Mndandanda wa Buffet

Mndandanda wa Buffet ukuyembekeza kuchepa m'misika

Pambuyo pamavuto omwe akumenya komanso kumira GDP yamayiko onse, masheya akuwoneka kuti atenga njira yotsutsana. "Maonekedwe" azandalama aku Central Banks akuwoneka kuti alimbikitsa kuyambiranso kwa misika yamasheya. Komabe, pali mawu ambiri omwe akuchenjeza za zosazolowereka komanso zopanda nzeru zakukhudzaku. Ngati sichoncho, magawo ena akuwoneka kuti achira bwino kuposa momwe amayembekezera, ndipo ena sanatero. Njira iyi yochira zapangitsa akatswiri ena kulosera kuti kuchira kudzakhala kofanana ndi K, osati mu L, V, kapena momwe zilembo zingapo zafotokozedwera kuti zifotokozere momwe zingabwerere. Mwa mawonekedwe a K, cholinga chake ndikulongosola za polarity yomwe ingakhalepo pakati pamagawo, m'modzi mwa omwe apambana ndi gawo laukadaulo. Koma kodi kuchira kumeneku kulidi koona?

Otsatsa ambiri, onse owunikira ukadaulo komanso akatswiri ofufuza, amasowa machitidwe ena amtundu wina wamasheya. Izi ndi zina monga Zoom Video Communications, yomwe kuchulukirachulukira kuyambira koyambirira kwa chaka komwe mtengo wake unali $ 68 kudafika masiku angapo apitawa $ 478 pagawo lililonse, chiwonjezeko chopitilira 600%. Chitsanzo china chabwino ndi Tesla, yemwe katundu wake adachoka $ 84 koyambirira kwa chaka (Kugawidwa kuphatikizira) kugulitsa kuposa $ 500 masiku angapo apitawa, kukwera kwa 500%. Chikuchitika ndi chiani? Kodi akadakhaladi opambana kapena adakulitsidwa? Popanda kusanthula ndalama zamakampani omwe misika yamasheya yakhala ikukula kwambiri, titha kusankha kukhala ndi malingaliro apadziko lonse lapansi komwe misika ili. Pachifukwa ichi tigwiritsa ntchito «Buffet Index», zomwe tikambirane lero.

Kodi Buffet Index ndi chiyani?

Kufotokozera za index ya buffet

Zizindikiro zofunika kwambiri ku United States zimadziwika ndi gulu lonse lazachuma. Pakati pawo tili ndi Nasdaq 100, yomwe imasonkhanitsa masheya 100 ofunikira kwambiri muukadaulo waukadaulo, a Dow Jones Industrial A average 30, omwe amayesa kusintha kwamakampani 30 akulu kwambiri, ndi S&P 500, komwe kwakhala kwambiri woimira chuma cha kumpoto kwa America ndipo amagulitsa makampani 500 akuluakulu. Komabe, pali ma indices ena omwe sadziwika bwino, koma osafunikira kwenikweni pa izi. Mndandanda womwe chilinganizo chotulutsira index ya Buffet chimakhala ndi index ya Wilshire 5000.

Wilshire 5000 ndiye mndandanda womwe makampani onse odziwika adalembedwa, kupatula ma ADR, makampani ochepa ndi makampani ang'onoang'ono. Ikhoza kupezeka pansi pa ticker "W5000". Wilshire, yakhalanso ndi chitsitsimutso chofanana ndi chake. Zonsezi munthawi yomwe misasa, malo oimitsira malo ogulitsa, komanso mavuto azachuma chifukwa chakusokonekera kwachuma "mwachilengedwe" kwasokonezedwa. Zochitika zonsezi zidamasuliridwa kukhala madontho ofunikira kwambiri osaganizira za GDP yazachuma zosiyanasiyana.

Nkhani imodzi yomwe ikudetsa nkhawa m'nkhaniyi komanso yomwe yatulutsa ma alarm ndikuti index ya Buffet, yomwe imayesa kuchuluka kwa capitalization yathunthu ya Wilshire 5000 mpaka GDP (Gross Domestic Product) yaku United States ili pamlingo wokwera kwambiri. Chifukwa chake, mndandandandawu wagwirabe ntchito mpaka lero ngati wolosera wamkulu wokhudzana ndi ngozi zofunika kwambiri pamsika. Mwachitsanzo, kufunika kwake komwe kudatengera kuwira kwa dot-com. Kuti timvetse izi, tiwone momwe amawerengera.

Kodi Buffet Index imawerengedwa bwanji?

Momwe Index ya Buffet Amawerengera

Momwe ma Buffet Index amawerengedwera ndizosavuta kwenikweni. Ndi za kutenga ndalama zonse zomwe Wilshire 5000 amagawana ndikuzigawa ndi GDP yaku United States. Chiwerengerochi ndikuwonetsera kuchuluka kwa ubale womwe udanenedwa, ndipo kuwulula ngati peresenti, momwemo amaperekedwera, amachulukitsidwa ndi 100.

Kuti mutanthauzire bwino zotsatirazi, tiyenera mvetsetsani zomwe chiwerengerochi chikutiuza. Kukhala ndi chitsogozo ndi / kapena cholozera, maubwenzi otsatirawa ndi okwanira.

  • Peresenti yochepera 60-55%. Zingatanthauze zimenezo matumbawo ndiotsika mtengo. Kutsika kwa chiwerengerocho, kumawonjezera kuchepa kwawo.
  • Peresenti pafupifupi 75%. Osakhala okwera mtengo kapena otsika mtengo, ndi avareji yakale. Msikawo ukanakhala woyenera. Ngati chilengedwe chili chabwino, masheya atha kukhala ndiulendo wopita patsogolo potengera izi. Komano, ngati chilengedwe chikhala chankhanza kwambiri, mitengo yotsika ikadakhala yotheka.
  • Peresenti yoposa 90-100%. Pali omwe amakonda mzere wa 90, pomwe ena mzere wa 100. Koma zingatheke bwanji, kutengera izi matumba amayamba kukhala okwera mtengo. Kuchuluka kwa chiwerengerocho, ndikofunika kwambiri.

Pomwe kuwonongeka kwa dot com, matumbawo anali pa 137% ndipo adagwera 73% (mbiri yake tinganene). Pazovuta zachuma, masheya anali mozungulira 105% ndipo adagwera 57% (ndiye kuti anali otsika mtengo).

Zitatha kuneneratu… Tiri kuti tsopano?

Kodi misika yamalonda yapadziko lonse ingapite kuti?

Wilshire 5000 ili ndi ndalama zaposachedwa $ 34 trilioni. Masiku angapo apitawo adagwiritsa ntchito ndalama zoposa 36 trilioni! Izi potengera GDP ya USA kuti pakadali pano ndi chifukwa chakugwa kwachuma mu 19 trilioni amatipatsa mtengo wa 174% (34 trilioni ogawidwa ndi 19 trilioni kuchulukitsidwa ndi 5). Kodi Msika Wamasheya Ndi Wapamwamba Kwambiri? Yankho loyambirira ndipo mosakayikira lidzakhala inde. Sipanakhalepo, ngakhale mu kuwira kwa dontho-com ndi kuwerengera kwake mozungulira 137%, asanakwaniritse mbiri ya 174%. Nchiyani chikuchitika ndipo tingayembekezere chiyani?

Kunena zowona, patadutsa zaka zambiri zachuma, nthawi zina zimakhala zovuta kuyembekezera zomwe zichitike, koma zikachitika, nthawi zonse timakhala ndi komwe tingayang'ane. Ndizotheka kuti index ya Buffet ikutichenjeza, monga nthawi zam'mbuyomu, zakusokonekera kwamsika wamsika. Komabe, kuwonekera kwa mbadwo watsopano wa osunga ndalama ndi olosera, omwe pano amadziwika kuti Robinhood chifukwa chakuwoneka kwa mapulogalamu omwe amalola kuti ndalama zizitsika mtengo, zimapangitsanso momwe misika imagwirira ntchito. Izi, zomwe zidawonjezera kuchuluka kwa ndalama m'misika ndi zachuma ndi Central Banks, zikuwonjezeranso mantha obwerezabwereza kukwera kwamitengo, komwe kukasamukira kuzachuma, kukweza mitengo, ndikuchepetsa ubale wapakati pa GDP ndi ndalama.


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