Isigqibo se-European Central Bank (ECB) sokulibazisa ukunyuka kwexabiso lenzala Kummandla we-euro unefuthe elahlukileyo ngokuxhomekeke kwicandelo ekuthethwa ngalo. Kodwa ngokubanzi ayizondaba zimnandi kubatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi ngenxa yobunzima obukhethekileyo becandelo lebhanki elinalo ngaphakathi kwesitokhwe sesizwe, i-Ibex 35. Akumangalisi ukuba iibhanki zilahlekelwe yimali eninzi okoko esi sigqibo senziwe imibutho yoluntu.
Eli linqanaba ekuya kufuneka ukuba ulivavanye ukusukela ngoku ukuya phambili ukwenza naluphi na uhlobo lwezicwangciso zotyalo-mali. Kungenxa yokuba yimeko ekugqibeleni eya kuhlala iinyanga ezimbalwa. Ubuncinci kude kube sekuqalekeni konyaka-mali olandelayo xa kuya kubakho utshintsho kwi umgaqo kumgaqo wemali yendawo eqhelekileyo yaseYurophu. Ayothusi into yokuba le nto izakubeka uxinzelelo kubathengisi kwezinye zezokhuseleko ezibhalwe kwiimarike zezabelo. Ke ngoko, awuzukukhetha ngaphandle kokuba ulumke ngakumbi xa usenza imisebenzi yokwenza ulondolozo lwakho lube nenzuzo.
Kule meko ngokubanzi, akufuneki ulibale ukuba la manyathelo enza into ebangela ukuba iimarike zezabelo zifike banokuthatha enye indlela okanye enye ukususela ngoku ukuya phambili. Nangona benoluvo lokuqala lokuba amaxabiso enzala asezantsi anceda iimarike zesitokhwe ukuba zikhuphuke kumaxabiso abo. Ngaphaya kokunye ukuqwalaselwa kobuchwephesha bobuchwephesha okanye nakwindawo yokujonga izinto ezisisiseko. Ngayiphi na imeko, kuyinyani ukuba kuya kufuneka uyazi ukuba uthathe izigqibo kwihlabathi elihlala linzima lotyalo-mali.
UDraghi akazukunyusa amaxabiso ngo-2019
Isigqibo sikamongameli we-European Central Bank (i-ECB), u-Mario Draghi, sokunganyusi amaxabiso enzala kwindawo ye-euro kulo nyaka sibe nokuhambelana okukhethekileyo kwiimarike zezabelo kwilizwekazi elidala. Ngale ndlela, esi sibhengezo sisemthethweni sikhokelele kwezona ntsuku zimbi zokufakwa kwiibhanki zaseSpain. Balahlekile phakathi kwe-7% kunye ne-3% yexabiso lentengiso, Oko kukuthi, ngaphezulu kwezigidi ezingama-5.000, emva kokubhengezwa kwendoda enamandla kwezemali zaseYurophu ukuba ayizukunyusa inzala, ubuncinci kulo nyaka. Umongameli we-ECB uzakufaka imali eninzi kuqoqosho lwaseYurophu ukusukela ngoSeptemba.
Ku ithoni ethembeke ngakumbi Kunesiqhelo, umgcini-bhanki wase-Italiya ucacisile ukuba iBhunga elilawulayo ligqibe kwelokuba "ngamxhelo-mnye" ukulibaziseka "ubuncinci kude kube sekupheleni kwe-2019" ukunyuka kokuqala kwinqanaba lenzala. Njengokuthethelelwa kwamanyathelo amatsha okhuthazo abhengeziweyo, uDraghi uvumile ukuba uqikelelo olutsha lwe-ECB lumele ukwehla "okukhulu" kulindelo lokukhula xa kuthelekiswa nolo lupapashiweyo ngoDisemba ophelileyo, evuma ukuba ukwehla okubonakalayo kwindawo ye-euro kwinxalenye yokugqibela ye-2018 kubonakala ngathi iyakwandiswa ukuya kwi-2019.
Ingozi kwiibhanki zaseSpain
Iziphumo zokuqala zala magama avela kwi-European Central Bank (i-ECB) ibingumlinganiso wazo zonke iibhanki ezikweli candelo, ngaphandle kokukhetha. Ngokwehla kwexabiso ukuya kuthi ga kwiipesenti ezisi-8 eBanca Sabadell kananjalo kubunzulu obukhulu kulo lonke olunye ukhuseleko kweli candelo libalulekileyo lomvuzo oguqukayo kuzwelonke. Ukuphelelwa lithemba kuye kwagqitywa kuzo zonke iibhanki kwaye kuzakubiza imali eninzi ukutshintsha imeko yabo kuzo zonke iinyanga eziseleyo zalo nyaka unzima. Kwelinye icala, asinakulibala ukuba ezi nkampani zidwelisiweyo zixhomekeke kunyuko lwamaxabiso ukuya phucula imida yakho yenzuzo. Emva kokuba oku kuye kwacotha kwikota yakutshanje ukuya kumanqanaba axhalabisa kakhulu abatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi.
Kule meko ngokubanzi, kufanele kuqatshelwe ukuba iibhanki zezona zibalulekileyo kwicandelo lemarike yemasheya kolu hlobo lwamanyathelo emali. Emva kwe- Impazamo yomhlalutyi wezemali Ukuba kwiinyanga ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo bebecinga ukuba ngeyoMnga ngo-2019 xa olu tshintsho kwindlela yamanqanaba enzala iyakwenzeka. Njengoko uninzi lwezoqoqosho lwe-45 olwenziwe uphando yiBloomberg lufunyenwe. Ngesi sizathu, isigqibo sika-Mongameli we-European Central Bank (i-ECB), u-Mario Draghi, wothuse wonke umntu.
Imeko embi yoqoqosho lwaseYurophu
Kodwa esi sigqibo sidlulela ngaphaya kweenjongo zemali, kuba sichaphazela ukwehla kwezoqoqosho kummandla we-euro. Ngale ndlela, bajonga kwi-ECB ukuba iingozi kuqoqosho lwendawo ye-euro ziye zavela ngendlela engeyiyo. Ayothusi into yokuba ingxelo zamva nje zika-Mongameli we-European Central Bank (i-ECB), u-Mario Draghi uye kwelicala ngokuqaqambisa oko idatha yamva nje ibuthathaka kunokuba bekulindelwe, eqinisekisa ukuba umngcipheko kumbono wommandla we-euro "utshintshele kwicala elingelilo."
Ezi ndaba azizondaba zimnandi kwiibhanki ezidweliswe kwiimarike ze-equity kwaye ke zonke izikhundla kwicandelo lezemali kufuneka zitshintshwe. Akumangalisi ukuba kuyakubakho ixesha lokuba nomdla kwezi xabiso xa zidweliswe ngamaxabiso asezantsi kunalawo akhoyo ngoku. Ngayo i ukubanakho kuya kuba phezulu kwixesha eliphakathi kwaye ngakumbi ixesha elide. Kodwa hayi kula maxesha achanekileyo kuba kuninzi ongaphulukana nako kunenzuzo. Kwaye baninzi abatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi abayiqondayo, abashiya izikhundla zabo kolu khuseleko xa bejongana noloyiko lokuqhubeka nokuncitshiswa kwamaxabiso abo kulo nyaka unzima wemarike yemasheya.
USantander uxhathise ngcono
Iqela lezemali lisigqibe ngempumelelo isicwangciso-qhinga seminyaka emithathu, lijolise ekunyanisekeni kwabathengi, eliye lavumela ukuba liqhubeke njengenye yeebhanki ezinengeniso nefanelekileyo phakathi kwabo bakhuphisana nabo, buyela kwikapitali ebonakalayo (RoTE) ye-11,7% kunye nomyinge wokusebenza kwe-47%. Kwelinye icala, uSantander waphinda wenza igalelo kwinkqubela phambili yabantu kunye neenkampani apha enyakeni kwaye wadibanisa abanye abathengi abazizigidi ezi-2,6. Ikhredithi kunye nezixhobo zonyuse i-4% kwii-euro rhoqo.
Kwenye i-odolo yezinto ngokubhekisele kwiziphumo zeshishini, kuyimfuneko ukugxininisa ukuba inani labathengi elisebenzisayo iinkonzo zedijithali inyuke nge-6,6 yezigidi, yaya kwi-32 yezigidi. Eli qela liqhubeke notshintsho lwayo lwedijithali ngokusungulwa kweenkonzo ezintsha nezingcono kubathengi, ezivumela ibhanki ukuba ibeke phakathi kwamaziko amathathu aphezulu ukoneliseka kwabathengi kwiimarike ezisixhenxe eziphambili. Ngelixa kwelinye icala, inzuzo yonyaka yebhanki eyongezelekileyo inyuke kwiimarike ezisibhozo kwezilishumi kwi-euro engapheliyo (ngaphandle kwempembelelo yezinga lotshintshiselwano).
Iinkampani zombane ngabaxhamli abakhulu
Ngelixa kwelinye icala, iinkampani ezikwicandelo lombane zezona zixhamlayo kakhulu kula manyathelo acingelwa yi-European Central Bank (ECB). Ngenxa yamatyala abo aphezulu kwaye bafumene ububele kubatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi ngokuthenga okungalindelekanga. Xa ujongene nokwenza umthambo ixabiso lokhuselo xa ujongene nokungazinzi kunye neemeko zokungazinzi kwiimarike zezabelo.
Iimpawu zeli candelo zibalulekileyo lixabisile phakathi kwe-2% ne-4%, ngaphakathi kwecandelo elalisele likwintsimi ye-bullish. Nokuba abanye babameli bayo kwimeko yokunyuka simahla, yeyona nto inokwenzeka kwiimpahla zezemali. Akumangalisi ukuba, bengasenawo amachiza afanelekileyo ngaphambili kwaye ke banokukhula ngakumbi kumaxabiso abo. Ukuba lolunye lwezinto onokuzikhusela kakuhle kwimidla yabatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi ngalo mzuzu kanye. Ngamaqondo enzala asezantsi kakhulu axhamla kwizicwangciso zeenkampani zombane ngenxa yeempawu zazo ezizodwa.
Ukurhweba kwimarike yemasheya
Kule meko ngokubanzi, kufanele ukuba kuqatshelwe ukuba imarike yemasheya yaseSpain kuthengiswa ngobulungisa I-32.319 yezigidi zeerandi kwinyanga ephelileyo yahlalutywa, oko kuthetha ukuba i-22% ingaphantsi kunoJanuwari kunye ne-30,6% isezantsi kunenani lenyanga efanayo ka-2018. Inani lothethathethwano lalingama-2,8 ezigidi, ama-21,8% asezantsi kunenyanga ephelileyo kunye ne-37% isezantsi Kunokubhaliswa kwisithuba esihlalutywe kunyaka ophelileyo.
Kwelinye icala, kwicandelo le iimvume kunye nezatifikethi Kwathethathethwana nge-24 yezigidi zeerandi, i-31,8% ingaphantsi kwenyanga ephelileyo kunye ne-47,4% ngaphantsi kwelo xesha linye lika-2018. Inani lothethathethwano limi kuma-5.826, emele i-7,5% ngaphantsi koJanuwari nama-36,4% asezantsi kunenyanga efanayo yangaphambili unyaka. Apho, ekugqibeleni, inani lemicimbi eyamkelweyo kurhwebo yafikelela kwi-1.186, oko kukuthi, akukho ngaphantsi kwe-108% ngaphezulu konyaka ophelileyo. Ukuba lolunye lwezinto onokuzikhusela kakuhle kwimidla yabatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi ngalo mzuzu kanye. Ngamaqondo enzala asezantsi kakhulu axhamla kwizicwangciso zeenkampani zombane ngenxa yeempawu zazo ezizodwa.