Ehezve, imwe yenyaya dzakakodzera kwazvo gore rino kuita kwakasarudzika kweUnited States stock index, iyo Dow Jones. Kusvika padanho rekuti rakakwenenzverwa pane ese-nguva marefu mushure mekunyepedzera nzombe inomhanya izvo zvauri kusangana nazvo makore mashoma apfuura. Hazvishamise kuti, ndiyo inonyanya kusimbisa index yenyika dzese uye, zvechokwadi, pamusoro peEurope. Iko kusahadzika kukuru kune vanoita mari kunobva mukuti inogona kunge yatononoka kuvhura zvinzvimbo mumusika uyu wakakosha wezvemari. Kana pamwe kwete?
Zvese zvinoita sekunge zvinoratidza kuti iyo Dow Jones haina miganho mberi uye hapana nhanho dzinogona kuirwisa. Kunyangwe hazvo paine nguva ichavepo apo iri rakasimba rekumhanyisa nhangemutange richafanirwa kumira uye mupfungwa iyi hapasi vashoma vaongorori vanotenda kuti ino nguva iri padhuze nekugadzirwa. Zvichida nekuda kwemhedzisiro ye matanho ekudzivirira yakashandiswa neMutungamiriri weUnited States, VaDonald Trump. Chero zvazvingaitika, ino nguva ichiripo kwete kusvika uye varairidzi vari kusangana nezera regoridhe pasitoko huru kwazvo pasitoko.
Izvo zvinofanirwa kuyeukwa kuti iyo Dow Jones yanga ichisimuka zvakatsiga kubva panguva yakaoma dambudziko rezvemari kumashure mumakore 2017 na2008. Pasina kana mabhureki uye chete nekugadziriswa chaiko, senge izvo zvakagadzirwa mugore rino razvino. Asi mushure memasangano mashoma ekutengesa, zvikamu zvaro zvinokwira zvakare uye kana zvichikwanisika nesimba rakakura uye kusimba makore angangoita mapfumbamwe umo kuongororwa kweiyo indekisi ndechimwe chezviitiko zvakatanhamara zvemari mumakore apfuura. Kupesana neEuropean stock market iyo yanga ichinyanya kuzeza munguva ino.
Dow Jones: pamatanhatu makumi maviri nematanhatu
Hapana chakaderera pane icho chasvika padanho remakumi maviri nematanhatu mapoinzi, kunyangwe kuvapfuura mumaawa ekupedzisira Iko iyo mutengi mirairo ivo vari kumisikidzwa nekujeka kukuru kune vatengesi. Wese munhu anoda kutenga zvikamu muDow Jones uye nenzira iyi zvakaoma kwazvo kudzika. Simba rayo haripokane mubvunzo, zvirinani kwenguva uye zvakadaro kwemakore mazhinji, mazhinji. Kucheka kunoshandiswa nevatengesi kutenga masheya pamitengo yemakwikwi. Iko pasina kushomeka kwekupinda kwemari kubva kunzvimbo dzese dzenharaunda, kwete kuNorth America chete.
Kunze kwekufunga uku, zvakakosha kuti uongorore kana iri nguva yakanaka yekuvhura zvinzvimbo mumusika uno wechitoro. Zvakanaka, haisi nguva yakanakisa yekupinda nekuti zviratidzo zvekutanga zvekuneta zvinogona kuitika uye izvi zvakajairika uye zvakajairika mumisika yemari. Sekutaura kwevanoongorora zvemari chaizvo, hapana chinokwira nekusingaperi mumusika wemasheya. Kunyangwe iri angangoita makore gumi mundima yakanaka uye iri imwe yenguva dzinoyevedza mumusika wemasheya weUnited States. Vatengesi vakakwanisa ita kuti kuchengetedza kwako kubatsire neinosvika 90%. Ndokunge, nemari yemamirionari inowanikwa muzviitiko zvizhinji.
Chii chingamise kusimuka uku?
Pane zvinhu zvakawanda zvinogona kumisa kukwira kunoshamisa muUS equities. Ehezve, imwe yacho inouya kubva kumatanho ekudzivirira akagamuchirwa uye kuti inoumba muvengi wayo mukuru, sechirevo kubva ku International Monetary Fund (IMF). Mupfungwa iyi, tarisiro yavo kune inotevera haina kunaka sezvazviri kusvika zvino. Kunyangwe iko kururamisa, vanodaro vaongorori vezvemari, hakuzoite semhirizhonga senge munguva dzapfuura mumutengo. Kunyangwe hazvo fungidziro ichifanirwa kuve iri yeanowanzo dhinomineta muzviito zvako.
Mupfungwa iyi, iko kutenda kwemisika yemari ndeyekuti musika weAmerican stock unogona kuva nawo kukura kukuru kwekufamba kupfuura yeEuropean. Hazvishamise kuti izvi hazvina kukonzera kukwira kwakakura kwakadaro mumutengo wezvikamu zvaro. Naizvozvo, kune kukakavara kukuru kuti mitengo idonhe kubva ikozvino. Muchokwadi, imwe yemakakatanwa makuru pakati pevashambadziri ndeyekuti zvingave zvinobatsira here ikozvino kupinda mumisika yemasheya yekondinendi yakare kupfuura mhiri kweAtlantic.
Njodzi dzemaitiro ekuchinja
Chimwe chinhu chinofanirwa kutariswa kubva zvino zvichienda mberi ingozi dzinogona kumuka mukuchinja kwemaitiro muUnited States stock market, uye kunyanya muDow Jones. Ivo vakasiyana uye vane hunhu hwakasiyana, kunyangwe zvichizikanwa kucherechedzwa kuti havafanirwe kuteedzerwa. Kana zvisiri, ivo vanongova kutyisidzira kwakakomba kwekufambira mberi muAmerican equities kuti pakupedzisira vamire. Uye pakati pedu atinofumura pazasi anoonekera.
- El kunyanya kudzivirirwa kuti mutungamiri wavo akapa hupfumi hweUS uye kuti vanoiisa panjodzi huru. Kunyangwe pamwe mhedzisiro yaro isingaonekwe mune ipfupi izwi uye kwete kunyangwe pakati. Asi iri njodzi iyo yakavanzika uye iripo kukunyadzisa kwevakawanda vashoma nepakati varimi.
- La kudzikira muhupfumi world uye kuti pakupedzisira ichabatawo United States pachayo uye kunyangwe yanga yakagwinya sei mumwedzi ichangopfuura. Nemitengo yekushaikwa kwemabasa iyo yakadzikiswa kusvika pazasi enhoroondo, pamwe nekukura kwayo kwehupfumi.
- Mamiriro ezvinhu e nyika dziri kubuda Icho chimwe chezviratidzo izvo zvinogona kuunza kumwe kushaya simba muhupfumi hwayo. Kunyanya zvine chekuita nematokisi ayo ayo anochengetedza zvirinani zvehukama hwekutengesa uye izvo zvinogona kunge zviri kukonzera nyowani nyonganiso yenyika.
- Kutya kwe kukwirira kurwara parizvino inobatwa neUS equities. Izvo hazvigone kukanganwika kuti kune makore mazhinji neiyi inoenderera maitiro uye kuti pane imwe nguva inofanirwa kumira. Hazvishamisi kuti inguva inosimudzira zvakanyanya mumusika wemasheya wenyika ino huru uye nesimba risingazivikanwe mumakumi emakore apfuura.
Makakatanwa neChina
Munguva yekupedzisira yekutengesa zvikamu, iyo Dow Jones iri kuita kufambira mberi kwekutya kunokonzerwa nekusagadzikana kwekutengeserana pakati peUnited States neChina. Nezve zvikamu zvinobatsira kwazvo, zvinofanirwa kucherechedzwa kuti purofiti yepamusoro yaive yeiyo zvinhu zvekutanga, pamberi pemari nesimba (0,38). Chero zvazvingaitika, pakati pemakumi matatu mazita akanyorwa muDow Jones, kukwira kwemakambani akadai saCarterpillar, Boeing naGoldman Sachs (30%) anomira. Nemutengo wekutenga uri kuve wakakosha mumazuva achangopfuura uye izvo zvinogona kuita sarudzo yekutenga kwemwedzi iri kuuya.
Kune rimwe divi, zvine basa zvakare kuti nharaunda yemusika uno wezvemari wakakosha unodzivirira kupfuura makore mashoma apfuura uye tekinoroji chikamu ndiyo irikukanganiswa zvakanyanya mukutarisira kwayo kwekukura. Iko kukwira kwemutengo wemafuta kusiri kukanganisa mitengo yavo zvakanyanya. Chero zvazviri, kufadza zvinotarisirwa nemakambani emafuta ane huremu hwakanyanya muDow Jones. Yakakura kupfuura mumisika yemasheya yekondinendi yekare ine zvirevo zvishoma zvekusarudza iyi sarudzo mukudyara.
Kunzwa kuvimba
Chero zvazvingaitika, varimi vanoramba vachitenda mukugona kwemusika uyu wezvemari uye kunyangwe paine mitengo yakakwira muzvikamu zvemakambani akanyorwa. Panyaya iyi, zvinofanirwa kucherechedzwa kuti maererano neongororo yemwedzi yapfuura yemaneja emari kubva kuBank of America Merrill Lynch, 69% yeavo vakaongororwa vakati United States ndiyo dunhu rakanakisa kana zvasvika mari inotarisirwa, rekodhi chikamu munhoroondo yegore gumi nemanomwe yekuongorora Uyu mubvunzo wekuvimba kukuru pachikamu chechikamu chakanaka chevashambadziri uye kuti ivo vari kubatsira kuwedzera kwavo kuti kuenderere mberi.
Nezve iyo tekinoroji indekisi par kugona, iyo Nasdaq, kunyangwe hazvo shanduko iri yakanaka mumavhiki apfuura, haina kufanana zvakanyanya sezvakaitika kuna Dow Jones. Nekuda kwekushaikwa kwesimba iro rinomiririrwa nehunyanzvi chikamu. Nekudonhedza apo neapo kunokwevera kutarisa, senge mune chaiyo kesi yeApple kana Microsoft. Kunyangwe ichifanira kutariswa kuti vanobva pamubhadharo wakakwira kwazvo mumakore masere apfuura, uye kuti mune zvimwe zviitiko vanomiririra kufambira mberi padyo ne80%. Chikamu icho chiri musimboti chakanyanya kunetsa kuwana mumisika yemari.
Nekudaro, rimwe rematambudziko akakura anodyarwa muUnited States stock market ndeyekuti mashandiro ayo ane makomisheni akawandisa kana achienzaniswa neenyika. Chinhu chinodzosera vatengesi kuti vaite mashandiro mumusika wezvemari uyu. Kunze kwekuve nemakambani asingazivikanwe nevashandisi uye vanosarudza hunhu hwepamba.