Wakambonzwa here nezve Mutemo waOnn? Muchiitiko chausingazive, izvi zvakatangira muna 1982 uye mugadziri weiyi aive Arthur Okun, nyanzvi yezvehupfumi yeAmerica iyo yakaratidza kuwirirana kwakapindirana pakati pechikamu chekukura kwehupfumi pamwe nehuremu hwekushaya mabasa.
Asi pane zvimwe zvekuziva nezve mutemo uyu here? Ichokwadi ndechekuti zvinoita, saka tinokukurudzira kuti urambe uchiverenga uye uwane mutemo unotsanangura zvinhu zvakawanda zvine chekuita nehupfumi uye kushaya mabasa kana kugadzira mabasa.
Ndeupi Mutemo waOkun
Mutemo waOnn ipfungwa yakatsanangurwa muma60 neAmerican economist Arthur Okun. Izvi zvakawana hukama pakati pehuwandu hwekushaikwa kwemabasa uye kugadzirwa kwenyika. Izvi zvakabuda yakaburitswa muchinyorwa, iyo "Inogona Kubvira GNP: Kuyera Kwayo uye Kukosha."
Mariri, Okun akataura kuti, kana huwandu hwemabasa hwaizochengetedzwa, hupfumi hwaifanirwa kukura pakati pe2,6 ne3% pagore. Kana ikasawanikwa, izvo zvaizongo wedzera kushaikwa kwemabasa. Uye zvakare, yakasimbisa kuti, kana nyika ikakwanisa kuchengetedza iyo 3% yekukura kwehupfumi, kushaikwa kwemabasa kwaizoramba kwakadzikama, asi kuchideredza, zvaidikanwa kukura zvikamu zviviri muzana muzana kune yega yega yekushaikwa kwaida kudzikisira.
Chingave iwe chausingazive ndechekuti uyu "mutemo" haugone kuratidza. Nyanzvi yezvehupfumi yakashandisa dhata kubva muna1950 uye chete muUnited States, uye ndokugadzira iyi dzidziso vachizviisa chete kune urovha pakati pe3 ne7,5%. Kunyangwe izvi, chokwadi ndechekuti iyo mirawo yakapihwa Arthur Okun anga ari echokwadi, ndosaka ichiri kushandiswa munyika zhinji.
Mune mamwe mazwi, mutemo waOkun unotiudza kuti kana hupfumi hwenyika hukakura zvinoreva kuti vashandi vazhinji vanofanirwa kutorwa basa sezvo panodiwa vashandi vazhinji. Izvi zvinokanganisa kushomeka kwemabasa, kuchideredza. Uye pane zvinopesana; kana paine dambudziko muhupfumi, saka vashoma vashandi vachazodiwa, izvo zvinowedzera kushaikwa kwemabasa.
Ndeipi nzira yemutemo waOkun
La Mutemo waOnn ndeichi:
? Y / Y = k - c? U
Izvi hazvigoneke kuti tinzwisise, asi kana tikakuudza kuti kukosha kwese kunorevei, isu tichawana:
- Y: ndiko kusiyana mukugadzirwa muhupfumi. Mune mamwe mazwi, musiyano uripo pakati peGDP chaiyo neicho chaicho GDP.
- Y: ndiyo chaiyo GDP.
- k: chikamu chegore rega chekukura kwekugadzira.
- c: chinhu chinoratidzira shanduko mukushaiwa basa pamwe nemusiyano mukugadzirwa.
- u: shandura muhuwandu hwekushaikwa kwemabasa. Ndokunge, musiyano uripo pakati peiyo chaiyo yekushomeka chiyero neyakajairika mwero.
Mutemo waOkun ndewei?
Zvisinei nezvatakambokurukura kare, chokwadi ndechekuti mutemo waOkun chishandiso chakakosha kwazvo. Uye ndeyekuti inobvumidza kufungidzira mafambiro pakati chaiye GDP uye kushaikwa kwemabasa. Chii chimwe, inoshandiswa kuongorora kuti mari yekushaikwa kwemabasa ichave yakadii.
Zvino, kunyangwe tichiti yakakosha kwazvo, chokwadi ndechekuti iyo data yakawanikwa, ichienzaniswa nenhamba dziri munyika chaimo, haina kunaka. Sei? Nyanzvi dzinofungidzira izvi kune inonzi "Okun coefficient."
Rimwe rematambudziko nemutemo uyu nderekuti kana iwo mareti ari kwenguva refu, mhedzisiro inokanganiswa uye nekukanganisa (ndosaka iyo pfupi nguva inogona kuve neyakajeka chaiyo mwero).
Saka zvakanaka here kana zvakaipa? Inonyatso shandira chinangwa chayo here? Ichokwadi ndechekuti hongu, asi nema nuances. Chete kana uchitsvaga kuti uongorore mafupi-echinyakare mafambiro pakati chaiye GDP uye kushaikwa kwemabasa ndiyo data inogamuchirwa uye inoshandiswa nevaongorori. Nekudaro, kana iri yenguva refu, zvinhu zvinochinja.
Nei ichizvibata zvakasiyana pakati penyika
Fungidzira nyika mbiri dzine data rakafanana. Zvakajairika kufunga kuti, kana iwe ukashandisa fomu yemutemo yaOkun, mhedzisiro yacho ichave yakafanana. Asi ko kana tikakuudza kuti usadaro?
ari Nyika, kunyangwe iine data rakafanana uye masisitimu ehurongwa, ane misiyano. Uye imhaka yezvinotevera:
Kushaya basa
Fungidzira kuti kana iwe uchitsvaga basa, iwe unopihwa kusashanda kwemabasa. Mari iyoyo inogona kunge iri diki, asi inogona zvakare kuve yakakura, ichikonzera vanhu "kujairira" kugamuchira mari yekusaita chinhu uye pakupedzisira vanozotsvaga basa shoma.
Kutsika
Izvi hazvireve pachazvo kune iyo nguva, asi kune kwenguva pfupi yezvibvumirano. Kana zvibvumirano zvenguva pfupi zvikaitwa, kutanga nekuguma, chinhu chete chinokonzereswa ndechekuti zviripo zvinoshamisa manhamba kana zvasvika pakuparadza uye kugadzira.
Uye zvinokanganisa fomula, kunyanya muGDP uye nehuremu hwekushaiwa basa.
Mitemo yevashandi
Hapana mubvunzo kuti mitemo ipfumo rinocheka nekwose. Kune rimwe divi, ivo vanobatsira kuchengetedza vashandi. Asi ivo zvakare vanokonzeresa kuti huwandu hwevanoshaya basa vapinde mudanho rehupfumi. Iko kupfura mitengo, kana iri yakaderera, inoita kuti makambani abhadhare vanhu vazhinji zvisingaite, kune mamwe mabasa.
Kunze kwekuda
Zvinoenderana nemutemo waOkun, Kana hupfumi hwenyika huchienderana nebasa rekunze, inowanzo kuve nematambudziko mashoma pane kusashanda kuderera.
Matambudziko mukugadzirwa uye kusiyanisa
Fungidzira kuti kuedza kunoendeswa kune rimwe basa. Zvino, panzvimbo yeimwe, iwe une gumi. Ndeapi mamiriro ezvinhu auri kuzonzwa uchibudirira zvakanyanya? Chinhu chakasarudzika ndechekuti kana iwe ukangozvipira iwe kune chinhu chimwe chete, iwe unogadzira mazviri. Asi kana paine zvakawanda, zvinhu zvinochinja.
Zviripachena kuti iyo Mutemo waOnn chishandiso chakanaka chezvehupfumi uye macroeconomics. Asi inofanirwa kutorwa nendege yemunyu nekuti mhedzisiro yacho haisi yenguva dzose, zvese munguva pfupi uye kwenguva refu. Ndokusaka tichifanira kutora kufunga mamwe marudzi ezvinhu zvinogona kukanganisa. Waiziva mutemo uyu kare? Pane kusahadzika kupi izvo zvausina kujekerwa kwauri?