Kuisa mari mugoridhe zvine chekuita ne inflation uye kupihwa mari

Kuisa mari mugoridhe kunobatsira kutidzivirira kubva pakutengesa mitengo uye kusagadzikana kwezvehupfumi kwenguva pfupi

Mazhinji emastock indices kutenderera pasirese akawanazve zvakakwana kana muchidimbu, vamwe vachitoisa marekodhi azvino. Izvo zvikonzero zvikonzero zvinouya kwatiri ndezvekufungidzirwa kwehuwandu hweGDP kukura pakati penyika, kusanganisira mushonga, kukurumidza kugadzirisa, kuti hukama hwekutengeserana pakati penyika huchavandudza, uye zvakadaro pane runyorwa rurefu. Nekudaro, yakamira kuve inobatsira uye inguva yekudyara mune yegoridhe yapfuura?

Chimwe chezvinhu zvakanyanya kufarirwa zvakanyanya nezvendarama ndizvozvo inzvimbo yakanaka yekudzivirira inflation. Kunyange zvirambidzo zvaivepo, vatengesi vazhinji nemaneja vaifungidzira nezve inflation ichauya uye vakapa tsananguro yekusimuka kwegoridhe. Vamwe vanoramba vachimudzivirira, kunyangwe akarasikirwa zvinopfuura gumi muzana kubva kumusoro kwake. Vari kukanganisa here kana kuti chiitiko chinotora nguva yakareba kuti chisvike? Chero nzira, kuva neAce kumusoro sleeve yako haimbove yakaipa pfungwa, uye isu takaona mafambiro kuenda kugoridhe nevashambadzi isu tese tinoziva uye kunyangwe nevamwe vangadai vasina kumbobvira vaisa mari mairi.

Kuisa mari mugoridhe, dambudziko rehukama

maitiro ekuziva kuti ndeipi nguva yakanakisa yekudyara mugoridhe

Nguva zhinji ndakanzwa vanhu vazhinji vachibatanidza goridhe ne inflation. Vamwe vanhu vanopomera maitiro avo pane iya yemusika. Kune avo vanodzivirira kuti goridhe rinozvibata zvinopesana nekukosheswa kwedhora indekisi. Muchidimbu, kunyange hazvo zvisiri izvo zvachose, chokwadi ndechekuti vese vanhu vandakanzwa vanga vakarurama uye kwete panguva imwe chete.

Mhedziso chete yandinogona kutora ndeyangu ndeyekuti zviitiko zvese zvakambotsanangurwa zvinosangana panguva imwe chete. Saka goridhe, rakatarisana nenguva dzekusava nechokwadi, dambudziko, kana inflation inowanzo (asi kwete nguva dzose) kuona mutengo wayo uchinjika. Quote iyo ichave iri pasi pekufarira mune ino simbi nevashambadzi, masangano nemabhangi.

Kuti tiite izvi, tichaona zvinhu zvikuru zvinogona kukanganisa mutengo wako.

Ndarama uye inflation

Girafu yekukwira kwemitengo muUnited States yezana ramakore rapfuura. Inflation yemakore zana apfuura

Ndisati ndaisa chati yegoridhe, ndaida kukoshesa kukwira kwemitengo muUnited States. Sekuona kwedu, isu tine zvimwe zvakakosha. Iyi inotevera kuverenga ndeyekuchengetedza iwe mupfungwa.

  1. Deflation. Yero bhokisi. Makumi emakumi makumi maviri nemakumi matatu.Pakati peiyi chinguva, tinogona kuona kuti deflation yakaonekwa sei.
  2. Inflation yakakura kudarika gumi muzana. Mabhokisi eGreen. Tine nguva nhatu. Kusimbisa iyo nguva kubva pakutanga nekupera kwemakore neepamusoro soro marefu.
  3. Kuwedzera kwezvinhu pasi pe5%. Tine mipata mitatu mikuru. Yokutanga yavo ndeyepfungwa yekutanga, iyo yeDeflation.

Chii chinoitika kana mutengo wegoridhe wakagadziriswa kune inflation?

Inflation-yakagadziriswa chati yegoridhe. Nguva dzakanakisa dzekudyara mugoridhe

Dhata yakawanikwa kubva macrotrends.net

Nekuda kwekuwedzera kwemitengo, iyo mitengo yezvinhu zvese inowanzo kukwira mukufamba kwenguva. Ndarama haina kusara, uye nekuda kweichi chikonzero ino girafu pamusoro yakagadziridzwa kune inflation. Ndokunge, kukosha kwakadii kungave kuti ounce regoridhe raive naro munguva yakapfuura maererano nemutengo wedhora nhasi. Kana isu ikozvino tichitarisa iyo yakajairwa chati yegoridhe (isina kufumurwa kuti isazopfuuridza pamusoro), isu tichaona kuwanda kukuru kwayo. Tichaongorora akakosha mapoinzi nezvazvo.

  • Inflationary nguva. Iyo nguva isati yasvika yekubhuroka kwesystem yakabvumiranwa paBretton Woods, goridhe inoratidza kudzikira kweyemukati kukosha kwayo paive ne inflation. Zvisinei, Iine hurongwa hwehupfumi hwekuchinja-shanduka kwemitengo, inflation inoenderana pamwe nekukwira kwemutengo wegoridhe. Izvo zvinofanirwa zvakare kuwedzerwa kuti iyo Bretton Woods system yakaputswa nekudhinda kukuru kwemadhora ekutsigira Hondo yeVietnam. Kutevera zvirevo kubva kuFrance neGreat Britain kuti vashandure mari yavo yemadhora kuita goridhe uye yakaderedza matura egoridhe eUS Chirevo, chinova chinhu chose, change chakasiyana neicho chazvino
  • Nguva dzekupesana. Munguva idzi nguva goridhe rakawedzera mukukosha. Nekudaro, mushure mekushaikwa kwemari kwakakonzerwa nekudonha kweLehman Brothers pakave nenguva pfupi umo deflation yakaonekwa uye goridhe rakawedzera kukosha. Nekudaro, chikonzero chekukwira uku chiri chakapembedzwa kuti chakakurudzirwa nedambudziko rezvehupfumi uye kusavimbika kukuru kubhangi system pane kuderedzwa pachako.
  • Nguva dze inflation zvine mwero. Mushure mekunge dot-com bubble raputika, goridhe rakaita mushe, zvisinei hazvo harina kuita zvakanaka mumakore apfuura. Ichi chikonzero chingangodaro chinokurudzirwa mukutsvaga kwegoridhe senzvimbo yakachengeteka yekutandarira.

Ndarama mhedziso ine inflation

Kana mutengo wegoridhe ukawedzera muzvikamu zvemazana pamusoro pe inflation, zvinobatsira kuisa mari mairi (chirevo ichi "neezvebezi"!). Kunyange chiri chokwadi kuti yega senzvimbo yakanaka mukufamba kwenguva, zvishuwo zvemumwe muridzi wemari zvinogona kunge zvisiri kure zvakanyanya munguva. Naizvozvo, kuisa mari mugoridhe panguva yeshanduko dzakasimba sarudzo yakanaka. Kana iwe zvakare uchiita intuit kana shanduko idzi dzichizoitika uye iwe woisa mari zvisati zvaitika, zvidzoreso zvinogona kuwanikwa zvinogutsa zvikuru.

Mhedziso ndeyekuti mukutarisana nenguva dzakanyanya inflation, goridhe inogona kuva utiziro hwakanaka. Uye zvakare, mamiriro ezvinhu mune hupfumi hwepasi rose anofarira kufarira kukuru mairi. Pari zvino Hatisi kutarisana nemitengo yakakwira yekukwira kwemitengo, asi isu tiri kutarisana nemamiriro ezvinhu asingafungidzike ehupfumi ekupedzisira mhedzisiro yedambudziko riripo.

Nyaya inoenderana:
Goridhe Sirivha Ratio

Misa yeMari Ndeipi basa raunokuridzira kuisa mari mugoridhe?

Mari yese inowanikwa mumadhora yakawedzera nechinyorwa muna 2020

Dhata yakawanikwa kubva fred.stlouisfed.org

Iko kupihwa kwemari, mune macroeconomics, ndiyo huwandu hwese hwemari hunowanikwa kutenga zvinhu, masevhisi kana kuchengetedzwa kwekuchengetedza. Inowanikwa nekuwedzera iyo mari mumaoko eruzhinji pasina kupinda mumabhangi (mabhiri nemari) nemabhengi ekuchengetedza. Huwandu hwezvinhu zviviri izvi hwaro hwemari (isu tichataura gare gare). Iyo Monetary Base yakawedzeredzwa neyemari yekuwedzera ndeyeMari yeMisa.

Mugirafu yekutanga iwe uchaona kuti Mass yeMari yakawedzera sei zvakanyanya. MunaNdira 2020 yaive 15 trillion emadhora, parizvino huwandu uhu hwawedzera kusvika pa3 trillion emadhora. Misa yeMari mumadhora yakawedzera ne 3 trillion muna 8, ndiko kuti, 2020%!

Zvichienderana nehukama ne inflation, monetarist mutemo unobata kuti pane hukama pakati pehuwandu hwemari mukutenderera nemitengo mune hupfumi. Kune rimwe divi, dzidziso yeKeynesian inoti hapana hukama pakati pekuwedzera kwemari nemari, kunyanya kana hupfumi hukura. Saka kuyedza kutsvaga chimwe chinhu, ngatitarisei kuhukama nemari yemari.

Goridhe Ratio neMonetary Base

hwaro hwemari hauna kumira kuwedzera mumakore gumi nematatu apfuura

Dhata yakawanikwa kubva kuna fred.stlouisfed.org

Tinogona kuona kuti sei Monetary Base yakawedzera zvakanyanya. Kunyanya semhedzisiro ye "helikopta mari" marongero.

Ukaona iri girafu ziva kuti zvinonetsa kuenderera seizvi kwenguva refu pasina shanduko. Kana pamwe zvimwe zvinhu zvisinganzwisisike zvakaonekwa. Nechikonzero ichi, kana pasina kuwedzera kwemitengo uye mushure mekusakwanisa kuwana zvakawanda nehukama hwegoridhe ine inflation, pamwe kutsvaga hukama nehupfumi hwemari kwaisazove kusanzwisisika. (Tichifunga mupfungwa kuti hatigone kukwevera hukama pakati peye inflation nemari, sezvakataurwa naKeynes).

Girafu inotevera inotarisirwa kunge ichiratidza zvakanyanya. Iyo inotiratidza ratidziro iri pakati pegoridhe nemari yemari.

Girafu remari yegoridhe reshiyo yekuziva kana goridhe rakadzikiswa kana kwete

Girafu inowanikwa kubva macrotrends.net

Mapoinzi akati wandei anogona kusimbiswa:

  1. Sezvinoonekwa, kudhinda mari hombe kwakakonzera kuti reshiyo iderere zvakanyanya pakati pa1960 na1970 (nekuda kweHondo yeVietnam, sezvakakurukurwa pakutanga).
  2. Kuwedzera kwezvinhu kwakadzinga mutengo wegoridhe mumakore anotevera, asi Kusava nechokwadi kwakatyaira uye ndokuwedzera kubatsira kukwira kwemutengo waro, inosvika pakakwirira kwazvo pamusoro peyero. (Unofanirwa kuwedzera x10 uye nekuwedzera mutengo wazvino wegoridhe kuti uwane ratio ye5 sekusvikwa kwayakaitwa).
  3. Iko kuwedzera kwesisekelo chemari kubvira dambudziko remari rakamutsa (uye kutiza) kuderera kweiyo ratidziro isina kumboonekwa kare.
  4. Parizvino, tengesa yakakwira muyero wegoridhe kune hwaro hwemari, iyo yave ichinyanya kubatsira. Nenzira imwecheteyo, kuisa mari mugoridhe iyo yakadzikira chikamu, iro rakakura ramangwana zvayakapa.

Mhedziso yegoridhe ine hwaro hwemari

Chete kana goridhe rakadzoserwa pamatanho azvino kuti rienzane nemari iripo, iyo nzira yekumusoro yaingave iri inopfuura 100%. Kana Ratio ichienda ku1, kungave nekuda kwekutya inflation, matambudziko akasimba anoperekedzwa nenguva dzekusava nechokwadi, nezvimwewo, tinogona kuzviwana tisati tamboitika mune goridhe. Zvinopokana nekuti mutengo wayo wakasvika -se-nguva dzakakwirira nguva pfupi yadarika, asi saizvozvowo hwaro hwemari.

Mhedziso mhedzisiro yekuti isarudzo yakanaka yekudyara mugoridhe

Iko hakuna imwechete yekuyera modhi yekuona iyo chaiyo nguva yekudyara mugoridhe. Nekudaro, isu takakwanisa kuona kuti sei inflation, hwaro hwemari uye dambudziko zvinokanganisa mu. Mamiriro acho ese, muchidimbu. Uye zvakare, hupfumi hunhu, uye muzvinashawo akanaka anofanira kuzvibvunza kuti tiripi. Zvakare kuti ndizvo zvinonyanya kuitika.


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  1. Inotarisira iyo data: Miguel Ángel Gatón
  2. Chinangwa cheiyo data: Kudzora SPAM, manejimendi manejimendi.
  3. Legitimation: Kubvuma kwako
  4. Kutaurirana kwedata
  5. Dhata yekuchengetedza: Dhatabhesi inobatwa neOccentus Networks (EU)
  6. Kodzero: Panguva ipi neipi iwe unogona kudzora, kupora uye kudzima ruzivo rwako