Imarike yemasheya ejonge kwimpikiswano phakathi kweMelika kunye ne China

Enye yezinto ezinokuthi zichaphazele ukuvela kweemarike zezabelo zamanye amazwe ngokungathandabuzekiyo yingxabano phakathi kweMelika ne China. Ukuya kwinqanaba lokuba yinto ebaluleke kakhulu kwi-indices zesitokhwe sehlabathi ukuya ezantsi okanye phezulu kwiseshoni enye yorhwebo. Akumangalisi ukuba esona sizathu siphambili sokungazinzi okuza kuchaphazela i-2020 yingxabano entsha e-United States ejongene ne-China, kwaye ngeli xesha kungenxa yokuzama kukarhulumente wase-Beijing ukumilisela imithetho ethintela inkululeko yabantu e-Hong. Kong.

Isiphumo sokuqala sale mpembelelo kukuba kwintengiso yamanye amazwe. Kwaye yintoni embangelekwimali enye, i-euro, igcina ngokucacileyo ithoni ye-bearish okwangoku, kwaye ingaqhubeka nakwelo cala kwiinyanga ezimbalwa ezizayo. Apho kufanele ukuba kuqatshelwe ukuba apha ngezantsi inqanaba eliya ezantsi liza kucaca ngakumbi kwaye ke ayizukuba yinto yexabiso yokwenza imisebenzi kwiimarike zezemali. Nokuba yeyiphi na imeko, yonke into ibonakala ngathi ibonisa ukuba le yinto enokuthi igcinwe ngokuqinisekileyo xa ingxabano phakathi kwe-United States ne China isebenza.

Lo mbandela akufuneki ulibaleke kubatyali zimali abancinci nabaphakathi ukuba banqwenela ukungachaphazeleka kukuhamba kwexabiso kwimali enye yaseYurophu. Ngokukodwa, ngenxa yokuguquguquka okuphezulu kweli xesha, elidityaniswa nokwandiswa kwe-coronavirus kwaye inokuba sisizathu sokukhathalela inani elikhulu labathengisi. Nangona kunokuba yinto enokumiswa nangaliphi na ixesha kulo nyaka kwaye kuxhomekeke kwiziphumo zothethathethwano kwimpikiswano phakathi kwe-United States ne China. Akukho ndlela inokuthi ibe lolunye utyalomali ekuthengiseni nasekuthengiseni izabelo kwimarike yemasheya. Ukuba akunjalo, ngokuchaseneyo, lukhetho ekufuneka luqwalaselwe ngaphandle kolu hlobo lokusebenza kwiimarike zezemali. Ngohlalutyo olwahluke ngokupheleleyo kuzo zombini iiasethi zemali.

Impikiswano phakathi kwe-US ne China: ioyile

Alithandabuzeki elokuba le asethi yezemali ekumgangatho ophezulu yenye yezo zichaphazeleka kwimeko yempikiswano phakathi kwe-United States ne China. Kule meko ithile ukusuka kwimfuno eyandayo evela eChina, Inqanaba lokungenisa elizweni labuyela kumanani ngaphambi kwengxaki yezempilo. Kule meko, ayinakulityalwa ukuba le nto ibalulekileyo ekrwada ifumene ulungiso olwehlayo kwezi veki zidlulileyo, nangona ngokuchaseneyo kugcinwa ithoni ethengiweyo enokubangela umdla kakhulu ukwenza ukuba imali ekhoyo ifumaneke. Into egcinelwe abatyali mali abanenqanaba eliphezulu lokufunda kule klasi yemisebenzi ekhethekileyo.

Ngelixa kwelinye, singekhe silibale ngeli xesha ukuba i-oyile ekrwada ihamba kwimeko eguqukayo enokwenza intshukumo kwintengiso yezemali kwaye nangaphezulu kunakwimakethi yengeniso eyahlukileyo. Ngaphandle kokugweba ngaphandle kwayo nayiphi na imeko ukuba ulungiso olutsha olunokubakho lunokunikwa ngaphambi kokuqala umjikelo ozinzileyo wokuya phezulu kule minyaka imbalwa izayo. Kwaye kuyo nayiphi na imeko, iya kuxhomekeka ngandlela ithile okanye indlela yokuxabana phakathi kwe-United States ne China. Ngaphaya kwezinye iimeko ezinento yokwenza nohlalutyo lobuchwephesha kwaye ke ezinokuthi zitshintshe iqhinga lotyalo-mali ngabatyali zimali abancinci nabaphakathi ukusukela ngoku.

Unyulo e-US ekwindla

Ukongeza, akunakulityalwa ukuba kwiinyanga zokugqibela zalo nyaka kuzakubanjwa unyulo lwase-US, apho uMongameli uDonald Trump asemngciphekweni wokonyulwa kwakhona kwaye le nto inokunciphisa ukungavisisani phakathi kwala mazwe mabini. Ukuza kuthi ga kwinqanaba lokuba idlala indima yesibini kwiimarike ze-equity, ngakumbi ezaseMntla Melika. Ngayiphi na imeko, kufuneka ibonwe kwangaphambili ukuba emva kokuphinda uqalise imisebenzi yobuchwephesha emva kwekoronavirus kusengqiqweni kakhulu ukuba imakethi yesitokhwe yase-US inotsalo olutsha olunokukhokelela kwimisebenzi enenzuzo kubo bonke abatyali mali. Ukusuka kule ndawo yokujonga, inokuba lithuba leshishini lokungena kwizikhundla kwezi marike zezemali zichaphazelekayo. Ngobukho bokwenyani bokusondela kumaxesha aphezulu anokuthi afezekiswe ekupheleni kukaFebruwari.

Ngelixa kwelinye icala, unyulo e-US ekwindla luyinkuthazo entsha kwiimarike zezabelo zamanye amazwe ukuba zikhuphuke ukusukela ngoku. Ngokukodwa emva kwelahleko enzima eyenzekileyo ngokusasazeka kwe-coronavirus kwihlabathi liphela. Ngokwehla kwexabiso okuye kwafikelela ngaphezulu kwe-40% kwamanye amazwe achaphazeleka kakhulu kwezi zehlo zezempilo zibaluleke ngokukodwa kuqoqosho lwamanye amazwe. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku ukuba imeko ephezulu eboniswe ziingxowa kwiinyanga ezimbini zokuqala zalo nyaka yaphulwe ubukhulu becala. Ubuncinci ngokubhekisele kwixesha eliphakathi kwaye ngakumbi ixesha elifutshane. Ngeentengiso ezininzi ngabatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi ngenxa yesidingo sokuthengiswa kwemali kwiakhawunti yabo yokonga ngala maxesha.

Ukusebenza okungcono kweenkampani zetekhnoloji

Enye into ekufuneka ithathelwe ingqalelo ukusukela ngalo mzuzu ukuya phambili yinto yokuba ii-indices zetekhnoloji zenze ngcono kunalezo zesiko ngeli xesha likhethekileyo sonke esikhe sabona. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku i-Nasdaq ikwazile ukuzibeka kwindawo entle phakathi kobhubhane ngokubhekisele kwindaleko yonyaka kwiimarike zezabelo. Kule meko ikhethekileyo, ngenzuzo yonyaka engaphezulu kwe-1%, ngelixa ii-indices zentengiso yesitokhwe esele ziye zehla zaya kwi-40% kwiimarike zamanye amazwe ezifanelekileyo. Kwelinye icala, kufuneka sigxininise into yokuba ukusebenza ngcono kweenkampani zetekhnoloji kungenxa yokuba ziinkampani ezilungelelaniswe ngcono kwiimfuno zeenkonzo zamazwe ngeli xesha likhethekileyo.

Enye into ekufuneka uyiqwalasele kweli candelo yile inento yokwenza nobunjani beenkampani kwaye zibe luncedo ngakumbi kuguquko lwe-coronavirus. Umzekelo, unxulunyaniswa neemveliso zamayeza, uhlalutyo lweklinikhi kunye nokuzonwabisa kunye noqeqesho. Kuzo zombini iimeko kunye nokuxabiseka kutshintshiselwano lwesitokhwe samanye amazwe ngaphezulu kwe-10% kwaye ibe lithuba elihle leshishini kwinxalenye elungileyo yabatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi.

I-Ballast yokuvela kweDow Jones

Ixesha elizayo le-Dow likhombe ukwehla okubukhali evulekileyo kwiiveki ezidlulileyo emva kokuba ulawulo lukaTrump luye lwaya kuthintela ukuthunyelwa kwee-semiconductors kwi-China esekwe kumnxeba omkhulu waseHuawei, obekumbindi wengxabano yezobugcisa ebilayo phakathi kweWashington neBeijing. NgoLwesine, i-Dow Jones ye-Industrial Average inyuke ngamanqaku angama-377, okanye i-1,6%, emva kokuwa ngaphezulu kwamanqaku angama-450 kwiseshoni edlulileyo.

Urhulumente uthe ngolwe-Sihlanu ukuba ukuthengisa kwe-Epreli kwehle nge-16,4% njengoko ukuvalwa kwe-coronavirus kuvala iivenkile kwihlabathi liphela. Akumangalisi ukuba ezoqoqosho zilindele ukwehla nge-12,3% emva kokuhla kwe-8,3% ngo-Matshi. Ukubonakalisa imeko erhabaxa yokuthengisa kwilizwe le-Covid-19, yenye yezinto ezidlala ngokuchasene nendima yokuthengisa kwiimarike zezabelo zase-US, ubuncinci ngokubhekisele kwixesha elifutshane.

I-Nike iya kunciphisa ukuthengisa kwayo kwi-2020

Kule nkalo, uNike walumkisa ukuba ukuvalwa kwevenkile enxulumene nobhubhane kwikota yangoku kuya konakalisa iziphumo zayo zentengiso kunye neevenkile. Umenzi wezihlangu zemidlalo kunye nezambatho uthe i-100% yeevenkile zayo e-Greater China zivule kwakhona kwaye ukuthengisa kwi-Intanethi kuyanceda ekunciphiseni ilahleko kwintengiso ekuvalweni kwevenkile. Ngelixa kwelinye icala, kubalulekile ukuba nefuthe kwinto yokuba iNew York Stock Exchange izakuvula iingcango zayo ikhumbula le nto yokuba inokuba nefuthe kuqoqosho kwihlabathi liphela, hayi e-US kuphela. Ngokukodwa, iNew York Stock Exchange yahamba ngokupheleleyo kwiinyanga ezimbini ezidlulileyo emva kokuba abantu ababini bevavanye ukungena kwe-coronavirus. Abenzi beemarike abatyunjiweyo, abongamela urhwebo lweenkampani ezingama-2.200 XNUMX ezidweliswe kwiNew York Stock Exchange, baya kuqhubeka nokusebenza kude.

Ioyile ikwaye yavela, kubonakala ngathi ingene kwisangqa esilungileyo, ngenxa yokwanda kwemfuno evela e-China, inqanaba lokungenisa elizweni labuyela kumanani ngaphambi kwengxaki yezempilo. Izinto ezingafakwanga izinto eluhlaza ziye zafumana ulungiso olungephi olusezantsi ngolwesiHlanu, kwaye igcina ithoni ethengiweyo kwiiyure zokuqala zeveki. Silindele olunye ulungiso olusezantsi ngaphambi kokuba siqale umjikelo ozinzileyo wokunyuka.

Inkqubo eqale ngo-2018

Ukusukela ngo-2018, i-United States ne China zanyanzelisa amanyathelo ahlukeneyo kuthintelo kurhwebo phakathi kwala mazwe mabini, nalapho ukonyuka kweerhafu kuyeyona nto ibalulekileyo. Ukunyuka kweerhafu yi-United States kuthengiso lwamaTshayina kwakhokelela kwimpendulo ekhawulezileyo evela e-China, ekonyuse neerhafu zayo kuthengiso lwaseMelika. Nangona ungquzulwano lwezorhwebo lubonakala lonyuka ekwindla lowama-2019 ngerhafu entsha eyandayo, ngasekupheleni kuka-2019 la mazwe mabini avumelana ngesivumelwano, kurhoxiswa ezinye zeerhafu ezibhengeziweyo kwaye babuyisela umva kunyuso lwamaxabiso angaphambili. Isivumelwano sikhokelele kwifowuni

IsiVumelwano seSigaba sokuQala satyikitywa ngeyoMqungu yowama-2020. Kolu xwebhu sihlalutya ezoqoqosho zongquzulwano kwezorhwebo, sixoxa ngemvelaphi yezoqoqosho yongquzulwano lwezorhwebo, sinika isishwankathelo semilinganiselo eyahlukeneyo eyamkelweyo nokuphonononga iziphumo, ukungena kwimpembelelo esele yenziwe kunye Impembelelo elindelweyo kwixesha elizayo, ukujonga ngokukodwa iziphumo ezinokubakho ngokungaqiniseki malunga nomgaqo-nkqubo wezorhwebo. Iziphumo zoqoqosho ziyavavanywa kokubini ngokujonga uncwadi ngokwenza uhlalutyo lwabo.

Ukuhlalutya, sivavanya indlela ohamba ngayo urhwebo phakathi kwe China kunye ne-US kule minyaka mibini idlulileyo kwaye sihlalutye iipatheni zokutshintsha. Uhlalutyo, iModeli yeNtengiso yeHlabathi yeWTO (GTM), amandla okuhlaziya anokuphindeka, isetyenziswa imodeli yokulinganisa ngokubanzi (CGE). Kukho ingxoxo ebanzi malunga neziphumo ezinokubakho zoxinzelelo kurhwebo kuqoqosho lwehlabathi ngenxa yokukhula kokungaqiniseki komgaqo-nkqubo wezorhwebo kunye nokubandakanya isikhokelo esitsha sobudlelwane.

Isivumelwano phakathi kwe-US ne China

Ukusukela oko kwaqala ukungqubana kwezorhwebo phakathi kwe-US ne China la mazwe mabini anyuse umrhumo omkhulu kwelinye ilizwe, ukusuka kwi-2,6% ukuya kwi-17,5% kuthengiso lwamaTshayina oluya e-US nase-6,2% ukuya kwi-16,4% kuthengiso oluvela e-United States ukuya e-China. China. Isivumelwano sesiGaba soku-1 phakathi kwe-US ne-China sehlise amaxabiso kurhwebo lwamaTshayina e-United States laya kwi-16%. Ukunciphisa umda kuxwebhu. Ijolise kukungavisisani kwezorhwebo phakathi kwe-US ne China.

Iirhafu zokungeniswa kweTshayina ziye zakhuthazwa ubuncinci ziimpikiswano ezine:

Ukungalingani kurhwebo phakathi kwamazwe amabini; yenza iirhafu zibuyele ngakumbi; ukufumana imisebenzi kwicandelo lezemveliso; ukulungisa imigaqo-nkqubo yamaTshayina ngeziphumo ezichithekileyo zokuchitheka njengokukhuselwa kwepropathi enomgangatho ophezulu wokuqonda, inkxaso-mali evela kwiinkampani zikarhulumente, kunye nokuhanjiswa kobuchwephesha. Isiseko soqoqosho seengxoxo ezintathu zokuqala ziya kuxoxwa nzulu kuxwebhu.

Ukuphunyezwa kweerhafu

Nangona ukurhweba okuhamba ukusuka e-China ukuya e-US kusonyuke ngo-2018 ngenxa yolwabiwo olulindelekileyo lwe-7%, ukuthunyelwa kwelinye ilizwe e-China e-United States kwehle kakhulu kwikota yokuqala ye-2019 ngokubhekisele kwiimveliso zerhafu, nge-13%. Ukuthumela kwelinye ilizwe ukusuka e-United States ukuya e-China kwehle nge-1% kwi-2018, ukukhawulezisa ukuncitshiswa okungaphezulu kwe-25% kwikota ezintathu zokuqala ze-2019.

Ngelixa ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe e-China e-United States kusonyuke ngo-2018 nge-7% ngenxa yokuhanjiswa okulindelweyo, kwehle kwikota yokuqala ka-2019 nge-13%. Uhlalutyo lukwabonisa ukuba bekukho ukuphambukiswa okukhulu kurhwebo malunga nokungenisa elizweni kwamanye amaqabane orhwebo. Amazwe amane aseMpuma Asiya (iJapan, uMzantsi Korea, iTaiwan, kunye neVietnam) athumela kumazwe angaphantsi e-China nangaphezulu e-US, ngakumbi kwicandelo lezixhobo zombane.

Oku kubonisa ukuba amaxabiso aseMpuma Asia ahlela ngokutsha ekuphenduleni kwimpikiswano yorhwebo. Uluvo olusuka kuncwadi olunamandla ukuza kuthi ga ngoku kungquzulwano lorhwebo kukuba kubekho utshintsho olupheleleyo ukusuka kwimirhumo ephezulu yokungenisa impahla kwiimpahla zaseTshayina ukungenisa amaxabiso kunye neerhafu ezifakiwe.

Intsilelo yorhwebo kuwo omabini la mazwe

I-United States yaqala ukunyusa amaxabiso kungeniswa e-China ngo-Matshi 2018 kwaye impendulo evela kurhulumente wase-China yalandelwa kungekudala emva koko. Ibonisa ixabiso lezorhwebo elichaphazeleka kumjikelo ngamnye wokunyuka kweerhafu, ngelixa kwelinye icala ibonisa ukuvela kweereyithi zerhafu yomndilili kungeniswa e-US evela e-China nase-China evela e-United States. Ukunyuswa komrhumo okuchaphazela uninzi lworhwebo olongezelelekileyo kwenziwa ngoSeptemba 24, 2018. I-US yaqokelela amaxabiso ongezelelweyo e-10% malunga ne-200.000 yezigidigidi zeedola zokungenisa eTshayina, ezonyuke zaya kwi-25% ngoMeyi 10, 2019.

Umyinge weerhafu ezibekwe yi-United States kuthengiso oluvela e-China lonyuke kakhulu ukusukela oko kwaqala ungquzulwano kwezorhwebo, ukusuka kwi-2,6% yexabiso lemirhumo ye-MFN ukuya kwi-17,5% yeerhafu nge-1 kaSeptemba 2019. Ekuqaleni, i-United States yabhengeza ukwanda okuthe kratya yomyinge wonyuso lweerhafu, oluya kuphakamisa umyinge weerhafu ukuya kuma-24,4% ngoDisemba 15. Nangona kunjalo, ngenxa yengxoxo kwimbambano yezorhwebo, olu nyuso aluzange lusetyenziswe.

Ngelixa kwelinye icala, ukwanda okulindelweyo yi-20,7% ngoDisemba 2019, khange iphunyezwe. Kwangelo xesha, i-China yehlisa irhafu ye-MFN yamanye amaqabane orhwebo, ahambelana nokuncitshiswa komrhumo ophakathi we-5%. Yiyo ke loo nto ukuba i-avareji zilinganisiwe kuphela lurhwebo oluchaphazeleka kukunyuka kweerhafu. Ngelixa lokugqibela, kufuneka kugxininiswe ukuba kungoku nje kukho mpikiswano ebanzi malunga nefuthe lokungazinzi kwezorhwebo kuqoqosho lwehlabathi ngenxa yokukhula kokungaqiniseki kwezopolitiko phakathi kwala mazwe mabini.


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