Kana misika yequity iri kuratidzwa nechimwe chinhu parizvino, semhedzisiro yemhedzisiro yecoronavirus, imhaka yekunyanyisa kwavo kusagadzikana. Kusvika padanho rekuti imwe yekutengesa chikamu, maindices anogona kukoshesa ne4% kuti vasiye zvakafanana zuva rinotevera. Nenzira iyi, zvakaoma kwazvo kushandira varimari vadiki nepakati, kunyanya kana vachida kunongedza mamwe mazwi akareba. Pasina yakatsanangurwa maitiro mumisika yemasheya kutenderera pasirese, kunze kwenguva pfupi uye saka yakanangana nekutengesa mashandiro anoda akasiyana makanika mukufamba kwavo.
Mukati meiyi panorama yakaoma iyo misika yemari iripo panguva ino, ndiyo nguva yekutarisa kuti kusagadzikana mumisika yemari chii chaizvo. Nekuti iri zano rekudyara rinotsanangurwa muzana uye rinoverengerwa sekutsauka kwekuti pfuma (masheya, mari, nezvimwewo) inonyoresa zvine chekuita nepakati pemutengo wayo wenhoroondo mune yakatarwa nguva. Nemusiyano unooneka kwazvo muchikamu chekutengesera pakati pemutengo wayo wepamusoro uye wepasi uye izvo zvinopfuura kupfuura zvakajairwa mune izvi zviitiko.
Kuti ushande mumusika wemasheya nekusagadzikana, hapana mubvunzo kuti munhu anofanirwa kuve nekudzidza kwakakura murudzi urwu rwekushanda. Havasi vese investor vanogona kuvhura zvinzvimbo mune mamiriro eaya maitiro nekuti anogona kurasikirwa nemari yakawanda munzira munzira mune yega yega mashandiro. Zvirinani, pane kuti, zvinoda hunyanzvi hwakajeka pane chikamu chevashandisi mumusika wemasheya kuyedza kushandisa zvakanyanya mari yavo inowanikwa mune dzakakosha nguva iyo iyo misika yequity inopa. Iko, uye kuti tizvinzwisise pachedu zvirinani, chero chinhu chingaitika nemucheto iwoyo wekutsauka mumitengo yemidziyo yemari.
Stock market kushanduka: zvikonzero
Mhedzisiro yeyekupedzisira Yunivhesiti yeMichigan manzwiro ongororo Zvinoshamisa kuti, muzana yevakabvunzwa vanoona ramangwana rakajeka rehupfumi hwavo mukati memakore mashanu yasvika nyowani-dzese-nguva dzakakwira. Iko kukanganisa kwekunzwa kwemushandirapamwe wakakura weFed kunoratidzika kunge kuri kubudirira maererano nekugona kwayo kugonesa (vasina ruzivo).
Sarudzo yeSpain ndeimwe yeakashomeka indices dzeupfumi hukuru, iwo akatorazve zvishoma mu post-crash-COVID rally neaya akarasikirwa zvakanyanya mumazuva apfuura. Ichokwadi kuti iwe wasvika iyo yekutanga tarisiro nhanho yedonhwe uye ikozvino unogona kutora iyo uptrend kune zvishoma rubatsiro kubva kumisika yekutengesa pasi rose. Pane zvinopesana, kana kutengesa kuchisimba, zvichave zvakakosha kunyatso tarisa zvinotsigirwa mareferenzi, kana zvikavabaya pamitengo yekuvhara zvaizovhura inoshushikana uye nerima mamiriro epakati nepakati refu.
Nei uchiisa mari mukusagadzikana?
Kuve nekunzwisisa kwakanaka kwekuti kusagadzikana chii uye mashandisiro anoita zviridzwa zvakakosha kuti ubudirire kufamba nekudyara munzvimbo iri kukura yekusagadzikana. Zvimwe zvinhu zvakadai sekushomeka zvinogona kupa varimi sosi yakakosha yekudyara kusiyanisa, kubatsira kuwedzera mashandiro epotifoliyo, uye kupa kuwirirana kwakaderera nezvinhu zvechinyakare.
Chii chinonzi volatility? Kutanga, ngatinzwisise zvinorehwa nevanhu kana totaura nezvekusagadzikana.
Yakagadziriswa Volatility
Kuziva kusagadzikana chiero chekusagadzikana kwenhoroondo. Uku ndiko kusagadzikana kwakanyatsoitika kare, asi kuverenga inguva-inoenderana, iyo inogona kuvhiringidza. Semuenzaniso, kuona kusagadzikana kunogona kureva kudzoka kwemazuva ese kwemazuva gumi apfuura, kudzoka kwemwedzi kwegore rapfuura, kana kudzoka kwegore kwegumi gumi apfuura. Vatengesi vanowanzo taura zvakatemerwa-makumi matatu-mazuva vakaona kusagadzikana.
Zvinoreva kusagadzikana
Zvinoreva kusagadzikana ndiyo misika yekusarudzika inotarisira kusagadzikana kwenguva yakati rebei mune ramangwana, inowanzo kuratidzwa mumitemo yegore negore. Nepo kugadzikana kwakatarwa kuchionekwa kubva pamitengo yemitengo yezvakaitika kare, zvinoreva kusagadzikana kuri kutarisira uye kunoverengwa kubva pamitengo yesarudzo. Ichi ndicho chiyero chekusagadzikana icho chiri pasi peiyo VIX Index, pamwe nechiyero chinotariswa nevanhu kutengesa.
Chii chinonzi VIX?
Iyo VIX indekisi ndiyo inonyanya kufarirwa chiyero chekureva kusagadzikana. Kunyanya, iyo inoreva kusagadzikana mune imwe portfolio yeS & P 500 yemazuva makumi matatu index index. Kazhinji inonzi "yekutya index" kana kungoti "iyo VIX," indekisi inomiririra tarisiro yemusika wekusagadzikana kwemasheya. Nepo iyo VIX index pachayo isingatengeki, index ramangwana rinopa varimi uye mahedger kutadza kwakakwana kune index. VIX ramangwana rinomiririra rakanakisa pamwe fungidziro mumusika nezve kukosha kweiyo VIX index pakukura.
Kudzoka kunobva kupi? Zvakanakira kuisa mari mukusagadzikana zvinobva munzvimbo mbiri dzakasiyana asi dzakabatana.
Volatility Risk Premium (VRP)
Iyo volatility risk premium ndiyo premium inobhadharwa nemahedger pamusoro pekuziva kusagadzikana kweS & P 500 index sarudzo.Primiyamu inotorwa kubva kune mahedger avo vanobhadhara kuchengetedza ma portfolio avo, uye inoratidzwa mune musiyano uripakati pemutengo unotengeswa sarudzo (zvinoreva kusagadzikana) uye kusagadzikana uko S & P 500 inozoona (kuziva kusagadzikana).
Futures Risk Premium (FRP)
Iyo VIX yeramangwana njodzi premium ndiyo yekuwedzera mari iyo mahedger anobhadharira ramangwana reVIX pamusoro peiyo VIX index pachayo. Iyi premium inowanzo kunzi "gwapa", uye inogona kuoneka mune zvinoitika zvenguva yakareba yeVIX ramangwana rekutengesa pamutengo wekutanga kuVIX Index.
Kuisa mari mukusagadzikana inzira yekutengesa imwe inishuwarenzi. Kuisa mari mukusagadzikana hakufanirwe kuvhiringidzika nekusagadzikana kwekukomba. Sewe iwe unobhadhara mari yeinishuwarenzi kuchengetedza imba yako kubva kukuvara, vatori vechikamu vemusika vanobhadhara mari yekusagadzikana kudzivirira pamusika. Kunge makambani einishuwarenzi, varairidzi vasina kugadzikana vanogona kugara vachikohwa iyi premium.
Izvo zvakakosha kuti urangarire kuti makambani einishuwarenzi anoitawo muripo mushure mezviitiko zvakashata, uye varimi mune yekusagadzikana nhandare vanogona kusangana nekuderera kwakafanana panguva yekukwirisa kwepamusoro. Nechikonzero ichi, kuisa mari mukusagadzikana kunofanirwa kungotariswa kubva pakuona kwenguva refu uye senzira yekusiyana muzvikwata zvetsika. Kunge makambani einishuwarenzi, varairidzi vasina kugadzikana vanotora njodzi yenguva pfupi yekukohwa iyo yenguva refu yengozi.
Chengetedza njodzi
Seizvo zita rinoratidzira, kusagadzikana kudzoka kunogona kuve kwakadzikama munguva dzekupokana kwemusika, uye kutarisira kwenjodzi kwakakodzera kwakakosha mukudyara kubudirira. Pamwe pamwe nekuwongorora kwakanyanya uye kwehunyanzvi kuongorora, heano mamwe akakosha mapoinzi ekuchengeta mundangariro:
Chengetedza maonero erefu
Kuisa mari mukusagadzikana hachisi chirongwa chekufuma-nekukurumidza. Icho chikamu cheasset chinopa njodzi inonakidza uye kudzoreredza chimiro. Kufanana nechero kirasi yeasset, inofanirwa kunyatsoiswa munzvimbo yako yekugoverwa uye kubudiswa kune vehunyanzvi kana usiri kugara uchiongorora.
Dzvanya zvakanaka
Pamusoro pekusiyaniswa kweaseti kugoverwa, kusiyanisa mari yako yekusagadzikana kuburikidza nezvimiro zvetemu, zvigadzirwa zvekushomeka, nzira dzekusagadzikana, uye geographies zvinogona kubatsira kudzoka kwakatsetseka uye kugadzirisa ako akagadziridzwa ane njodzi.
Iva nesimba
Kuti uchengetedze kusagadzikana kwenjodzi uye ramangwana rengozi mukuda kwako, zvakakosha kuti urambe wakarongeka, uchiwedzera mukana wako, uye ude kuchinjira kumari kazhinji uye kazhinji.
Kupararira kwepasi rose kwe COVID-19 kwakatumira misika yepasi rese yemasheya kuita mhirizhonga. Nekuderera kukuru kunoteverwa nemabhiza mahombe zuva nezuva, kusagadzikana rave simba rinogara riripo iro vatyairi vanofanirwa kubata.
Vazhinji vatengesi vari kutsvaga nzira dzekushandura kusagadzikana kuita purofiti. Iyo CBOE Volatility Index, inozivikanwawo seVIX, yave danho rakakosha rekuti varimi vanonzwa sei kuvhunduka, asi varimi varikushandisa bhenji vachishingaira sechikamu chemazano avo ekudyara. Tevere, isu tichaona zvimwe nezve iyo VIX uye nei uchifanira kunzwisisa iro basa rainogona kutamba mune yako portfolio.
Kutengesa iyo VIX
Iyo CBOE Volatility Index inoongorora misika yesarudzo kuti ione kuti vatori vechikamu vemusika wekusagadzikana vanotarisira sei munguva pfupi iri kutevera. Nekutarisa kwakasarudzika kwakasiyana nemitengo yavo, anokwanisa kuverenga huwandu uhwo vashandisi vari kushandisa zvakazara kutungamira yavo sarudzo yekutengesa. Iyo yakakwira iyo nhamba, vanowedzera kusagadzikana vatengesi vanotarisira.
Nekudaro, haufanire kunge uri mutengesi wesarudzo kuti uwane ruzivo rwakakosha kubva kuVIX. Vamwe varimi vanoshevedza iyo VIX iyo Yekutya Index, nekuti inowanzo simuka panguva yekudonha mumisika uye kudzikira panguva dziri nani kumusika wemasheya.
Mafomu ekudyara muVIX
Pamusoro pezvo, varimari vakawana nzira dzekuita mari zvakananga kubva kumafambiro ari muIBOE Volatility Index. Iyo yakashambadzirwa pachena iPath S&P 500 VIX Pfupi-Yechinguva Nguva yemberi inotsvaga kuteedzera iyo VIX nekupinda mune ramangwana zvibvumirano zvakasungirirwa kune kusagadzikana bhenji, uye kubva munaFebruary 20 kusvika Kurume 13, ine kanopfuura katatu.
Kana iwe uine hasha uye semitambo ine njodzi, unogona kuwana kwakawanda kuonekera kune iyo VIX. Iyo ProShares Ultra VIX Pfupi-Yechinguva Nguva ichave inopfuura zvakapetwa zvakapetwa panguva imwechete, nekuti ine mutengo wemugove uyo unotsvaga kupa mukana wekuburitswa ka1,5 nguva kufamba mune ramangwana reVIX.
Izvo izvo muridzi wega wekusagadzikana anofanira kuziva nezvazvo zvinosuwisa, kune njodzi zhinji kana uchitsvaga mukusagadzikana. Zvinosanganisira:
Kuva padivi risiri iro rekutengesa kusagadzikana kunogona kukuvadza kune yako portfolio. Semuenzaniso, ProShares Pfupi VIX Pfupi-yenguva Nguva yemberi yakagadzirirwa kufamba kumusoro kana iyo VIX ichifamba yakaderera. Yakarasikirwa inopfuura hafu kukosha kwayo pakati paFebruary 20 naMarch 13, uye inogona kuona kunyange kurasikirwa kukuru kana kusagadzikana kuchikwira.
Kuzvipira kwekudyara kwakagadzirirwa kuve kwenguva pfupi, nekudzoka kwakasungirwa shanduko dzezuva nezuva muVIX. Kwenguva refu yenguva, kuva nemari dzekudyara dzakasungirwa mukusagadzikana kwave kuri kubheja kunotyisa. Chigadzirwa chePath kusagadzikana, semuenzaniso, chakarasikirwa nemari gore rega kubva 2009 kusvika 2017, chakatumira mari shoma mu2018, ndokuzodzikira nezvikamu zviviri kubva muzvitatu mu2019.
Nekuda kwemagadzirirwo avo, ese marefu uye mapfupi ekudyara kwekudyara anogona kurasikirwa nemutengo nekufamba kwenguva. Kuchinjika kukuru kunogona kufamba kune chero nzira, uye vanogona kukurumidza uye nehasha. Mukutanga kwegore ra2018, zvese zvakatora raive zuva rimwe chete rekuwedzera kusagadzikana kupedzisa pfupi pfupi volatility leveraged fund.
Zvakakodzera njodzi here?
Dzese njodzi idzi dzakaoma kuona kana mitengo yezvinhu zvine hungwaru-yakabatana mari inokwira zuva nezuva. Nekudaro, sekuwanda kwemasheya uye maEF anove anozivikanwa kwenguva pfupi asati adzoka kupasi, kuisa mari mukusagadzikana kunowanzounza nguva refu dzekurasikirwa kunoiswa neapo neapo kuputika kwekubwinya sezvataona nguva pfupi yadarika.
Panguva ino, yakawanda yekusagadzikana kuwana kubva kuTFs kwatoiswa mumitengo yavo. Volatility inogona kuramba ichiwedzera. Zvisinei, apo misika inodzikama, varimi vasina kutsarukana vanozoona nenzira yakaoma kuti mari yavo inogona kudzikira pasi nekukurumidza zvakadii, kunyangwe kana mareti emhando yepamusoro ari kuratidza kukosha kwavo kwenguva refu.
Zita VIX chidimbu che "volatility index." Kuverenga kwayo chaiko kwakaomarara, asi chinangwa chakakosha ndechekuyera kuti varairidzi vasina kugadzikana vanotarisira kuona sei muS & P 500 Index mumazuva makumi matatu anotevera, zvichibva pamitengo yesarudzo dzeS & P 30 Index. Masheya Akadzikama, VIX Low; pavanotarisira shanduko huru mumusika, iyo VIX inokwira kumusoro.
Munguva dzekupokana kukuru mumusika, iyo VIX yakawedzera kusimuka. Iyo chati iri pamusoro inoratidza kuti iyo VIX index yakakwira zvakadzikama apo musika waisvika pamusoro peiyo tech bubble yekupera kwema1990, yakadzikama panguva yekukura kwakasimba nguva ya2003-2007, yakakwidzwa panguva yedambudziko rechikwereti ra2008 uye muhafu yepiri ye 2011, uye yakanyorwa kuwedzera mukutanga uye kunonoka 2018. Nekuda kweiyi maitiro ehunhu, iyo VIX dzimwe nguva inozivikanwa se "yekutya index" - apo vatori vechikamu vemusika vane hanya nemusika, iyo VIX inowanzo simuka.
Volatility inguva yekuita injini isingatsamiri pamutero, zvikamu, kana kukoshesa mutengo, zvichiita kuti ive inokwezva kune vanoita mari vachitsvaga kumwe kudzoka.
Zvigadzirwa zvekushomeka zvine hukama hwakasimba husina kunaka neyakaenzana uye nekudaro wedzera kukosha sevashandisi venzvimbo. Iko kusawirirana kwakashata kweiyo equity kusagadzikana hakungoshandi kune misika yequity, sezvo mapatani akafanana anogona kuwanikwa mumusika wechikwereti. Spikes muchikwereti inopararira kazhinji inoenderana nekuwedzera kusagadzikana mumatokisi.
Kuwedzera pakuve mushambadzi wepodfolio, kusagadzikana kunogona kudzivirira kubva kune dzimwe njodzi. Semuenzaniso, muzvinashawo ane muridzi wemasheya kana remangwana indekisi iyo inogona kukanganisika zvine mutsindo kana zvisina kunaka nechiziviso chiri kuuya anokwanisa kubatirira padura kana ramangwana uye anodzivirira njodzi nekusagadzikana.
Zvakare zvinotsanangurwa mumabhuku, echinyakare akasiyana siyana anopa mashoma mikana yekusiyana panguva yedambudziko remari. Equity volatility, inomiririrwa neVIX, inogona kushanda semusiyano wechisikigo, sezvo kuwirirana kwayo kwakashata nemari uye mamwe makirasi easseti anowedzera panguva yedambudziko. VIX Futures inopa akasiyana siyana mabhenefiti chaizvo paanonyanya kudikanwa. Sezvauri kuona zviri pazasi, kutengesa kusagadzikana kunogona kupa mubayiro wakanyanya. Zvakare, zvakaitika kare, tinogona kuona kuti marongero anoisa mari mukusagadzikana akaunza kudzoka kwepamusoro nekurasikirwa kwakaderera zvichienzaniswa neyakajairwa mapotifomu.