Ofaya daga cikin abubuwan da za su fi tasiri ga haɓakar kasuwannin daidaiton ƙasashe shine babu shakka takaddama tsakanin Amurka da China. Har zuwa ma'anar cewa abu ne mai matukar dacewa don ƙididdigar hannun jari ta duniya don sauka ko sama a cikin zaman ciniki ɗaya. Ba abin mamaki ba ne cewa babban dalilin wannan sabon tashin hankalin da zai shafi shekarar 2020 shi ne sabon rikicin da Amurka ke fuskanta da China, kuma a wannan karon saboda kokarin da gwamnatin Beijing ke yi ne na aiwatar da dokokin da ke takaita 'yancin mutum a Hong Kong.
Sakamakon farko na wannan tasirin shine na kasuwar kuɗin duniya. Kuma me ya jawo masazuwa guda kudin, Yuro, a wannan lokacin yana riƙe da sautin ɗaukar nauyi, kuma zai iya ci gaba a wannan hanyar daga fewan watanni masu zuwa. Inda ya kamata a lura cewa ƙasa da aka faɗi matakin yanayin ƙasa zai kasance a bayyane sosai sabili da haka ba zai zama kadarar kuɗi don aiwatar da ayyuka a kasuwannin kuɗi ba. A kowane hali, komai yana nuna cewa wannan yanayin ne wanda tabbas za a iya kiyaye shi muddun takaddamar tsakanin Amurka da China ta yi aiki.
Kada a manta da wannan ɓangaren ta ƙananan da matsakaitan masu saka hannun jari idan suna son kada raunin darajar kuɗi ya taɓa su. Musamman, saboda tsananin tasirinta a wannan lokacin, wanda aka haɗe tare da faɗaɗa coronavirus kuma wanda yana iya zama tushen damuwa ga yawancin 'yan kasuwar. Kodayake yana iya kasancewa wani yanayi ne da za a iya dakatar da shi a kowane lokaci a wannan shekarar kuma ya danganta da sakamakon tattaunawar a rikicin da ke tsakanin Amurka da China. Babu yadda za a yi ya zama madadin saka hannun jari ga saye da sayar da hannayen jari a kasuwar hannayen jari. Idan ba haka ba, akasin haka, zaɓi ne wanda yakamata a yi la'akari dashi a waje da irin wannan ayyukan a kasuwannin kuɗi. Tare da nazarin da ya banbanta da dukiyar kuɗi.
Rigima tsakanin Amurka da China: mai
Shakka babu cewa wannan babban kadara na kudi na daga cikin wadanda batun rikicin Amurka da China ya shafa. A wannan yanayin na musamman daga karuwar bukata daga China, wanda matakin shigowar sa ya dawo zuwa adadi kafin rikicin kiwon lafiya. A wannan yanayin, ba za a iya mantawa da cewa wannan mahimmin abu ya ɗan sami gyara a ƙasa a cikin 'yan makonnin nan, kodayake akasin haka yana riƙe sautin da ya wuce kima wanda zai iya zama mai ban sha'awa sosai don sa wadatar da ke akwai ta zama mai amfani. Wani abu wanda aka tanada don masu saka hannun jari waɗanda ke da matakin koyo mafi girma a wannan aji na ayyuka na musamman.
Yayin da yake ɗayan ɗayan, ba za mu iya mantawa ba a wannan lokacin cewa ɗanyen mai yana cikin wani yanayi mai matukar wahala wanda zai iya rikitarwa ƙungiyoyi a cikin wannan kasuwar kasuwancin har ma fiye da ta kasuwar canji ta canji. Ba tare da yanke hukunci ba ta kowace hanya da za a iya yin sabon gyaran ƙasa kafin fara daidaitaccen yanayin hawan sama zuwa 'yan shekaru masu zuwa. Kuma a kowane hali, zai dogara ne ta wata hanya ko ta yaya takaddamar da ke tsakanin Amurka da China ta tafi. Bayan wasu sharuɗɗan da ke da alaƙa da nazarin fasaha kuma saboda haka na iya canza dabarun saka hannun jari ta ƙanana da matsakaitan masu saka jari daga yanzu.
Zabe a cikin Amurka a cikin kaka
Bugu da kari, ba za a iya mantawa da cewa a cikin watannin karshe na wannan shekarar za a gudanar da zabuka a Amurka, inda Shugaba Donald Trump ke cikin rige-rigen sake zabensa kuma wannan gaskiyar na iya rage zaman tankiyar da ke tsakanin kasashen biyu. Har zuwa cewa tana taka rawa ta biyu a kasuwannin daidaito, musamman na Arewacin Amurka. A kowane hali, dole ne a hango cewa bayan sake dawo da ayyukanda na ƙwarewa bayan coronavirus yana da ma'ana sosai cewa kasuwar hannayen jari ta Amurka tana da sabon ja sama wanda zai iya haifar da ayyuka masu fa'ida ga duk masu saka hannun jari. Daga wannan ra'ayi, yana iya zama damar kasuwanci don shiga matsayi a cikin wannan kasuwar kasuwancin da ta dace. Tare da ainihin yiwuwar samun kusanci ga kowane lokaci wanda za'a iya cimmawa a ƙarshen Fabrairu.
Yayin da a gefe guda, zaɓen a cikin Amurka a cikin kaka sabon tallafi ne ga kasuwannin daidaiton ƙasashe don haɓaka daga yanzu. Musamman bayan asara mai nauyi da suka faru tare da yaduwar kwayar cutar corona a duniya. Tare da ragin darajar da suka kai sama da kashi 40% a cikin wasu ƙasashe waɗanda wannan cutar ta shafa masu mahimmancin mahimmanci a cikin tattalin arziƙin ƙasa da ƙasa. Har ya zuwa yanzu cewa ci gaban da jakunkuna suka nuna a farkon watanni biyu na wannan shekara ya karye sosai. Aƙalla game da matsakaici kuma musamman gajere. Tare da tallace-tallace da yawa ta ƙananan da matsakaitan masu saka jari saboda buƙatar saka hannun jari a cikin asusun ajiyar su a waɗancan lokuta.
Ingantaccen aikin kamfanonin fasaha
Wata hujja da dole ne a yi la'akari da ita daga wannan lokacin shine gaskiyar cewa ƙididdigar fasaha sun yi kyau fiye da na gargajiya a cikin wannan lokacin na musamman wanda duka muke da shi. Har zuwa batun cewa Nasdaq a cikin tsakiyar annobar ta sami damar daidaita kanta da kyau dangane da sauyin shekar ta a kasuwannin daidaito. A cikin wannan takamaiman lamarin, tare da ribar shekara-shekara sama da 1%, yayin da sauran alamun ƙididdigar kasuwar hannun jari suka faɗo zuwa 40% a cikin wasu kasuwannin ƙasashen duniya masu dacewa. A gefe guda, dole ne mu kuma jaddada gaskiyar cewa mafi kyawun ayyukan kamfanonin fasaha yana faruwa ne saboda kasancewar su kamfanoni waɗanda suka fi dacewa da bukatun sabis na ƙasashe a cikin wannan zamani na musamman.
Wani bangare da ya cancanci a yi la’akari da shi a wannan ɓangaren shi ne abin da ya shafi yanayin waɗannan kamfanonin kuma waɗanda suka fi amfani a cikin haɓakar coronavirus. Misali, yana da alaƙa da kayayyakin magunguna, nazarin asibiti da shakatawa da horo. A kowane yanayi tare da yabawa a cikin musayar hannayen jari na ƙasa da ƙasa sama da 10% kuma cewa ya kasance babbar dama ce ta kasuwanci ga kyakkyawan ɓangare na ƙanana da matsakaitan masu saka jari.
Ya fi kyau ga juyin halittar Dow Jones
Makomar ta gaba ta nuna raguwar faduwa a bude a cikin makonnin da suka gabata bayan da gwamnatin Trump ta matsa don toshe kayan masarufi zuwa babbar kamfanin sadarwar kasar China mai kamfanin China, wanda ya kasance a tsakiyar wata takaddama ta cinikin fasaha tsakanin Washington da Beijing. Ranar Alhamis, Matsakaicin Masana'antu na Dow Jones ya tashi da maki 377, ko 1,6%, bayan faduwa sama da maki 450 a zaman da ya gabata.
Gwamnati ta fada a ranar Juma'a cewa tallace-tallace na watan Afrilu sun fadi da kashi 16,4% yayin da ake rufe Coronavirus rufe shaguna a duk duniya. Ba abin mamaki bane, masana tattalin arziki sunyi tsammanin faduwar 12,3% bayan faduwar 8,3% a watan Maris. Nuna mummunan ra'ayi na fataucin a cikin duniyar Covid-19, kasancewa ɗayan abubuwan da ke wasa da mummunan rawar a kasuwannin daidaiton Amurka, aƙalla game da gajeren lokaci.
Nike zai rage tallace-tallace a cikin 2020
Dangane da wannan, Nike ta yi gargaɗin cewa rufe shagunan da ke da alaƙa da annoba a cikin kwata na yanzu zai cutar da kiri da sakamakon sayayyarsa. Takalmin wasan da mai yin tufafi ya ce kashi 100% na manyan Shagunan China sun sake buɗewa kuma tallace-tallace ta kan layi suna taimakawa wajen daidaita asarar tallace-tallace daga rufe shagunan. Yayin da a gefe guda, ya zama dole a rinjayi gaskiyar cewa Kasuwar Hannun Jari ta New York za ta buɗe ƙofofinta tana mai tuna wannan gaskiyar cewa za ta iya yin tasiri ga tattalin arziki a duk faɗin duniya, ba kawai a cikin Amurka ba. Musamman, Kasuwancin Kasuwancin New York ya tafi lantarki sosai watanni biyu da suka gabata bayan mutane biyu sun gwada tabbatacce game da shigowar kwayar cutar coronavirus. Ersungiyoyin da aka keɓance na kasuwa, waɗanda ke kula da kasuwancin kamfanoni 2.200 da aka jera a Kasuwar Hannun Jari ta New York, za su ci gaba da aiki daga nesa.
Shima mai yayi fice, wanda yake da alama ya shiga cikin ɗabi'u na gari, saboda karuwar buƙata daga China, wanda matakin shigo da kayayyaki ya komo adadi kafin rikicin kiwon lafiya. Rawan albarkatun kasa sun sha wahala matsakaici zuwa ƙasa a ranar Juma'a, kuma suna riƙe sautin da aka wuce kima a cikin awannin farko na mako. Muna fatan kara gyarawa zuwa ƙasa kafin fara cigaban zuwa sama.
An fara aiwatarwa a cikin 2018
Tun daga shekarar 2018, Amurka da China suka kakaba wasu matakai na takaita zirga-zirgar cinikayya tsakanin kasashen biyu, wanda karin kudaden fito ya kasance mafi shahara. Karin harajin da Amurka ta yi kan kayayyakin da kasar Sin ke shigowa da su ya sa kasar ta mayar da martani cikin sauri, wanda kuma ya kara harajin kan kayayyakin da Amurka ke shigowa da su. Kodayake rikicin kasuwanci ya bayyana yana kara kamari a daminar 2019 tare da karin kudin fito, amma a karshen shekarar 2019 kasashen biyu sun amince da sasantawa, tare da soke wasu karin kudin fito da aka sanar tare da mayar da wasu daga cikin karin harajin da ya gabata. Tsagaita wutar ya haifar da kiran
An sanya hannu kan Yarjejeniyar Mataki Na Daya a watan Janairun 2020. A cikin wannan takaddar tana nazarin tattalin arzikin rikicin ciniki, tattauna batun tattalin arzikin rikicin cinikayya, yana ba da bayyani game da matakai daban-daban da aka karba da binciko illolin, shiga tasirin da aka riga aka samar da tasirin da ake tsammani a nan gaba, ba da kulawa ta musamman ga illolin da za a iya samu ta hanyar rashin tabbas game da manufofin kasuwanci. Ana bincika tasirin tattalin arziki ta hanyar yin nazarin wallafe-wallafe da kuma yin nazarin kansu.
Don nazari, zamu binciki yadda kasuwancin kasuwanci tsakanin China da Amurka ya canza a cikin shekaru biyu da suka gabata kuma muna nazarin hanyoyin karkatar da kasuwancin. Don nazarin, WTO Global Trade Model (GTM), ana iya amfani da kuzari mai maimaitawa, ana amfani da samfurin daidaitawa gaba ɗaya (CGE). Akwai muhawara mai yawa kan illar da rikice-rikicen cinikayya ke haifarwa ga tattalin arzikin duniya saboda ƙaruwar rashin tabbas na manufofin kasuwanci da haɗa sabon tsarin alaƙar.
Yarjejeniya tsakanin Amurka da China
Tun daga farkon rikicin kasuwanci tsakanin Amurka da China kasashen biyu suka kara haraji kwata-kwata kan kayan da ake fitarwa daga kasashen, daga 2,6% zuwa 17,5% kan shigo da Sinawa zuwa Amurka kuma daga 6,2% zuwa 16,4% kan shigo da kaya daga Amurka zuwa China. Yarjejeniyar Phase 1 tsakanin Amurka da China sun rage haraji kan kayayyakin da China ke shigowa da su Amurka zuwa 16%. Don iyakance girman daftarin aiki. Yana mai da hankali kan rikicin kasuwanci tsakanin Amurka da China.
Haraji kan shigo da kasar Sin ya haifar da aƙalla muhawara huɗu:
Rashin daidaiton kasuwanci; sanya haraji ya zama mai saurin ramawa ne; dawo da ayyuka a bangaren masana'antu; magance manufofin kasar ta China tare da munanan abubuwa da suka salwanta kamar rashin kariyar mallakar fasaha, tallafi daga kamfanonin mallakin gwamnati, da kuma tura fasahar zamani. Dalilin tattalin arziki don mahawara uku na farko za'a tattauna dalla-dalla a cikin takaddar.
Aiwatar da haraji
Kodayake kasuwancin daga China zuwa Amurka har yanzu ya haɓaka a cikin 2018 saboda tsammanin rarraba kusan 7%, fitar da China zuwa Amurka ya faɗi ƙwarai a cikin farkon kashi uku na farkon 2019 game da kayayyakin kuɗin fito, da 13%. Fitar da kaya daga Amurka zuwa China ya faɗi da kusan kashi 1% a cikin 2018, yana haɓaka zuwa ragu da sama da 25% a cikin farkon kashi uku na farkon 2019.
Yayin da fitar da Sinawa zuwa Amurka har yanzu ya haɓaka a cikin 2018 da 7% saboda rarrabawar da ake tsammani, sun ragu a farkon kwatancen 2019 da 13%. Binciken ya kuma nuna cewa akwai gagarumar karkatar da fataucin zuwa kayan shigowa daga wasu abokan kasuwancin. Kasashe huɗu na Asiya ta Gabas (Japan, Koriya ta Kudu, Taiwan da Vietnam) sun fitar da ƙasa kaɗan zuwa China kuma ƙari zuwa Amurka, musamman a bangaren kayan lantarki.
Wannan yana nuna cewa sarƙoƙin ƙimar Gabas ta Tsakiya suna sake shiri don amsa rikicin kasuwanci. Tunani daga litattafan adabin tarihi har zuwa yanzu game da rikicin kasuwanci shi ne cewa an sami cikakken canji daga karin harajin shigo da kayayyaki na kasar Sin don shigo da farashi tare da harajin da aka hada.
Rage kasuwanci a ƙasashen biyu
Amurka ta fara kara haraji kan kayayyakin da ake shigowa da su daga China a watan Maris na 2018 kuma martanin gwamnatin China ya biyo baya jim kadan bayan haka. Yana nuna darajar kasuwancin da kowane ɗayan zagaye na ƙarin kuɗin fito ya shafa, yayin da a ɗaya hannun kuma ya nuna canjin matsakaicin farashin haraji kan kayayyakin da Amurka ke shigowa da su daga China da kuma shigo da China daga Amurka. Matakin karin kudin fito da ya shafi mafi yawan kasuwancin ya gudana ne a ranar 24 ga Satumba, 2018. Amurka ta tara ƙarin haraji na 10% kan kusan dala biliyan 200.000 na shigo da China, wanda ya karu zuwa 25% a ranar 10 ga Mayu, 2019.
Matsakaicin harajin da Amurka ta sanya wa kayayyakin da ake shigo da su daga China sun karu matuka tun daga farkon rikicin cinikayya, daga farashin harajin MFN na 2,6% zuwa na 17,5% na kudin fito a ranar 1 ga Satumba, 2019. Da farko, Amurka ta sanar da kara fadada na ƙarin farashin jadawalin kuɗin fito, wanda hakan zai kawo ƙarin haraji zuwa 24,4% a ranar 15 ga Disamba. Koyaya, saboda tsagaita wuta a cikin rikicin kasuwanci, ba a taɓa amfani da wannan haɓaka ba.
Yayin da a gefe guda, karuwar da ake tsammani ya kasance 20,7% na Disamba 2019, ba a aiwatar ba. A lokaci guda, China ta rage harajin MFN na sauran abokan huldar kasuwanci, wanda yayi daidai da matsakaicin farashin kwastam na kusan 5%. Don haka, matsakaita ana auna su kawai ta hanyar kasuwancin da ya shafi ƙarin haraji. Duk da yake a ƙarshe, dole ne a jaddada cewa a halin yanzu akwai babban muhawara game da tasirin tasirin rikice-rikicen kasuwanci ga tattalin arzikin duniya saboda ƙaruwar rashin tabbas na siyasa tsakanin ƙasashen biyu.