ʻO kekahi o nā hanana e hopohopo nui nei nā mea hoʻopukapuka kālā ka mea i kapa ʻia ʻo bubble economic. ʻAʻole kahaha, he hana e alakaʻi ai i ka mea nui kūpenu iho i nā mākeke loaʻa kālā loli. ʻAʻole pinepine lākou, akā ke puka lākou ʻaʻohe ou koho akā e haʻalele ʻoe i nā kūlana i loko o ka ʻeke. ʻOkiʻoki i nā kumukūʻai o Māhele ikaika loa lākou a hiki ke hāʻule i nā pae liʻiliʻi. I kahi e hiki ai iā lākou ke hoʻohana ʻia e nā mea hoʻopukapuka manaʻo nui loa.
Eia naʻe, ʻaʻole ʻike nā mea hoʻopukapuka liʻiliʻi a me waena i kona ʻano maoli. ʻĀ, i mea e ʻoi aku ka maopopo ma mua o kēia manawa, pono ʻoe e ʻike ʻo kahi ʻōpala hoʻokele waiwai, i kapa ʻia hoʻi he kālā, a hana kūkaʻi kālā kū kēlā i ka wā he hopena koʻikoʻi ma nā mākeke kālā. Ma kēlā me kēia ʻaoʻao, a ʻoi aku kēia koʻikoʻi, ʻike ʻia nā ʻōhū me ka maopopo ʻole a me nā hiʻohiʻona hiʻohiʻona ʻole. ʻOiai ma nā hihia hope ua paʻakikī lākou e ʻike ʻia e nā ʻokena kālā ʻokoʻa.
ʻO kekahi kumu āu e ʻike ai i kēia manawa ʻo kēia ʻano hoʻokele waiwai e lilo i mea maʻamau me nā kaʻina o ka hoʻohuihui kumukūʻai. ʻO kekahi mea e maopopo ai e like me ia ma nā hihia kikoʻī o ka puʻuwai waiwai i kapa ʻia he waiwai nui ma Sepania i nā makahiki i hala iho nei. Ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, ʻo ia ke aniani e puka aʻe ma ke ʻano he hopena o kahi wā hanohano a i ʻole hoʻokele waiwai. Ma hope o kahi manawa o ka hoʻonui waiwai e aneane mau i mua o ka hanana i ʻōlelo ʻia e mākou e pili ana i kēia ʻatikala.
ʻO
ʻO Bubble: hiki ke hoʻopau i kahi māwae
ʻO kahi mea hoihoi loa e pili ana i ka huewaiwai hoʻokele waiwai hiki iā ia ke hoʻopau i kahi ulia kālā e hiki ke luku i kahi waiwai nui i kahi ʻāina. E like me ka mea i hala i nā makahiki i hala aku nei me ka ʻO ke kaumaha nui o nā makahiki 1930 a me ka huʻa waiwai ma Iapana i nā makahiki 1990. Eia kekahi mau laʻana e wehewehe maikaʻi loa i kēia neʻe kālā e hopohopo nui nei i nā mea hoʻopukapuka. Ma waena o nā kumu ʻē aʻe no ka mea hiki iā lākou ke lilo i ke kālā he nui i kā lākou hana ma ka mākeke kūʻai. Ma mua o nā ʻike loea ʻē aʻe a mai ke kiko nui o ka ʻike o nā mākeke kālā.
E pili ana i ko lākou ʻano, he ʻano ʻokoʻa ko lākou a me nā mea i kū i ka mahele aʻe a mākou e kuhikuhi ai iā ʻoe: noʻonoʻo, intrinsic a ke hea aku nei he maʻi lele. ʻOiai ʻoi aku ka nui o nā mea psychological i luna o nā mea macroeconomic. Hoʻohālikelike ia no ka mea ʻo kēia mea i mua o kahi pae koʻikoʻi. Ma kahi e hoʻomaka ai ka liʻiliʻi o nā mea kūʻai aku, a hoʻomaka kekahi poʻe mea hoʻopukapuka e kūʻai aku i ko lākou kūlana ma nā mākeke kālā. E hoʻopau ai i ka ʻōpala weliweli a i ʻole no kahi manawa e ʻike paha ʻoe iā lākou e like me ka hāʻule, ʻoiai me nā hoʻomanaʻo maikaʻi ʻole no nā mea hoʻopukapuka.
Pehea e ʻike ai i ka laha?
Ke hana ʻia ka bubble hoʻokele waiwai i kapa ʻia he mau hōʻailona e hōʻike ana ke alo nei mākou i kēia kūlana lahilahi i ka hoʻokele waiwai o kahi ʻāina a i ʻole ka pae honua. Maʻalahi lākou e ʻike a ma luna o nā mea āpau e pili ana i nā hōʻailona aʻe e hōʻike aku nei mākou iā ʻoe ma lalo nei i hiki ai iā ʻoe ke akāka iki i kēia neʻe hoʻokele waiwai kūikawā.
- Haule nui o nā mākeke kaulike, me nā pae i hiki ke ikaika loa a hele pū ʻia me kahi pae kiʻekiʻe o ka hana kuikahi. I kekahi mau pule, hāʻule nui ke kumukūʻai.
- El emi ka ʻai ʻana ʻo ia i kahi kiko e hiki ai ke hoʻokau i ka hoʻokele waiwai o kahi ʻāina a i ʻole kahi ʻāina. Hoʻolilo nā mea hoʻohana i ke kālā e kūʻai liʻiliʻi ana i nā huahana lawelawe, lawe i nā moraki liʻiliʻi a hoʻolilo i kālā ma kā lākou kūʻai mau maʻamau. Me kahi hoʻolaha o ka mālama ʻana ma luna o nā manaʻo ʻē aʻe.
- Hāʻule ka ulu ʻana o nā ʻoihana i nā pae i hiki ke noʻonoʻo ʻia he weliweli loa. ʻAʻohe mea kānalua, he mea maʻamau lākou i loko ulu maikaʻi ʻole no kekahi mau trimesters a i ʻole mau makahiki e like me nā ʻāina e kū mai ana. ʻO ia ka mea weliweli loa i nā huʻa kālā a hoʻokele waiwai paha.
- El ka nele i ka hana ulu ia ke hiki mai kēia kūlana hoʻokele waiwai, i kekahi mau ʻāina me nā pākēneka i hiki ke paʻakikī loa i nā aupuni e manaʻo. ʻOi loa kahi e manaʻo ʻia ai nā pilikia ma ke ʻano he kūkulu, e like me kahi laʻana ma Sepania. Me nā pae ma luna o 20%, e like me ka mea i loaʻa i ka hopena hoʻokele waiwai hope loa, ma 2007 a me 2008.
- ʻO ka haunaele i ka mākeke kālā ʻO ia kekahi o nā mahele maʻamau o kēia mau hanana pilikia loa i ka hoʻokele waiwai. Me nā ʻokoʻa ma waena o kāna uku palena palena a me ka palena iki ma kahi kau kūʻai like i hiki ke ʻoi aku i nā kiʻekiʻe o 10% a i ʻole me ka ʻoi loa o ka neʻe ʻana i kēia neʻe kālā.
Nā hopena o kēia neʻe
ʻAʻohe mea kānalua e hiki i ka huʻa waiwai ke loaʻa nā hopena weliweli i ke kaiāulu i ka nui. Loaʻa kēia ma muli o ka ʻoiaʻiʻo piʻi ʻole a hoʻolōʻihi ʻia ʻO ke kumu kūʻai o kekahi mau ʻāpana a i ʻole waiwai waiwai e hoʻoulu i ka lola o ka wānana e hoʻopau ana i ka luku ʻana i ka hoʻokele waiwai. ʻAʻole paʻa ka lōʻihi o ka bubble hoʻokele waiwai. Inā ʻaʻole, ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē, hiki ke hala mai kekahi mau mahina (ʻoiai ʻaʻole pinepine kēia hanana) i nā makahiki he nui a luku i ka hoʻokele waiwai o ka honua a i ʻole kekahi mau lāhui ma ka honua.
Ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, he mea maʻamau ia ke kamaʻilio nei mākou e pili ana i kēia neʻe hoʻokele waiwai ʻano me he mea lā ke kuhikuhi pololei nei mākou i ka ulia pōpilikia a i ʻole nā waiwai waiwai. Akā ʻo ka pāpā ʻaʻole pono lākou e kūlike, mamao loa aku. ʻOiai kūlike lākou i kāna kumu mai ka wehewehe pono ʻana i nā mea paʻa i hiki ke kālailai ʻia e nā loiloi kālā me ka hanohano nui loa ma nā mākeke. ʻAʻole ia he mea kupanaha, ʻo ke kumu o nā huʻa kālā he wānana maʻamau. Loaʻa ka speculate ʻana i ka loaʻa ʻana o kahi waiwai a huahana paha me ke kumu nui o ke kūʻai aku iā ia ma hope ma kahi kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe.
Kānāwai o ka hoʻolako a me ka koi
I kēlā me kēia hihia, aia kahi o nā hōʻailona e hiki ke hāʻawi iā ʻoe i kekahi mea hana i kāna wehewehe. E like me ka hihia kikoʻī he ʻōnaehana waiwai nā huʻa kālā i loko o kahi mismatch ikaika ma waena o ka lako a me ka noi. Ke kū kēia, ke hana nei ia i kahi hopena nui i ka hoʻokele waiwai o kahi ʻāina a i ʻole i ka pae honua, e like me ka hana ʻana i nā makahiki i hala me nā pilikia hoʻokele waiwai. ʻAʻole pili lākou i kahi ʻāina kikoʻī, akā naʻe nā wahi waiwai nui loa, e like paha me he laʻana i loko o ka ʻāpana euro.
ʻO kekahi ʻano ʻē aʻe e pono e noʻonoʻo ʻia mai kēia manawa ma muli o ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, i kekahi ʻano, hiki ke ʻike mua ʻia kēlā neʻe ʻana i nā ʻoihana o ka honua. Ma muli o ka hopena, ulu ikaika ia i ke kumu kūʻai, a like paha me he mea lā he hemo maʻamau o kahi huʻa kālā, ʻaʻole ia e pili pono i kahi huʻa. Mai kēia hoʻokokoke ʻana, hoʻopili ʻia i kahi mau pilikia no a ʻike pololei o ka huʻa o kēia mau ʻano. Ma waho o kāna mau hōʻailona maʻamau a hiki ke huikau ʻia me nā neʻe kālā ʻē aʻe o ka umekaumaha kūikawā akā ʻaʻole ia e lilo i huina kālā a hoʻokele waiwai paha.
Nā kūleʻa mākeke
I kēlā me kēia hihia, pono ʻoe e ʻike mai kēia manawa e hōʻike ana nā mākeke waihona i nā kū i kūlike i nā huʻa kālā. Wahi a Dow, ka mea nāna i hana i ka papa inoa ʻo New York Dow-Jones, hōʻike ka mākeke waiwai i ʻekolu mau hanana: ke ʻano mua, ke ʻano lua a me ke ʻano nui. Aia i ka hope kahi e hiki ai i ka huʻa a mākou e kamaʻilio nei. ʻAʻole kahaha, ʻike ʻia ia ma luna o nā mea āpau no ka mea i ka ke kūlana kiʻekiʻe kūlike ia i nā fluctuations o nā kumukūʻai i hana ʻia i ka wā like o ka mākeke kūʻai.
Ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, pono e hoʻomaopopo ʻia i kēia mea ʻo ka ʻoiaʻiʻo o kahi mākeke kālā hoʻonui ʻia a hoʻokau ʻia nā kūʻai aku me ka ikaika ikaika kekahi o nā hōʻailona e hiki ai ke ʻohi a ʻike ʻia paha kēia ʻano huʻa. Ma hea kahi hāʻule ʻoi loa a makaʻu hoʻi i waena o nā mea hoʻopukapuka, a hiki i ke kiko e kūʻai aku lākou i ko lākou mau kūlana i nā mākeke kaulike a me ke kumukūʻai e lilo ana ka nui o ke kālā i kā lākou hoʻokomo kālā.
Nā kumu ʻē aʻe no kona helehelena
Eia nō naʻe, aia kekahi mau kumuwaiwai ʻē aʻe e wehewehe i kēia ʻoiaʻiʻo a i ʻole hanana hoʻokele waiwai. ʻO kahi laʻana, he a kālailai noʻonoʻo ʻole, pili wale i nā loaʻa i loaʻa i ka wā i hala iho nei o ka waiwai. Me ka ʻole i kēlā me kēia manawa e noʻonoʻo ana i ka ʻāpana o ka hoʻokalakupua kumu o nā waiwai kālā. A hiki i kēlā ke alakaʻi i nā hopena i makemake ʻole ʻia ma ka ʻaoʻao o nā mea hoʻopukapuka liʻiliʻi a me waena. Ma mua o nā ʻike loea ʻē aʻe a mai ke kiko nui o ka ʻike.
Ma hea kahi e hiki ai i nā mākeke waiwai nui, a me kahi ʻano o ka hilinaʻi nui, hiki iā ia ke alakaʻi i ka manaʻo o nā mea hoʻopukapuka ʻaʻole e loli kēia mau hanana no ka manawa lōʻihi. I ke kiko o ka hoʻokumu ʻana i nā hanana i maikaʻi ʻole no nā hana a nā mea hoʻopukapuka liʻiliʻi a me waena. Ma hea lākou iʻoi aku ai i ka lilo ma mua o ka loaʻa.