, ngandlela ithile. Ukuya kwinqanaba lokuba inakho ukuvelisa ukungazinzi okuphezulu kulungelelwaniso lwamaxabiso, njengoko kwenzekile kulo nyaka. Kuyo nayiphi na imeko, kuyakufuneka siziqhelanise nokuhlala nale ngxaki yethutyana kuba le nto ibalulekileyo kubudlelwane bamazwe aphesheya inokuba sisizathu sokuwa kweebhanki kunye neenkampani zentsimbi kulo nyaka.
Nangona ngesizathu esifanayo, kunokubangela ukuba ibhalansi ngokubanzi kwiakhawunti yethu yezokhuseleko ikhule kakhulu. Ngayiphi na imeko, iya kuba yiparameter ekufuneka uyazi kakuhle kwaye rhoqo. Ngokusebenza ngokukhawuleza okungadingi amanqanaba aphezulu kakhulu okusisigxina. Kuba ekupheleni kosuku banokuvelisa isiphumo esingafunekiyo kwinxalenye yabatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi. Umahluko obanzi kakhulu phakathi kwamaxabiso aphezulu kunye neyona isezantsi. Umba onokuthi uthande ukurhweba okanye wenziwe nakwiseshoni enye yokuthengisa.
Ukukhula kwezoqoqosho
Iphaneli yeFuncas ibandakanye uqikelelo lwe-2020 okokuqala, unyaka apho uqoqosho lwaseSpain izakukhula i-1,9%, Uqikelelo lwalo nyaka luhlala kwi-2019%, kunye nepropati ezinzileyo yekota enereyithi ye-2,2% kwiikota ezine, engatshintshanga kwiPaneli yangaphambili. Kuyo yomibini iminyaka, umndilili wokukhula okulindelweyo ngeepaneli uyaqhubeka ukuba ngaphezulu kwengqikelelo yendawo ye-euro.
Imeko yentengiso yezindlu nomhlaba
Ngokubhekisele kwingeniso yelizwe eguqukayo, enye yezinto eziya kuthi zithathe isigqibo iya kuba yezo zinxulunyaniswa nentengiso yezindlu. Ngale ndlela, kufuneka kukhunjulwe ukuba inani lobambiso olwenziwe kwiindawo zokuhlala Ngu-29.032, u-0,1% ungaphantsi kuka-Epreli 2018. Inani eliphakathi li-124.655 ye-euro, ngokunyuka nge-0,7%. Inani eliphakathi lobambiso olubhaliswe kwirejista yepropathi ngo-Epreli (kwizenzo zikarhulumente ezenziwa ngaphambili) zii-euro ezingama-142.440, i-1,8% ngaphezulu kwenyanga enye ngo-2018, ngokwedatha yamva nje ebonelelwe liZiko leLizwe lezibalo (i-INE).
Ngelixa kwelinye icala, kwimali mboleko eyenziwe kwiipropathi ngo-Epreli, i-avareji yenqanaba lenzala ekuqaleni yi-2,51% (5,1% isezantsi kuno-Epreli 2018) kunye nexesha eliphakathi leminyaka engama-23. Iipesenti ezingama-58,7 zepesenti yemali mboleko ikwiqondo lenzala eyahlukileyo kunye ne-41,3% kwizinga elimiselweyo. Umyinge wenzala ekuqaleni yi-2,23% yemali-mboleko yexabiso eliguqukayo (6,4% isezantsi kuno-Epreli 2018) kunye ne-3,07% kwiirhafu ezibekiweyo (4,8% ngaphezulu ngaphantsi).
Inani elipheleleyo lemali mboleko eneenguqu kwiimeko zabo ezibhaliswe kwirejista yepropathi yi-4.814, 20,9% ngaphantsi ko-Epreli 2018. Ngokusekwe kuhlobo lotshintsho kwiimeko, izithuba ezingama-3.932 zaveliswa ngo-Epreli (okanye uhlengahlengiso oluveliswe ngumbutho ofanayo wezemali ), ngokuhla kwe-19,3% ngonyaka. Kwelinye icala, inani lezinto zokusebenza ezitshintsha iziko (i-subrogations to the tredit) lehle nge-27,8% kunye nenani lobambiso apho umnini wepropathi ebanjisiweyo (ukutshintshwa komntu onetyala) kwehle ngama-25,3%.
Ngokubhekisele kwingeniso yelizwe eguqukayo, enye yezinto eziya kuthi zithathe isigqibo iya kuba yezo zinxulunyaniswa nentengiso yezindlu. Ngale ndlela, kufuneka kukhunjulwe ukuba inani lobambiso olwenziwe kwiindawo zokuhlala Ngu-29.032, u-0,1% ungaphantsi kuka-Epreli 2018. Ixabiso eliphakathi li-124.655 ye-euro, ngokunyuka nge-0,7%. Inani eliphakathi lobambiso olubhalisiweyo kwiirejista zepropathi ngo-Epreli (kwizenzo zikarhulumente zangaphambili) zii-euro ezingama-142.440, i-1,8% ngaphezulu kunenyanga enye ngo-2018.