Kudzoreredza hupfumi kuchave sei?

Pakave nekufungidzira kusingaperi nezve mhando yekudzokeresa hupfumi hweUS huchave. Ichave iri yekukurumidza V-yakaumbwa kupora, kana yakareba nguva pakati pekuderera uye kunotevera kupora (U-yakaumbwa)? Dzimwe nzira dzingaite dzekupora dzakafananidzwa nemavara "W" uye "L".

Muchokwadi, muto wealfabheti uyu "pakupedzisira unokosha zvishoma," sekutaura kwaVincent Deluard, mukuru wepasi rose macro-strategy kukambani yekudyara INTL FCStone. Mune email, akataura kuti varimi havafanirwe kuora moyo neizvi, nekuti, anodaro, "kufungidzira kwehupfumi, chiitiko chine njodzi zvakanyanya, hakubatsiri nhasi: hatizive kana kuchazove nefungu rechipiri rehutachiona kana kwete, inflation kana kushomeka, bhalanzi rezvemari kana chikwereti chejubheri, nezvimwe. «

Naizvozvo, kuziva kuti fungidziro hadzina kusiyana zvakanyanya kubva kumaitiro edu ekudyara zvinofanirwa kukurudzira. Kana paine chero chinhu, iyo coronavirus kudzikisira inogona kunge yatopfuura, asi iri refu kukwira yakanangana ne "zvakajairika."

GDP mukota ino

Deluard akasvika pamhedziso yake yekuverenga paakaverenga kudzoka kwemushambadzi anofungidzira uyo aikwanisa kufungidzira kuti GDP yekupedzisira ichave makota mana pamberi. Izvi zvinosanganisira mwero unoshamisa wekujekesa, hongu, sezvo iri yakareba mushure mekunge imwe kota yapera kuti hurumende yasvika iyo yekupedzisira GDP nhamba yekota iyoyo.

Nekudaro, Deluard akaona kuti uyu investor anofungidzira, kunyangwe aine chirevo chinoshamisa, angadai akakurira nzira iri nyore yekutenga-nekubata mumakore makumi manomwe apfuura.

Kunyanya, akafunga kuti uyu investor achave 100% akadyarwa kana GDP kukura munzvimbo ina dzinotevera dzakakurumidza kupfuura iyo yekota iripo; zvikasadaro waizoisa mari. Kubva mukupera kwema40, uyu investor angadai akakunda S&P 500 SPX, + 0,43% nepasi pegumi muzana poindi yegore. Ndiwo mubayiro mudiki kwazvo wekuve wakakwana tipster, kunyanya sezvo mikana yacho ichikatyamadza kuti fungidziro dzedu dzinowira kure, kure nekukwana.

Funga kuti zvakawanikwa naDelpard zvinorevei kune edu asina chokwadi mamiriro ezvinhu, matisingazive chaizvo kuti hupfumi huri kukura nekukurumidza sei. Asi isu tichava nebhenefiti shoma kwazvo kupfuura vatinoshanda navo vatyairi kunyangwe dai taiziva izvozvi kuti kukura kwehupfumi kuchakurumidza mukota yechipiri ya2021.

Nei zivo yezve ramangwana rekukura kwehupfumi iri nyaya shoma? Deluard anopokana imhaka yekuti mhindu yemiganhu uye P / E ratios zvine basa zvakanyanya. Hupfumi hungangodaro huri kukura nekukurumidza, mushure mezvose, asi kana mibairo yemubhadharo iri kudzikira kukura kwacho hakuzoshanduri kuita mubereko wakawanda. Uye mari inokurumidza kukura haigone kukunda kuderera kweP / E.

Yemberi mibairo yemakambani

Iri rakanyanya basa rinotambirwa neiyo P / E muyero zvine chekuita nemutengo wekudzikisira unoshandiswa nevashambadzi - zvakajeka kana zvisina tsarukano - pavanokoshesa mibairo yemberi yemakambani. Iine yakakwira mutengo wekuburitsa, purofiti mumakore anotevera inoreva zvishoma kudiki kune yekambani kukoshesa ikozvino. Iine yakaderera dhisikaundi rate, ivo vane basa zvakanyanya. Muchokwadi, Deluard munguva pfupi yapfuura yakaratidza kuti, zvinoenderana neyakachinjisa chiyero chakashandiswa, iyo S & P 500 ikozvino yakaringana kukosha pakati pe1.851 ne3.386 XNUMX.

Hazvishamisi kuti sekutaura kwaDelpard, kuziva pachine nguva kukura kweGDP "hakuna maturo." Hapana chimwe cheizvi kutaura kuti hupfumi hauna basa. Izvo zvine basa, hongu. Asi kukanganisa kwako kwakanyanya kana iwe ukatarisa kune yakareba-refu stock stock. Munguva pfupi, hupfumi hunotamba zvishoma pane chinzvimbo pane mibairo yemubhadharo uye mitengo yemitero yakasungirwa kuhuwandu

Iyi nhaurirano inoisawo mukutarisa gakava razvino pamusoro pekukanganisika kuri pachena pakati pemusika wekutengesa nehupfumi. Zvinotariswa naDeluard ndezvekuti kudamburwa uku hakusi kutsva kana kunyanya kukura izvozvi kupfuura makore apfuura.

Vashandi vanotarisira kupora nekukurumidza kwehupfumi sezvo iyo NASDAQ 100 inorova yakakwira kumusoro uye iyo S & P 500 inobvisa kurasikirwa kwegore. Iyo yekumisikidza S & P 500 index yakadonha ingangoita 34% kubva munaKukadzi kukwira kusvika Kurume kudzika, ichisunda misika munzvimbo ye bearish. Kuwedzera tekinoroji uye kutaurirana masheya kwakasimudzira mibairo yeNASDAQ, nemakambani akaita seZoom akapotsa awedzera katatu mutengo wemugove kubva kutanga kwaNdira sezvo kukiya kwakamanikidza vatengi kugamuchira nzira itsva dzekutaurirana.

Musika wenzombe mutsva wakasimbiswa mavhiki gumi nematanhatu chete shure kwekutya kweCOVID-16 kuona varimi vachitengesa zvinhu zvavo kana hupfumi hwaityiwa muUnited States.

Iyo NASDAQ yakakwira 44,7% kubva pairi Kurume 23 pasi. Musika wenzombe unowanzo wonekwa sekukwira kweanopfuura makumi maviri kubva muzana kubva pakadzika pasi.

BetaShare mukuru wezvehupfumi David Bassanese anotenda kuti misika inogona kuve netariro yakanyanyisa nekufukidzira yakakwira yakakwira yakakwira.

Pakupedzisira, ndinofungidzira kuti misika ichave netariro yekumhanyisa kusimuka kwehupfumi, asi misika inozotungamirwa nenhau dzemazuva ese, idzo dzakaramba dzichikurudzira kubva pakaiswa. Kuvharwa kwepasi rose kuri kuitika, "akadaro.

Nhoroondo dzehupfumi dzakashata

"Mushure mezvose, musika uyu wakanyatso kuburitsa zvakashata data rezvehupfumi rine chekuita nekukiya panguva yekutengesa munaKurume, uye nekudaro yaive isina dhata iyi payakatanga kuoneka mumwedzi ichangopfuura," vakatsanangura VaBassanese.

Sezvo hupfumi hwunotanga kuvhurika, nyanzvi yezvehupfumi inotaura kuti mufananidzo wakajeka wemafungiro ezvehupfumi uchave nemhedzisiro pamusika wemasheya.

"Musika uyu wakakwanisa kutarisa kubhenefiti yekuvharwa maererano nekupfava kwechave, kuvhurwa zvishoma nezvishoma uye ikozvino zvimwe zviratidzo zvekutanga zvekudzokazve mune dhata rezvehupfumi. Asi iro dambudziko richauya mushure mekutanga kubhejera mune yekumashure-kuvhurazve data rehupfumi, kana iyo yekupedzisira-data yakanyanya kukunda, sekufunga kwangu ichave iri.

"Musika uyu unogona kuramba uchiita sekunge paine rally yakaita V kusvika paine humbowo hwakajeka hwekupokana," vakaenderera mberi VaBassanese.

Chinhu chikuru chakasimudzira pamusika uyu yaive Chishanu yemwedzi wenyaya yebasa, iyo yakaratidza kudonha kusingatarisirwi muhuwandu hwekushaikwa kwemabasa, zvichisimbisa maonero ekuti kukuvara kwehupfumi kwakanyanya kubva pakuputika kwehutachiona kwapera.

Masheya akange akamborohwa zvakanyanya nekudzimiswa, kusanganisira kutakura, kushanya uye indasitiri yekutengesa, zvakwira sezvo varimi vanova netariro nezve yakatemwa post-COVID-19 nyika. "Zviri pachena kuti zviri kuitika ndezvekuti mufaro wekuvhurwa urikutendera mazhinji emabhizinesi aya anga achitambudzwa neCOVID-19 kuti adzoke adzokere musimba," akadaro Stanley Druckenmiller, Mutungamiri uye CEO weDuquesne Family Office., kuCNBC.

Nekudaro, VaBassanese vakayambira vatengesi veAustralia kuti vachenjere uye vave nemoyo murefu pavanenge vachiisa mari mumusika weUS.

“Ndichiri kufunga kuti inguva yekuchenjerera, kunyanya kana usati watenga musangano mukuru wemari ichangoburwa nenzira huru zvakadaro. Kutya kurasikirwa nepo kwakanyanya, asi ndinofungidzira kuti kudzora kwakanaka kunogona kuitika mumwedzi iri kuuya - kanenge hafu yerally kubva mukupera kwaKurume - sezvo chokwadi chekudzikama kwehupfumi chiri pachena, "vakadaro VaBassanese.

Mhedzisiro yakasimba yenyika dzakasimudzira masheya epamba, uye musika weAustralia wakakwira 2,48% panguva yekutsikirira.

Bearish maitiro mumusika wemasheya

Vashambadziri vanozivikanwa kwazvo, ne75% vachitarisira kupora kweU- kana W kubva kuupfumi pakudonha kwechirwere checoronavirus, zvichienzaniswa ne10% chete kutarisira V-chimiro, maererano neongororo yemaneja. Bank of America Global Fund Fund . Yechipiri wave ye coronavirus ndiyo yakanyanya njodzi yemuswe, iine 52% mamaneja akaongororwa vachitaura nezvayo, nepo zvachose kushaya basa (15%) uye kuparara kweEuropean Union (11%) kunotora nzvimbo yechipiri neyechitatu.

Mamaneja vanodzinga zvinonetsa zvevatengesi sezvo masheya eUS anosvika pakakwirira peiyo tech bubble. Mushonga haufanire kunge wakaipisisa kupfuura chirwere

Multi-maneja mari inoderedza kuenzana kwekuenzanisira kune yakaderera chikamu. Mari yemari yadonha zvishoma kusvika pa5,7% kubva pa5,9% munaKubvumbi, asi ichiri pamusoro pevhareji yemakore gumi apfuura e10%, zvichiratidza kuti "Tenga chiratidzo" ibheja rekubheja.

Mukuenderana neiyi "yakanyanyisa kusimba" mari, vakapindura vane huremu hwakapetana hwemidziyo, senge simba nemaindasitiri, uye vane huremu hwepamusoro hwekudzivirira zvinhu, senge hutano hwehutano, mari uye mabond. Iko kukosha maringe nekukura nharo kwakadzokera kumatunhu epasirese emari, ne 23% mambure evashambadziri vanotenda kuti stock ichadzora kukura, chimiro chakapedzisira kuonekwa muna Zvita 2007.

Maonero evatengesi

Vazhinji mamaneja mamaneja (63%) vakati makambani akawedzeredzwa, vachitsigira maonero ekuti varimi vanoda kuti makambani ashandise mari yavo mukuvandudza mashiti, nemambure 73% vachitarisira izvi, nepo 15% ichida kuwedzera capex uye 7% vanoda kuti mari idzoserwe kune vagovana.

Euro inotaridzika yakachipa kune vakapindura, iine 17% mambure inoratidza kuti mari haina kukosheswa, nepo 43% mambure achitenda kuti dhora rakawandisa, kunyangwe kufumurwa kweUS equities kuchiramba kuri 24% net kuwandisa nepo Eurozone equities iri pasi pehuremu (17% net), yavo yakaderera mugove kubva Chikunguru 2012.

Kunyangwe izvi, UK ndiyo yaive nzvimbo isina huremu hwakanyanya mukuwongorora kwemwedzi uno kwevatungamiriri vehomwe yepasi rose, iine huremu hwepasi hwe33%. Nepo kune rimwe divi zvichifanira kurangarirwa kuti kugadziriswazve kwecheni yekupa, kuwedzera mukudzivirira uye mafomu matsva emitero yakakwira, inotora nzvimbo yekutanga mune rondedzero yevatengesi pane shanduko yesimba mune yepashure peCovid nyika, yakataurwa 68 %, 44% uye 42% yenguva zvakateedzana.

Chikwereti kuregedza, green green, stagflation uye wepasirose mari inowanikwa zvakare iri pamwedzi uno runyorwa rwezvinogona kuitika mushure mekuputika.

Kuchengetedza pamakomisheni

Kunyanya vatyairi vanoita mabasa mazhinji pagore, zvese zviri zviviri zvakanangana nenguva pfupi, yepakati kana yakareba, vanogona kutora mukana weyakaenzana musika wemari yemasheya ayo ari kutanga kushambadza akawanda uye mazhinji masangano emari uye, ayo anotendera kuchengetedza kwakakura maererano nemakomisheni. yemabasa akaitwa. Chiyero chayo chiri pakati pe6 ne10 euros pamwedzi, uye kumunhu anoita zviitiko zvina zvepamwedzi, semuenzaniso, iyo yekuchengetedza inogona kureva angangoita makumi matatu euros pamwedzi paavhareji, iyo inobatsirawo kugadzirisa mari. Iyo yakadzika mwero pamusika wemasheya inobvumira mushandisi kuita akawanda kutenga nekutengesa mashandiro sezvavanoda, sezvazvinoitika nefoni kana Internet mitengo. Kunyangwe iko kushanda kwayo kusiri kwakapararira kwazvo mubazi rezvemari, inonyanya kufukidza mabhangi nemabhangi ekuchengetedza anoshanda kuburikidza neInternet uye nevaichinja, zvese zvepasirese uye zvepasi rese, zvinova izvo zvinopa mamiriro akanakisa.

Chero zvazvingaitika, hazvigone kukanganwika kuti kutenga kwakanaka mumisika yemasheya kunoreva kuita kufambira mberi kwakawanda kuitira kuti mhedzisiro iri muchimiro chekuwana mari isingatore nguva kuti isvike, asi pane izvi zvakakosha kutora akateedzana nhungamiro uye zvakare matanho ekuzvidzivirira nechinangwa chekuti chinzvimbo chakashata kutora chinogona kuremedza mari yedu mune ramangwana, kunyangwe pamutengo wayo ichikura munguva yekusimudzira.

Usati watora zvigaro mune chekuchengetedza, zvinokurudzirwa kuti uongorore hunyanzvi hwayo uye hwakakosha, kwete kuisiya kune yakasarudzika sarudzo inogona kungounza matambudziko kune zvido zvevashambadzi vadiki nepakati, kunyanya nenzira yehurema.

Kupinda munzvimbo dzakakodzera kunorerutsa basa rekusarudza kana uchivaka portfolio, sezvo zvingangotora mafungiro emusika akanaka, chero bheji rasarudzwa, chero bedzi data rakakosha remakambani iri rakanaka.

Mukukwira kumusoro, mutemo wakajairika pakati pevashambadzi vane ruzivo ndeyekumirira kucheka mumitengo yemakambani kuti vapinde mumusika nemitengo inokwikwidza, izvo zvinogona kukonzera kukwira kumusoro kwemutengo. Kukosha uye, nekudaro, kwakakura mikana yekuongorora zvakare. Izvi zvakatemwa zvakatemwa zvinoitika kana paine imwe "kuneta" munzvimbo dzekutenga nekutengesa zvinotanga kuyangarara, ndiko kuti, apo musika wakanyanyisa uye unoda kugadziriswa mumitengo kuti uenderere mberi nekukwira kwayo kumusoro. Aya "mabhureki" mumutengo wayo wekudzokorodza, umo kutengesa kunotanga kubuda, kunoitika kanoverengeka panguva yekusimudzira, kunyangwe vaongorori vemusika wemasheya vanozvitsanangura se "kufamba kwakakwana kwemusika”Izvo zvinoshandira indices, zvikamu kana masheya kuti vawane simba rakawanda muzvikamu zvinotevera zvekutengesa. Ivo vanonyanya kukodzera kune avo varairidzi vari kunanga kwenguva ipfupi uye vanoda kutora yavo yese "muto" kubva kumusoro kumusoro mafambiro anowanikwa neyakaenzana. Pane kudaro, ivo vane mashoma mashandiro kune avo vanosarudza mari yavo kuenda kune yepakati nepakati yakareba sezvo kwavo kukanganisika kusingazobudirire.

Kutenga masheya padyo nemitengo yavo yekutsigira: Kuburikidza nemachati zvichave zvichikwanisika kutarisa kukosha kuri mumamiriro ezvinhu aya, kuti gare gare uzvitengese munzvimbo yekumirisana, kana zvakare kana zviitiko zvatsigirwa zvakaputsika. Iyo ndeimwe yemaitiro akareruka anoshandiswa mumusika wemasheya, kunyangwe izvi zvichikosha kuti urambe uchiona nenguva shanduko yemitengo yevanogona kukwikwidza vanogona kunge vari chikamu chechengetedzo portfolio.

Chengetedzo dzakadzika pasi: Icho chimwe chezviitiko zvakanakira chero mushambadzi anofanirwa kubata nekutenga, kunyangwe zviine zvakakomba zvakanyanya kuti zvakaomera vatengesi kuti vatore iyi chaiyo nzvimbo uye vanofanirwa kubatsirwa neongororo dzinoitwa nevamiririri vakuru. kana nevaichinja zvemari, izvo zvinoburitswa mune yakasarudzika midhiya. Usati watora zvinzvimbo mune chengetedzo, zvinokurudzirwa kuti uongorore hunyanzvi uye hwakakosha chimiro.


Izvo zviri muchinyorwa zvinoomerera pamisimboti yedu ye tsika dzekunyora. Kuti utaure chikanganiso tinya pano.

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  1. Inotarisira iyo data: Miguel Ángel Gatón
  2. Chinangwa cheiyo data: Kudzora SPAM, manejimendi manejimendi.
  3. Legitimation: Kubvuma kwako
  4. Kutaurirana kwedata
  5. Dhata yekuchengetedza: Dhatabhesi inobatwa neOccentus Networks (EU)
  6. Kodzero: Panguva ipi neipi iwe unogona kudzora, kupora uye kudzima ruzivo rwako