Can US equities inogona kuramba ichirova nyowani nyowani muna 2020? Uyu ndeimwe yemibvunzo iyo varimari vadiki nepakati varimi vanga vachikumbira kwegore idzva. Mhinduro kubva kune vanoongorora zvemari dzakasiyana hadzifanane uye zviitiko zvakasiyana zvinomuka uchienzaniswa nemusika wekutanga wemasheya pasi. Nezvikonzero zvinosangana pamwe pasina vashandisi vemusika wemasheya vanotarisira kupinda mumusika wezvemari mumwedzi iri kuuya vaine mhinduro yekongiri.
Iko hakuna vashoma vaongorori vanotarisira kuti US stock stock icha akabata siringi kana chiitiko ichi chiri padyo chaizvo. Nepo vamwe vari vekufunga kuti ichi chiri pachena uptrend icho chichagara kanenge mamwe mashoma makore. Chero zvazvingaitika, pane chinhu chimwe chakagadziriswa kune vanoita mari uye ikozvino zvave kunonoka kwavari kuti vapinde munzvimbo dzeiyi inokosha misika yemari. Kuve wakarasikirwa nezvikamu zvakanyanya zvekuwedzera zveiyi kusimuka. Iko kwavakakwanisa kuita mashandiro ane purofiti nepamusoro kupfuura 0%, chimwe chinhu chakange chisati chaitika kwemakore mazhinji.
Chimwe chinhu chekutarisa panguva ino ndeye zvakajeka kusiyana iyo inoratidza kuenzana kweUSA neiyo yekondinendi yakare. Nekuti kunyangwe iri mune yekutanga iri kusimukira mune dzese nguva dzekugara muEuropean, inofamba pasi pechimiro chekutenderera kwemwedzi yakawanda uye izvo zvinodzivirira mafambiro kubva mukugadzirwa kuitira kuti zviwanikwa zvikuru zvemari zviwanikwe. Kuve nekuzvimisikidza pachako kune mafambiro epasi penzvimbo uye nemari isingatarisirwe nechakanaka chikamu chevadiki nepakati varimi.
US Stock Exchange: Unogona Kuenda Kupi?
Ichokwadi panguva ino ndechekuti misika yemusika weAmerica haiwani zvinodzivirira pakukwira kwayo kukuru. Uine kutenga kumanikidza izvo zvakakunda mutengesi nekusimba zvisingawanzoonekwa mumisika yemari uye izvo zvakatungamira kunzvimbo zhinji kuvhurwa mumakore apfuura. Kusvika pakuti patova nekushomeka kushoma kumberi mune kungave iko kwekupedzisira kumusoro kumusoro kwemusika wekutanga wezvemari munyika. Zvisinei nemitero yemazuva ano yakatemerwa United States kuBrazil, Argentina neFrance uye izvo zvakagadzira kururamisa kwakasimba mumasheya makuru epasi rese.
Kune rimwe divi, zvinofanirwa kucherechedzwa kuti panguva ipi neipi maitiro aya anogona kupera uye nepfungwa iyi zvichave zvakafanira kunyatsoteerera kune ekutanga zviratidzo zvinopihwa nemisika yekutengesa iyi. Nekuti isu tinosimbirira kuti zvigadziriswe zvinogona kuitiswa zvine simba uye uyezve kupfuura dzimwe nguva nekuda kweakasarudzika maficha eUS aripo panguva ino chaiyo. Uye izvo zvinoitika kuva imwe yeanonyanya kukurudzira pasirese. Iko varimari vakakwanisa kuita kuti mari yavo yavakadyara ibatsire neinenge 100%. Mune mamwe mazwi, nguva yakanakisa yezvido zvevashandisi vemusika wemasheya.
Kusvikira Trump yataura
Imwe yemafungidziro anobatwa mumisika yemari yeUS ndeyekuti musika wekutengesa unenge uchikwidziridzwa kusvika sarudzo dzemutungamiri wenyika dzaitwa munyika muno uye apo Donald Trump achasarudza temu yake yechipiri. Muchokwadi, ndechimwe cheakanyanya kubudirira mumusoro weWhite House kubvira paakatanga kudhura, musika weAmerican stock haumire kusimuka kusvika zvino. Ichi ndicho chimwe cheakakunda zvikuru muhutungamiriri, uye iwe haudi kudzikira kweminiti yekupedzisira mumusika wemasheya kuti ukuvadze kusarudzazve kwako. Kubva pakuona uku, hakuna vashoma vaongorori vezvemari vasingatyi kudzikira kwemitengo yezvikamu munguva ino yesarudzo.
Mutungamiri weAmerica achaita zvese zvinobvira kuitira kuti chinzvimbo chemusika wemari chienderere mberi sezvazviri ikozvino. Pasina kutonga kunze kuti isu tinogona kudzokera kunorekodha yakakwira muUS stock indices. Ehezve, havachave kushamisika kune vadiki nevepakati varimari uye unenge uri wekupedzisira mukana kutora chinzvimbo mune izvi zvemari midziyo kuitira kuti uwane pundutso uye ugone kuwana mabhenefiti anogona kuve 10% kana 20% zvichienderana pane kuwedzera kunogona kuitika kubva ikozvino. Mune izvo zvinogona kugadziridzwa semagumo enzvimbo yekumusoro iyo isina kumbove neimwe yakaenzana nguva mune dzimwe nhoroondo dzakaitika.
Zvinangwa zve2020
Chero zvazvingaitika, chimwe chezvinangwa zvevashambadzi vadiki nepakati panguva ino kuyedza kuunganidza purofiti sarudzo dzemutungamiri wenyika muUnited States dzisati dzaitika. Naizvozvo, mashandiro anofanirwa kuitwa nekukasira muchikamu chekutanga chegore rino, nekuti muchikamu chechipiri, kusagadzikana kunogona kuva dhinomineta mumitengo yezvivakwa zvavo. Pamwe hapachina mimwe mikana yekuburitsa izvi zvemari zvinowanikwa mumusika weAmerican stock. Kana zvisiri, pane kudaro, isu tinogona kuenda kubva zvakajeka uptrend kuenda kune imwe bearish mune pfupi pfupi nzvimbo yenguva. Naizvozvo, chenjera kwazvo nenzvimbo refu kubva zvino zvichienda mberi.
Hazvishamisi kuti njodzi mukushanda dziri kuwedzera nekuda kwemitengo inosvika kumusoro uye kwakakwira marevhuru. Mupfungwa iyi, hazvigone kukanganwika kuti kurwara kwekumusoro ndeimwe yevavengi vakuru vemisika yemari iyi. Kusvika padanho rekuti zvinogona kuitika kuti varimari vanotora zvinzvimbo mumusika wezvemari vanogona kukochekedzwa pazvichengetedzo. Ndokunge, kure kwazvo nemitengo yezvinhu zvekutenga uye nekudaro nezvinetso kuita mafambiro anobatsira mumusika wemasheya.
American kana European Stock Exchange
Kubva pane iyi nzira, zvakajairika kuti varimi vazeze pakati pekudyara muEuropean equities kana, zvinopesana, kuenderera mune yeAmerica. Ichokwadi kuti yekutanga inogona kunge yakachipa pari zvino, asi mamiriro ehunyanzvi ongororo haana kunakira zvido zvevashandisi. Kunyangwe kune rimwe divi, njodzi dzakaderera sezvo isina kuvandudza kuwedzera kwakapinza senge kuUS. Kubva pane ino maonero, hapana mubvunzo kuti panogona kuve nekuchinjiswa munzvimbo dzekuchengetedza panguva ino uye mumwedzi inotevera. Sevashandi vemari vari kutanga kuita kwemwedzi mishoma.
Nekudaro, iwe haugone kukanganwa nezve sarudzo yemisika inozivikanwa seimwe nzira uye ingave iri iyo inopa yakanak kudzoka. Kwete mumisika yese, asi chete mune dzakanyanya kusimba idzo dziripo muChina neIndia. Kunyangwe izvo zvigadziriso mumitengo hapana mubvunzo kuti zvichawedzera kusimba kubva zvino zvichienda mberi, asi kuti zvinogona kushandiswa kutenga masheya nemutengo unokwikwidza. Asi mukupedzisira, yakawandisa yekuongorora mikana ichawanikwa, zvirinani munguva ipfupi nepakati.
Andbank Spain ine chekuita nenyaya iyi umo "inogamuchirwa kuti ione kuti iyo dziite Zvave zvichikonzerwa nekuwedzera kwemazhinji (sub-optimimal mamiriro), asi kunyangwe iyo S&P inogona kunge ichidhura zvine hukama neiyo mariZvinoratidzika zvakajeka kuti zvakachipa zvine chekuita nezvisungo; iyo inopa IRR ye1.75%, nepo equity ichipa IRR ye5.26%, ichiyerwa nekutendeuka kwePER.
Senge zvese, ndinongovimba kuti ndapindura mubvunzo nenzira inogutsa ”. Kusarudza kuti misika yemari muUS ichaenderera ichikwira kumusoro mugore rinotevera.
Mashoma mashandiro pamusika wekutengesa wepasirese
Mukati meiyi mamiriro epasi rese, zvinofanirwa kucherechedzwa kuti maSpanish equities achataura gore nekumwe kudzikira mukuita kwavo, zvinoenderana nedhata rakapihwa neBolsas y Mercados de España (BME). Iko kunoratidzwa kuti kufamba mumusika wemasheya kwakasvika mugove wemusika mu kondirakiti yekuchengetedzwa kweSpanish kwe77,09% muna Mbudzi. Ivhareji renji yaive 4,88 hwaro poindi mumutengo wekutanga mutengo (17,7% zvirinani pane inotevera yekutengesa nzvimbo) uye 6,61 hwaro poindi, nekudzika kwema25.000 euros mubhuku rekuraira (43,9, XNUMX% zvirinani), sekuzvimiririra LiquidMetrix chirevo.
Chero zvazvingaitika, izvi zviyero zvinosanganisira kutengesa kunoitwa munzvimbo dzekutengesera, zvese zviri pachena bhuku reodha (LIT), kusanganisira maokisheni, uye kutengeserana kusiri pachena (rima) yakagadzirwa kubva mubhuku. Panguva yechikamu chayo, kushambadzira mune yakamisirwa mari munguva ino kwakaenzana ne24.965 mamirioni euros munaNovember. Iyi nhamba inomiririra kuwedzera kwe0,9% zvichienzaniswa nevhoriyamu yakanyoreswa mwedzi wapfuura. Yakazara kondirakiti yakaunganidzwa mugore yakasvika 319.340 mamirioni euros, zvinoreva kukura kwe67% zvine chekuita nemwedzi yekutanga gumi nerimwe ye2018.