Shafin Buffet

Indexididdigar Buffet yana tsammanin raguwa a kasuwanni

Bayan rikicin da yake bugawa da nutsar da GDP na dukkan ƙasashe, hannun jari kamar sun dauki alkibla mai rikitarwa. "Ra'ayoyin" kuɗaɗen da Bankunan Babban Bankin ke yi kamar sun ƙarfafa dawo da kasuwannin hannayen jari. Koyaya, akwai muryoyi da yawa waɗanda aka ɗora faɗakarwa game da sabon abu har ma da rashin hankali game da waɗannan halayen. Idan ba haka ba, wasu bangarorin kamar sun murmure fiye da yadda ake tsammani, wasu kuma ba haka ba. Wannan nau'i na farfadowa ya sa wasu manazarta yin hasashen cewa murmurewar za ta kasance ta fasalin K, kuma ba a cikin L, V, ko yadda aka ba da shawarar wasu haruffa don bayyana yadda zai zo ba. A cikin hanyar K, an yi niyya ne don bayyana sararin samaniyar da zai wanzu tsakanin ɓangarorin, ɗayan waɗanda suka ci nasara shine ɓangaren fasaha. Amma wannan murmurewar gaskiya ce?

Yawancin mutanen da ke saka hannun jari, da masu nazarin fasaha da masu nazari na asali, sun rasa wasu halaye na takamaiman rukuni na hannun jari. Waɗannan suna game da wasu kamar Zoom Video Communications, wanda haɓakawarsa tun farkon shekarar wanda darajarsu ta kai $ 68 ya kai aan kwanakin da suka gabata $ 478 na kowane rabo, ƙãra dan kadan fiye da 600%. Wani babban misali shine Tesla, wanda kayan sa ya tashi daga $ 84 a farkon shekara (Raba ya haɗu) zuwa ciniki sama da $ 500 fewan kwanakin da suka gabata, haɓaka 500%. Me ke faruwa? Shin da gaske sun kasance masu nasara ko kuwa an cika musu rai? Ba tare da shiga cikin binciken kuɗi na kamfanonin da kasuwancin kasuwar hannayen jarinsu ya wuce matsakaita ba, za mu iya zaɓar samun ɗan hangen nesa game da inda kasuwannin suke. A saboda wannan za mu yi amfani da «Faxin abincin Buffet», wanda zamu tattauna a yau.

Menene Jerin Buffet?

Bayani game da abin da ke nuna alamar zabi da kanka

Mafi yawan alamomi a cikin Amurka duk sanannen ƙungiyar masu saka hannun jari sun san shi. Daga cikin su muna da Nasdaq 100, wanda ya hada da hannayen jari 100 masu mahimmanci a masana'antar kere kere, Dow Jones Industrial Average 30, wanda ke auna ci gaban manyan kamfanoni 30 masu iyaka a ciki, da S&P 500, inda ya kasance mafi wakiltar tattalin arzikin Arewacin Amurka da ƙungiyoyi wasu manyan kamfanoni 500. Koyaya, akwai wasu wasu fihirisa waɗanda ba sanannun sanannun su ba, amma basu da mahimmanci ga hakan. Indexididdigar da tsarin da za a ciro Buan Buffet ya dogara a kansa shine alamar Wilshire 5000.

Wilshire 5000 shine manunin da aka lissafa duk sanannun kamfanoni, ban da ADRs, iyakantattun kamfanoni da ƙananan kamfanoni. Ana iya samun sa a ƙarƙashin tikalar "W5000". Wilshire, shima ya sami kwarjini sosai kamar misalinsa. Duk wannan a cikin wani yanayi inda aka katse takunkumi, tsayawa a shaguna, da lalacewar tattalin arziki saboda katsewar yanayin tattalin arziki "na halitta". Duk waɗannan al'amuran da suka haifar da mahimmancin gaske ba raguwa ba cikin GDP na tattalin arziki daban-daban.

Batun da ya shafe mu a cikin wannan labarin kuma ya haifar da faɗakarwa shine da Buffet index, wanda ƙaddara rabo daga cikin jimlar babban jari na Wilshire 5000 zuwa GDP (Babban Samfuran Cikin Gida) na Amurka yana cikin manyan matakai. Don haka, wannan ɗan littafin yana aiki har zuwa yau a matsayin babban mai faɗi game da mahimman kasuwannin hannun jari. Misali, babban muhimmancin da ya ɗauka a cikin kumfa-kumfa. Don fahimtar ta, bari mu ga yadda ake lissafa shi.

Ta yaya ake lissafin Buffet Index?

Yadda ake Lissafi Buffet Index

Hanyar da ake lissafin Buffet Index abu ne mai sauqi qwarai da gaske. Labari ne game da ɗauka jimlar darajar kuɗin Wilshire 5000 kuma raba ta da GDP na Amurka. Lambar da aka samu shine yawan nuna dangantakar da aka faɗi, kuma don bayyana shi a matsayin kashi, wanda shine yadda ake bayarwa da gaske, ana ninka shi da 100.

Don fassara sakamakon daidai, dole ne mu fahimci abin da kashi ke gaya mana. Don samun jagora da / ko tunani, waɗannan alaƙar sun isa.

  • Kashi ƙasa da 60-55%. Zai iya nufin cewa jakankuna masu araha. Theananan kashi, mafi girman ƙimar da suke da shi.
  • Kashi kusan 75%. Ba mai tsada ko mai rahusa, shine matsakaicin tarihi. Kasuwa zata daidaita. Idan yanayin yana da kyau, hannun jari na iya yin tafiya zuwa sama a cikin wannan yanayin. A gefe guda kuma, idan muhalli ya zama mafi ƙiyayya, ƙananan farashin zai yiwu.
  • Yawan da ya fi 90-100%. Akwai wadanda suka fi son layin 90s, wasu kuma layin 100. Amma ta yaya za a iya gano shi, a cikin wadannan yanayin jakankuna sun fara tsada. Mafi girman kashi, ƙimar da suke da ita ba ta da yawa.

Lokacin da aka sami faɗuwar dot dot, jakunkunan sun kasance a 137% kuma sun faɗo zuwa 73% (matsakaicin tarihin da zamu iya cewa). A cikin rikicin kuɗi, hannayen jari sun kasance kusan kashi 105% kuma sun faɗo zuwa 57% (ma'ana, ba su da daraja).

Bayan tsinkaya… Ina muke yanzu?

Ina kasuwannin hannayen jari na duniya zasu tafi?

Wilshire 5000 yana da haɓaka kusan $ tiriliyan 34 yanzu. A 'yan kwanakin da suka gabata ma ya sami sama da tiriliyan 36! Wannan a mahangar GDP na Amurka wanda a halin yanzu saboda faduwar tattalin arziki ne a tiriliyan 19 ya bamu darajar 174% (tiriliyan 34 wanda aka raba tiriliyan 19 ya ninka 5). Shin An chaara Kimar Hanyoyin Haja? Amsar a priori kuma ba tare da wata shakka ba zata zama eh. Ba a taɓa ba, koda a cikin dot-com kumfa tare da kimantawa kusa da 137%, sun isa rikodin na yanzu na 174%. Menene ke faruwa kuma menene zamu iya tsammanin?

Gaskiya, bayan shekaru da yawa na saka hannun jari, wani lokacin mawuyacin abu ne don hango abin da zai faru, amma idan hakan ta faru, koyaushe muna da wani wuri don nema. Abu ne mai yuwuwa cewa jerin abubuwan Buffet suna mana gargaɗi, kamar yadda yake a lokutan baya, na faduwar kasuwar hannun jari nan gaba. Koyaya, bayyanar sabon ƙarni na masu saka jari da masu zato, wanda a halin yanzu aka sani da Robinhood saboda bayyanar aikace-aikacen da ke ba da damar saka hannun jari a farashi mai sauƙi, ko ta yaya zai iya daidaita yanayin kasuwancin kasuwanni. Wannan, wanda ya kara yawan shigar da kudade zuwa kasuwanni da tattalin arziki daga Babban Bankin, ya kuma haifar da damuwa game da hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, wanda idan matsawa zuwa tattalin arzikin zai kara hauhawa, rage alakar da ke tsakanin GDP da hada-hadar kasuwa.


Abubuwan da ke cikin labarin suna bin ka'idodinmu na ka'idojin edita. Don yin rahoton kuskure danna a nan.

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