I-Fed iya kuba nerhuluneli entsha: iya kuyichaphazela njani intengiso yemasheya?

yellen

Uhambo olufutshane lwe UJanet Yellen ekhokelela eUnited States Federal Reserve (FED) ifikelele esiphelweni. Kwiiveki ezimbalwa igama elitsha eliza kukhokela umgaqo-mali wezemali e-United States liza kwaziwa. Into enokuba nefuthe elihle kwiimarike zezabelo kweli, kodwa nakwezinye iindawo zejografi zamanye amazwe, ezinjenge-EU. Ayothusi into yokuba inoxanduva lwezigqibo ezininzi ezigcina zichaphazela iimarike zemali. Ngesi sizathu, ayothusi into yokuba kwiintsuku ezimbalwa ezizayo iimarike zentengiso zibonisa uloyiko oluthile malunga nezigqibo ezinokuthi zithathwe kwiminyaka ezayo.

Kwelinye icala, uluvo lwakho malunga nokurhoxa kwesikhuthazi kwezoqoqosho esele siqale phantsi kwegunya lika-Yellen luya kufaneleka. Kungenxa yokuba nakuphi na ukuphambuka kwizicwangciso zokuthatha kunokubandakanya iintshukumo ezibukhali kakhulu kwiimarike ze-equity. Zombini malunga nenye indlela okanye enye. Kunye ifuthe ngqo kutyalo-mali ukuba ngeli xesha uvule kwiimarike ze-equity. Ngesi sizathu, ulindelo oluvelisiweyo ukuza kuthi ga ngoku luphezulu kakhulu phakathi kwabatyali mali abancinci nabaphakathi. Zeziphi iiresiphi eziza kusetyenziswa yirhuluneli entsha (okanye irhuluneli) yeFED.

Ngale ndlela, ngalo mzuzu akukho gama likhethekileyo livakala. Nangona amachibi abahlalutyi bezemali akhomba kubantu ababini abaneprofayile efanelekileyo yokudlala le ndima ibalulekileyo kuqoqosho lelinye lamagunya ehlabathi. Ngubani obonakala ethatha amandla ngakumbi kwiiyure zokugqibela Jerome Powell, oyena mgqatswa uphantsi. Omnye umgqatswa nguJohn Taylor, kwaye uthathelwa ingqalelo ziimarike njengomntu onochuku kwiindlela zabo. Kubonakala ngathi la ngamanani athi umongameli wase-United States, u-Donald Trump, acinge ukuqondisa umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali wolu hlanga kule minyaka imbalwa izayo.

I-EDF: ukunciphisa ukunciphisa

zondliwa

Ngayiphi na imeko, kubonakala ngathi ukuhamba kukaJanet Yellen entloko ye-Federal Reserve yase-United States sele kuhlanjululwe. Apho kwintlanganiso ka-Okthobha sele ibhengeziwe ukuba yayiqala ukunciphisa iphepha lomlinganiso weFed. Kakhulu ke ii-QEs ezilandelelanayo, esele imele ngaphezulu kwe-4,5 yezigidi zeedola. Ngoku umbuzo abazibuza wona abahlalutyi bezemali kwaye ukuba iqela elitsha lezoqoqosho liya kuqhubeka nesicwangciso esifanayo. Zonke izikhombisi zalatha ukuba kunjalo. Kodwa ezinye izimanga azikhutshelwa ngaphandle, eziya kuthi ekugqibeleni zibe zezo zinokutshintsha icala leengxowa kwiintsuku ezimbalwa ezizayo.

Ukuchongwa okutsha akuyi kulinda ixesha elide. Ukuya kuthi ga kwinqanaba lokuba uMongameli wase-United States, uDonald Trump, ukuqinisekisile oko Uyakwazisa ukubambela kwakhe kamva kule veki. Okanye ekuqaleni kwelandelayo. Ngale ndlela, kuya kuba kubaluleke kakhulu ukujonga ukuba iimarike ziyifumana njani irhuluneli entsha yeFED. Iya kuba ngumqondiso ocacileyo malunga nokuba izithonga zinokuya phi. Isenokuba sisikhuthazo sokuvula okanye sokuvala urhwebo kwimarike yemasheya, kuxhomekeke kwiinjongo zakho.

Ukunyuka kwenqanaba likaDisemba

Nokuba yeyiphi na indlela, inye into eqinisekileyo kwaye leyo yeyona nto iya kuthi ibonakale ngenyanga kaDisemba. Ayothusi into yokuba ngumhla okhethelwe i Federal Reserve yaseUnited States  anyuse amaxabiso okwesihlandlo sesithathu kulo nyaka. Ngeli xesha, ukuya kuthi ga kwi-1,25% kunye ne-1,50% yendawo. Okwangoku, ukusetyenziswa kwale milinganiselo yemali akubonakali ngathi kuneempembelelo ezigqithileyo kwiimarike zezabelo. Kodwa kuya kuba kubaluleke kakhulu ukuba nembono yerhuluneli entsha ye-Fed etafileni. Kungaba yintwasahlobo ukuze iingxowa zehlabathi liphela zijike zijonge ezantsi okanye ngokuchaseneyo zijongise phezulu. Kuya kufuneka ulindelwe ukuze ube nokuqikelela iintshukumo eziza kubangelwa ziimarike ukusukela ngoku.

Kwelinye icala, kuyakufuneka ukuba kubonwe ukuba ngeyoMnga, xa ukuqeshwa kwakhe kokugqibela kusondela, imeko yezoqoqosho iya kutshintsha, nangona ingabonakali ngathi inokwenzeka. Kungenxa yokuba naluphi na utshintsho olukhulu kwiiparameter eziphambili zoqoqosho lunokumela ukujika kwiimarike zezabelo. Nangona kungenjalo ngobukhulu kunye nokuqina oko abanye abahlalutyi bezemali belumkisa. Kungenxa yokuba olona luvo ngokubanzi phakathi kwabo kukuba yonke into iya kuqhubeka njengangaphambili. Kunye uhlengahlengiso oluncinci kwindlela ye-Federal Reserve evela eUnited States. Ngayiphi na imeko, kuya kufuneka ulindele ukuba iinjongo zakho kukuthenga nokuthengisa izabelo kwimarike yemasheya.

Ukugcinwa kwemigaqo-nkqubo yezemali

i-USA

Ngale ndlela, iqela eliphumayo licacile malunga neenjongo zabo zokwenyani. Ukuya kwinqanaba apho irhuluneli yangoku, uJanet Yellen sele etshilo ngamanye amaxesha, ukuba imeko yangoku yezoqoqosho izinciphisile ezi ntlobo zolinganiso kumanqanaba aqhelekileyo embali. Kubonakala ngathi abaphathi abatsha be-FED balandela le ndlela inye yesicwangciso. Ngoku kufuneka baqinisekise kuphela ezi njongo. Yinto leyo iimarike zezemali ezikhangele phambili kuyo. Kwaye ngokuqinisekileyo ngokwakho ukuze wazi ukuba zeziphi izigqibo ekufuneka uzenzile ukwenza ukonga kwakho kunenzuzo ukusukela ngoku.

Ukujongana nale meko, sele kukho amazwi afanelekileyo abonisa ukuba ngekhe kumangalise ukuba i-FED inyuse ukwanda kabini okanye kathathu ngo-2018. Into ngokoluvo lwakhe akufuneki ichaphazele indlela esitokhwe ngayo. Zombini e-United States nakwilizwekazi laseYurophu ukuya kwinqanaba elincinci. Ngeeparameter ezimbini eziza kubaluleka kakhulu ukuzithathela ingqalelo. Kwelinye icala, inyani yokuba Izinga lokungabikho kwemisebenzi lisezantsi nge-4,2%. Kwaye kwelinye icala, kuba uxinzelelo lomvuzo luyaqhubeka ukuvela. Izinto, kuzo zombini iimeko, ezinokuthi zixelele umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali weqela elitsha.

Linda ukwenza izigqibo

dinero

Esinye seziphumo zale nyaniso kumgaqo-nkqubo wezoqoqosho waseMelika yindlela ezinokuthi zikhule ngayo izabelo kulolu tshintsho lubalulekileyo kwiFED. Ukuze ngale ndlela, izigqibo zakho zibe ukhuseleko olukhulu ekusebenzeni. Ewe, kuqala kwakho konke kuya kufuneka ulinde olu tshintsho ukuba lwenzeke ngaphambi kokwenza nasiphi na isigqibo sokungena okanye ukuphuma nakweyiphi na intengiso yemali. Ayinamsebenzi ukuba ulinde nje iintsuku ezimbalwa kuba kuya kuba kufanelekile ukuhlehlisa esi sikhundla. Nokuba kuya kufuneka ulinde iintsuku ezimbalwa kwaye uphulukane nenxalenye yohambo lwe-bullish okanye lwe-bearish olukhulayo.

Ukuba yonke into ikhula ngesiqhelo kwaye yonke into iyaqhubeka njengakuqala, inokuba lithuba elihle lokuthatha isikhundla kwimarike yemasheya. Kungenxa yokuba awukwazi ukulibala ukuba ujongene nenye yezona ndawo zihlala unyaka nonyaka. Apho ukuhlaziywa kwamaxabiso kudlula kwi-10% ngokulula, njengoko kwenzekile kule minyaka idlulileyo. Ayothusi into yokuba zimbalwa iikota zeli xesha eziye zancipha ekunciphiseni kwexabiso lamaxabiso. Ngenxa yobunyani, sisimemo sokuba utyale imali yakho kwimarike yemasheya, kuxhomekeke kukhetho lwakho ngokubhekisele kwimimandla apho ufuna ukusebenza khona.

Iingcebiso zotyalo mali

Ngayiphi na imeko, kuya kuhlala kulungile ukuba usebenzise imigaqo yokuziphatha. Ke ngale ndlela, bonelela ngokhuseleko olukhulu kuyo yonke imisebenzi oza kuyiphuhlisa ukusukela ngoku. Ezi zezinye zezona zichaphazelekayo.

  • Sukuzama ukulungelelanisa imisebenziEndaweni yoko, kuya kufuneka ulinde ukuze ubone ukuba ngubani umphathi omtsha we-FED.
  • Iintshukumo kwimarike yemasheya akulindelwanga ukuba zibe ndlongondlongo kakhulu kwaye ke kuya kufuneka ube semngciphekweni ukuba ufuna ukwandisa ububanzi bemida yokusebenza.
  • Esi sigqibo siya kuba ne- iimpembelelo ezincinci kwiimarike zemali zelizwekazi elidala. Unokukhetha le ndawo ukuphepha intshukumo yokuqikelela kwiimarike.
  • Uluvo olugqwesileyo lokukhusela izikhundla zakho kwizabelo utyalo-mali olwahlukeneyo. Akufanele wabele yonke imali yakho oyigcinele ukhuseleko olunye okanye iasethi eyimali.
  • Umahluko phakathi kweemarike zaseMelika nezaseYurophu unokuchazwa ngakumbi ukusukela ngoku. Kodwa kwangaxeshanye inokukunika amathuba amakhulu kwicandelo lotyalo-mali.
  • Intengiso ye lwemali isenokuba yenye yezona zinto zinomdla ngoku. Kodwa ngoncedo oluya kudinga ulwazi olukhulu ngenkcubeko yezemali ukuvula izikhundla kwezinye zezi asethi zemali.
  • Ukuqeshwa kwerhuluneli entsha yeFederal Reserve yaseMelika kunokukuchaphazela imisebenzi yexesha elifutshane. Kwelinye icala, kwixesha eliphakathi nelide, yintoni eya kukuvumela ukuba ube banzi ngakumbi kwiindlela oza kuzithatha ziya kwahluka.
  • Sukuzama ukukhawulezisa imisebenzi Ngezi ntsuku okoko kwezi meko unokulahleka ngaphezulu kunokufumana. Gcina oku engqondweni ukuze ungathathi isimanga kwiintsuku ezimbalwa ezizayo. Apho ukhuseleko luya kuba lelinye lamahlakani akho aphambili.

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