Izvo zvagara zvichitaurwa kuti muvengi mukuru wemisika yemisika kusahadzika kunogadzirwa mu economics, zvematongerwo enyika uye nezve bhizinesi renyika. Ichokwadi kuti kusahadzika kunounza kusagadzikana kwakakosha mumisika yemari. Kune iyo poindi yekuti ndicho chimwe chezvikonzero zvikuru zvekuti avo masheya indices awire mukugadziriswa kwemitengo yavo. Kunze kwekumwe kufunga kwehunyanzvi hunhu uye pamwe zvakare kubva pakuona kwezvakakosha.
Chero zvazvingaitika, chinhu chega chine chokwadi panguva ino, kuchine mibvunzo yakawanda inofanira kugadziriswa, zvese mumisika yenyika yequity uye kunze kwemiganhu yedu. Uye ndidzo dzichava idzo dzinozoona kuti bhegi enda kumusoro kana pasi mumwedzi inotevera zvichibva pane zvakawanda zvezvinhu izvi. Naizvozvo, kubva ikozvino zvichienda mberi, unenge usisina sarudzo kunze kwekunyatsoziva nezve izvi zvakakosha parameter kana iwe uchida kuita kuti mashandiro ako pamusika wemasheya abatsire. Ose ari maviri maererano nekuvhura nekuvhara nzvimbo munzvimbo dzekuchengetedzeka.
Mukati meichi chirevo chizere, tiri kuenda kukupa iwe kwekumwe kusahadzika uko kusati kwagadziriswa nhasi. Kune akawanda asi chero zvakadaro isu ticha nyora zvimwe zvakakosha uye zvinova izvo zvinokanganisa iyo maitiro emisika yemari kubva zvino zvichienda mberi. Mune imwe pfungwa kana imwe, sezvo iwe uchizokwanisa kuongorora kubva zvino zvichienda mberi. Kunyanya kukudziridza hupfumi hwako muhafu yepiri yegore. Nguva iyo iwe yaunofanirwa kuisa pfungwa dzako pamabhenefiti kana iwe usiri kuda kuita zvikanganiso zvinoisa yako inowanikwa capital panjodzi.
Kusava nechokwadi kwemusika: kuderera
Iyo macroeconomic dhata haina kupa chero kusahadzika: isu takatarisana nenguva yekudzikira kwehupfumi muhurongwa hwepasi rose. Zvakanaka, ikozvino zvinoramba zvichionekwa kana kufamba uku muhupfumi hwepasi rose kunogona kutungamira kune kudzika kutsva. Mupfungwa iyi, mishumo yazvino kubva kumasangano epasi rese, seiya yakaitwa neInternational Monetary Fund (IMF). Iko kuri pachena kuti gore rapfuura, zviitiko zvehupfumi zvaimhanyisa mumatunhu ese epasi uye kukura kwehupfumi hwenyika kwakafungidzirwa ku3,9% mu2018 na2019.
Zvakawanda zvachinja kubva ipapo: kuwedzera kukakavara kwekutengeserana pakati peUnited States neChina, macroeconomic makakatanwa muArgentina neTurkey, kukanganisa mu mota indasitiri kuGerman, kusimbiswa kwemitemo yechikwereti muChina, uye kuderedzwa kwemamiriro ezvemari akaitika zvakafanana neyakajairika mutemo wezvemari muupfumi hukuru hwemberi kwakakonzera kushomeka kukuru kwekuwedzera kwenyika, kunyanya mumesita yechipiri yegore ra2018.
Kufanotaura kweMangwana reIMF
Sekufungidzira kubva kuInternational Monetary Fund (IMF), vanofunga kuti kushaya simba kucharamba kuripo mu2019, mumushumo wavo pamusoro pehupfumi hwenyika (mushumo weWEO, nechidimbu chayo muChirungu) chibvumirano chekukura chinofungidzirwa mu2019 kwe70% ye upfumi nyika. Kukura kwepasirese, kwakabata huwandu hwakakura hwe4% muna2017, kwakadzikira kusvika pa3,6% muna2018 uye kwaizoenderera nemugwagwa iwoyo ne3,3% mu2019. Kune rimwe divi, ivo vanosimbisa kuti mamiriro ezvinhu akanyanya kupfuura zvavaitarisira uye vanokurudzira hurumende pasi rose kuti dziparidze yambiro.
Nepo kune rumwe rutivi, zvinotaurwa mumushumo weInternational Monetary Fund kuti "tarisiro dzakatarisana nenyika zhinji dzakaomarara, dzichizivikanwa nekusaziva kwenguva pfupi, kunyanya kukura kwehuwandu hwehupfumi hwemberi vanosangana pamwe zvine mwero kwenguva refu ” Chokwadi ichi chinogona kuratidzwa mumisika yemari, nekugadzirisa nzvimbo dzavo pachinenge chiitiko ichi chichigara, icho chisina kana tariro kune hupfumi hwenyika dzese.
Hondo pakati peChina neUnited States
Misika yese yemari yakamirira pane izvo zvinogona kuitika nechinhu ichi. Munguva pfupi, hapana mubvunzo kuti iri kuratidzwa mumisika yemasheya kutenderera pasirese. Kunyangwe paine tariro yekuti nyaya yacho ichagadziriswa zvakanaka pakupedzisira. Zvingangodaro muhafu yepiri yegore. Asi panguva ino iri kukanganisa kubva kune epasi rese misika yemasheya, kunyangwe nekudonha kwakanyanya mune dzimwe nguva dzekutengesa, nekudzikira kuri pamusoro pe2%. Hazvishamisi kuti, sekureva kweimwe mishumo yepasi rose, kukura kwehupfumi hwenyika kunoenderana nazvo. Nesimba rekusimudzira pamisika yemari.
Nepo kune rimwe divi, chingave chiri chokwadi chiri kupomedzerwa pamwedzi mishoma inotevera chinogona kuunza kusagadzikana kumisika yemari kutenderera pasirese. Chero nhau panhau iyi inokosheswa inoongororwa nevamiriri vemari vakasiyana. Kusvika pakuti inogona kukonzera kuwira kukuru kana kusimuka mumusika wemasheya. Chero zvazvingaitika, izvo zvairi kugadzira zvakawanda kusagadzikana mumisika. Iko kushomeka kuri kuve kweimwe yadzo makuru madhinominesheni pamatanho ese.
Reta kukwira munzvimbo yeyuro
Kunyangwe mumwedzi ichangopfuura iri iri nyaya yakambokanganikwa nemisika yemari, iripo ipapo. Saka kuti vashoma uye varipakati varimimari vanoziva nezvekushanduka kwayo kwekuti kana nguva yasvika yekuumba yavo inotevera yekudyara portfolio. Mukutaura, zvakarongedzwa kuti mitengo yemubereko enda kumusoro kwegore rinotevera. Asi chero shanduko muhurongwa inogona kutungamira kumafambiro ane chisimba mumisika yemari. Tichafanirwa kuve takatarisira zvikuru nezve sarudzo idzo dzinogona kutorwa neEuropean Central Bank (ECB).
Mupfungwa iyi, hapana mubvunzo kuti pachave nekurasikirwa kukuru uye mabhenefiti mumatunhu anoumba mari inoshanduka yenyika. Nezve izvo zvekare, angave ari mabhanga kuti aine mamiriro emutengo wemari yakachipa ane mashoma epakati ekumisikidza kuti aite purofiti yavo. Ndichiri kune rimwe divi, Vanobatsirwa nechiyero ichi makambani emagetsi. Hazvishamise kuti mumwedzi mitanhatu yekupedzisira ivo vakatenda pamusoro pe30%. Kuve iro rakanakisa chikamu cheSpanish equities, nekure. Pamusoro pezvo, ndeavo vanogovera chakanakisa chikamu, nemitero iri pamusoro pe6%.
Inotsanangurwa kubuda kubva kuBrexit
Kubuda kweGreat Britain kubva kumasangano enharaunda kuri kutengeswa kushoma uye zvishoma pamusika wemasheya nekuda kwekuti chiitiko ichi chakatoitika. Inofanira kuramba ichitinetsa, asi nehukuru hwemwedzi mishoma yadarika. Iko iko chaiko kwakasarudzika shanduko yemabhegi kubva kune ese anogona maonero maonero. Kubva ikozvino zvichienda mberi, hazvizove zvekutora danho sepakutanga, kunyangwe zvichizopa zvinopfuura kutyisa kune mamwe emasheya akanyanya kubatwa. Sezvo zvavari muzvikwata zvemunyika, Santander, Sabadell, Iberdrola uye nezve yendege IAG. Ivo vanogona vachiri kutambura kugadziridzwa kukuru mumitengo yavo kubva zvino zvichienda mberi.
Iyo chaiyo yekubuda kweGreat Britain inogona kufungidzira zororo kune vashoma nepakati varimi. Kupfuura chero chinhu nekuti ivo vanobvisa kusahadzika kubva kumusoro uye chokwadi ichi chinogona kuvatungamira kuti vavake yavo nzira yekudyara ndine tarisiro yakawanda kupfuura kusvika zvino. Zvirinani chichava chinhu chisingachazonyorwa pamusika wemasheya kubva musi iwoyo pakubuda kwekupedzisira kubva kuGreat Britain. Zvinotarisirwa kuti sarudzo iyi haizononoki kwenguva refu, nerombo rakanaka chikamu chevashambadzi vadiki nepakati.
IEuropean locomotive inononoka
Kusagadzikana kwezvematongerwo enyika nehupfumi kunogona kusvika kune imwe yenyika dzine simba muEuropean Union seGerman. Iyo mweya we sarudzo dzekutanga inobhururuka pamusoro pemisika yese yeEuropean stock uye izvi hazvisi zvekufarira vashoma uye vepakati varimi. Zvekuti ivo vanoona kusahadzika kutsva kunovabata kuti vatore danho kubva panguva chaidzo idzi uye kuti pane rimwe zuva rinogona kuve nesimba rakasimba rekutengesa mumisika yemari. Kunze kwekumwe kufunga kwehunyanzvi iyo ichave iri nyaya yekumwe kuongorora.
Kune rimwe divi, hatigone kukanganwa simba rakakura rineGerman mukuvandudza misika yemari mukondinendi yeEurope. Iko kupi kwese data kunongedza mupfungwa yekuti pane kuderera kwehupfumi kwakakodzera kutariswa. Uye izvo zvinogona kutora kumabhegi kudzikisa nhanho dzavanotorwa panguva ino. Zvakare pamwe nemabatiro ayo epfungwa echikamu chakakura chevashambadzi vadiki nepakati. Kusvika padanho rekuti ivo vanogona kusarudza iwo mapfupi nzvimbo panzvimbo yevatengi. Kana kunyangwe kuitira kuti ivo vari muchinzvimbo chekubvumirana nhevedzano yezvigadzirwa zvemari zvinoenderana neiyo bearish yezvino yemisika yemasheya. Nezvose zvinoreva kushandisa zano iri mukudyara. Kunze kwekumwe kufunga kwehunyanzvi iyo ichave iri nyaya yekumwe kuongorora.