"Hupfumi, hupenzi" Uyu mutsara wakakurumbira naVaimbova Mutungamiriri weUS Bill Clinton unoratidza kukosha kukuru kwechirango ichi munzvimbo dzese dzehupenyu. Uye zvingave zvishoma sei, zvakare mu investment world uye hukama nemari. Kusvika padanho rekuti inogona kusimbiswa kuti mamiriro ehupfumi akanyanya kukosha kuona iyo shanduko yemasheya indices wepasi rose. Kuva chinokonzeresa kuti vatore maitiro kana imwe. Hazvishamise kuti inofanirwa kusimbiswa seimwe yemiparamende yekutora zvinzvimbo mumisika yequity.
Zvinhu zvakaita seyero rekushaikwa kwemabasa, inflation kana kukura kwehupfumi zvinotarisirwa nevasimari kuvhura kana kugadzirisa zvigaro mumisika yemari. Tamba yakaenzana kana pamwe yakakosha basa kupfuura iyo technical chinhu inounzwa nekuchengetedzeka, zvikamu kana masheya indekisi. Nechinhu chakakosha kwazvo chaunofanira kufunga nezvacho kubva zvino zvichienda mberi. Icho hachisi chimwe kunze kwemisika yemari inotarisira chokwadi chehupfumi. Mhedzisiro yaro pamusika wemasheya inoitika nekumwe kutarisira uye nekuda kwechikonzero ichi iri pamberi nguva dzese maererano nehupfumi hwechokwadi.
Kana iwe uchida kunyatsoita mhando iyi yekuita, iwe unenge usina imwe sarudzo kunze kwekuchengeta hupfumi mupfungwa chero nguva. Kwete chete munguva dzekuwedzera, asi zvakare mune recessives. Kusvika padanho rekuti ichagadzira shanduko kana kugadzirisa mune zvinoitika masheya indices. Uye zvingave zvishoma sei izvi zvinoitikawo muSpain. Iko hupfumi hunotora chinzvimbo chakakosha kwazvo mukuzvibata kwemisika yemari. Iwe unoda kuziva here kuti ndezvipi zvimwe zvezvikonzero zvakakosha kwazvo? Zvakanaka, nyatsoteerera kubva zvino zvichienda mberi nekuti unenge uri ruzivo rwakakosha iwe rwaunogona kuisa mukushandisa kuti ushandise zvakanyanya pfuma yako wega kana yemhuri.
Nei economics yakakosha
Kukosha kwaro kunotemerwa nenyaya yekuti ndeimwe yeinjini dzemisika yemari. Vanogona kukurudzira purofiti kana kurasikirwa akaiswa mune kuchengetedzeka uye indices yemusika wekutengesa. Kazhinji kudyidzana kwacho kuri kupfuura pachena uye kunogadzira akateedzana ezviratidzo zvine simba izvo zvinogona kukubatsira kuumba yako portfolio. Zvichienderana neprofile iwe yaunounza munguva idzodzo: ine hukasha, inochengetedza kana yepakati. Ehe, iwe haugone kukanganwa iyo data iyo iyo hupfumi inokupa iwe kana iwe uchida kukanganisa mune mashoma mashoma mashandiro.
Iri zano rakatosiyana neiro rinogadzirwa kubva kuhunyanzvi hwekuongorora kwehupfumi hwemari. Kufambisa iri basa, zvichave zvakakosha kuti iwe utsanangure ma parameter aunofanira kufunga nezvazvo zvakanyanya kubva ikozvino. Ivo vakakosha kwazvo kuti iwe uvazive kubvira iyo kushanduka kwemusika kusiyanisa mari. Pakati pazvo zvese, data rinotevera ratinoisa pachena iwe pazasi rinobuda.
Chekutanga data: inflation
Izvo hazvimboende zvisingacherechedzwe nekuti inoisa mwero wehupenyu hwenzanga yese. Mupfungwa iyi, panguva ino inflation muSpain yakawedzera mumwedzi yekupedzisira ye2017 kusvika ku1,8%. Inonyanya kugadzirwa nekuwedzera kwemitengo yezvikafu iri kupa kumanikidza kuri pachena pakukwira kwemitengo mudunhu rese. Kune rimwe divi, haukwanise kukanganwa kuti nhau dzakanakisa ndedzekuti inflation yepakati, iyo inosanganisa mitengo yemagetsi uye chikafu chisina kugadzirwa, yasara panguva ino padanho rinogamuchirika re1,2%.
Nekudaro, dhipatimendi rekuongorora kweBankinter rinoratidza kuti mitengo ichaenderera mukati ma2018 neConsumer Price Index (CPI) ye + 1,7%, zvichienzaniswa ne + 1,4% inofungidzirwa mukota yapfuura. Chero zvazvingaitika, ichave isina kwayaka dhata iyo isingakanganise mashandiro emisika yemari munzira ipi neipi. Kunze kwekunge pasina zvinoshamisira mumwedzi gumi nembiri inotevera. Mupfungwa iyi, zvinogona kutaurwa uine chokwadi chekuti inflation munyika medu iri pasi pesimba. Uye nekudaro kukanganisa kwaro pamusika wemasheya kushoma.
Kuwedzera kwehuwandu hwemabasa
Zviri pasina mubvunzo imwe yeiyo Achilles zvitsitsinho zvehupfumi hweSpanish. Kusvika pakuti iri kuremerwa neimwe nzira kudzoserwa kwehupfumi hwenyika. Kunyangwe iyo isina kuratidzwa kwakanyanya pane zvekuchengetedzwa izvo zvakanyorwa pamusika wenyika unoenderera. Kwete pasina, ichokwadi icho chinofungidzirwa nechakanaka chikamu chevamiriri vemari venyika yedu. Kunyangwe chero kuvandudzwa pane chiitiko chebasa kuchigamuchirwa zvakanaka nemisika yemari. Asi hongu, pasina kusimba kwaidikanwa. Sezvo musiyano mukuru nemamwe misika yekondinendi yekare.
Huye, iro danho rekushaikwa kwemabasa muSpain parizvino riri kudonha zvakanyanya, zvinoenderana neazvino dhata yakapihwa neHurumende Yezve Basa Kunyanya, uye zvine chekuita nemwedzi yekupedzisira gumi nemaviri, kushaikwa kwemabasa yakaderedzwa nevanhu 310.115 XNUMX. Chero zvazvingaitika, iyi ndeimwe yedhata iyo isina kuratidzwa mumakambani emunyika chero. Kwete zvakanaka kana zvisina kunaka. Asi pamwe nekusarerekera mhedzisiro kune vanoita mari.
Kukosha kweGDP
Asi kana paine paramende yekuti hunhu hwemisika yemari hunogona kusiyana, hapana chimwe kunze kweiyo Gross Domestic Chigadzirwa (GDP). Kunyanya sezvo chiri chiratidzo icho kuyera kukura kwenyika. Nemaonero enguva dzose anoteverwa zvakadzama nevamiririri vezvemari vakabatana nemisika iyi. Sezvo GDP inokwira, ichagadzira kuti misika yemasheya inogona kusimudzira maitiro aine makuru anovimbisa ebudiriro. Ehe, iwe haugone kukanganwa kana uchitenga uye uchitengesa masheya pamusika wemasheya.
Parizvino, iyo Gross Yemumba Chigadzirwa cheSpain inofamba mumitsara yakatetepa iyo inokwira pakati pe2,4% uye 3%. Nekudaro, iyo nhau dzakaipa kune vashoma uye vepakati-vamuviri varimi vanouya kubva mukudzokorodza kwakadzikira uko iyo Maitiro echiCatalan. Uye zvimwe zvakawanda mushure mekuumbwa nyowani kweParamende yeCatalonia mushure mekuitwa kwesarudzo musi wa 21 D. Izvi zvinogona kukuvadza shanduko yechikamu chikuru chemakambani akanyorwa pamusika wemasheya. Kunyanya avo vanobva kumabhengi uye emari chikamu. Usakanganwa kana iwe usiri kuda kukanganisa kubva ikozvino zvichienda mberi.
Risk premium
Imwe paramende zvakanyanya kuongorora kuti kana isiri nguva yekupinda mumisika yemari. Izvi zvinodaro nekuti vanoyera mari iyo nyika inogona kuwana kuburikidza nematanho epamutemo. Zvakanaka, panguva iyo yakakwira kusvika 115 hwaro hwenzvimbo nhanho semhedzisiro yemagariro uye ezvematongerwo enyika maitiro muCatalonia. Kune rimwe divi, goho rechisungo cheSpanish chemakore gumi rakawedzera kubva pane 1,723 yapfuura kusvika 1,784%, chikamu chepamusoro kubva munaKurume. Nepo pane izvo zvinopesana, iyo bund bund - iyo mutsauko neiyo yenyika inoratidza mucherechedzo wepanjodzi - yatora iyo yakapesana negwara. Kusvika pakudonha kubva kune yapfuura 0,463% kusvika 0,453%.
Uye zvakare, misika yenyika neepasi rose iri kutarisisa izvo zvinogona kuitika muUnited States. Nezve zano rayo pamitero yezvibereko uye kuti vangani varairidzi kuSpain vanozvitarisa. Nekukwira kunooneka mukati megore rino izvo zvichangotanga. Isuwo tichafanirwa kunyatsoteerera kune zvinogona kuitika munzvimbo ye euro. Kwete pasina, zvinangwa zvemutungamiriri wenyika BCE zivisa kufambira mberi kwekudzora kwekusimudzira kweiyo nharaunda hupfumi. Chero zvazvingaitika, iyi ndeimwe yedata inokosheswa zvikuru nevanoisa mari mudzimba. Pamusoro pedzimwe hunyanzvi uye kunyange dzakakosha nzira.
Kusabhadharwa kwechikwereti cheSpanish
Chekupedzisira, imwe data rakanyanya kuomarara iro rinonyanya kuomera varimari vadiki nepakati kuti vanzwisise Icho hachisi chimwe kunze kweinishuwarenzi yekusabhadharwa kwechikwereti cheSpanish ("Chikwereti default swaps"). Iyo imari yakauya sechishamiso chidiki, asi ine mashoma maitiro pamisika yemari. Kunyanya sezvo yakwira kusvika ku $ 121.590. Pazasi pehumwe hupfumi munzvimbo yedu yepedyo. Chero zvazvingaitika, haina kunyatso kuratidza kuumba mashandiro mumisika yemari yeSpain.
Izvo zvakaziviswa zvakare kuti European Union (EU) yakanyoresa mumwedzi yekupedzisira yegore, ichinyoresa mari inowedzera ye41.900 bhiriyoni euros mune ino account account. Zvakanaka, iyi ndeimwe yemiparamende inokosheswa nevamiriri vezvemari. Saka kuti nenzira iyi, iwe unogona kuitisa mashandiro ako nedziviriro huru. Kwete mukutenga chete, asiwo mukutengesa. Nemaonero akatendeseka kupfuura kare.