Kodi chuma cha Spain chikuyembekezeka bwanji mu 2017?

Chuma cha Spain

Chaka cha 2017 chatsala pang'ono kutha, ukangomaliza, zidzakhala zotheka kuganizira za Chuma cha Spain Pakadali pano, zomwe zachitika ndi momwe chaka chino chatha pankhaniyi; Zotsatira zake, kukula kwake, zomwe zachitika pantchito, kuchepa kwa anthu, ndi zina zambiri. Makulidwe ena macroeconomics monga GDP ndi Kuchepa kwa Ntchito, adzatipatsa chidziwitso chofunikira pakuwunika kosiyanasiyana.

Tikukonzekera kuwunika, mwachidule, pazomwe zikuyembekezeredwa ndikuyerekeza miyezi khumi ndi iwiri iyi. Tidzapereka zoneneratu zoperekedwa isanakwane komanso ikatha chaka.

Mwanjira imeneyi, tidzakhala ndi chidziwitso chokhoza kukumana nacho chenicheni, 2017 ikadzatha.

Sitikufuna kukhala otsimikiza pazomwe zidachitikadi, koma zomwe zidanenedwa ndikuyerekeza ndi mabungwe osiyanasiyana, akuluakulu ndi akatswiri. China chake chomwe chatsala pang'ono kutsimikizika chaka chatha.

Mu 2015, the Institute of Economic Study ankayerekezera kuti 2017 idzasinthira chuma cha Spain. Anapitilizanso kunena kuti zomwe zathandiza chuma mchaka chimenecho zingawononge mu 2017.

IEE ananena panthawiyo kuti chuma cha Spain chidapereka mphamvu zowonjezerera, chinthu chopindulitsa kwakanthawi, koma kuti mu 2017 kukwera kwa chiwongola dzanja ndi mitengo yazida zidayambira. Kuchuluka kwa kukula kwa GDP yaku Spain kwachitika chifukwa cha zinthu zotsika mtengo, makamaka mafuta, zomwe dzikolo liyenera kuitanitsa.

Mu 2016, akatswiri ambiri achinsinsi komanso mabungwe apadziko lonse lapansi adati ngakhale pali zovuta zambiri, Spain ipitilizabe kukhala dziko lomwe lingakule kwambiri mu 2017, poyerekeza ndi chuma chachikulu ku Europe.

Za chaka chino 2017 the (GDP) - Zowonjezera Pakhomo, akuyerekezedwa ndi boma la Spain ku 1.137 miliyoni, kukula kwa 2.5%. Chiwerengero cha anthu osagwira ntchito chinali 4.3 miliyoni. Kuyerekeza kuchuluka kwa ulova pa 18.9

Pomwe chaka chino chimapitilira, akatswiri ambiri motsatizana adakweza ziyembekezo zawo zakukula kapena kuneneratu zachuma ku Spain poyerekeza ndi zomwe zidanenedwapo kale. Izi zidachitika pakati pazinthu zina chifukwa ntchito zopititsa patsogolo ntchito zimasungidwa ndipo kutumizidwa kunja kumawonetsa kusinthika kwabwino.

Mu 2016, akatswiri ambiri adaneneratu kuti GDP icheperachepera mpaka ndikupereka zifukwa zazikulu zochitira mwambowu, momwe zinthu ziliri ndi "Brexit" ku United Kingdom ndi mavuto apakatikati omwe alipo mu Boma la Spain.

Ngakhale izi zidanenedweratu, zomwe zidanenedweratu munthawiyo, zidayamba kale chaka, zikuwonetsa kuthekera kwakukulu kwakukula kwachuma kopitilira kwa 2016, komwe kunali (3.2%) ndipo panali zoyambitsa zina za mwambowu, mphamvu mwina osayembekezeredwa mu ntchito ndi ndalama.

Tiyeni tiwone momwe ziwonetsero zina za akatswiri, akatswiri ndi mabungwe

Chuma cha Spain

Munthawi yonse ya 2017, mabungwe osiyanasiyana apadziko lonse lapansi monga European Commission ndi IMF (International Monetary Fund) komanso maiko ena, anali kukulitsa kuneneratu kwawo. Mwachitsanzo, OECD koyambirira kwa Juni idakulitsa kuyerekezera kwa GDP kukhala 2.8%.

Mu Julayi IMF idakonzanso kukwera kwa GDP kukhala 3.1% chaka chino (kuchokera ku 2.6% m'mbuyomu).

La European Commission adaulula malingaliro ake kuti dziko la Spain lisasowanso ndalama mu 2017. Luis de Guindos, Nduna Yowona Zachuma, adati panthawi yomwe kuchepa kwa anthu kudzakhala pansi pa 3% ya GDP chaka chino, ngakhale European Commission idayika 3.1 % mu nyengo yamasika.

Guindos adatsimikiziranso kuti "kupatula zotsutsana, zingakhale zovuta kuti Spain ikule pansi pa 2.7" chaka chino, ndikuwona kukula kotsimikizika kwa 3.4 kotala yoyamba, monga zavumbulutsidwa ndi National Institute of Statistics (INE).

Economic Council idapanga ziwerengero m'gawo loyamba la chaka ndikuwonetsa kuti chuma cha Spain chikukula ndi 2.7%.

European Commission

M'mwezi wa Meyi, Kubwera ku Europe  Anatinso kupita patsogolo kwachuma ku Spain kunali kopitilira mayiko ena aku Europe. Adawerengera kuti chuma chikukula 2.8% chaka chino.

Ananenanso kuti padzakhala ntchito zambiri, ngakhale kusowa kwa ntchito kungapitirire maiko ena mderali. Anatinso dzulo lachuma litha chaka chino ku 3.2% ya GDP, poyankhapo zakuchepa kwamaakaunti aboma.

Gulu la akatswiri

Chuma cha Spain

Kumayambiriro kwa chaka, malinga ndi gulu la akatswiri opitilira 350 aku Spain, mamanejala ndi amalonda okonzedwa ndi PwC; mkhalidwe wachuma ku Spain udali wabwino, ndipo adati izi zitha mpaka kumapeto kwa chaka, chifukwa chazomwe amagulitsa, kutumizira kunja, ndalama kumakampani ndi anthu, kuphatikiza zina zabwino monga ntchito ndi ndalama zopindulitsa.

47.6% mwa omwe adafunsidwa adawona kuti kumwa banja zikanakhala zikuwonjezeka mchaka. 55.2% adaneneratu kuti kufunikira kwakunyumba kudzawonjezeka. 66.7% akuyerekezera kuti ntchito ipitilizabe kukula, 59% amakhulupirira kuti zomwezi zichitike ndikutumiza kunja ndipo 48.6% ati zomwezo zichitike ndikubzala zipatso.

Akatswiriwa adanenanso kuti gawo la zokopa alendo ndi lomwe lingatsogolere kukula kwadzikoli, 91.2% mwa iwo anali ndi malingaliro awa.

Otsatirawo adatsimikiza kuti ntchito ikukula m'magulu monga zokopa alendo ndi zomangamanga, zomwe ndi zachikhalidwe; komanso kuti zikuchitikanso m'magawo omwe akutukuka kwambiri monga azaumoyo, mayendedwe ndi kayendedwe, chikhalidwe, ndi zina zambiri.

Akuyembekeza zotsatira zoyipa, zokhudzana ndi kuchotsedwa ntchito kwa gawo lazachuma ndi inshuwaransi.

Bank of Spain

Bank of Spain idaganizira mu Epulo kuti inflation idzadziwika bwino mu 2017, izi ndichifukwa cha kusinthika kwamitengo yamafuta. Mitengo yazogulitsayi ikuyembekezeka kukhazikika mchaka chonse, ndikuthandizira kuchepetsa CPI. Amayembekezeranso kukula kwa ntchito pamitengo yayikulu, zomwe zingabweretse zokolola zochepa.

Kafukufuku Wotsalira

Mu Ogasiti 2016, the Ntchito yowunikira BBVA  Anati chaka chamawa chuma cha Spain chidzachepa chifukwa cha "Brexit" pa icho, ndikuti chidzawononga gawo limodzi mwa magawo khumi a kukula.

Iwo ananenapo panthawiyo kuti kusatetezeka kwachuma ku Spain kukukulirakulira komanso kuti zinthu zambiri zimayembekezera kutsika pang'ono mu 2017. Amaneneratu zakukula kwa 2.3% chaka chino.

Kupatula "Brexit", adanenanso kuti kupezeka kwa kusatsimikizika pankhani yokhudza ndalama ndi njira zina zachuma, zidawapangitsa kukhala ochepa pokhudzana ndi ziyembekezo za 2017.

Pakafukufuku wa 2016, adati zomwe zimatsimikizika pofotokoza kukula zimapitilizabe kugwiritsidwa ntchito kunyumba.

Panthawiyo, adaneneratu kuti padzakhala kuchuluka kwa ntchito pafupifupi 800.000 pantchito ndikuti kusowa kwa ntchito kungachepetse mpaka 18.2%

Kale mu 2017, BBVA inali ndi chiyembekezo chodzasintha kusintha kwachuma ku Spain. Adawona kukula kwa GDP mpaka 3% chaka chino, pokhala ziyembekezo zabwino.

Anatinso kukula kwachuma mdziko muno sikungafanane ndi magulu odziyimira pawokha. Zilumba za Balearic monga gulu lomwe likukula kwambiri chaka chino, lotsatiridwa ndi Canary Islands ndi Madrid, Andalusia ndi Castilla-La Mancha.

Iwo akuganiza kuti madera asanu ndi anayi odziyimira pawokha akukula pansi pa avareji yadziko, otsalira kwambiri kumbuyo kwa Asturias, Cantabria ndi Extremadura.

FUNCAS - Mabungwe Osungira Mabanki

Chuma cha Spain

M'mwezi wa Meyi chaka chino, Mabungwe Osungira Mabanki (Funcas) adanenanso zachuma. Kukula kwa GDP kukuyerekeza 2.8%, kunena kuti madera anayi odziyimira pawokha omwe akukula kwambiri ndi Madrid, Balearic Islands, Catalonia ndi Galicia.

Ponena za kusowa kwa ntchito komanso kuyambitsa ntchito zatsopano, adapatsa mwayi wogwira ntchito pafupifupi 450.000, zomwe zingachepetse kuchuluka kwa anthu osagwira ntchito mpaka 17.5%.

Ponena za kuchepa kwa kayendetsedwe ka boma, adatsimikiza kuti kusintha kwachuma kwakanthawi mdzikolo kuyenera kuchepa, koma osakwaniritsa 3.1% ya GDP yomwe idagwirizana ndi Brussels.

AIReF - Independent Authority Yazandalama

Thupi ili lidaneneratu zakukula kwachuma cha 3.2%, uku ndikuneneratu magawo awiri mwa magawo khumi kuposa a Boma (+ 3%). Kukula kwa GDP inali pa 0.85% m'gawo lachitatu ndi 0.81% yachinayi.

Ponena za chuma cha Spain, mu 2017 yomwe yatsala pang'ono kutha, tafotokozera mwachidule zina mwazolosera zomwe zidachitika chaka chisanayambike komanso kuyamba kumene.

Zidzakhala zotheka kuyerekezera zomwe amaganiza ndikuwerengera akatswiri ndi zomwe zakhala zikuchitika miyezi khumi ndi iwiriyi, mutu womwe uyenera kufufuzidwa ndikukhazikika kuti tipeze mayankho olondola.

 

 


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