Iyo Buffet Index

Iyo Buffet Index inofungidzira kudzikira mumisika

Mushure medambudziko riri kurova uye kunyudza iyo GDP yenyika dzese, masheya anoita kunge atora nzira isingawirirane. Iko "kuratidzwa" kwemari neCentral Banks kunoita kunge kwakakurudzira kudzokororwa kwemisika yemasheya. Nekudaro, kune akawanda manzwi anomutswa achinyevera nezveasingawanzo uye kunyange asina musoro eaya maitiro ekuwedzera. Kana zvisiri, mamwe matunhu anoita kunge apora zvirinani pane zvaitarisirwa, uye mamwe haana kunyanyisa. Iyi fomu yekupora zvakatungamira vamwe vaongorori kufanotaura kuti kupora kunenge kwakafanana neK, uye kwete muL, V, kana nemavara akasiyana-siyana ealfabheti akataurwa kuti atsanangure kuti zvaizouya sei. Mune fomu yeK, inoitirwa kutsanangura iyo polarity ichave iripo pakati pezvikamu, mumwe wevakakunda iri tekinoroji chikamu. Asi iko kupora uku ndekwechokwadi here?

Vazhinji vatengesi, vese vaongorori vehunyanzvi uye vaongorori vakakosha, vanoshaya mamwe maitiro eimwe boka remasheya. Izvi ndezve zvimwe zvakaita se Zoom Vhidhiyo Kutaurirana, iyo kuwedzera kwayo kubva pakutanga kwegore iyo kukosha kwayo yaive $ 68 yakasvika mazuva mashoma apfuura $ 478 pachikamu, kuwedzera kweanopfuura mazana matanhatu muzana chete. Mumwe muenzaniso wakanaka anga ari Tesla, ane stock yakabva pamadhora makumi masere nemasere pakutanga kwegore (Split inosanganisirwa) kutengesa kupfuura $ 600 mazuva mashoma apfuura, kukwira mazana mashanu muzana. Chii chirikuitika? Vangave vanogona kunge vari ivo vakundi kana ivo vakawedzeredzwa? Pasina kuenda mukuwongorora zvemari kwemakambani ane musika wemasheya mashandiro anga ari pamusoro pevhareji, tinogona kusarudza kuva nepfungwa yakati wandei yepasi rese yekuti misika iripi. Kune izvi isu tinoshandisa iyo «Buffet Index», yatichataura nezvayo nhasi.

Chii chinonzi Buffet Index?

Tsananguro yeicho chinonzi buffet index

MaIndices akakosha kwazvo muUnited States anozivikanwa kunharaunda yese yekudyara. Pakati pavo tine Nasdaq 100, iyo inosanganisira zana zana akakosha kwazvo muindasitiri yehunyanzvi, iyo Dow Jones Industrial Avhareji 100, inoyera shanduko yemakambani makuru makumi matatu ehuruzhinji, uye S&P 30, kwange kuri kunyanya mumiriri wehupfumi hweNorth America uye mapoka mazana emakambani makuru mazana mashanu. Nekudaro, kune mamwe madhairekisheni asingazivikanwe zvakanyanya, asi zvisina kukosha pane izvozvo. Iyo indekisi pane iyo fomula yekubvisa iyo Buffet index yakasara iri Wilshire 30 index.

Iyo Wilshire 5000 ndiyo indekisi iyo makambani ese anozivikanwa akanyorwa, kusasanganisa maADR, makambani mashoma uye makambani madiki. Inogona kuwanikwa pasi pechikwekwe "W5000". Iyo Wilshire, yakave zvakare neakajeka kupora senge ayo akafanana. Zvese izvi mune mamiriro apo kusungwa, kumiswa muzvitoro, uye mhirizhonga yezvehupfumi nekuda kwekukanganisa kwe "zvakasikwa" kutenderera kwehupfumi kwakakanganiswa. Zviitiko zvese izvi zvakashandurwa mumadhora akakosha uye asingatarisire mu GDP yehupfumi hwakasiyana.

Mhosva yekusarudzika inotinetsa muchinyorwa chino uye yakaseta maalarm ndeyekuti iyo Buffet index, iyo inoyera chiyero chemari yakazara yeWilshire 5000 kuenda kuGDP (Gross Yemumba Chigadzirwa) yeUnited States iri pamatanho akakwirira zvakanyanya. Nekudaro, iyi indekisi yakashanda kusvika nhasi sekufungidzira kukuru kweakakomba zvakanyanya pamusika wemasheya. Semuenzaniso, kukosha kukuru kwaakatora mu dot-com bubble. Kuti tinzwisise, ngatione kuti inoverengwa sei.

Iyo Buffet Index inoverengerwa sei?

Maitiro ayo Buffet Index Akaverengerwa

Maitiro akaverengerwa iyo Buffet Index iri nyore chaizvo. Ndezvekutora iyo yakazara capitalization kukosha kweWilshire 5000 uye kuigovanisa neUS GDP. Iyo inoguma nhamba ndeye muzana kutaura kwehukama hwataurwa, uye kuhuratidzira seperesenti, ndiyo nzira yazvinonyatsopihwa, inowedzerwa ne100.

Kuti tidudzire mhedzisiro, tinofanirwa nzwisisa izvo chikamu ichi chiri kutiudza isu. Kuve negwara uye / kana chirevo, hukama hunotevera hwaringana.

  • A muzana isingasviki 60-55%. Zvingareva izvozvo mabhegi akadhura. Iyo yakaderera muzana, iyo yakanyanya iko kushomeka kukosha kwavanayo.
  • Chikamu chakatenderedza 75%. Hazvidhuri kana kudhura, ndiyo avhareji yenhoroondo. Musika wacho unenge wakaenzana. Kana nharaunda iri yakanaka, masheya anogona kuve nerwendo rwekumusoro mune ino mamiriro. Kune rimwe divi, kana nharaunda ikawedzera kuvengana, mitengo yakaderera yaigona kuitika.
  • Chikamu chakakura kupfuura 90-100%. Kune avo vanosarudza mutsetse wema90, uye vamwe mutsetse zana.Asi ingadzikiswe sei, mune zviitiko izvi mabhegi anotanga kuita anodhura. Iyo yakakwira iyo muzana, ivo vanonyanya kukoshesa ivo vari.

Pakaitika tsaona yedot com, masheya aive pa137% uye akawira ku73% (yayo yepakati nhoroondo isu taigona kutaura). Mune dambudziko remari, masheya aive akakomberedza 105% uye akawira ku57% (kureva kuti, aisakosheswa).

Mushure mekufungidzira… Tiri kupi zvino?

Ndeipi misika yemasheya epasi rose angaenda?

IWilshire 5000 ine mari yemari iripo yemadhora zviuru makumi matatu nezvitatu zvemadhora. Mazuva mashoma apfuura akatoisa mari pamusoro pe34 trillion! Izvi mukutarisa kweiyo GDP yeUSA iyo parizvino iri nekuda kwekudonha kwehupfumi mune 36 trillion inotipa kukosha kwe174% (34 trillion yakakamurwa ne19 trillion yakawedzerwa ne5). Iko stock exchanges yakakurisa here? Mhinduro a priori uye pasina mubvunzo ichava hongu. Hazvina kumbobvira zvaitika, kana mu dot-com bubble pamwe nekukosheswa kwaro kwakatenderedza 137%, ivo vakasvika kune razvino rekodhi re174%. Chii chiri kuitika uye chii chatinogona kutarisira?

Kutaura chokwadi, mushure memakore ekuziva ruzivo, dzimwe nguva zvinonetsa kufungidzira zvichaitika, asi pazvinoitika, takagara tiine kwatinotarisa. Izvo zvinokwanisika kuti iyo Buffet index iri kutinyevera, senge pazviitiko zvakapfuura, zvenguva yemberi yemusika wemari. Nekudaro, kuonekera kwechizvarwa chitsva chevashambadziri uye vanofungidzira, parizvino inozivikanwa seRobinhood nekuda kwekuonekwa kwemaapps anotendera kudyara nemitengo yakaderera, neimwe nzira kuumba mamiriro emari emisika. Izvi, zvakawedzerwa mukuwandisa kwemari kumisika uye hupfumi neCentral Banks, zvakare zvinomutsa kutya kwekudzoka kwemitengo, iyo, kana yaendeswa kune hupfumi, ichawedzera mitengo, zvichideredza hukama pakati peGDP nemari. .


Izvo zviri muchinyorwa zvinoomerera pamisimboti yedu ye tsika dzekunyora. Kuti utaure chikanganiso tinya pano.

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  1. Inotarisira iyo data: Miguel Ángel Gatón
  2. Chinangwa cheiyo data: Kudzora SPAM, manejimendi manejimendi.
  3. Legitimation: Kubvuma kwako
  4. Kutaurirana kwedata
  5. Dhata yekuchengetedza: Dhatabhesi inobatwa neOccentus Networks (EU)
  6. Kodzero: Panguva ipi neipi iwe unogona kudzora, kupora uye kudzima ruzivo rwako