Matsin lamba don raguwar ƙimar amfani a Amurka

A wannan makon za a yi taron da aka daɗe ana jira a Babban Asusun Tarayyar Amurka (FED) inda za a iya saukar da kuɗin ruwa. Wannan aƙalla nufin shugaban Amurka na yanzu kenan. Donald trump wanda ke matsa lamba don ganin an aiwatar da wannan matakin. A lokacin da gajimare mai duhu ke kunno kai a kan tattalin arzikin duniya kuma duk da kyakkyawan yanayin tattalin arzikin a Amurka. Ala kulli halin, a ƙarshen mako za a yanke shawara, ta hanya ɗaya ko wata.

Zai zama ƙuduri wanda zai sami tasiri kai tsaye kan kasuwannin daidaito. Dukansu a gefe ɗaya da ɗayan Tekun Atlantika kuma daga gare ta dubbai da dubunnan ƙanana da matsakaitan masu saka jari za su jira. Domin yanke shawara akan yakamata su buɗe ko rufe wurare a cikin kasuwanni daban-daban. Daidai a lokacin da hannayen jari a duk duniya zasu iya juya halin su na yanzu. Tare da shi zai zama dole a canza dabarun saka hannun jari don inganta ayyuka.

A gefe guda, ya kamata a lura cewa wannan shawarar ta Federalasar Tarayyar Amurka (FED) na iya yin tasiri manufofin kuɗi na yankin euro. Kodayake a wannan ma'anar, sun riga sun nuna cewa yawan kuɗin ruwa ba zai canza ba, aƙalla har zuwa farkon rabin shekara mai zuwa. Saboda rashin kyakkyawan fata na bunkasar tattalin arziki a yankin Euro na 'yan shekaru masu zuwa. Inda farashin kuɗi yake a ƙananan matakansa a cikin recentan shekarun nan, dai-dai a 0%. Wato, kuɗi ba shi da daraja komai kuma wannan wani abu ne wanda shima yana da tasiri a kan ƙimar jari.

Arin kuɗi a Amurka

A wannan ma'anar, dole ne a tuna cewa Amurka ta ɗaga darajar ribarta da maki 0,25, daga 2% zuwa 2,25% kowace shekara kana cikin halin yanzu. Matsakaicin riba shine ɗayan manyan kayan aikin bankunan da ke hannun su don aiwatar da manufofin kuɗin su. Daga cikin wasu dalilai, saboda hauhawar farashin ruwa yana taimakawa ne don dakile hauhawar farashin kaya da kare kudin, tsakanin sauran ayyuka. Saboda haka mahimmancin matakin da Babban Asusun Tarayyar Amurka zai iya ɗauka a wannan makon.

Ba za a iya mantawa cewa wannan bambancin shi ne na farko da ya fara faruwa tun 27 ga Satumba, 2018, lokacin da Babban Bankin ya kara kudin ruwa da maki 0,25, ya kai matakin 2%. Idan fadada cikin kudin ruwa ana iya ɗaukarsa a zafin kwata don komawa zuwa matakan 2%. Ba a tsammanin yanke manyan abubuwa saboda ƙarancin matsakaita da matsakaitan masu saka jari na iya karɓar su sosai. Musamman saboda hakan zai nuna cewa koma bayan tattalin arziki na iya zama mai rauni fiye da yadda manazarta harkokin kuɗi ke tsammani.

Ta yaya zai yi tasiri ga kasuwar hannun jari?

Ofaya daga cikin abubuwan da suka fi damuwa da ƙanana da matsakaitan masu saka jari shine tasirin wannan ƙimar kuɗin a kasuwannin daidaito. A wannan ma'anar, komai yana nuna cewa ba zai sami tasirin tashin hankali ba a kan manyan alamun kasuwar kasuwar hannun jari a duk duniya. Wataƙila a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci wasu ƙungiyoyi, masu siye ko masu siyarwa, na iya haɓaka don dawowa cikin al'ada a cikin kwanaki masu zuwa. Inda, sake, yana iya zama ƙimomin banki mafi muni a cikin kasuwar duniya. A cikin shekarar da suka baro a baya da sauran bangarorin kasuwanci, kamar wutar lantarki.

Duk da yake a ɗaya hannun, ya zama dole a jaddada cewa ɓangaren hada-hadar kuɗi yana nuna farashi a kusan ƙarancin tarihi. Amma zai iya zama babban kuskure ga buɗe matsayi saboda farashin su na iya zuwa ƙasa da yadda suke a yanzu. Daga wannan ra'ayi, ba za a iya cewa farashinsu ba shi da arha ba a yanayin duniya na yanzu. Ba a banza ba, akwai da yawa tambayoyin da za'a warware daga yanzu. Kuma saboda wannan dalilin babu wani zaɓi face rashin kasancewa daga matsayin su aƙalla na tsawon watannin da suka rage har zuwa ƙarshen shekara.

San sakamako kaɗan

A ka'ida, faduwar darajar kudin ruwa ta Babban Asusun Tarayyar Amurka na iya yin tasiri matsakaici bullish a cikin kasuwannin adalci. Amma tare da iyakantaccen lokacin tunda za'a iya rage shi zuwa sessionsan zaman zaman ciniki kaɗan kuma kaɗan. Sai dai idan faɗuwar farashin a Amurka yana tare da ƙarfin da manyan masu nazarin kuɗi ba su hango. A halin da yake ciki, babu shakka cewa wani yanayin da ya sha bamban da wanda aka ambata a cikin wannan bayanin zai faru.

Akwai ƙa'idar zinariya a cikin kasuwannin hannayen jari wanda ke faɗi cewa faɗuwar darajar riba ta fi dacewa da hauhawar kasuwannin hada-hada. Daga cikin wasu dalilai, saboda akwai mafi girman kuɗi don yin saka hannun jari a cikin dukiyar kuɗi daban-daban. Daga cikin su, siye da siyar da hannayen jari a kasuwar hannayen jari. Wanne ne, bayan duk, menene sha'awar ƙananan da matsakaitan masu saka jari. Sama da sauran jerin abubuwan la'akari da fasaha kuma watakila ma daga mahangar abubuwan asali na ƙimar kasuwannin hannun jari.

Canja yanayin a cikin fihirisa

Ko ta yaya, komai yana nuna cewa akwai canji a cikin kasuwannin daidaito a duniya. Don tafiya daga bullish zuwa bearish, kamar yadda wasu alamun alamun mahimmanci na musamman ke nunawa. Zai zama damar girbe fa'idodi ga mutanen da suke da hannun jari a cikin ƙasa mai kyau. Musamman dangane da isowar hutun bazara na gaba. Bayan 'yan watanni waɗanda tabbas ba su da matukar damuwa ga haɓakar haɓaka a cikin alamun ƙididdiga don haɓaka. Idan ba akasin haka ba, kamar yadda ya faru a shekarun baya.

Yayin da yake ɗayan ɗayan, dole ne mu kuma dogara da bayyananniyar jinkirin da ke akwai a cikin manyan tattalin arziƙin duniya. Abun mamaki ne sosai yadda hannayen jari suka kasance a irin wannan matakin a farkon rabin wannan shekarar. Inda, misali, Ibex 35 har yanzu yana tsaye sama da maki 9.000 kuma tare da karamin kimantawa a wannan shekarar. Duk da faduwa a cikin 'yan makonnin nan daga juriya wanda ke da maki 9.400 da maki 9.500.

Gano don hannun jari na tsaro

Dangane da ra'ayin kyakkyawan ɓangare na masu nazarin harkokin kuɗi, komai yana nuna cewa a ƙarshe hanyar ƙasa za ta iya zama ƙuduri a cikin kasuwannin daidaito. A saboda wannan dalilin suna ba da shawarar daukar mukami a ciki mafi ƙimar kariya cewa zasu iya ɗaukar kyakkyawan hali fiye da na sauran. A kowane hali, komai yana nuna cewa juyawar ƙasa alama ce ta kwanaki, makonni ko wataƙila 'yan watanni. Dogaro da yawancin masu canji da za a iya haɓaka daga waɗannan ƙayyadaddun lokacin kuma wannan zai zama waɗanda zasu ƙayyade ƙarfin waɗannan motsi a cikin kasuwannin kuɗi.

Ba kuma za a iya mantawa da cewa haƙƙin jihar ya kasance a kowane lokaci ba har zuwa fewan kwanakin da suka gabata. A karkashin wani uptrend hakan ya fara ne a shekarar 2013 kuma hakan bai daina tashi a wannan dogon lokacin ba. Duk da cewa an yi gyara mai ma'ana dangane da farashin su.

Batun tsaro a cikin yankin Euro

Yawan ci gaban shekara-shekara na fitaccen daidaitaccen tsarin lamunin bashin da mazaunan yankin kudin Yuro suka bayar shi ne 2,3 a watan Afrilun 2019, idan aka kwatanta da 2,4% a watan Maris, a cewar Bankin na Spain. Duk da yake a ɗaya hannun, kuma game da ƙididdigar ƙididdigar ƙididdigar hannun jarin da mazaunan yankin euro suka bayar, ƙimar Girman YoY ya ragu daga 0,4% rajista a cikin Maris 2019 zuwa 0% a cikin Afrilu.

Gaggawar bayar da basussukan bashi daga mazauna yankin na Yuro ya kai biliyan 634,5 2019 a cikin watan Afrilu na 650,8. Amortizations sun kasance € 16,2 biliyan kuma batutuwan sun kasance -2,3 biliyan biliyan. Yawan ci gaban shekara-shekara na fitaccen adadin lamunin bashin da mazaunan yankin euro suka bayar ya tsaya a 2019% a cikin Afrilu 2,4, idan aka kwatanta da 1,8% a watan Maris. A ciki, yawan bambancin ra'ayi na daidaitaccen ma'auni na lamunin bashi na dogon lokaci a ƙimar canjin canji ya tsaya a -2019% a watan Afrilu 2,7, idan aka kwatanta da -XNUMX% da aka yi rajista a watan Maris. Adadin na Girman YoY ya ragu daga 0,4% rajista a cikin Maris 2019 zuwa 0% a cikin Afrilu.


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