An yi ta ce-ce-ku-ce, game da irin wadatar da tattalin arzikin Amurka zai yi. Shin zai zama mai saurin dawo da fasalin V, ko kuma dogon lokaci tsakanin raguwa da dawo da mai zuwa (mai siffa ta U)? Sauran hanyoyin sake murmurewa an kwatanta su da haruffa "W" da "L".
A hakikanin gaskiya, wannan miya ta haruffa “ba ta da mahimmanci sosai,” a cewar Vincent Deluard, shugaban dabarun macro na duniya a kamfanin saka hannun jari INTL FCSstone. A cikin imel, ya ce masu zuba jari kada su karaya da wannan, saboda, ya lura, "hasashen tattalin arziki, motsa jiki mai haɗari a mafi kyawun lokuta, ya fi rashin amfani a yau: ba mu da masaniya ko za a yi tashin hankali na biyu. na cututtuka ko a'a, hauhawar farashin kaya ko deflation, koma bayan takardar ma'auni ko jubilee bashi, da sauransu. »
Sabili da haka, sanin cewa kintace bai bambanta sosai da dabarun saka hannun jari ba ya zama abin ƙarfafawa. Idan wani abu, koma bayan coronavirus na iya rigaya ya kare, amma doguwa ce zuwa "al'ada."
GDP wannan kwata
Deluard ya cimma matsayarsa mai tsaurin ra'ayi lokacin da yake kirga kudaden dawowa ga wani mai saka jari wanda zai iya hango abin da alkaluman GDP na karshe zai zama kwata-kwata hudu a gaba. Wannan ya haɗa da kyakkyawan ƙimar gaskiya, tabbas, tun da yake ya daɗe bayan ƙarshen wani kwata ya ƙare cewa gwamnati ta kai ƙarshen GDP na ƙarshe a wannan kwata.
Koyaya, Deluard ya gano cewa wannan mai saka jari na zato, duk da cewa yana da kyakkyawar fahimta, da ƙyar ya samu sauƙin saye da riƙewa a cikin shekaru saba'in da suka gabata.
Musamman, ya ɗauka cewa wannan mai saka hannun jari zai sami jarin 100% idan haɓakar GDP a cikin ɓangarori huɗu masu zuwa ya fi sauri fiye da na yanzu; in ba haka ba, zaku saka hannun jari a cikin tsabar kuɗi. Tun daga ƙarshen 40s, wannan mai saka hannun jari zai sami nasara fiye da S&P 500 SPX, + 0,43% da ƙasa da kashi ɗaya cikin ɗari wanda ake tallatawa. Wannan ƙaramar lada ce don kasancewa cikakken mai talla, musamman ma tunda ƙalubalen suna da ban tsoro cewa hasashenmu zai faɗi nesa ba kusa ba.
Yi la'akari da abin da binciken Deluard ke nufi ga halin da muke ciki na rashin tabbas, wanda ba mu san ainihin saurin tattalin arziki ba. Amma ba za mu sami fa'ida sosai ba a kan 'yan uwanmu masu saka jari ko da kuwa mun san yanzu ci gaban tattalin arziki zai hanzarta a zango na biyu na 2021.
Me yasa ilimin cigaban tattalin arzikin nan gaba bashi da matsala sosai? Deluard yayi jayayya saboda saboda ribar riba da ƙimar P / E sunada mahimmanci. Tattalin arziƙi na iya haɓaka cikin sauri, bayan haka, amma idan ribar riba tana raguwa to haɓakar ba za ta fassara zuwa ƙarin riba ba. Kuma samun ci gaba cikin sauri ba koyaushe zai iya ninka raguwar P / E.
Kamfanoni masu zuwa na gaba
Wannan rawar da wuce gona da iri da aka samu ta hanyar P / E yana da alaƙa da ragin rangwame da masu saka hannun jari ke amfani da shi - a bayyane ko a bayyane - lokacin da suke darajar kuɗin da kamfanoni ke samu a nan gaba. Tare da ƙimar ragi mai yawa, riba a cikin shekaru masu zuwa yana da ɗan faɗan ƙimar kamfanin na yanzu. Tare da ragin ragi kaɗan, suna da ƙari sosai. A zahiri, Deluard kwanan nan ya nuna cewa, gwargwadon ƙimar ragi da aka yi amfani da shi, S & P 500 yanzu yana da darajar gaske tsakanin 1.851 da 3.386.
Ba abin mamaki bane, kamar yadda Deluard ya fada, sanin gaba ƙimar haɓakar GDP ba ta da "amfani mara ma'ana." Babu ɗayan wannan da zai ce tattalin arziki ba shi da matsala. Yana da mahimmanci, ba shakka. Amma tasirin ku shine mafi girma lokacin da kuka mai da hankali kan kasuwar hannun jari na dogon lokaci. A cikin gajerun lokuta, tattalin arziki baya taka rawar gani fiye da iyakar riba da ragin ragi da aka danganta da kimantawa.
Har ila yau, wannan tattaunawar ta sanya muhawara ta baya-bayan nan game da rarrabuwa tsakanin kasuwar hannayen jari da tattalin arziki. Abin da binciken Deluard ya nuna shi ne cewa wannan cire haɗin ba sabon abu bane kuma ba shine mafi girma a yanzu ba kamar shekarun baya.
Masu saka hannun jari suna tsammanin samun saurin tattalin arziki kamar yadda NASDAQ 100 ya sami sabon matsayi kuma S&P 500 yana kawar da asarar shekara-shekara. Indexididdigar S&P 500 ta faɗi kusan 34% daga ƙwanan watan Fabrairu zuwa raunin Maris, yana tura kasuwanni cikin ƙasa mai ɗaukar nauyi. Hawan fasahar zamani da kayan sadarwa sun haɓaka ribar NASDAQ, tare da kamfanoni kamar Zuƙowa kusan ya ninka farashin kasonsu tun farkon watan Janairu yayin da kulle-kullen ya tilasta masu amfani da su rungumi sabbin hanyoyin sadarwa.
Sabuwar kasuwar bijimai ta tabbatar makonni 16 kawai bayan fargabar COVID-19 ta ga masu saka hannun jari sun siyar da kadarorinsu lokacin da ake fargabar koma bayan tattalin arziki a Amurka.
NASDAQ ya tashi 44,7% daga ƙasan 23 Maris. Kasuwancin bijimin gabaɗaya ana ɗaukarsa azaman haɓaka sama da 20% daga mafi ƙasƙanci.
Babban masanin tattalin arzikin BetaShare David Bassanese ya yi imanin cewa kasuwanni na iya kasancewa masu kyakkyawan fata kasancewar sun mamaye abubuwan da suka gabata.
Daga karshe, ina zargin cewa kasuwanni za su kasance masu kyakkyawan fata game da saurin farfadowar tattalin arziki, amma kasuwannin suna kasancewa ne sanadiyyar kwararar labarai na yau da kullun, wanda ya ci gaba da kasancewa mai karfafa gwiwa tun lokacin da aka sanya su. An rufe duk duniya, "in ji shi.
Bayanai na tattalin arziki mara kyau
Mista Bassanese ya ce "Bayan haka, kasuwar ta yi rangwame ga mummunan bayanan tattalin arziki da ke da alaka da kullewa a lokacin sayarwar a watan Maris, don haka ba shi da kariya ga wannan bayanan lokacin da ya fara bayyana a watannin da suka gabata."
Yayin da tattalin arziki ya fara sake budewa, masanin tattalin arzikin ya bayar da hujjar cewa bayyanannen hoto na hangen tattalin arziki zai yi tasiri a kasuwar hada-hadar hannayen jari.
“Kasuwa ta sami damar mayar da hankali kan fa'idodi na rufewa dangane da lanƙwasa lanƙwasa, sake buɗewa a hankali kuma a yanzu wasu alamun farko na sake dawowa cikin sabon bayanan tattalin arziƙi. Amma ƙalubalen zai zo ne bayan tashin farko a sake buɗe bayanan tattalin arziƙi, idan bayanan sake buɗe bayanan sun fi yawa, kamar yadda nake tsammanin zai kasance.
Mista Bassanese ya ci gaba da cewa "Da alama kasuwar za ta ci gaba da yin kamar ana yin zanga-zangar mai dauke da V har sai an samu kwararan shaidu sabanin haka."
Babban haɓaka ga kasuwar ita ce rahoton aiki na kowane wata na ranar Juma'a, wanda ya nuna raguwar da ba zato ba tsammani a cikin rashin aikin yi, yana ƙarfafa ra'ayoyi cewa mafi munin lalacewar tattalin arziki daga ɓarkewar cutar ya ƙare.
Hannayen jarin da aka fi kashewa a baya, gami da sufuri, yawon bude ido da masana'antun sayar da kayayyaki, sun tashi yayin da masu saka jari ke nuna kyakkyawan fata game da takunkumin bayan duniya-COVID-19. "Abin da ke faruwa a fili shi ne cewa sake budewar ya ba da dama ga wadannan 'yan kasuwa wadanda suka kamu da cutar COVID-19 su dawo su koma karfi," in ji Stanley Druckenmiller, Shugaba da Shugaba na Ofishin Iyalan Duquesne., zuwa CNBC.
Koyaya, Mr Bassanese ya gargaɗi masu saka jari na Australiya da su yi hankali da haƙuri yayin saka hannun jari a kasuwar Amurka.
“Har yanzu ina ganin lokaci ya yi da za a yi taka-tsantsan, musamman ma idan ba ku saye ba a cikin zanga-zangar daidaiton kwanan nan ta hanya babba har yanzu. Tsoron rasa karatu a yanzu ya yi yawa, amma ina tsammanin akwai yiwuwar koma baya mai kyau a cikin watanni masu zuwa - a kalla rabin abin da aka dawo da shi tun karshen watan Maris - yayin da gaskiyar farfadowar tattalin arziki ta bayyana, "in ji Mista Bassanese .
Sakamako mai ƙarfi na ƙasashen duniya ya haɓaka hannun jari na cikin gida, kuma kasuwar Australiya ta tashi da kashi 2,48% a lokacin latsawa.
Yanayin Bearish a kasuwar jari
Masu saka jari suna da matukar damuwa, tare da kashi 75% na tsammanin farfadowa mai kama da U- ko W daga faduwar tattalin arziki na cutar coronavirus, idan aka kwatanta da kashi 10% kawai da ke tsammanin fasalin V, a cewar sabon binciken manajan. . Ruwa na biyu na coronavirus shine mafi girman haɗarin wutsiya, tare da 52% na manajojin da aka bincika suna ambata shi, yayin da babban rashin aikin yi (15%) da wargajewar Tarayyar Turai (11%) suka kasance na biyu da na uku.
Manajoji sun watsar da damuwar masu siyarwa yayin da hannun jarin Amurka ya kusanto da girman kumfar fasahar. Dole maganin ya zama bai fi cutar cutar ba
Fundsididdigar manajan masu yawa suna rage ɗaukar adalci zuwa mafi ƙarancin matakin. Matakan kuɗi sun ɗan faɗi kaɗan zuwa 5,7% daga 5,9% a cikin Afrilu, amma har yanzu suna sama da matsakaita na shekaru 10 na ƙarshe na 4,7%, yana nuna cewa "Alamar Saya" cin amana ce.
Dangane da wannan zuba jari "mai matuƙar wahala", waɗanda aka ba da amsar suna da kadarori masu nauyi, kamar makamashi da masana'antu, kuma suna da kadarorin kariya masu nauyi, kamar kiwon lafiya, kuɗi da kuma lamuni. Valueimar da haɓakar haɓaka ta dawo zuwa matakan rikicin tattalin arziƙi na duniya, tare da kashi 23% na masu saka jari suna gaskanta cewa hannun jarin ba zai inganta ci gaban ba, adadi na ƙarshe da aka gani a watan Disamba na 2007.
Ra'ayin masu saka jari
Mafi yawan manajoji (63%) sun ce kamfanoni sun wuce gona da iri, suna goyon bayan ra'ayin cewa masu saka hannun jari suna son kamfanoni su kashe kuɗinsu don inganta takaddun daidaitawa, tare da kashi 73% da ke tsammanin wannan, yayin da 15% ke son haɓaka capex da 7% so a mayar da kuɗin ga hannun jarin.
Yuro ba shi da tsada ga masu amsa, tare da kashi 17% wanda ke nuna cewa ba a rage darajar kudin ba, yayin da kashi 43% na imanin cewa dala ta yi sama da fadi, duk da cewa har yanzu kamun ludayin na hannun jarin Amurka ya kai kashi 24% yayin da adadin Eurozone ya yi kasa (17% net), su kaso mafi karanci tun daga watan Yulin 2012.
Duk da wannan, Burtaniya ta kasance yanki mafi kiba a cikin binciken wannan watan game da manajojin asusun duniya, tare da ƙarancin nauyin nauyin kashi 33%. Duk da yake a wani bangaren kuma dole ne a tuna cewa sake tsara tsarin samarda kayayyaki, karuwar kariyar kariya da sabbin hanyoyin karin haraji, sun kasance farkon wuri a cikin jerin masu saka hannun jari kan canjin tsari a cikin duniyar bayan Covid, wanda aka ambata 68 %, 44% da 42% na lokaci bi da bi.
Yafe bashi, koren makamashi, hauhawa da kuma samun kuɗin shiga na yau da kullun duk suna cikin jerin wannan watan na yiwuwar canje-canje bayan annoba.
Adana kan kwamitocin
Musamman masu saka hannun jari waɗanda ke aiwatar da ayyuka da yawa a shekara, duka biyun na nufin gajere, matsakaici ko dogon lokaci, na iya yin amfani da ƙimar kasuwar hannayen jarin da ke fara kasuwancin cibiyoyin hada-hadar kuɗi da yawa, kuma, wanda ke ba da gagarumin tanadi dangane da kwamitocin. don ayyukan da aka yi. Kudinsa yana tsakanin yuro 6 zuwa 10 a kowane wata, kuma ga mutumin da ke gudanar da ayyuka sau huɗu a kowane wata, alal misali, ajiyar kuɗi na iya nufin kusan yuro 30 a kowane wata a matsakaici, wanda kuma ya taimaka wajen inganta saka hannun jari. Matsakaicin farashi akan kasuwar hannayen jari yana bawa mai amfani damar aiwatar da ayyukan saye da sayarwa da yawa yadda suke so, kamar yadda lamarin yake dangane da farashin waya ko na Intanet. Kodayake aikace-aikacen sa ba su yadu sosai a bangaren hada-hadar kudi ba, amma ya kunshi bankuna da bankunan ajiya wadanda ke aiki ta hanyar Intanet da dillalai, na ƙasa da na duniya, waɗanda sune suke samar da mafi kyawun yanayi.
A cikin kowane hali, ba za a iya mantawa da cewa sayayya mai kyau a cikin kasuwannin hada-hadar na nufin samun ci gaba sosai saboda sakamakon a cikin hanyar samun ribar kuɗi ba zai ɗauki lokaci mai yawa ya zo ba, amma saboda wannan ya zama dole a ɗauki jerin jagororin da kuma kiyayewa tare da nufin ɗaukar mummunan matsayi na iya ɗaukar nauyin jarinmu a nan gaba, koda kuwa tsadar sa ta haɓaka a cikin wani lokacin damuwa.
Kafin samun matsayi a cikin tsaro, yana da kyau a yi nazari kan fannin fasaha da asali, kar a bar shi ga zabin da ba zai iya kawo matsaloli ba ga bukatun kananan da matsakaitan masu saka jari, akasarinsu a cikin nakasassu.
Shigar da sassan da suka dace yana sauƙaƙa aikin zaɓi yayin gina fayil, saboda yana iya ɗaukar ra'ayin kasuwa mai kyau, duk abin da aka zaɓa, idan dai ainihin bayanan kamfanonin na da kyau.
A cikin samfuran ci gaba, ƙa'idar gama gari tsakanin ƙwararrun masu saka hannun jari ita ce jira ragin farashin kamfanoni don shiga kasuwa a farashin da ya fi gasa, wanda zai iya haifar da ci gaba mai girma cikin farashin. Ƙimar kuma, sabili da haka, mafi girma damar revaluation. Wadannan takamaiman ragin suna faruwa ne idan akwai wata '' gajiya '' a wuraren siye da siyarwa suka fara shawagi, ma'ana, idan kasuwa ta wuce gona da iri kuma tana bukatar gyara a farashin don ci gaba da hawansa zuwa sama. Wadannan "karyewar" a cikin ambaton farashinsa, wanda tallace-tallace suka fara kunno kai, suna faruwa sau da yawa yayin wani aiki mai ƙarfi, har ma masu sharhi game da kasuwar hannayen jarin sun bayyana shi da "motsin lafiya gaba daya”Wannan yana aiki ne don fihirisa, sassa ko hannayen jari don samun karin ƙarfi a cikin zaman ciniki na gaba. Sun fi dacewa musamman ga waɗanda ke saka hannun jari waɗanda ke niyyar ɗan gajeren lokaci kuma suna son samun duk '' ruwan 'ya'yan su' 'daga abubuwan da ke hawa sama na abubuwan da suka dace. Akasin haka, suna da ƙarancin tasiri ga waɗanda suka zaɓi jarinsu zuwa matsakaici da dogon lokaci tunda tasirin su ba zai yi tasiri ba.
Siyan hannun jari kusa da farashin tallafin su: Ta hanyar sigogi zai zama zai yiwu a bincika ƙimar da ke cikin wannan halin, don daga baya a siyar da su a cikin yankin juriya, ko kuma a yayin da masu tallafi suka karye. Yana daya daga cikin mafi sauki dabarun da ake amfani dasu a kasuwar hada-hadar hannayen jari, kodayake saboda wannan ya zama dole a ci gaba da bin diddigin sauye-sauyen farashin yan takarar da zasu iya zama wani bangare na jakar kudaden tsaro.
Amintattun abubuwan da suka faɗi ƙasa: Yana daya daga cikin kyakkyawan yanayin ga duk mai saka hannun jari wanda dole ne yayi ma'amala da sayayya, kodayake yana da babbar illa cewa yana da matukar wahala ga masu tanadin kiri su gano wannan ainihin abin kuma dole ne manyan masu shiga tsakani su taimaka musu. ko dillalai kudi, wanda aka buga a cikin kafofin watsa labarai na musamman. Kafin hawa mukamai a cikin tsaro, yana da kyau kayi nazarin fannin fasaha da asali.