Hapana mubvunzo kuti kudonha kwakanyanya kwakaitika mumisika nekuda kwemhedzisiro yecoronavirus kwakaita masheya mazhinji mumamiriro ezvinhu anobatsira kuita kutenga kusarudza kubva zvino zvichienda mberi. Nekuratidza kukosha mumisika yequity iyo yakasimba kwazvo kana ichienzaniswa nemwedzi isati yawedzera kukura kwedenda. Kunyangwe iko kudzoreredza kwakaitika kubva kupera kwaApril uye izvo zvakatungamira mukukoshesa mune huru yepasi indices yeinosvika makumi maviri muzana. Asi uyu mubvunzo wekutarisa kana iyo nguva yekuvhura zvinzvimbo zvechetatu chegore uye kuti zvingave zvakakosha kupa purofiti kune edu ekudyara.
Kubva pane iyi nzira, zvinonyanya kukosha kuti uzive kupi kwekudyara mukota yechitatu sezvo ichave iri gore regore uko iyo portfolio yekudyara inosarudza mushure mezvaitika nekuwedzera kwecoronavirus. Pamusoro pezvo, inguva iyo huwandu hwekutengesa mumisika yemasheya hunowedzera kudonha zvine simba uye kusvika padanho rekuti zvinogona kutiitisa kutamba kwakaipa mumazuva ano ezhizha rino rakakosha kune vashoma nepakati varimi. Naizvozvo, kurapwa mumisika yemari kunofanirwa kunge kwakasiyana zvine chekuita nemamwe makore uye ichi ndicho chimwe chezvinhu zvekutarisa kana uchigadzira chero zano rekudyara.
Kune rimwe divi, hazvina kukosha zvakanyanya kuongorora kuti uzive pekudyara mukota yechitatu inova zvikamu zvinonyanya kutora zvinzvimbo. Nekuti zvirizvo, hazvina kufanana kuiswa muchikamu chemagetsi pane muchikamu chevashanyi, nekuti shanduko yayo kusvika zvino yanga yanyatsosiyana. Naizvozvo, isu tinofanirwa kuronga kuti tonanga kupi mari yedu inowanikwa kumusika wemasheya uye nenzira iyi kuve nerunyararo rwakawanda rwatisingazove nemamiriro asingadiwe panguva ino yegore. Iko kunogona kuve nekusagadzikana kwakawanda mumitengo inoumba misika mikuru yemusika wemasheya uye iri shure kwezvose zvinoenderana nesarudzo yatichaita panguva ino chaiyo.
Chechitatu trimester: yakawanda inochengetedza
Chinzvimbo munguva ino yegore chinofanirwa kuve chinochengetedza zvakanyanya nekuti iri harisi gore rakajairika sevamwe vese. Nekuda kwekuti kunyangwe muchikamu chekupedzisira cheichi chikamu chechitatu panogona kuve nekumuka kutsva muhutachiona izvo zvinogona kukonzeresa kudonha kutsva uye kwakaoma mumisika yepasi rose yemari. Mupfungwa iyi, zvinokurudzirwa zvikuru kuti mumwedzi iyi varimari vadiki nepakati vanozvidzivirira zvishoma pane dzimwe nguva. Nekuti hurongwa hwakanakisa hwekudzivirira zvido zveizvi kusarudza kuchengetedzeka kunogona kupa kuomarara kune chirevo chemari yemari yekudyara, zvirinani mukati mekota yechitatu yegore rino yakaoma kunzwisisa kune nyika yemari.
Mukati meichi chirevo chizere, iri kirasi rezvidziviriro kana chengetedzo inochengetedza ndeavo vakawana chikamu chakagadziriswa uye chakavimbiswa. Nebatsiro rinowanikwa pakati pe5% ne7% angangoita. Chero chii chinoitika mumisika yemari kana kunyangwe paine kubuda zvakare kweutachiona uhu pakupedzisira hunopedzisira hwave kukanganisa hupfumi hwenyika dzepasi rose nenzira yechisimba kwazvo. Kusvika padanho rekuti panogona kuve neshanduko mumitemo yakagadzirirwa neyese yehurumende uye izvo pasina mubvunzo pakupedzisira zvichave nemhedzisiro yechokwadi kumisika yavo yekuenzana. Chinhu chinotyisa vatyairi vadiki nepakati, kunyanya munyika medu uye kuti izvi zvinoita kuti Ibex 35 ive yeimwe yenzvimbo dzinosara padanho repasi rose. Kunyanya neiyo rebound mumisika yemasheya kubvira pakati paApril kubva pahunhu hwavo hwave hwakadzikira zvakanyanya kupfuura vamwe vese.
Kudzokera kuzvidhinha?
Chimwe chinhu chichafanirwa kutariswa kubva izvozvi ndicho icho chine chekuita nenyaya yekuti kuenzana kwenyika yedu kwakachipa zvisingaite nekuda kwehunhu hwayo, kunyangwe kazhinji kana paine kudonha mune izvi kukosha ndeyekuti tsika idzi vachitambura nekuratidzwa kwavo kumhedzisiro yecoronavirus. Ehezve, ichi ndicho chimwe chezvinhu zvekutora shuwa kuti zviite portfolio yekudyara mune ino kota yegore.
Mushure mekugadzirisa zvakanyanya mitengo yavo, makambani ekuvaka ayo akanyorwa pamari, gore rino atanga kukwira kumusoro uko kwavatungamira kuti vadzose mitengo yavo, kunyangwe parizvino nevaichinja ivo vakangwarira nezve fungidziro yekutora zvinzvimbo uye, ivo vanosarudza kugara padivi kudzamara zviratidzo zvekupedzisira zvapihwa.
Makambani ese ekuvaka uye edzimba akanyorwa paIbex 35 akasangana nekudzokororwa kwakakosha mumavhiki apfuura, mune akawanda mamiriro ari pamusoro pe20%, uye mune chero chiitiko nekuita kuri nani pane indekisi inosarudza iyo inowana 17% purofiti.
Ivhareji purofiti inopihwa nezvikamu zvemakambani zvinoumba iyo Spanish inosarudza indekisi inoenderana nekambani yekuvaka mukati memwedzi gumi nembiri yekupedzisira i5%, zvinoenderana neizvo zvezvimwe zvikamu zvakaita sebhangi kana magetsi.
Pasina kutaurirana muna Kubvumbi
VaSpanish Stock Exchange vakatengesa mukati Mari inoshanduka 29.312 mamirioni euros muna Chivabvu, 4,3% pasi paApril uye 27% pasi pemwedzi mumwe chete wegore rapfuura. Iyo yakaunganidzwa mari kusvika Chivabvu yaive 189.590 mamirioni euros, 4,1% pasi pegore rapfuura.
Huwandu hwekutaurirana mumwedzi hwasvika mamirioni 4,24, 39% kupfuura muna Chivabvu 2019 uye 23% yakakwira kupfuura nhamba yaApril. Huwandu hwenhaurirano dzakaunganidzwa mumwedzi mishanu yekutanga yegore yakamira pamamirioni makumi maviri nemaviri, iyo inomiririra kukura kwe22,8% zvichienzaniswa nenguva yakafanana yegore rapfuura.
MunaMay, BME yakasvika pamusika mugove mukutengesa kwezvivigiro zveSpanish zve73,9%. Ivhareji renji muna Chivabvu yaive 8,46 hwaro poindi yekutanga mutengo (12,1% zvirinani pane inotevera yekutengesa nzvimbo) uye 13,37 hwaro poindi nekudzika kwe € 25.000 mubhuku reodha (a 23,4% zvirinani), sekutaura kwakazvimirira mushumo . Aya manhamba anosanganisira kutengeserana kunoitwa munzvimbo dzekutengesera, zvese zviri pachena bhuku rekuti (LIT), kusanganisira mafandesi, uye iyo isiri-yakajeka kutengeserana (kusviba) kunoitwa kunze kwebhuku.
Kuderera mukushanda
Mushure mekuderera kwezviitiko zvakanyoreswa mumusika wekutanga nekuda kwekutanga kwedambudziko reCovid-19 muEurope, chisi mumisika ye Yakagadziriswa renti Ivo vapora zvichitevera zvirongwa uye zvirongwa zvekutenga zveaseti zveEuropean Union, Hurumende, ICO neECB. Huwandu hwese hwakatengwa muna Chivabvu muFeeded Income hwaive mamirioni makumi masere makumi masere nemakumi masere nemaviri euros, izvo zvinomiririra kudzikira kwe20.882% zvichienzaniswa nemwedzi mumwecheteyo wegore rapfuura. Kubvumidzwa mukutengesa, kusanganisira nyaya dzeChikwereti chePachena uye Yakavanzika Yakagadziriswa Mari, inosvika mamirioni makumi matatu nemakumi matatu nemakumi masere neshanu, kuwedzera kwe29,5% zvichienzaniswa naMay 37.801 uye 61,3% mune yakaunganidzwa yegore. Iyo bhalansi yakasarudzika yakamira pa2019 trillion euros, zvinoreva kuwedzera kwe22,3% kusvika parizvino gore rino.
Kutengesa mumusika we Mhedzisiro yemari mumwedzi waMay yakawedzera zvichienzaniswa nemwedzi wapfuura. MuRamangwana pane IBEX 35 yakakwira 15,8% uye mune Sarudzo pane IBEX 35, 56,4%. Kune avo chikamu, Stock Futures yakawedzera kutengesa kwavo ne63,4% uye Sarudzo dzeStock ne31,6%. Kubva muna Chivabvu 18, hapana chinorambidzwa kumisikidza kana kuwedzera mambure mapfupi munzvimbo dzekuchengetedzwa dzakabvumidzwa kumusika weSpain. Mumisangano gumi isina chiyero ichi, kutengesa muzvibvumirano zveFutures paIBEX 35 kwakawedzera ne19,5% zvichienzaniswa nezvikamu zvakafanana zvegore rapfuura.
Investment muUSA
Kuchekwa kwemutero kwaMutungamiri Donald Trump kunogona kunge kwakakonzera kuvimbisa kwavakaita, maererano nedhata rehurumende rakaburitswa muvhiki dzapfuura. Mupfungwa iyi, zvinofanirwa kuyeukwa kuti bhizinesi rekudyara kwechetatu chakadonha 3%, mushure mekudonha 1% mukota yapfuura. Izvo kudonha zvinoratidza musiyano nekusvetuka kwe4,4% mukota yekutanga uye 4,8% zvichienzaniswa negore rapfuura.
Kuderera kunouya mukati mekusagadzikana kwehupfumi, kwakasimudzirwa muchikamu nehondo yekutengeserana yaTrump neChina. Izvi zvinokonzeresa kusagadzikana pane nharo dzake dzekuti $ 1,5 tiririyoni mutero bhiri yaakasaina muna Zvita 2017 ichave inosimudzira bhizimusi kudyara, kuhaya uye muhoro kukura. "Makambani ari kubuda pachena," akadaro panguva iyoyo.
Kuderera kwebhizimusi rekudyara kwaisanganisira kuderera kwe15,3% mukudyara muzvivakwa - izvo zvinosanganisira kuvaka zvivakwa zvitsva kana migodhi yemigodhi - uye kuderera kwe3,8% mukudyara mumidziyo, sekutaura kwevanoongorora kuMorgan. Stanley. Mari yakapfava inoshandiswa "chiratidzo cheinononoka kukura kwepasi rose nharaunda uye kuenderera kwekutengeserana mutemo kusava nechokwadi," vaongorori veMorgan Stanley vakanyora. Chirevo chakacherekedza kuti zvimwe zvinhu zvinopa kuderera zvinogona kunge zviri zvenguva pfupi. Kuisa mari mundege kwakadonha makumi masere muzana, pamwe nekuda kwematambudziko aive naBoeing nendege yayo 80 Max.
Bhizinesi rekudyara kuora mwoyo
Sachigaro weFederal Reserve Jerome Powell akapomera "kukura kunonoka kunze kwenyika uye kusimudzira kwekutengeserana" nekuda kwekudonha mune bhizinesi rekudyara. Akacherekedza kuti US iri kushanda pachikamu chekutanga chechibvumirano chekutengeserana neChina, icho "kana chikasainwa chikaitwa, chingave nemhedzisiro yekudzora kusagadzikana kwezvekutengeserana nekuderedza kusava nechokwadi, uye icho chingave chinhu chakanaka. tenda, kune bhizinesi chivimbo uye pamwe chiitiko nekufamba kwenguva. '
Powell akaita zvirevo mukuzivisa iyo inotarisirwa yekota-poindi chimbadzo chemutengo wakatemwa, asi akacherekedza kuti inogona kukwidziridza iyo bar yekucheka kwakadaro mune ramangwana. Kune zvimwe zviratidzo zvekuti kusava nechokwadi kunogona kunge kuri kupinda mubhodhi. Kupedziswa kwezvibvumirano zvepasirese, kazhinji chiratidzo cheChivimbo chivimbo, zvakadonha mukota yechitatu, iine huwandu hwezvibvumirano hwakaderera 21,2% kusvika $ 622.000 bhiriyoni kubva pa $ 790.000 bhiriyoni, sekureva kweMergermarket. MuUnited States, kukosha kwezvibvumirano kwakadonha 32% kusvika $ 263.000 bhiriyoni kubva pa $ 387.000 bhiriyoni.
Kutaura chokwadi, maitiro ese ari maviri anogona kudzoserwa. Kusava nechokwadi pamusoro pekutengeserana kunogona kunge kuri kuderera, hofisi yeUS Trade Representative ichiti svondo rapfuura kuti China neUS vave pedyo nekupedzisa chikamu chekutanga. Kune rimwe divi, imwe data rakaburitswa raive netariro. Ongororo yemwedzi nemwedzi yeADP uye Moody's Analytics yakawana kuti makambani akahaya vamwe vashandi zviuru makumi maviri nezvishanu muna Gumiguru pane vezvehupfumi vakaongororwa naDow Jones vaitarisira Kukura kwechigadzirwa cheUS kwakakura kwakarovawo zvinotarisirwa, kunyangwe ichidonha bhizinesi rekudyara. Dhipatimendi reCommerce rinoti Chitatu kuti zviitiko zvehupfumi zvakakura pamwero wepagore we25.000% mukota yekutanga, yakakwira kupfuura yekutanga tarisiro ye1,9%, inotungamirwa nekushandisa kwakasimba kwevatengi.
Sarudzo muUnited States
Zvakangodaro, sezvo sarudzo ye2020 ichipisa, nhamba idzi dzinopa vanopikisa vaTrump zvinhu zvekukwikwidza pamitemo yake. Chipangamazano wezvehupfumi wezvematongerwo enyika kuna Sen. Elizabeth Warren vakatumira mashoko neChitatu, "Kuti unyatso simudzira bhizimusi nekudyara, isa mari muhomwe dzevanhu kuti ushandise."
Hurongwa hwakazara hwehupfumi hwaWarren hwakavakirwa muchikamu pane fungidziro yekuti hupfumi hwakawanda hweAmerica hwakasarudzika pakati pemakambani akasarudzika nevanhu vakapfuma. Zvirongwa zvake zvinosanganisira "Ultra-miriyoni emadhora" mutero, iyo inodaidzira 2% mutero padhora rega rega imba ine pamusoro pemadhora makumi mashanu emadhora uye 50% mutero kumhuri dzine mari inodarika bhiriyoni rimwe remadhora. Anoda kubhadharisa makambani 3% pamadhora ese avanowana pamusoro pe $ 1.000 miriyoni.
Chirongwa chake, zvakadaro, chinoita kunge chinozunza maECO neimwe nzira. VaWall Street equity vaongorori vakaona masheya emakambani ezvehutano, emari uye emagetsi senge ari panjodzi kana vakasarudza. Mitengo yemugove yevazhinji vacho, kusanganisira United Health uye Apollo Global, yatove mukunetseka kuri pachena pamusoro pemitemo yaanofunga.
Misika yemabond yakaungana
Pasi rese masheya akafamba padivi, akamanikidzwa nekuwedzera hondo yekutengeserana yeUS-China uye zviratidzo zvekudzikira kukura kwehupfumi hwenyika. Mazhinji emabhanga epakati anoderedza chimbadzo mukuyedza kurwisa zvinokuvadza zvemitero yepamusoro uye yakaderera yekugadzira zviitiko. Mari inosimuka yemakambani yakatambura kurasikirwa kukuru, nepo misika muUnited States neJapan yakaita zvirinani. Ndichiri kune rimwe divi, zvinofanirwa kucherechedzwa kuti pakupedzisira misika yemabond yakadzorerwa.
Dziviriro masheya akapfuura zvikamu zvehupfumi zvine hunyanzvi zvakazara, inotungamirwa neiyo rally yakasimba pakati pezvishandiso nemakambani edzimba. Vatengi zvigadzirwa zvemasheya zvakare zvakatumira zvakakosha kuwana. Simba uye zvekutanga zvinhu masheya akaderera sezvo varimi vachinetseka nezve hutano hwehupfumi hwenyika. Zvemari uye zvevatengi discretionary masheya aive akaomesesa.
Masheya akamuka pakati pechimiro chakajeka chehupfumi hwenyika uye zvirinani-kupfuura-zvinotarisirwa mihoro yemakambani. Akawanda makiyi emakesi indices akarova marekodhi akakwirira mukati mekota, kunyangwe kuwedzera kukakavadzana neNorth Korea uye kutanga kwemwaka unoparadza wedutu. Masitoko eEuropean uye misika iri kubuda yakapfuura masheya eUS.
Zvehupfumi zvine hungwaru masheya anowanzo kupa kudzoka kwakakwirira kupfuura zvinodzivirira zvikamu. Ruzivo rwetekinoroji, simba uye zvinhu mumatanda zvakatumira misika kumusoro. Mari dzemari dzakasimukira zvakare pane zvinotarisirwa zvekukwira kwenzvimbo dzepfuma. Chikamu chevatengi chakaderera, chakayerwa nekuderera kwakanyanya mumasheya ekambani yefodya.
Sachigaro weFederal Reserve Jerome Powell akapomera "kukura kunonoka kunze kwenyika uye kusimudzira kwekutengeserana" nekuda kwekudonha mune bhizinesi rekudyara. Akacherekedza kuti US iri kushanda pachikamu chekutanga chechibvumirano chekutengeserana neChina, icho "kana chikasainwa chikaitwa, chingave nemhedzisiro yekudzora kusagadzikana kwezvekutengeserana nekuderedza kusava nechokwadi, uye icho chingave chinhu chakanaka. tenda, kune bhizinesi chivimbo uye pamwe chiitiko nekufamba kwenguva. '