VIX shine lambar don hukuma da ake kira Chicago Board Zabuka Musayar Kasuwancin Canjin Yanayi (a cikin Mutanen Espanya: Chicago PUT zaɓin kasuwar canje-canje na kasuwa). VIX yana nuna alamar rashin dacewar zaɓuɓɓuka akan index na tsawon kwanaki 30, saboda wannan ana lissafin shi ta hanyar ɗaukar nauyin nauyi na rashin tasirin kira na OEX takwas da sanya zaɓuɓɓuka (S&P 500 zaɓuɓɓuka).
Lokacin da muke da ƙaramin VIX index, yana nufin cewa sauƙin yana da ƙasa sosai sabili da haka babu tsoro a cikin kasuwa, wanda yasa hannayen jari ke ci gaba da tashi da tsoro. Babban digo a hannun jari yazo lokacin da VIX yayi ƙasa sosai kuma ya fara tashi. Babu cikakken adadi da zai nuna idan VIX yayi girma ko ƙasa, amma manazarta da yawa sunce a VIX da ke ƙasa 20 yana nufin akwai kyakkyawan fata da shakatawa a cikin kasuwanni yayin da VIX sama da 30 na nufin cewa akwai tsoro a cikin kasuwar kuma dole ne mu yi taka tsantsan da ayyukanmu.
Abinda kawai ke ci gaba a cikin kasuwannin hannayen jari shine canji. A takaice dai, sauyin yanayi aboki ne na yau da kullun ga masu saka jari. Tun lokacin da aka gabatar da bayanan na VIX, tare da makomar da zaɓuɓɓukan da za a bi, masu saka hannun jari suna da zaɓi na cinikin wannan matakin na ra'ayin masu saka hannun jari game da canjin can gaba.
Menene hanyoyin kasuwanci da VIX?
A lokaci guda, da fahimtar rashin daidaituwa tsakanin rashin daidaituwa da aikin kasuwar hannayen jari, yawancin masu saka jari sun nemi yin amfani da kayan aiki don yin shinge ga ma'aikatun su. Fahimtar hanyoyi daban-daban na aiki akan VIX dole ne kuyi la'akari da farkon farawa. A wannan ma'anar, muhimmin mahimmanci a cikin kimantawa da kuɗin musanya (ETFs) da bayanan musayar musayar (ETNs) waɗanda ke da alaƙa da VIX kanta. VIX alama ce da ke nuni da Boardididdigar Voarfafa Yanayin Kasuwar Zaɓuɓɓuka ta Chicago. Kodayake galibi ana gabatar da ita azaman manunin kasuwar kasuwar hannun jari (kuma wani lokacin ana kiranta "Fihirisar Tsoro") ba cikakke cikakke ba ne.
Fihirisar Volatility
Tun lokacin da aka gabatar da Fihirisar Kasuwancin Zaɓuɓɓuka na Zaɓuɓɓuka na Chicago (VIX), masu saka jari sun yi ciniki da wannan ma'auni na ra'ayin masu saka jari kan fa'idar nan gaba. Babban hanyar aiki da VIX shine siyan kuɗin musanya (ETFs) da kuma bayanan musayar musayar (ETNs) waɗanda aka ɗaura da VIX kanta.
Akwai shahararrun ETFs da ETNs waɗanda suke da alaƙa da VIX, gami da iPath S & P 500 VIX (VXX) Futures na gajeren lokaci ETN da VelocityShares Daily Two-Times VIX (TVIX) na gajeren lokaci ETN. VIX haɗuwa ce mai nauyin farashin haɗin zaɓin S&P 500, wanda daga ciki ne ake samun canjin yanayin. A cikin sauƙaƙan lafazi, VIX da gaske yana auna yadda mutane suke son biya don siye ko siyar da S&P 500, kuma mafi yawan shirye-shiryen biya suna nuna ƙarin rashin tabbas.
Wannan ba samfurin Makarantar baƙar fata ba ne, VIX yana da fa'ida ta "ma'ana". Abin da ya fi haka, yayin da VIX galibi ake tattaunawa akan madaidaiciya, babu ɗayan ETFs ko ETNs da ke can da ke wakiltar tasirin tabo na VIX. Madadin haka, tarin tarin abubuwan rayuwar VIX ne masu zuwa kusan kimanta aikin VIX.
Zaɓuɓɓuka da yawa
Mafi girman kuma mafi nasara samfurin VIX shine iPath S & P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN. Wannan ETN yana da tsayi a cikin watan farko da na biyu VIX kwangila na gaba waɗanda ke yaɗa kowace rana. Saboda akwai jarin inshora akan kwangiloli na dogon lokaci, VXX yana fuskantar mummunan aiki (asalima, wannan yana nufin masu riƙe da dogon lokaci zasu ga hukunci akan dawowa).
Saboda sauyin yanayi abu ne na sauya fasalin kafofin watsa labaru, VXX yakan yi ciniki sama da yadda yakamata yayin lokutan rashin daidaituwa na yanzu (farashi a cikin tsammanin babban tashin hankali) da ƙasa a lokacin lokutan babban tashin hankali na yanzu.
IPath S&P 500 VIX Medium Term Futures ETN (ARCA: VXZ) suna da tsari kwatankwacin VXX, amma suna riƙe da matsayi a na huɗu, na biyar, na shida da na bakwai masu zuwa VIX. Sakamakon haka, wannan yafi ƙimar canjin can gaba kuma yana da sauƙi ya zama wasa mara saurin canzawa akan canji. Wannan ETN galibi yana da matsakaiciyar tsawon kusan watanni biyar kuma wannan aiki mara kyau yana amfani da shi - idan kasuwa ta kasance mai karko kuma rashin ƙarfi ya yi ƙasa, ƙididdigar rayuwa ta gaba zata rasa kuɗi.
Cinikin ciniki
Ga masu saka jari da ke neman ƙarin haɗari, akwai ƙarin hanyoyin da za a ba su. Ean gajeren lokaci ETN VelocityShares Daily sau biyu VIX (ARCA: TVIX) yana ba da ƙarin kuzari fiye da VXX, kuma wannan yana nufin dawowa mafi girma lokacin da VIX ya tashi.
A gefe guda kuma, wannan ETN yana da matsala iri ɗaya ta birgima tare da batun fitowar rashin ƙarfi - saboda haka wannan saye ne mai tsada da riƙe matsayi har ma da takardar samfurin Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) a TVIX ta ce "idan kun riƙe ETN ɗinku a matsayin saka hannun jari na dogon lokaci, da alama za ku rasa duka ko kuma wani bangare na jarin ku. "
Koyaya, akwai kuma ETFs da ETN don masu saka hannun jari waɗanda ke neman wasa dayan gefen tsabar canjin yanayi. Gajeren lokacin ETN iPath Inverse S&P 500 VIX (ARCA: XXV) yana neman yin kwaikwayon aikin gajarta VXX, yayin da gajeren gajeren lokaci ETN VIX Daily Inverse VIX (ARCA: XIV) kamar yadda yake neman aikin gajere. matsakaicin nauyi na VIX na wata mai zuwa.
Hattara da bata lokaci
Masu saka jari da ke la'akari da wadannan ETFs da ETNs ya kamata su fahimci cewa su ba manyan wakilai bane don aikin VIX. A zahiri, lokacin nazarin lokutan rashin daidaituwa a cikin S&P 500 SPDR (ARCA: SPY) da canje-canje a cikin tabo na VIX, wakilan ETN na wata ɗaya sun kama kusan kashi ɗaya cikin huɗu zuwa rabi na ƙungiyoyin VIX na yau da kullun, yayin matsakaici- Lokacin samfura sun ma fi muni.
TVIX, tare da tasirin bugun jini biyu, ya fi kyau (daidai da kusan rabin zuwa kashi uku bisa huɗu na dawowa), amma a koyaushe yana samar da ƙasa da ninki biyu na dawowar kayan aikin wata guda na yau da kullun. Bugu da ƙari kuma, saboda rashin daidaituwar daidaituwa da ɓarna a cikin wannan ETN, gaskiyar cewa ya yi tsayi da yawa bayan lokutan fa'idar ya fara ɓarkewa sosai.
Idan masu sa hannun jari suna son yin fare akan fa'idar kasuwar hannun jari ko amfani da shi azaman shinge, samfuran ETF da ETN da suka danganci VIX karɓaɓɓe ne amma kayan aiki masu kuskure. Tabbas suna da ingantacciyar hanyar dacewa a gare su, yayin da suke kasuwanci kamar kowane samfurin.
Sanya kwarewar kasuwancin ku ga gwaji tare da na'urar kwaikwayo ta jari don tabbatar da kasuwanci. Gasa tare da dubban yan kasuwa da kuma sasanta hanyar zuwa saman nasara! Kasuwanci na yanzu a cikin yanayi mai kyau kafin fara riskar kuɗin ku. Yi dabarun ciniki don lokacin da kuka shirya shiga kasuwar ta ainihi, kun sami aikin da kuke buƙata.
Optionsididdigar Boardididdigar Boardididdigar Boardididdigar Boardididdigar Boardididdigar Boardididdigar Boardididdigar Boardididdigar Chicagoididdigar Chicagoungiyar Chicago (VIX index) ta jawo hankalin yan kasuwa da masu saka hannun jari saboda sau da yawa yakan yi yawa yayin da kasuwannin daidaito na Amurka suka faɗi. An san shi azaman mitar tsoro, lissafin VIX yana nuni da hangen nesa na kasuwa don canjin farashin hannun jari, kamar yadda aka samo daga farashin zaɓi na S&P 500.
Kasuwa nan gaba
Kalubale shine cewa masu saka jari ba za su iya samun damar bayanan VIX ba. Ta wannan hanyar, VIX ETFs suna wanzu, amma a zahiri suna biye da alamun VIX na nan gaba, wanda ke haifar da manyan ƙalubale 2:
VIX ETFs basa nuna alamun VIX. Ta kowane ma'auni, alamun VIX na nan gaba, sabili da haka VIX ETFs, suna yin aiki mai ban ƙyama na kwaikwayon ƙididdigar VIX. Lissafin VIX a zahiri ba za'a iya jujjuya shi ba, kuma a cikin tsawon wata daya ko shekara, tsarin dawowar VIX ETFs zai sha bamban da na VIX.
VIX ETFs sukan rasa kuɗi, mahimman kuɗi, na dogon lokaci… VIX ETFs suna kan rahamar lanƙwasa na gaba VIX, wanda suka dogara da shi don fallasawa. Saboda yanayin yanayin ƙirar yana da ƙarfi (tabo), VIX ETFs suna ganin matsayinsu ya ragu a kan lokaci. Raguwar fallasa su ya ba su kuɗi kaɗan don matsawa zuwa kwangila na gaba lokacin da na yanzu ya ƙare. Tsarin sannan ya maimaita kansa, wanda ke haifar da asara mai lambobi biyu a tsawon shekara guda. Wadannan kudaden kusan a koda yaushe suna asarar kudi a cikin dogon lokaci.
A cikin duniyar gaske, yan kasuwa suna zama a cikin VIX ETFs na kwana 1, ba shekara 1 ba. VIX ETFs kayan aiki ne na ɗan gajeren lokaci da tradersan kasuwa ke amfani dasu. Kayayyaki kamar VXX
ETNs ruwa ne mai ban mamaki, galibi suna ciniki fiye da dukiyar da ke ƙarƙashin sarrafawa, ko AUM, a cikin ranakun ciniki na 1 ko 2. Yan kasuwa suna yin hasashe akan VIX ETFs saboda suna bayar da mafi kyawun (ko mafi ƙarancin hanya) na isa zuwa layin VIX a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci. Abin da ake kira "gajeren lokaci" VIX ETFs suna ba da ƙwarewar kwana 1 mafi kyau ga bayanin VIX fiye da "matsakaiciyar lokaci" VIX ETFs.
Ma'amaloli a cikin kudaden da aka yi musayar su
VIX ETFs ba ETF bane a cikin mahimmancin ma'ana. Sun zo ne a cikin ETNs ko kuma tsarin kayan kwalliyar samfur, ba kamar kuɗaɗen haɗin gwiwar gargajiya ba. ETNs suna ɗaukar haɗarin takamaiman (yawanci ƙasa) na bayar da bankuna, yayin da ake bayar da kuɗaɗen haɗin kai a lokacin haraji.
VIX ETF sun zo cikin dandano ban da tsarkakakken wasan da aka bayyana a sama. VIX overlay ETFs suna riƙe da manyan matsayin daidaito da rufewa na bayyanar VIX. Manufarta ita ce ta iyakance haɗarin faɗuwar haja, amma ko dai ɗauka ko ƙoƙarin rage tsadar farashi na dogon lokaci ga rayuwar VIX.
Don haka a ƙarshe, idan kuna neman fallasawa ga VIX na 'yan kwanaki, akwai samfuran da ke wurin don ku, amma wataƙila fiye da kowane ɓangaren kasuwar ETF - mai saye ya yi hankali!
VIX shine ma'auni na canjin canjin da ake tsammani a kasuwar hannun jari ta Amurka cikin kwanaki 30 masu zuwa. Kamfanin CBOE Global Markets ne ke sarrafa shi bisa ƙimar kira daban-daban kuma sanya zaɓuɓɓuka masu alaƙa da alamun S&P 500.
Zaɓuɓɓukan kira suna ba da damar wani ya sayi haja ko wata kadara a wani farashin, da ake kira farashin yajin aiki, a wani lokaci. Sanya zaɓuɓɓuka suna baka damar siyar da hannun jari ko kadara a farashin yajin aiki a wani takamaiman lokaci.
Zaɓuɓɓukan kira, waɗanda ke ɗauke da suna daga kira don isar da kadarar, hauhawa a kan darajar lokacin da ƙimar kadara ta fi yuwuwa ko ake tsammanin za ta wuce farashin yajin aiki, saboda suna ba ku damar siyan hajar a kan farashin ciniki. Akasin haka, sanya zaɓuɓɓuka sun tashi cikin darajar lokacin da farashin kadara zai iya zama ƙasa da farashin yajin aiki, tunda duk wanda yake da zaɓuɓɓukan zai iya siyar da kadarar fiye da ƙimar shi.
Za'a iya amfani da zaɓin zaɓi yadda yakamata don ɗaukar ra'ayin masu saka jari game da sauye-sauye na gaba a cikin S&P 500. Wannan matakin an fi saninsa da Wall Street Tsoron Mita, yayin da yake tashi yayin da mutane ke tsammanin canji mai kaifi a farashin. Na hannun jari wanda zai iya sa shi wahala saka hannun jari maimakon tashin hankali, faduwa, ko tabarbarewa a farashi.
Juyin Halitta na VIX
VIX an fara haɓaka ne a farkon shekarun 90 bisa lafazin S&P 100. Ba daidai ba ne a zahiri a ce VIX ta taɓa samun tayin jama'a na farko, tunda ba haja ce da ta wuce tsarin IPO., Amma Bayanin ya fara halarta a karon farko a shekarar 1993.
Tun daga wannan lokacin, ya samo asali a cikin wasu fasahohin fasaha don mafi kyawun canjin kasuwa a nan gaba, kuma a yau ya dogara ne da ƙididdigar S&P 500. Wannan ɗan littafin yana bin diddigin ayyukan manyan kamfanonin Amurka 500 na Amurka akan kasuwar hannun jari kuma, A cikin kansa, shi ne galibi ana ganinsa a matsayin mai nuna yawan kasuwancin gabaɗaya kuma shine tushe don yawancin lambobi waɗanda ke ba masu ba da izini damar ƙoƙarin cin gajiyar ƙimar gaba ɗaya a farashin kasuwar hannayen jari.
CBOE ya kuma gabatar da wasu fizge-fizgen da yawa, gami da gajeren gajeren lokaci mai saurin canzawa wanda ake kira VXST, wanda ya dogara ne da nazarin kwanaki tara na canjin yanayin S&P 500. Wani bayanin, S & P 3-Month Volatility Index 500, ko VXV, yana da hangen nesa, kuma S & P 6 500-Month Volatility Index, ko VXMT, yana kallon taga mafi tsayi.
Sauran ƙididdigar canjin kuɗi na CBOE suna kallon aikin hannun jari a cikin ƙididdigar banda S&P 500. Misali, ƙididdigar ƙididdigar ta hanyar CBOE ta dogara ne da ƙididdigar fasahar Nasdaq-100 mai ƙarfi, sanannen Dow Industrial Average. Jones da Russell 2000 Index , wanda ke mai da hankali kan kamfanoni 2.000 tare da ɗan ƙaramin ƙarami, ko cikakken darajar kasuwa.
A tarihi, yayin yanayin kasuwa na yau da kullun, VIX ya kasance a cikin shekaru ashirin, kodayake an san shi zuwa sama ko kusa da 100 a yayin al'amuran kasuwannin tarihi daban-daban kamar rikicin kuɗi na 2008. Lokacin da VIX ke cinikin ƙasa da 20 yana al'ada gani a matsayin wata alama ta rashin tasirin canjin kasuwa.
Cinikin VIX
Kalmar ciniki ta VIX tana nufin yin ma'amala ta kuɗi inda za'a sami kuɗi ko ɓacewa dangane da hanyar VIX. Wato, da gaske kuna yin tsinkaya game da ƙaruwa ko raguwar canjin kasuwa kuma kuna shirin yin kuɗi ko asara idan wannan hasashen ya zama gaskiya.
Akwai hanyoyi da yawa don kasuwanci dangane da tsammanin ku ga VIX kuma zaku iya siyar dasu bisa bukatunku a cikin duniyar saka hannun jari. Inda ba koyaushe zasu zama iri ɗaya a kowane yanayi da yanayi ba. Don haka a ƙarshe zaku iya samun sakamakon da kuke tsammani a cikin kowane ɗawainiyar a kasuwannin daidaito daga yanzu. Kullum ana ganinsa a matsayin alamar ƙananan canjin kasuwa.